Saturday, May 28, 2005 
(6:50 a.m. EDT)

 "Digesting The Preakness"
  
  
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

 
 The System Toteboard Gives You The Advantage 

It is time to revisit the heart and soul of horse race betting, and the heart and soul is value, and value may or may not be present in a race.

Jim Lambert, the founder of Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com, developed the "System Toteboard" to identify value and expose underlays.  The methodology is based on the science of mathematical statistics, and it is detailed in the new book "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century."

Before we talk about the Preakness, here is a simple tutorial on the "System Toteboard."

The Lambert Racing Weekly newsletter displays for some races the System Toteboard towards the bottom of the newsletter.  No one except Horse-Race-Handicapping.com offers this unique tool.  This is your key to understanding value.  You simply follow the steps below.

Step 1.  At 5 minutes to post, compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the odds on the Track/OTB Toteboard. 

Step 2.  Copy down the program number, System Toteboard odds, and Track/OTB odds of every horse having Track/OTB odds higher than the System Toteboard odds. 

Step 3. Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract the System Toteboard odds from the Track/OTB odds.  Now divide the result by the System Toteboard odds.  Copy this number down for each horse.

Step 4.  List the horses from Step 3 from the largest number down to the smallest number. 

Step 5.  Bet $2 (or more if within your budget) on the top three horses from Step 4. 

Here is how subscribers used the System Toteboard from the Lambert Racing Weekly newsletter from Saturday, April 23, 2005, which covered the Lexington Stakes.

Here is the 2005 Coolmore Lexington Stakes field:

#1 ACTEXECUTIVE
#2 COIN SILVER
#3 STORM SURGE
#4 GOING WILD
#5 ROCKPORT HARBOR
#6 SORT IT OUT
#7 SKYE’N THUNDER
#8 FOREVER WILD
 
 Step 1.  Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the odds on the Track/OTB Toteboard.
 
Here are the two toteboards:
The System Toteboard for the Lexington Stakes:
 
 
                   
                   
 

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

  
                   
 

5

5

5

16

6:5

11

19

19

  
                   
                   


The Track/OTB Toteboard for the Lexington Stakes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 #1

#2 

 #3

#4 

 #5

 #6

 #7

 #8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 21

 13

 8

 4

 3:5

 6

 ---

 14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Step 2.  Copy down the program number, System Toteboard odds, and Track/OTB odds of every horse having Track/OTB odds higher than the System Toteboard odds. 

Program Number

System Toteboard odds

Track/OTB odds

#1

5

21

#2

5

13

#3

5

8

Step 3. Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract the System Toteboard odds from the Track/OTB odds.  Now divide the result by the System Toteboard odds.  Copy this number down for each horse. 

Program Number

Track/OTB  odds - System Toteboard odds

Result / System Toteboard odds

#1

16

3.2

#2

8

1.6

#3

3

0.6

Step 4.  List the horses from Step 3 from the largest number down to the smallest number.     

Program Number

Track/OTB  odds - System Toteboard odds

Result / System Toteboard odds

#1

16

3.2

#2

8

1.6

#3

3

0.6

It turns out the horses are already in order.

Step 5.  Here is the fun part! Bet $2 (or more if within your budget) on the top three horses from Step 4.   

Here are the race results:
9th Race, Next Post 5:46 Off: 5:16
1 1/16 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse: $325,000
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
2 Coin Silver Castellano J J 117 28.80 10.00 5.60
6 Sort It Out Blanc B 117   6.20 4.20
3 Storm Surge Albarado R J 117     4.20
  Times in 5ths: :23 :462 1:12 1:391 1:453
  Times in 100ths: :23.19 :46.50 1:12.01 1:39.25 1:45.76
Scratched: Skye'n Thunder
Also ran: Forever Wild, Going Wild, Rockport Harbor and Actxecutive
Winning Trainer: Pletcher Todd A - Owner: Peachtree Stable   
$2  Exacta  (2-6)  Paid $127.40
$2  Trifecta  (2-6-3)  Paid $638.20
$2  Superfecta  (2-6-3-8)  Paid $3,235.60
$2  Pick 3  (9-2-2)  3 Correct Paid $335.20  Pick 3  Pool $59,185
 
$2  Quinella  (2-6)  Paid $64.80

Here is how subscribers to the Lambert Racing Weekly fared.

Program Number

Wager To Win

Payoff

#1

$2

$00.00

#2

$2

$28.80

#3

$2

$00.00

Total

$6

$28.80

Lambert Racing Weekly subscribers pocketed $22.80 net profit on a $6 investment. 

Now let us get back to the 130th edition of the Preakness.
 

Here is the 2005 Preakness Stakes field:
 

#1 MALIBU SUNSHINE
#2 HIGH FLY
#3 NOBLE CAUSEWAY
#4 GREELEY'S GALAXY
#5 SCRAPPY T
#6 HAL'S IMAGE
#7 CLOSING ARGUMENT
#8 GALLOPING GROCER
#9 WILKO
#10 SUN KING
#11 HIGH LIMIT
#12 AFLEET ALEX
#13 GIACOMO
#14 GOING WILD
 
 
 Step 1.  Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the odds on the Track/OTB Toteboard.
 
Here are the two toteboards:

          The System Toteboard for the Preakness Stakes:
 
                               
                               
 

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

#11

#12

#13

#14

  
                               
 

16

6

6

13

19

30

15

18

14

8

12

6

13

17

  
                               
                               


The Track/OTB Toteboard for the Preakness Stakes:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

#11

#12

#13

#14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

5

11

9

13

23

7

27

13

21

19

3

6

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
                               

Step 2.  Copy down the program number, System Toteboard odds, and Track/OTB odds of every horse having Track/OTB odds higher than the System Toteboard odds. 

Program Number

System Toteboard odds

Track/OTB odds

#1

16

24

#3

6

11

#8

18

27

#10

8

21

#11

12

19

#14

17

26

Step 3. Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract the System Toteboard odds from the Track/OTB odds.  Now divide the result by the System Toteboard odds.  Copy this number down for each horse. 

Program Number

Track/OTB  odds - System Toteboard odds

Result / System Toteboard odds

#1

8

0.50

#3

5

0.83

#8

9

0.50

#10

13

1.63

#11

7

0.58

#14

9

0.53

Step 4.  List the horses from Step 3 from the largest number down to the smallest number.     

Program Number

Track/OTB  odds - System Toteboard odds

Result / System Toteboard odds

#10

13

1.63

#3

5

0.83

#11

7

0.58

#14

9

0.53

#1

8

0.50

#8

9

0.50


Step 5.  Bet $2 (or more if within your budget) on the top three horses from Step 4.   

 
 

Here are the race results:
 
12th Race Off: 6:21
1 3/16 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse:
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
12 Afleet Alex Rose J 126 8.60 5.00 3.20
5 Scrappy T Dominguez R A 126   11.20 5.80
13 Giacomo Smith M E 126     4.80
Finish Time: 1:55.04
Also ran: Sun King, High Limit, Noble Causeway, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine, Closing Argument, High Fly, Hal's Image, Wilko, Galloping Grocer and Going Wild
Winning Trainer: Ritchey Tim F - Owner: Cash is King LLC   
$2  Pick 3  (7-7-12)  3 Correct Paid $222.40  Pick 3  Pool 
 
$2  Pick 4  (4-7-7-12)  4 Correct Paid $4,881.80  Pick 4  Pool 
 
$2  Daily Double  (PIM SPECIAL/PREAKNESS 5-12)  Paid $35.80  Daily Double  Pool 
 
$2  Daily Double  (7-12)  Paid $33.20  Daily Double  Pool 
 
$2  Exacta  (12-5)  Paid $152.60
$1  Superfecta  (12-5-13-10)  Paid $10,362.30
$2  Trifecta  (12-5-13)  Paid $872.00

Here is how subscribers to the Lambert Racing Weekly fared.

Program Number

Wager To Win

Payoff

#10

$2

$00.00

#3

$2

$00.00

#11

$2

$00.00

Total

$6

$00.00

Lambert Racing Weekly subscribers lost a $6 investment.

Value was present on #10 (Sun King) , #3 (Noble Causeway) and #11 (High Limit).  Afleet Alex won the race at odds of 3-1, but no value was present for a win bet on Afleet Alex.

Over the long haul, only value plays should be bet.  The HRH Racing Weekly will always look for the value plays.

 

On a bright note, subscribers were given a big payoff free of charge from Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com in last week's newsletter:

Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Scores $4,881 Pick 4
$2  Pick 4  (4-7-7-12)  4 Correct Paid $4,881.80  Pick 4  Pool 

By betting a $1 Pick 4 using the top 4 picks of each race in the Preakness Day $1,000,000 Guaranteed Pick 4, a cost of $256 , Subscribers to the Lambert Racing Weekly FREE Newsletter will have scored $2,440.90 .  Let's hope some of you did this on Preakness Day.  Here are the picks again, with the winners highlighted in red.

Pimlico  Saturday, May 21 2005
$1,000,000 Guaranteed Pick 4

HTTP://WWW.HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM
A Subscription Tip Sheet From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 

Pimlico   Dixie S. (G2)   Purse $200,000   Race 9

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Surface: Turf  Open  Age: 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes 

Pgm#

 Horse

ML

Computer Score

Computer Rank
1 Better Talk Now 6-5

114

2
2 Grato Recuerdo (CHI) 20-1

76

5
3 Artie Schiller 1-1

121

1
4 Cool Conductor 15-1

82

4
5 Uncle Bruce 30-1

63

6
6 Good Reward 5-1

102

3

HRH Racing Daily                      Picks:  3 - 1 - 6 - 4


Pimlico          Sir Barton S.  Purse $100,000             Race 10

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Surface: Dirt  Open  Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes 

Pgm#

 Horse

ML

Computer Score

Computer Rank
1 Monster Chaser 8-1

88

5
2 Killenaule 8-1

98

3
3 Russian Bay 12-1

80

7
4 Reel Legend 3-1

106

2
5 Smokescreen 5-2

84

6
6 Sunshine Stalker 7-2

113

1
7 Pinpoint 6-1

92

4
8 B Trick 30-1

73

9
9 Timely Bid 12-1

77

8

HRH Racing Daily                   Picks:  6 - 4 - 2 - 7


Pimlico  W. D. Schaefer H. (G3)   Purse $100,000 Race 11 

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Surface: Dirt  Open  Age: 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes  

Pgm#

 Horse

ML

Computer Score

Computer Rank
1 Ouagadougou 10-1

69

8
2 Clays Awesome 15-1

88

4
3 Go Now 12-1

96

3
4 Seven Talents 8-1

74

7
5 Royal Assault 8-1

82

5
6 Contante (ARG) 5-1

78

6
7 Zakocity 9-5

105

2
8 Alumni Hall 2-1

111

1

HRH Racing Daily                          Picks:  8 - 7 - 3 - 2

 

Pimlico      Preakness S. (G1)    Purse $1,000,000       Race 12

Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Surface: Dirt  Open  Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes 

Pgm#

 Horse

ML

Computer Score

Computer Rank
1 Malibu Moonshine 20-1

 93

10
2 High Fly 9-2

 105

2
3 Noble Causeway 10-1

109

1
4 Greeley's Galaxy 15-1

 91

7
5 Scrappy T 20-1

77

13
6 Hal's Image 50-1