"The Belmont Field Looks About Set"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
The Test Of Champions

The field looks set for the final leg of the Triple Crown.  Scrappy T and Sort It Out have opted out and Indy Storm and Nolan's Cat have opted in.  There are implications of note here, not so much for the new entries but for the horses already entered.  Scrappy T would have surely pressed the pace for at least a mile.  He was the only quality true pace router in the bunch, and his departure leaves a significant void. 

Pace makes the race, and the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes is no exception to the rule.  What once looked to be a spirited pace now looks to be an almost dawdling pace.  This is great news for the likes of Reverberate, Pinpoint,  Chekhov, and do not forget Southern Africa.  On the other hand, closers like Andromeda's Hero and Afleet Alex will suffer some minor repercussions.  And Giacomo, a pure closer, has the most to lose from a slow pace.  His chances of winning are vastly reduced now.  Sorry, all you fans of Giacomo, but sometimes the truth hurts.

How will the race play out now?  The expected pace-setters for up to one mile will most likely be Reverberate and Pinpoint, with Chekhov and Southern Africa chasing or with the leaders.  If Zito wants to force the issue for his best meant charge Andromeda's Hero, he may ask Edgar Prado to send Indy Storm with the leaders.  By the time the 1 1/16 mile point is reached, Andromeda's Hero will have launched his move from far back, with Afleet Alex moving with him, closing on the lead group.  Southern Africa and A.P. Indy will be maneuvering for position just before the stretch.  Giacomo, the little train who could, will be too far back to launch a successful late move.  By the time deep stretch approaches, the race will begin to look like Fifth Avenue at rush hour, as the pacesetters cannot decide whether to keep running or stagger home, except possibly Southern Africa and Reverberate, who will have benefitted from the slow pace.  The race will come down to a close finish, with Andromeda's Hero, Afleet Alex, and possibly Southern Africa or Reverberate.  I expect Afleet Alex will be hard to beat in deep stretch, but Andromeda's Hero may finish the deal.  I expect the trifecta to be populated by some combination of Afleet Alex, Andromeda's Hero, Southern Africa and Reverberate, followed by A.P. Indy, Pinpoint, and possibly Giacomo or Chekhov.  

Here is the probable 2005 Belmont Stakes field in alphabetical order.  The actual posts will be drawn on Wednesday, June 8, 2005:

 

#1 A.P. ARROW

#2 AFLEET ALEX

#3 ANDROMEDA'S HERO

#4 CHEKHOV

#5 GIACOMO
#6 INDY STORM
#7 NOLAN'S CAT

#8 PINPOINT
#9 REVERBERATE

#10 SOUTHERN AFRICA

#11 WATCHMON

Using the Racing Attributes Computer Evaluation (R.A.C.E.) computer program from Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com, the correct odds are shown in Tote Board format.

 The System Toteboard for the Belmont Stakes:

 

	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9	#10	#11
	12	5:2	9:2	15	14	15	16	12	10	8	21

 
From the Tote Board, Afleet Alex (#2 alphabetically) is not a good bet to win at anything under 5:2 , and he will probably be bet down much lower than that.  On the other hand, Andromeda's Hero (#3 alphabetically) will definitely fetch better than 9:2 , and as such he is looking like the live bet for value.  That goes for win, exactas, trifectas, and any other bet with Andromeda's Hero.  And do not forget Southern Africa (#10 alphabetically).  Anything over 8-1 is a good bet on Southern Africa.  The worst underlay appears to be Giacomo (#5 alphabetically) , who is not a wise bet to win at anything less than 14-1.  

Please note that the post positions of the System Tote Board are in alphabetical order, and actual program numbers will not be available until Wednesday, June 8.