"Time To Dissect The Belmont Field"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
The Test Of Champions

A.P. Arrow:  D. Wayne Lukas is a miracle worker with lightly raced 3-year olds in the Triple Crown events.  That said, A.P. Arrow is no Thunder Gulch.  Arrow has only three races, and his best result is a Maiden Special Weight win at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track, working hard to repel a challenge from Nolan's Cat, and earning a modest Beyer figure of 89.  He was 10 lengths back of Giacomo in the Santa Anita Derby, not a very good key race.  He will enjoy the anticipated slow Belmont pace, though, and this together with Lukas in his corner could stamp his passport for a trifecta or superfecta trip, but no more.

Afleet Alex:  The only colt who really impressed in both the Preakness and the Kentucky Derby is this fellow, with back-to-back courageous, determined efforts to narrowly miss a Derby win and then triumph with an athletic feat in the Preakness.  Afleet Alex has placed in the money an impressive 10 out 11 lifetime races.  This inlcudes an eye-opening 8 out of 9 in graded stakes races.  He has done it against all comers, and it is time to start recognizing Afleet Alex as one the premier performers of his generation.  Is there a down side?  Yes, but you have to strain hard to see it.  This will be his sixth race in 3 months.  He avoided disaster in the Preakness after getting clipped by Scrappy T, and he expended great energy going for the roses on May 7, and those determined efforts surely depleted his cache of reserves.  He must overcome what will in all probability be a slow Belmont pace, and that is not ideally suitable to his deep stalking style.  Still, he has been almost perfect, and I think only a superior performance will beat him.  Who is capable of such a feat?  There is only one colt in the race who can beat him, and that colt is Andromeda's Hero.  Trained by Nick Zito, Andromeda's Hero is lighlty raced with good results and a tremendous upside.  But Alex is clearly "The Man."

Andromeda's Hero:  To me Andromeda's Hero is the most intriguing colt in the field.  With only seven races under his belt, he is still learning and eligible to improve.  And the signs are there.  I keep looking back to the April 6 Arkansas Derby, where a green Andromeda's Hero finished third behind Afllet Alex, yes, that Afleet Alex, and Flower Alley, after altering course in the stretch.  The important talent he displayed on that day is not so much hitting the board, but being able to match the final sixteenth of Afleet Alex.  Alex blew away the field in the stretch, but Andromeda's Hero was merrily rolling along in third.  Now it is two months hence, and Hero is coming home to New York where his mentor Nick Zito is "The Man."  Hero is bred to cherish the classic 1 1/2 mile Belmont distance, and he could be sitting on a huge performance.  This is where my money is going.

Chekhov:  Patrick Biancone gave this colt a three month breather from February 5 to May 8 this year.  That makes me a bit uncomfortable, because three months is not long enough to solve a serious problem, and it is too long to maintain top stakes condition.  Granted, Chekhov returned to destroy a Belmont Maiden Special Weight field with a 94 Beyer, but in his second race back, the Peter Pan, he seemed to peak as he registered a 94 Beyer, well beaten by Oratory.  Clearly this is a colt with a future, but his best hope in the Belmont is to fill someone's trifecta ticket.

Giacomo:  This a direct quote from my tipsheet for the Kentucky Derby: "Yet another Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby also-ran.  His only victory is a Maiden Allowance event at Santa Anita."  I am not embarrassed about this statement, well, maybe just a little bit, because the Derby was run so slow, due to a variety of factors, that a Santa Anita Derby also ran could have won, and did win, at odds of 50-1.  The Preakness was altogether a different animal.  Quoting myself once again, and hoping that is not too narcissistic an act: "The Preakness will be run in typical Pimlico fashion:  fast and furious.  And if a horse does not break, forget it, he is history.  It is very rare for superior front-runners to lose at Pimlico.  There will be no Ferdinands or Sea Heros or even Giacomos surprising everyone and winning this race."  So I was right, as Giacomo managed to pass tired horses to finish third.  The 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes, on the surface, would seem to cry out for true closers like Giacomo.  But don't be fooled.  There is not sufficient pace to set up a true closer, even one with the patented late charge Giacomo has regularly shown.  This fellow has trifecta and superfecta written all over him, and I suppose exacta is not beyond the realm of possibility.  Giacomo will not win the 2005 Belmont.  You can quote me.  

Indy Storm:  Why did Nick Zito suddenly enter Indy in the Belmont Stakes?  He is Triple Crown nominated but it took him seven races to clear Non-Winners-Of-One Allowance conditions.  Do I smell rabbit stew cooking up in the Zito kitchen?  Probably not, although Andromeda's Hero would certainly appreciate a helping.  More likely Zito is happy with the improvement Indy showed in earning an 89 Beyer on the Preakness undercard.  Indy is also bred for classic distances, which helps in the Belmont (remember another Zito longshot named Birdstone?).  Indy, despite the positives, has the look of a second string performer in this Triple Crown Grade 1 event.  Including in the superfecta is a logical wager decision.  

Nolan's Cat:  A recent newcomer to the Belmont field, Nolan's Cat is trained by the talented Dale Romans.  The Belmont is truly a stretch for Cat, though, who has yet to win a race in five attempts.  He did manage to finish ahead of Watchmon in one of those five races, and he challenged A.P. Arrow in another.  Despite his handler and his classic distance breeding, he is not likely to figure in the outcome of the race.  I have no problem including him in superfectas, though, in this moderately talented Belmont field.  I would like to offer more hope for Nolan's Cat, but there is no justification. 

Pinpoint:  I recall picking Pinpoint as one of four possible horses who could win the $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard May 21.  He gunned it from the outset and held on for the entire 1 1/16 mile distance, and he was wise to employ that strategy against a field not particularly laden with speed.  I also recall reasoning that Pinpoint was very lucky to draw a Sir Barton field void of pace, and he seems to enjoy a similar fortune in the 2005 Belmont with the defection of Scrappy T.  There are differences, though, from the Sir Barton.  Most obviously, Aflleet Alex was busy winning the Preakness on May 21, and he is here for the Belmont too.  Also, Reverberate should be revving his engines after his front-running 106 Beyer in the Peter Pan Stakes.  Clearly, though, Pinpoint has every opportunity to stretch his speed, and don't forget, he is a Nick Zito runner, and Nick's horses win regularly in New York.  He may not win, but Pinpoint will get lots of calls, and he may hang on for a share of the purse.    

Reverberate:  Reverberate is going to have a nice career.  He emerged from the Peter Pan, with his second place finish and outstanding 106 Beyer figure, as a suddenly speedy router.  Or were there signs before the Peter Pan?  He is nearly perfect at Belmont Park in three races with the Peter Pan Stakes place, a Non-Winners-Of-One Allowance victory on May 8, and a Maiden Special Weight win during his sophomore campaign.  His Dosage Index, if you're into that sort of thing, is a solid 1.11, so he not only exhibits the best route pace in the field of eleven, but he owns classic distance breeding as well.  To dress up the po-boy a little more, the Scrappy T desertion leaves Reverberate with only Pinpoint to join him on the lead for the first mile of the race.  There is a lot shaking out right for this colt for the June 11 Belmont.  On the downside, he will expend energy to hold Pinpoint at bay early, and then attempt to repel Afleet Alex and company in the late going.  That said, Reverberate is going to be a factor in the ultimate outcome, and is cetainly a must include in the exotic betting. 

Southern Africa:  The winner of the May 14 Lone Star Derby, a Grade 3 event, is perhaps the most mysterious colt in the Belmont field.  His journey to the Triple Crown is well off the beaten path, having begun in Great Britain at turf venues including Newbury and Ascot, continuing on to the American west coast at Hollywood Park, then on to Sunland Park in New Mexico, and finally culminating in the Lone Star Derby victory at Grand Prairie, Texas. That victory, at 7-1, was an eye opener.  Southern Africa displayed a strong stalking style to stay close to the leaders, and then moved five-wide to run them down, defeating a filed of eleven and earning a Beyer of 96 in the process.  That was his sixth race on dirt, and second victory.  The turf races are of no consequence.  Southern Africa is trained by Michael Puhich, and the colt is Triple Crown nominated.  He is well placed in the Belmont in that the pace will be sluggish, setting up his stalking style in good order.  How will he do?  He will be prominent in early stretch and he may finish in the top two.  He may be that good.  I am allowing him the benefit of the doubt, and assuming his Lone Star Derby performance is no fluke.  He is going to be in all my exotics.

Watchmon:  He took four swings at Maiden Special Weights before breaking through.  That win came in a Gulfstream Park 1 7/16 mile marathon on a sloppy track in a race scheduled originally for the turf, and he earned a pedestrian Beyer figure of 78.  Since then he has raced twice, once finishing fourth in the Federico Stakes against five others, earning an embarrassing 74 Beyer.  He saved his best for last, a second place finish in a Belmont Park Non-Winners-Of-One Allowance event on May 22, earning a Beyer figure of 84.  Needless to say, he has little hope of winning on Saturday.  His best hope is to stumble into the superfecta, and the odds of that happening are not good.