"The Key Race As Handicapping Tool"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Today we will examine the "Key Race" as a horse race handicapping tool. Imagine we are handicapping a race today and we are considering possible Key Races in the Daily Racing Form past performances.

By Key Race we could mean any of several distinct scenarios:

1. Several of the horses in today's race have raced against each other before.

2. One or more of the horses in today's race have raced against a top talent before and fared well.

3. One or more of the horses in today's race have raced against a very weak field before and fared poorly.

We use the Key Race to connect the dots. What if Horse A races against Horse B today, and they have never raced against each other before? If Horse A has beaten Horse C before, and if Horse B has lost to Horse C before, then we infer that Horse A will beat Horse B today. We used the Key Race where Horse A ran against Horse C and another Key Race where Horse B ran against Horse C to draw this conclusion.

Here is another example. What if Horse D races against Horse E today, and they have never raced against each other before?
If Horse E has raced against a top talent and challenged him, then we may infer that Horse E will beat Horse D.

Also, the setting for the Key Race can be any of several possibilities.

To name two:

1. The Key Race took place at today's racecourse, distance, surface, and track condition.

2. The Key Race took place at a different racecourse, a different distance, and perhaps even a different surface.

It is critical how close the Key Race matches today's exact conditions, because the closer the Key Race is to reproducing today's conditions, the more valuable it is as a tool to predict today's race outcome.

There are several factors in a race that contribute, or detract from, the predictability of the race. Here is a fairly comprehensive list:

Factors In A Race

Racetrack Quality
Race Conditions
Turf vs Dirt
Wet vs Dry
Complex Pace or Not
Lone Pace or Not
Total Races Each Entrant
Total Races at Distance
Total Races on Surface
Total Races on Racecourse
Filly/Mare or Colt/Horse/Gelding
Age Restrictions
Possible Use of Drug Supplements
Claiming vs Allowance/Stakes
Previous Races Against Field
Bull Ring or Not
Key Race or Not
Suspicious Layoffs
Unnecessary Drop in Class
Conspicuous Odds
Throw-Outs

The more of these race factors we can explain, the higher the predictability of our race prediction. In other words, our hard handicapping effort will not be for naught.

So how can a Key Race help us in accounting for some of these race factors? Let's take a look at this possible Key Race scenario:

1. The Key Race took place at today's racecourse, distance, surface, and track condition.

Notice how many "Race Factors" from the list are accounted for by this favorable circumstance.

Race Conditions
Turf vs Dirt
Wet vs Dry
Total Races at Distance
Total Races on Surface
Total Races on Racecourse
Filly/Mare or Colt/Horse/Gelding
Age Restrictions Previous Races Against Field
Key Race or Not

In other words the Key Race has not only provided information as to the relative strength of the horses in today's race, but it has provided additional information that will help reduce the uncertainty in our prediction.

If the Key Race took place at the same racecourse and distance as today's race, it becomes a powerful tool in (1) reducing uncertainty in today's handicapping conclusions and (2) separating the good horses from the bad horses in today's race.

So in the best of circumstances the Key Race accomplishes two jobs.

It separates the men from the boys and it increases the predictability of the race.

Let's take a look at another possible Key Race scenario:

2. The Key Race took place at a different racecourse, a different distance, and perhaps even a different surface.

In this scenario, the Key Race only does one job.

It helps us to determine who the stronger horses are (separate the men from the boys). It does not increase the predictability of the race.

Three critical race factors are ignored by a Key Race that took place at a different racecourse, distance, and surface.

Total Races at Distance
Total Races on Surface
Total Races on Racecourse

What this means is that what the horses did at another track and distance may not translate very well, or at all, to what they will do at today's racecourse and distance.

Key Races are one of the most important horse race handicapping tools available. And they will be a critical factor in handicapping Breeders Cup 2005 Championship Races.

Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com is your first and last stop for Breeders Cup 2005 coverage. We will post articles on the upcoming Breeders Cup and offer a Breeders Cup 2005 Handicapping Report.

Mark us on your Favorites and don't feel like a stranger. You are always welcome at Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com.

And don't forget to read about the Premier Selection With Exotics.

Jim Lambert
President
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com

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