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Wednesday, September 28, 2005

(4:31 a.m. EDT)


"An Early Look At The TVG Breeders Cup 2005 Sprint"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the TVG Sprint Division (updated September 26, 2005).  This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Lost In The Fog (108)
2. Woke Up Dreamin (97)
3. Pomeroy (80)
4. Greg's Gold (62)
5. Battle Won (59)
6. Mass Media (31)
7. Unfurl The Flag (27)
8. Wildcat Heir (24)
9. Dons Six (14)
10. Kelly's Landing (10)

A few items of interest concerning this list:  There are no fillies or mares on the list.  These are all U.S. based sprinters.  This is an independent list from the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the TVG Sprint Division (updated September 26, 2005).  The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1.  Lost In The Fog (32)
2.  Battle Won (20)
3.  Sensibly Chic (20)
4.  Acey Deucey (18)
5.  Bank Audit (18)
6.  Happy Ticket (18)
7.  Mass Media (16)
8.  Commentator (14)
9.  Woke Up Dreamin (14)
10.  Molto Vita (12)

In this list Sensibly Chic, Acey Deucey, Bank Audit, Happy Ticket and Molto Vita are fillies or mares.

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race.  A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race.  If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed."  This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in.  During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points.  More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events.  For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points.  The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed.  The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system.  These seven get to run based on their points.  The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel.  This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers.
 
The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system.
 

Who Are The Players ?

Most conversations start and end with the brilliant sprinter
Lost In The Fog.  His record is an unblemished 9 victories in 9 starts.  He has a Grade 1 victory to his credit, the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga, on August 27, 2005.  He won his only race at the Breeders Cup 2005 host track, Belmont Park, the Grade 2 Riva Ridge at seven furlongs on June 11.  On that day, however, he was tested by the courageous Egg Head, who came up lame afterwards.  Lost In The Fog sports Breeders Cup quality speed figures, and he deserves recognition, but he his not invincible.

Another talented sprinter is the improving
Battle Won
Battle Won languished in Optional Claiming races until he returned from a lengthy freshening lasting November 2004 to May 2005.  Charles Simon trains Battle Won and he is to be commended because Battle Won is now performing at a championship level.  He won the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap May 7 in his second start after returning.  He was a spirited second to Kelly's Landing June 25 in the Grade 3 Aristides B.C. Handicap at Churchill Downs.  Kelly's Landing  set a track record on that day.  On July 31, 2005, Battle Won finished second to the surprise winner Greg's Gold in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap at Del Mar.  Battle Won is a legitimate threat in the Breeders Cup Sprint October 29.

Woke Up Dreamin is a popular choice among West Coast racing enthusiasts.  Trained by Bob Baffert,  Woke Up Dreamin has raced four times in 2005, winning twice, the Grade 2 True North B.C. Handicap at Belmont on June 11, and the Grade 2 Smile Sprint at Calder on July 10.  His more noteworthy victims include Voodoo and Mass Media .  A rather uneven racing campaign is cause for concern with Woke Up Dreamin , however, with a one year hiatus from September 2003 to October 2004, and an additional 3 months unraced immediately following his return. 

A sprinter capable of capturing the imagination of the public is the Nick Zito trained 
Commentator
With Gary Stevens designated as pilot, this speedy New York bred has raced to 7 wins in 9 races.  The most accomplished of his seven victories is the 1 1/8 mile Whitney Handicap at Saratoga where he rationed out his superior speed and held off arguably the best Handicap horse in the country, Saint Liam Commentator boasts gaudy Beyer Speed Figures against somewhat questionable competition in most of his races, however. 

*** Commentator has aggravated a shin injury and will be out for the remainder of 2005. ***

Whereas
Lost In The Fog and Commentator exhibit brilliance on a regular basis, Forest Danger is brilliant only on occasion.  In the Grade 1 Carter Handicap April 9, 2005 at Aqueduct,  Forest Danger exploded with a 120.4 for seven furlongs, setting a swift fraction of 107.4 on his way to victory.  Yet in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap May 30, 2005, at the Breeders Cup 2005 host track Belmont Park , he was a soundly beaten fifth some 14 lengths behind the winner Ghostzapper , finishing behind Silver Wagon and Sir Shackleton as well .   September 3 in the seven panel Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga Forest Danger was a well beaten fifth, nearly ten lengths behind the winner Mass Media .  

A consistent performer on the East Coast is the Patrick Biancone handled
Pomeroy .  He has managed to win 7 races in 17 attempts, including a score in the Grade 2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga August 13, 2005, defeating the likes of I'm the Tiger and Voodoo .   Earlier in his 2005 campaign, in the May 7 Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap , Pomeroy managed to finish third some four lengths behind the winner Battle Won .

An outsider in the Breeders Cup Sprint is the outstanding Louisiana bred filly
Happy Ticket .   Trained by Andrew Leggio,  Happy Ticket has simply murdered the local competition in Shreveport, Louisiana.  In her first race outside Louisiana, the June 18 Grade 3 Chicago B.C. Handicap at Arlington Park, Happy Ticket won impressively, albeit against a suspect field.  She followed up that victory with a professional second to the talented Madcap Escapade in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney at Calder, and promptly notched her first Grade 1 victory in the August 28 Ballerina Stakes.  Imagining Happy Ticket victorious against the likes of Lost In The Fog is a bit much, but then again, this is horse racing.

A possible contender from the West Coast is the talented
Greg's Gold .  On July 31, 2005, Greg's Gold defeated a much improved Battle Won to win the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap at Del Mar.

*** Greg's Gold has suffered a knee injury and will be out for the remainder of 2005. ***

Other potential contenders include
Imperialism , winner of the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien B.C. Handicap August 21 at Del Mar, and Unhurl The Flag , finishing seventh as the even-money favorite in the same race.                          

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint?

Lost In The Fog is a major star and deserves the attention he is getting prior to the Breeders Cup Sprint October 29.  How he compares to winners of the Sprint in earlier editions of Breeders Cup remains to be seen.  Some notable previous winners include Artax,  Reraise , Safely Kept (filly), Gulch and Cajun Beat .  Some notable beaten favorites are Housebuster ,  Dayjur and Affirmed Success .   Lost In The Fog belongs in the list of high caliber Breeders Cup sprinters.  The remainder of the 2005 hopefuls appear to be a step behind Lost In The Fog .  There is hope, however, for the understudies.  Lost In The Fog struggled to win his only race at Belmont Park, the Grade 2 Riva Ridge at seven furlongs on June 11.  The 2005 edition of the Breeders Cup Sprint promises to be an exciting, competitive event.    


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Jim Lambert
President
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com



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