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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

(5:54 p.m. EDT)

"An Early Look At The Powered By Dodge Breeders Cup 2005 Classic"
 
  
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

 A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Dodge Classic Division (updated October 3, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Saint Liam (104)
2. Rock Hard Ten (102)
3. Borrego (85)
4. Flower Alley (48)
5. Afleet Alex (39)
6. Perfect Drift (35)
7. Suave (30)
8. Oratorio - Ireland (28)
9. Roman Ruler (24)
10. Shaniko (18)

A few items of interest concerning this list: There are no fillies or mares on the list. These are predominantly U.S. based runners. This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Breeders Cup 2005
Racing Reports
 With Patented Computer Analysis  
 From Horse Race Handicapping.com

Click Here


Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Dodge Classic Division (updated October 3, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. Saint Liam (36)
2. Borrego (32)
3. Afleet Alex (30)
4. Flower Alley (30)
5. Roman Ruler (24)
6. Sun King (24)
7. Rock Hard Ten (22)
8. High Fly (21)
9. Lava Man (20)
10. Sir Shackleton (20)

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system.

Who Are The Players ?

 Saint Liam is generally accepted as a top Classic contender. Some insiders believe, however, this is in large part due to a string of injuries which has sidelined the champions Ghostzapper, Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road. Saint Liam has been a model of consistency with 4 Graded Stakes victories and 4 additional money finishes in Graded Stakes competition. September 10 in the Grade 1 Woodward at Belmont Park he defeated four horses including the speedy Commentator and Sir Shackleton. In the 2004 edition of the Woodward, Saint Liam managed to finish within a neck of the great Ghostzapper. The 2005 Woodward victory served to avenge an earlier loss in the 1 1/8 mile Whitney Handicap at Saratoga to Commentator. With no one to challenge Commentator in the early stages of the Whitney, Saint Liam was forced to expend great energy to stay close to the speedster and failed to pass him in the stretch. Rider Jerry Bailey and trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. will team up with Saint Liam to go for a Breeders Cup Classic victory October 29.

Afleet Alex is the easily the best of the three year-old crop in 2005. He dominated Triple Crown racing with one-sided victories in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, following a strong third place finish in the Kentucky Derby. The health of Afleet Alex has been in question for some four months, however. He began galloping in September 2005 after healing from a surgically repaired hairline fracture in the left cannon bone. Afleet Alex is unraced in about four months and entering the Powered By Dodge Breeders Cup Classic is probably ambitious. The connections of Afleet Alex have not officially proclaimed their intentions regarding the B. C. Classic.

 *** Afleet Alex will not be entered in the Breeders Cup Classic ***

 The four year-old Borrego spent most of the 2004 campaign getting trounced by the superstar Smarty Jones. Turning over a new leaf in 2005, Borrego finished second to Lava Man in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup in early July, and followed by winning the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 21 with a determined effort to defeat favored Perfect Drift. Then, in an overpowering performance, Borrego won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont October 1. With his fifth lifetime victory in nineteen starts, and first major victory at the Breeders Cup host track Belmont Park, Borrego has added his name to the short list of B. C. Classic hopefuls.

With only nine lifetime races to his credit, Flower Alley is an intriguing young talent. A three year-old, Flower Alley began 2005 by chasing Afleet Alex without success. But as the summer heated up so did Flower Alley, with a Grade 2 victory in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga July 30 and a Grade 1 victory over Bellamy Road in the Travers at Saratoga August 27. His connections entered him in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park October 1, where he finished fourth and was soundly defeated by Borrego. Contrarians can argue Flower Alley failed in his first try racing against his elders. With Todd Pletcher and J. R. Velazquez in his corner, however, Flower Alley will always compete.

Richard Mandella has been tuning up Rock Hard Ten for a fall campaign since March 2005. The impressive four year-old returned to center stage with an expected, but nonetheless impressive, victory in the Grade 2 Goodwood Breeders Cup Handicap October 1 at Santa Anita Park. Rock Hard Ten made an impact late in his three year-old campaign, although he failed in the 2004 Belmont Stakes versus Smarty Jones and upset winner Birdstone. Racing twice to-date in 2005 before his freshening, Rock Hard Ten won a nose decision over Imperialism in the Grade 2 Strub Stakes at Santa Anita in February, and on March 5 won the Santa Anita Handicap defeating the likes of Saint Liam, Borrego, and Congrats. All eyes will be on Rock Hard Ten October 29 in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Roman Ruler, a three year-old handled by Bob Baffert, has garnered attention recently. Roman Ruler was victorious in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park August 7, and managed to finish third in the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga August 27 behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Roman Ruler tried his elders in the Division for the first time October 1 in the Grade 2 Goodwood Breeders Cup Handicap at Santa Anita Park. He ran a spirited second to the favored Rock Hard Ten.

Sun King, a three year-old, ran a good second to Roman Ruler in the Haskell, and tried older Classic Division runners in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont October 1, finishing a willing third. The Gold Cup featured a stunning performance by the much improved Borrego.

An outsider is the four year-old Shaniko, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park September 17. Super Frolic, winner of the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup, run on a sloppy surface September 24, is also a Breeders Cup Classic outsider. The three year-old The Daddy, winner of the Grade 2 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs October 1, is being mentioned as a Classic hopeful, but he has only four races to his credit.

The blue collar runner of the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic hopefuls is Perfect Drift. Perfect Drift will not be confused with the likes of Ghostzapper any longer, or even Saint Liam, but he always answers the bell, and merits respect on that count. The six year-old gelding peaked in 2004 battling Ghostzapper, Roses in May and Saint Liam tooth and nail. 2005 is a new year, though, and Perfect Drift has struggled. Perfect Drift managed a second place finish in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic August 21, and is fresh off a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup on a sloppy surface September 24.

The West Coast based Lava Man, trained by Doug O'Neil, deserves mention in a dialogue on the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic. Lava Man was a runaway winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup in early July, and ran a spirited third behind Borrego and Perfect Drift in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic August 21. Lava Man ran a disappointing seventh, beaten once again by Borrego, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont October 1.
What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic?

 The Classic Division is highly competitive in 2005, not unlike any other year. There are no major stars, although several top quality contenders promise to put on a good show. To get an idea how the 2005 Classic Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past. Notable previous winners include Sunday Silence, A.P. Indy , Skip Away, Cigar and Ferdinand. Two notable beaten favorites are Fusaichi Pegasus and Medaglia d'Oro .

Only when pondering these historical names does one begin to question the strength of the Class of 2005. It is certainly true, one month before the running of the Powered By Dodge Breeders Cup Classic, there is no name to strike fear in the hearts of the hopefuls. A champion will be crowned October 29, regardless.

Breeders Cup 2005
Racing Reports
 With Patented Computer Analysis  
 From Horse Race Handicapping.com

Click Here



Jim Lambert
President
 Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com



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