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Saturday, October 22, 2005

(6:03 a.m. EDT)


"An Early Look At The John Deere Breeders Cup 2005 Turf"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the John Deere Turf Division (updated October 3, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Hurricane Run - Ireland (93)
2. Powerscourt - Great Britain (84)
3. Shakespeare (58)
4. Better Talk Now (57)
5. Azamour - Ireland (56)
6. Motivator - Great Britain (52)
7. Oratorio - Ireland (50)
8. Bago - France (37)
9. English Channel (22)
10. Fourty Niners Son (18)

A few items of interest concerning this list: The list is strongly weighted to European runners.  There are no fillies or mares on the list. This is an independent list from the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the John Deere Turf Division (October 3, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.


1. Sweet Return - Great Britain (28)
2. Better Talk Now (24)
3. Fourty Niners Son (22)
4. King of Happiness (20)
5. Relaxed Gesture - Ireland (20)
6. America Alive (18
7. Willow O Wisp (18)
8. Gun Salute (17)
9. English Channel (16)
10. King's Drama - Ireland (16)
11. Shakespeare (16)

The
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only.  As a result, none of the European turf classics figure in these point standings.

The
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings
determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

The Irish bred three year-old colt Hurricane Run is trained by the legendary Andre Fabre and piloted by Kieran Fallon.  Hurricane Run is fresh off a scintillating victory in the European Group 1 Prix de L'arc de Triomphe October 2 at Longchamp in Paris.  He raced near the back of the pack entering the 2 1/2 furlong stretch before unleashing a powerful winning move to capture the 1 1/2 mile event.  In the process he defeated the 2005 Epsom Derby winner Motivator and the 2004 Prix de L'arc de Triomphe winner Bago, who finished third.  Hurricane Run owns four wins in five attempts in European Group classification turf events, and will be a force to be reckoned with should he run in the Breeders Cup Turf.

The official winner of the 2005 Arlington Million, the British bred five year-old
Powerscourt, crossed the finish line first in the 2004 Arlington Million as well, but was disqualified following a steward's inquiry.  Powerscourt missed a scheduled start in September but is a Breeders Cup possibility.  Having defeated stalwart Kitten's Joy in the Arlington Million, Powerscourt certainly has Breeders Cup Turf credentials. 

The top U.S. bred prospect for the Breeders Cup Turf is the William Mott trained
Shakespeare, winner of the 1 1/2 mile Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont October 1.  Shakespeare defeated a representative field in the Hirsch, clocking in at 2:27.22 for the 1 1/2 mile affair.  The Kentucky bred four year-old is a perfect four wins in four attempts, and will no doubt face the toughest competition he has yet seen in the Breeders Cup Turf.   

Good Reward, trained by Shug McGaughey III, has run recent Graded Stakes races on both the turf and the dirt.  He finished a disappointing eighth in the Arlington Million in August, well behind Powerscourt and Kitten's Joy.  In June, Good Reward won the Grade 1 Manhattan at 1 1/4 miles on the turf at Belmont, defeating favorite Artie Schiller, who managed to finish third.

Fourty Niners Son, trained by Neil Drysdale, captured the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch turf Championship October 2 at Santa Anita.  The victory illustrated an appreciation by the four year-old son of Distorted Humor for longer distance turf events.  Fourty Niners Son finished third in a blanket finish for runner-up in the Grade 1 Arlington Million in August, three lengths shy of the winner Powerscourt.

The four year-old French bred
Bago is another member of the talented European contingent which hopes to invade the U. S. to participate in the Breeders Cup Turf.  Winner of the 2004 Group 1 Prix de L'arc de Triomphe, Bago returned in 2005 to run a strong third some 3 1/2 lengths behind this year's Prix de L'arc de Triomphe winner Hurricane Run.  Racing in almost exclusively European Group 1 company, Bago also posted a third place finish behind Azamour in the King George VI Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Newbury July 23.  Bago merits serious consideration in the Breeders Cup Turf.

English Channel, a fast improving three year-old Kentucky bred trained by Todd Pletcher, ran the best race of his developing career in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont October 1.  English Channel fought the eventual winner Shakespeare determinedly the entire length of the stretch before yielding.  In July English Channel posted a victory in the Grade 3 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.

No conversation concerning the Breeders Cup Turf would be complete without mention of the 2004 winner
Better Talk Now.  A six year-old gelding bred in Kentucky, Better Talk Now finished fourth in the Grade 1 Arlington Million in August of this year, about three lengths behind the winner Powerscourt.  Most recently, in the Grade 1 Man O' War Stakes September 10 at Belmont Park, Better Talk Now defeated Irish bred King's Drama by a neck.

Other possibles for the 2005 Breeders Cup Turf include Irish bred Azamour, winner of the King George VI Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Newbury in July, British bred Motivator, winner of the Group 1 Epsom Derby at Epsom in June, and Irish bred Oratorio, winner of the Group 1 Baileys Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown September 10.


What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Turf?

The Turf Division is dominated by European runners in 2005, not unlike any other year. The personality of the 2005 Breeders Cup Turf is in large part dependent on which European runners are entered and then selected by the expert panel of Breeders Cup Limited.  To get an idea how the 2005 Turf Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past. Notable previous winners include High Chaparral, Fantastic Light, Daylami, Chief Bearhart, Kotashaan and Theatrical.  Notable beaten favorites are Sky Classic, Montjeu , Paradise Creek and Royal Anthem.

When remembering these historical names one begins to consider the strength of the Class of 2005. It is evident, only days before the running of the John Deere Breeders Cup Turf,
Hurricane Run is the one name that stands out among the hopefuls.  He has plenty of challengers, though, to vie for the Breeders Cup Turf championship October 29.


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Jim Lambert
President
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com



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