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Monday, October 24, 2005

(6:00 a.m. EDT)


"An Early Look At The Emirates Airline Breeders Cup 2005 Filly & Mare Turf"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Emirates Airline Filly & Mare Turf Division (updated October 3, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Ouija Board - Great Britain (101)
2. Megahertz - Great Britain (98)
3. Wonder Again (61)
4. Shawanda - Ireland (55)
5. Riskaverse (42)
6. Film Maker (33)
7. Melhor Ainda (31)
8. Alexander Goldrun - Ireland (29)
9. Intercontinental - Great Britain (28)
10. Luas Line - Ireland (20)

A few items of interest concerning this list: The top two ratings are owned by British bred mares, and in general the list is weighted to European bred runners.  The top rated mare, Ouija Board, has run in European races exclusively in 2005.  Only fillies or mares comprise the list, of course. This is an independent list from the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Emirates Airline Filly & Mare Turf Division (October 3, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.


1. Megahertz - Great Britain (34)
2. Angara - Great Britain (22)
3. Intercontinental - Great Britain (22)
4. Sand Springs (22)
5. Amorama - France (19)
6. Singhalese- Great Britain (16)
7. Honey Ryder (14)
8. Melhor Ainda (14)
9. Three Degrees - Ireland (14)
10. Film Maker (12)
11. Wonder Again (12)

The
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only.  As a result, none of the European turf classics figure in these point standings.

The
World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings
determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

The British bred four year-old filly Ouija Board is trained by the Ed Dunlop and piloted by the colorful Frankie Dettori.  Ouija Board is the 2004 winner of the Filly & Mare Breeders Cup Turf and will be favored to win it again.  She overcame a quarter-crack problem in June and returned to win her final Breeders Cup prep, the Group 3 Princess Royal John Doyle Stakes, September 24 at Newbury.  Listed among her victims are Bago and Film Maker.

Another British bred mare, the six year-old stalwart
Megahertz, is handled by Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel and ridden by another Hall of Famer Alex Solis.   Megahertz is a favorite on the U. S. West Coast, and she is known for three distinctive characteristics.  One, for her diminutive stature, two for her courageous heart, and three for her "come from the clouds" running style that is reminiscent of the legendary Silky Sullivan.  The pertinent question is:  "How long can she continue do it?"  The competition in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf stands to be much more challenging than that in her final prep, the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Santa Anita.

Melhor Ainda
, another student of Bobby Frankel, has ten lifetime races to her credit.  The three year-old filly has flashed brilliance against her peers, winning the Grade 3 Sands Point at Belmont in June under a hand ride, and running a strong second in the Grade 1 American Oaks July 3 at Hollywood Park.  Melhor Ainda tried her elders in the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington Park in August and ran a spirited third behind Angara and Megahertz.  In her final prep, Melhor Ainda disappointed as favorite by finishing seventh, behind Riskaverse, Film Maker and Wonder Again among others.

Bobby Frankel trains yet another Turf standout, the British bred star
Intercontinental.  The five year-old mare has been based in the U. S. since the Spring of 2004.  Intercontinental has captured an amazing seven Graded Stakes victories since that time, culminating in a scintillating performance to win the Grade 2 Winstar Galaxy October 9 at Keeneland in her final prep for the Breeders Cup.  She defeated Ticker Tape and Wend among others in the Winstar.  For all her brilliance, Intercontinental is a Turf mile specialist, and the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf will definitely be a presiding issue.

The Aga Khan's Irish bred
Shawanda claimed her first Classic victory in the Group 1 Darley Irish Oaks at The Curragh on July 17, and trumped herself with a brilliant victory in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille Lucien Barriere at Longchamp in September.  Unfortunately, Shawanda sustained a minor pelvic injury in the Group 1 Prix de L'arc de Triomphe, won by Hurricane Run, October 2 at Longchamp.  Shawanda finished sixth in the Prix L'arc, running against males in one of the world's most prestigious Turf Classics, and her status is not determined for the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Trained by James Toner, the now five year-old mare
Film Maker was the runner-up to Ouija Board in the 2004 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  In her final prep for 2005, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park October 1, Film Maker finished a determined third behind upset winner Riskaverse and Wonder Again.  Her last victory was May 21 in the Grade 3 Brivesca at Pimlico.

The bridesmaid of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf hopefuls seems to be the six year-old mare
Wonder Again, also trained by James Toner.  In her final prep, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park October 1, Wonder Again finished second by a head to the late rushing Riskaverse.
 Again.  In the 2004 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Wonder Again finished third behind Ouija Board and Film Maker Wonder Again finished third in the Grade 3 New York Handicap at Belmont in July.  She does have five lifetime victories in Graded Stakes races.

An up and coming European talent, the Irish bred three year-old
Luas Line, began her career racing in Ireland and Britain.  Luas Line is twice placed in European Group Classic races, the most recent a third in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas May 22 at Curragh.  In her Amercian debut, Luas Line finished fourth in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Hollywood Park July 3.  Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf hopeful Melhor Ainda finished second in the same race.  Luas Line was victorious in her final prep, the Grade 1 Garden City Breeders Cup Stakes at Belmont September 10.

The talented four year-old filly
Wend, trained by William Mott, closed fast to finish second, behind the brilliant miler Intercontinental, in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont October 9.  With the Gallant Bloom being contested at a mile on the grass, the connections of Wend seemed to be tweaking the running style of the talented filly.   By "throttling" some of her natural speed early in the race, they may be aiming to save some gas in the tank for the stretch run.  Wend put together a five race wining streak in 2005, but with only one Graded Stakes in the streak.  In her first Grade 1 event, the Beverly D at Arlington Park in August, Wend finished a fading sixth, some 4 3/4 lengths behind the winner Angara.
 
Angara finished last in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park October 1, perhaps dashing the hopes of her connections to win the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf October 29.  Sand Springs, another hopeful, managed a fourth place finish in the Flower Bowl Invitational, some two lengths off the winner Riskaverse.

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf?

The Filly & Mare Turf Division is heavily influenced by European runners in 2005, not unlike any other year.  The American runners are fairly strong in 2005, and the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf is certain to be a highly competitive affair.  To get an idea how the 2005 Turf Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  The Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf is a late starter, having its inaugural run in 1999.   Notable previous winners include Islington, Bank's Hill and Soaring Softly.  A notable beaten favorite is Golden Apples.

When comparing these historical names to the Class of 2005, one cannot draw useful inferences because the Filly & Mare Turf has only a six year history.  So how strong is the Class of 2005?  With only days before the running of the Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, names like
Ouija Board, Megahertz and Intercontinental  inspire admiration among racing aficionados and casual observers alike.  The Class of 2005 is strong indeed.


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Jim Lambert
President
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com



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