What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Emirates Airline Distaff Division (updated October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Ashado - 106
2. Stellar Jayne - 92
3. Society Selection - 76
4. Happy Ticket - 67
5. In the Gold - 54
6. Sweet Symphony - 44
7. Healthy Addiction - 35
8. Smuggler - 24
9. Island Fashion - 22
10. Pampered Princess - 14

A few items of interest concerning this list:  The top rated filly is Ashado, winner of the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff.  The fifth rated filly is trained by Nick Zito, who is always to be respected at Belmont Park, the host site for the 2005 Breeders Cup Championships.  This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Emirates Airline Distaff Division (updated October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. In the Gold - 54
2. Ashado - 32
3. Summerly - 30
4. Smuggler - 24
5. Happy Ticket - 24
6. Memorette - 24
7. Society Selection - 22
8. Spun Sugar - 22
9. Dream of Summer - 20
10. Island Fashion - 20

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

With an astonishing nine lifetime Graded Stakes victories, including seven Grade 1 scores, and a lifetime performance record of twelve wins, four places and two shows in twenty overall races, Ashado is truly a champion.  And, oh yes, she is defending champion of the Breeders Cup Distaff, having won in 2004 as a three year-old.  And there's more.  She was the runner-up in the 2003 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Now that's what I call a resume.  What has she done lately?  Her final prep was the Beldame at Belmont Park October 1, which she won and in the process defeated the speedy sensation Happy Ticket and the powerful three year-old Sweet Symphony.  Case closed?  Not quite.  Ashado has been beaten in three of her six starts in 2005.  In two of the three defeats she ran out of the money.  What's going on?  The combination of the wear and tear of her brilliant but strenuous career, and her growing vulnerability to the sometimes heated pace of Grade 1 affairs, particularly at distances of a mile and an eighth or more, has created perceptible chinks in the armor.  Beware of jumping on the "media bandwagon" with Ashado.  It could cost you money, in terms of a lost bet, or an undervalued bet.  But make no mistake, Ashado deserves all the accolades, and Todd Pletcher will certainly have her ready to compete.  

Dream of Summer seemed a prime candidate to upset the favorite Ashado in the Grade 1 Beldame October 1.  A talented stalker, she defeated Ashado in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park in April.  However, in the Beldame, Dream of Summer never got into a rhythm, and ran a disappointing sixth.  Juan Garcia, trainer of Dream of Summer, has indicated she will not be entered in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

The Andrew Leggio trained Louisiana bred filly, Happy Ticket, blazed into the Breeders Cup spotlight by winning the Grade 3 victory in the Chicago Breeders Cup Handicap June 18, at Arlington Park, and the Grade 1 Ballerina August 28 at Saratoga.  Happy Ticket went head to head with the champion Ashado October 1 in the Beldame before yielding grudgingly in deep stretch.  Her only knock is the predominantly Louisiana bred competition which dominated her 2004 campaign.  That said, Andrew Leggio is doing a masterful job with the talented four year-old filly.

The lightly raced Bill Mott charge Sweet Symphony, a beautiful three year-old filly, dominated her fellow three year-olds in a spectacular victory in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga in August.  In the Alabama she defeated Spun Sugar, also a fine three year-old filly.  Sweet Symphony, trying her elders for the first time in the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont October 1, finished an even fourth behind the powerful triumvirate of Ashado, Happy Ticket and Society Selection.  Sweet Symphony is not be underestimated, and may be a value play in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

Sweet Symphony is not the only three year-old filly hoping to win the Breeders Cup Distaff.  Spun Sugar is trained by Todd Pletcher and captured the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan over a sloppy track at Pimlico in May.  Spun Sugar was second to Smuggler in the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in June.  Spun Sugar was a spirited second to the phenom Sweet Symphony in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga in August.

Trained by Allen Jerkens, the four year-old filly Society Selection has quietly amassed five wins, four places and three shows in Graded Stakes competition in her outstanding career.  In the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont on June 18, Society Selection ran a game second behind Ashado, although there were only five in the field.  The July 31 Grade 1 Go For Wand at Saratoga was the setting for the next battle between Society Selection and Ashado.  Ashado easily won the rematch, finishing first, some twelve lengths ahead of fourth place finisher Society Selection.  In her final prep, the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont, Society Selection finished a comfortable third behind Ashado and Happy Ticket.  Society Selection is most at home in the stalking position, and would represent a titillating wagering opportunity in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

An intriguing filly is the three year-old In the Gold, trained by the crafty Nick Zito.  She is fairly lightly raced with ten lifetime starts, but each start was carefully chosen to allow her to mature and improve toward a Breeders Cup Distaff berth.  In the Gold raced four times as a juvenile and managed a third place finish in the Grade 3 Alcibiad at Keeneland.  Early in her sophomore campaign she registered a second in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and followed that with a second in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss, both at Gulfstream Park.  She continued to improve later in the 2005 campaign, culminating in a gutsy victory in the Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont Park in September.  Zito has been pointing In the Gold toward the Breeders Cup Distaff since the get go, and she should not be underestimated.  Playing devil's advocate, one can argue In the Gold has not faced her elders in Graded Stakes competition.  And examining her pedigree, the Dam Sire Groovy may inject an unwanted dose of sprinter characteristics into In the Gold, limiting her ability to route against the best in the Distaff Division.

Saeed bin Suroor trains the four year-old filly Stellar Jayne, last year's third place finisher in the Breeders Cup Distaff.  Stellar Jayne has been training forwardly to the 2005 Distaff, and she captured the Grade 1 Ruffian Stakes at Belmont in September in gate to wire fashion.  As a three year-old, Stellar Jayne won the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont, defeating Ashado in the process, at odds of twenty-nine to one.  Stellar Jayne certainly boasts impressive credentials, and is not to be overlooked in the Distaff.

The five year-old mare Island Fashion, trained by Marcelo Polanco, is a rugged competitor with twenty-five lifetime starts, six of them wins.  Of note is her fifth place finish in the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff, in which she reached third place in the stretch before giving way after a very wide trip at Lone Star Park.  Her final prep was the October 2 Grade 2 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita, where she finished a hard fought third as the betting favorite.  Island Fashion often races against males, most recently in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August, finishing ninth.  The talented Borrego was the winner in the Pacific Classic. In the July 23 Grade 1 Vanity at Hollywood Park, Island Fashion managed a second, beaten a neck by the three year-old Splendid Blended.

The West Coast based Healthy Addiction, a four year-old filly trained by John Sadler, made a big splash by capturing the Grade 2 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita on October 2.  Healthy Addiction had not seen action since her sixth place finish in the July 3 Grade 1 Vanity at Hollywood Park, won by Splendid Blended.  Having started in only a handful of Graded Stakes races, Healthy Addiction is considered an outsider for the Breeders Cup Distaff.
 

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Distaff?

The Distaff Division is more competitive than the media may lead us to believe.  The champion filly Ashado has lost three of her six starts this year, and she is no longer invincible.  Serious challenges are certain to be mounted from several in the field, perhaps Sweet Symphony, In the Gold, Society Selection, or Stellar Jayne.  The Breeders Cup Distaff is destined to be a highly competitive affair.  To get an idea how the 2005 Distaff Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  The Breeders Cup Distaff is is rich with history.   Notable previous winners include  Personal Ensign, Azeri,  Lady's Secret, Hollywood Wildcat, Paseana,  Dance Smartly and Bayakoa.  Notable beaten favorites are Sightseek, Riboletta and Sky Beauty.

Is it possible for the 2005 Breeders Cup to produce a champion in the rich tradition of the event?  Perhaps, perhaps not.  However, with the talent present in the Distaff Division, it is guaranteed we will see a race worth remembering.