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Tuesday, October 25, 2005

(8:02 a.m. EDT)


"A Look At The Pre-Entries For The NetJets Breeders Cup 2005 Mile"
 
 
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the NetJets Mile Division (final update October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) - 110
2. Starcraft (NZ) - 88
3. Singletary - 73
4. Artie Schiller - 70
5. Rakti (GB) - 50
6. Valixir (IRE) - 46
7. Funfair (GB) - 43
8. Whipper - 22
9. Host (CHI) - 17
10. Three Valleys - 12


A few items of interest concerning this list:  The list is strongly weighted to Foreign based runners.  There are no fillies or mares on the list.
 This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the NetJets Mile Division (final update October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. Artie Schiller 24
2. Sand Springs 22
3. Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) 16
4. Singletary 16
5. Host (CHI) 12
6. Limehouse 12
7. Gulch Approval 9
8. Osidy 8
9. Silver Tree 8
10. Funfair (GB) 6
 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings
determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players?

No one knew that January 7, 2004 would be the start of one of thoroughbred racing's most exciting streaks since Cigar's record streak in 1995.  In his fifth lifetime start, an Allowance conditions event, the Brazilian bred Leroidesanimaux stormed from sixteen lengths off the pace to capture the victory.  On October 29, eight races later, and nearly ten months hence, Leroidesanimaux will attempt to win his ninth consecutive race, the Breeders Cup Mile.  During the streak, Leroidesanimaux has won three Grade 1 events, two Grade 2 events and one Grade 3 event.  His trainer is Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel.  Leroidesanimaux has won in California, New York and, most recently, in Canada.  He is the premier U. S. based grass miler, and he will take some beating.  He will undergo significant challenges from the Foreign contingent, particularly from the European based Starcraft.       

The outstanding
Starcraft, a five year-old bred in New Zealand and trained by Luca Cumani, raced exclusively in Australia and New Zealand until 2005.  In the summer of 2005 he raced in two Group 1 events in Britain, losing to the accomplished Valixir and Oratorio.  Then in the fall, in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in Paris, Starcraft put it all together and defeated the outstanding French filly Gorella Majors Cast, Valixir and Whipper.  Three weeks later he topped that effort with a brilliant performance in the Group 1 Q. E. II Stakes at Newmarket, defeating the champion Dubawi as well as Rakti.  Both the Prix du Moulin and the Q. E. II are classic one mile grass events, perfect preps for Breeders Cup Mile at Belmont Park October 29.   

One of the better horses chasing
Starcraft lately is the Irish bred Valixir, trained by the legendary Andre Fabre.  Valixir has two European Group 1 wins to his credit, including a victory over Starcraft in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at York in June.  In his most recent race, the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in Paris, Valixir finished fifth beaten four lengths by Starcraft.  Fabre will have Valixir at peak readiness for Breeders Cup Day.  

Patrick Biancone trains the up and coming filly
Gorella.  With only ten races to her credit, the precocious three year-old filly seems to get stronger every time out.  In the Group 1 Prix d'Astarte at Lonchamp July 31, Gorella finished a strong third behind the hence retired superstar filly Divine Proportions and the German filly Shapira.  She followed that performance with an unbelievable second to Starcraft, facing Europe's strongest males in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  In her U. S. debut, the Grade 1 Q. E. II Cup at Keeneland, Gorella finished  a fast closing third behind Sweet Talker and Karen's Caper.  Make no mistake, Gorella will be a handful in the Breeders Cup Mile.

No conversation about the Breeders Cup Mile is complete without mention of the defending champion,
Singletary, trained by Donald Chatlos.  Since his victory in the Breeders Cup Mile at Lone Star Park last October, Singletary has won twice, both were Grade 2 events, in five starts.   In the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita in March, his first start after a long freshening, Singletary was soundly defeated by Leroidesanimaux, who was in the midst of his winning streak.  In the Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar in July, Singletary finished a respectable third, and Singletary won his final prep, the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita October 8.  Singletary will a hard time repeating in 2005.

A latecomer to Breeders Cup Mile scene is the Chilian bred
Host, trained by Todd Pletcher.  Host established himself as a respectable Grade 2 miler in late 2004.  Unraced for eight months, he burst back on the scene with a last to first breathtaking victory in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf at Keeneland October 8.  To be fair, the Shadwell field was woefully weak for a Grade 1 classification, and Host will have his hands full in the Breeders Cup Mile.

The Irish bred
Majors Cast, handled by Jeremy Noseda, saved his best for last with a strong third in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  Majors Cast finished only two and one-half lengths shy of Starcraft, and a neck back of Gorella, in probably the best performance of his life.  Prior to the Prix du Moulin Major Cast has exhibited promise, but nothing that would foreshadow such a strong performance.  Usually, the Gods of Horse Racing only let the commoners taste such greatness once in a lifetime, so we'll expect Major Cast to return to Earth in his next performance, which may be the Breeders Cup Mile on October 29.

Robert Collet trains the French based
Whipper.  After a freshening from late October 2004 to May 2005, Whipper seemed to blossom in the French Classics, first the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, and then the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  Whipper finished second at odds of six to one in the Prix Jacques le Marois, finishing ahead of the accomplished pair of Valixir and Divine Proportions, only a length and a half back of the spectacular Dubawi.  Following up on that superb effort, Whipper finished a very respectable fourth in the Prix du Moulin, won by the powerful Starcraft.  Having performed so admirably in these two key races, Whipper demands respect in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Sand Springs, a five year-old mare by Dynaformer, trained by William Mott, joins Gorella as the only two fillies and mares pre-entered in the Breeders Cup Mile.  Unlike Gorella, Sand Springs has never faced the boys, a tremendous disadvantage for this level of competition.  Sand Springs has captured three Graded Stakes events versus fillies and mares in 2005, including a victory over the best U. S. based female miler Intercontinental.

Artie Schiller, trained by James Jerkens, is one of the hardest working U. S. based milers, with thirteen starts in 2004 and 2005.  Artie Schiller is talented by U. S. Turf racing standards, but only another apple in the barrel by European Turf standards.  He will have trouble against his overseas counterparts.

The British bred
Funfair began his American campaign in July at Delaware Park with a victory in a modest Optional Claiming race.  A little more than a month later, Funfair captured the Grade 2 Kelso at Belmont Park, defeating Artie Schiller by a head.  Funfair is mildly interesting as a longshot play, but at six years old he has never reached the heights of European Turf racing despite thirteen overseas races.  He would be a surprise in the Breeders Cup Mile.

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Mile?

The Mile Division is absolutely loaded in talent in 2005.  The overseas contingent is particularly strong, with such standouts as Starcraft, Whipper and Gorella.  Least we forget the U. S. based Leroidesanimaux, in the midst of the streak of a lifetime.  To get an idea how the 2005 Mile Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  Notable previous winners include Val Royal, War Chant, and two time winners Da Hoss and Lure.  Notable beaten favorites are Artie Schiller, Rock of Gibraltar, In Excess and Favorite Trick

There have been some historic raaces in the history of the Breeders Cup Mile, and 2005 will add to that tradition.  The 2005 Breeders Cup Mile promises to be a monumental struggle from start to end. 


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Jim Lambert
President
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com



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