Suddenly a pattern begins to emerge.  Nine "in the money" finishers in the Juvenile were also "in the money" finishers in the following year's Kentucky Derby.  I don't know about you, but that warms the cockles of my heart.  Of course it makes sense that the best of the two year-old crop will compete well in the three year-old campaign.

Is there a pattern underneath the surface that provides further clues?  Perhaps certain race courses favor Kentucky Derby hopefuls.  Let's take an in depth look.

Churchill Downs has hosted five Breeders Cups, more than any other track, and it has produced no Kentucky Derby winners but it has produced four in the money finishers.  This stands to reason because Churchill Downs is the host for the Kentucky Derby.  Belmont Park, on the other hand, has hosted four Breeders Cups and has produced no Derby winners and only one in the money finisher.  The two California tracks, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita Park, have hosted a combined six Breeders Cups and produced two Derby winners and six in the money finishers.  Lone Star Park, Woodbine (Canada), Aqueduct, Arlington Park and Gulfstream Park have hosted a combined seven Breeders Cups, producing one Kentucky Derby winner and three in the money finishers.

Woodbine hosted the 1996 Breeders Cup and not one of the Juvenile participants made the trip to Kentucky for the Derby.   The only colt that dramatically improved his performance from the Juvenile to the Derby was Sea Hero, who languished in seventh place for the Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992, and then went on to take the 1993 Kentucky Derby, skimming the rail.  Usually it is the other way around.  There have been many Juvenile winners whose Derby performances can best be described as train wrecks.  In the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Capote finished 16th.  In the 1992 Derby, Juvenile winner Arazi finished 8th.  In the 1998 Derby, Favorite Trick had a similar fate, finishing 8th. The next year, 1999, Answer Lively finished 10th in the Derby, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous year.  The carnage continued in the 2000 Derby, with Juvenile winner Anees running 13th.  Most recently, in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Wilko finished an uninspiring 6th. 

The only filly to win the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era is Winning Colors in 1988, and as a filly Winning Colors was not eligible for the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and did not race in the 1987 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

Statistics On All Starters Of Both Breeders Cup Juvenile And the Kentucky Derby

There are 53 colts which started both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby.  Thirty of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 23 finished out of the money in the Juvenile.  Of the 53 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was eighth.  Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so the disparity is probably not so great.  Of the 30 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance. 

Is there a lesson here?  I believe there is, and it is that from the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing, and with it his overall athletic ability.  With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast three year-olds.    

Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues?

The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore.  As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore, my best bet of the day, but I digress.  In the twenty-two Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows.  His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor.  To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas.  Who has the three?  Bob Baffert.  Several trainers own two in the money finishes.

Two questions rise to mind.  How does Lukas do it?  Does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success?  The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another.  Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiarin McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart.  Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record in 2005. 

What about the second question, do D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds?  The answer is yes, and the answer is no.  The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era.  But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas is winning the Kentucky Derby with are not the same horses Lukas is winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with.  The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996).  Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).  It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses.

I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas.  No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas.  It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002.  Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races.  The playing field has become level in recent years.  In the last seven Derbies, there have been seven different winning trainers.  In the last ten Breeders Cup Juveniles, there have been ten different winning trainers    

Which Horse Will Win the 2006 Kentucky Derby?

The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made.  Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections.  Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce.  Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge.  This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run.  His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all.  Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life.  This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period.  Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns. 

The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates.  A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns.  The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges. 

There are many potential challengers to capture the roses on the first Saturday in May.  To see my notes on the top Derby contenders  click here.