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Saturday October 13, 2007 |
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The
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
Breeders Cup 2007 Series
Learning From The Past: The [Churchill Downs] Bias Of The 2006
Breeders Cup In deciphering how a horse does on a particular
surface, it sometimes gets more complicated than meets the eye. For example, Mother Nature can intervene and
create a “speed bias” where there wasn’t one before. A perfect example is Breeders Cup Day, There has been a big debate (in the
press) whether there really was a “rail bias” on Breeders Cup Day. But there is no denying that of the five
races run on dirt, no less than four were won by horses breaking from the
inside post. Dreaming Of Anna used the rail to wire the Juvenile Fillies field
by a very large margin. Street Sense ($32.40) hugged the rail
under Calvin Borel (a favorite tactic of Borel’s) and simply ran away from the
competition in the Juvenile. Thor’s Echo ($33.20) broke from the rail
in the Sprint and, although he ran most of the race in the three and four-paths,
he dominated the Sprint and was a huge surprise. And Round
Pond ($29.80) was also a huge surprise in the Distaff, again breaking from
the one-hole and riding the rail to victory.
These four rail-riding wins came in the first four (of five) races on
dirt in the Breeders Cup program. The
first rail-riding winner (Dreaming Of
Anna) came at The rail bias argument was
bolstered on February 10, 2007 when Dreaming Of Anna, in her 2007 debut [her
first race since her Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly Championship performance] in the midst of Kentucky Derby fever speculation by
her connections, finished a lackluster and well beaten third as the 2-to-5
heavy favorite in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes at
Gulfstream
Some tracks don’t need rain to create a
speed bias. Courses like Pimlico (Maryland), Laurel (Maryland), Bay
Meadows (California), Golden Gate (California), Delta Downs (Louisiana),
Calder (Florida), Charles Town (Virginia), and Tampa Bay Downs (Florida)
all seem to favor speed. Some argue it’s because of sharp turns, some
argue it’s because of short straight-a-ways, and some argue it’s because
of extra hard surfaces. Whatever the reason, front runners perform very
well at these venues. One obvious reason that Delta Downs and Charles
Town favor speed is the length (perimeter) of the track, which is only
three-quarters of a mile. These tracks are known in the vernacular as
“bull rings” for their design. It seems the racehorses are always
entering or leaving a turn, and never running straight!
What about the Monmouth Park grass course?
Most U.S. turf courses are less than a mile around. This is a
direct result of race track design, as the turf courses are generally
built inside the perimeter of a dirt course. Aqueduct race course
in Ozone Park, New York has a seven furlong turf course built inside of
a one mile dirt course built inside of a one and one-eighth mile dirt
course.
A brand new turf course was
installed at Monmouth Park in early 2006, and made its debut in the
summer of 2006.
The Monmouth Park turf course is
a seven furlong course built inside of a one-mile dirt course, as was
its predecessor. Unlike its predecessor, the footing is very sure
[at least until the new grass course gets beat up] and the turf is
absolutely beautiful. The Monmouth turf course is much like other
grass courses in the East, except it is prone to traffic problems.
This is a common problem for seven furlong turf courses, as the turns
tend to be sharp, and when the horses turn for home the bumping and
grinding can get pretty serious. This is very bad news for the
European grass runners, who are not used to such short turf courses
[they prefer the sweeping turns of the Belmont turf courses in America].
But then again, the European grass runners are the best in the world.
It sounds like a Mexican standoff.
We don’t ignore the racing form just
because we spot a rail bias or other speed bias. We simply make
adjustments for it. We use common sense. If a front runner at
Monmouth Park is
back in the same company that he always shows speed in, we give him a
pace edge. But if he has recent races at Monmouth Park and couldn’t hold his
speed for an entire race, we raise our eyebrows a little, because this
guy can’t close the deal even with a speed bias working for him. We have
to think on our feet. Generally a fast track means just that, a
fast track. And a dry, fast track merits a high level of
confidence. That doesn’t means you can’t make a bet on a sloppy
track or on a track with a working bias, but you have to be aware that
more surprises occur under these “unusual” conditions. And remember
the lessons of Breeders Cup 2006.
Handicapping 101: Lifetime Races Over The Course
How a horse fits the course is a
mysterious but essential clue to deciphering the outcome of the race.
Horses that are stabled at a particular track have a “home field
advantage.” They generally sleep in the same stall, work out on the same
course that they race on, and do not suffer from the rigors of excessive
travel. A horse’s home field advantage gives the handicapper an
advantage, too. The more races a horse has on a course, the easier it is
for a handicapper to gauge that horse’s true ability. The best and worst
races a horse has over the course serve as ideal bookends to the typical
race the horse will run the next time out. Handicapping 201: Profiling A Breeders Cup Winner The profile of a graded stakes (or handicap) winner is not complicated. The best horses in the business are on display in graded stakes races, and the horses that continually perform well at this level are going to be contenders over and over again. Generally, a stakes caliber horse will hold his form much longer than an allowance or claiming horse. However, if two similarly talented stakes horses meet, and one has 15 to 25 lifetime races, and the other has 30 or more races, the edge goes to the horse with 15 to 25 races. Graded stakes races are like prize fights between the top horses. They are run at remarkable speeds, and over time a stakes horse inevitably collects wear and tear (much like a top NFL running back who takes too may hits). The best stakes horses are full of heart and they don’t stop running, even after injury. Pine Island (2006 Breeders Cup Distaff), Go For Wand (1990 Breeders Cup Distaff), and Barbaro (2006 Preakness) are among the champion thoroughbreds who lost their lives to the sport.
Once we have found a stakes contender
who is not over raced, we need to make sure he is suited to the course
and to the pace of the race. Consider the
brilliant sprinter Lost In The Fog in the 2005
Breeders Cup Sprint at Belmont Park. Now consider the talented sprinter Silver Train [eventual winner of the 2005 Breeders Cup Sprint]. In the months before Breeders Cup, Silver Train had 4 races over the Belmont course with high Beyers of 108 and 110. This is what we’re looking for: a horse for the course. Silver Train paid a handsome $25.80 to win in the Breeders Cup Sprint, while odds-on favorite Lost In The Fog languished in seventh. Finding top stakes horses with several races over the course is a common problem for handicappers. From earlier, " if the horse does not have many races over a particular course, that’s fertile ground for surprise outcomes, regardless of quality. That’s why the Breeders Cup World Championships, forum for some of the richest purses in the world, consistently produce high payouts. Racing’s elite converge from all over the world to a venue which changes every year. Very few of these horses have many, if any, races over the course, and big surprises generally follow." For Breeders Cup, there is no easy answer. But there is a strategy. We design a profile of a graded stakes winner. And here is what it looks like. The ideal profile of a graded stakes winner is a top horse that: (1) is not over raced (2) has recent excellent graded stakes race over the course (3) has demonstrated he is well suited to today’s pace (4) has not established a pattern of losing in graded stakes races (5) has an established winning trainer. The age of the horses in a graded stakes race is important. This leads to some general observations about age and form: (1) 2-year-olds are wildly unpredictable (2) 3-year-old males tend to settle down in the spring onward (3) fillies can be unpredictable until the spring of their 4th year (4) 3-year-old colts and up are generally predictable (5) 4-year-old fillies and up are generally predictable. A horseplayer should never be betting favorites in stakes races for 2-year-olds. It’s not economical. The profile of a graded stakes winner is the same for younger horses as it is for older horses, but the older horses are much more likely to run to form. Weight For Age
Breeders Cup World Championship races are run weight for age.
In a weight for age stakes, the 2-year-olds are assigned a given
weight (122 for colts & geldings and 119 for fillies), the 3-year-olds are assigned a given
weight (124 in the Sprint and 122 in the Classic), and the 4-year-olds
and up are assigned a higher weight (126). Fillies and mares are
generally allowed a 3-pound allowance. All these weights come from
the Scale of Weights. Within each age category, heavier weights are
assigned for shorter distances, and lighter weights are assigned for
longer distances. Also, the younger horses are allowed to carry
less weight earlier in the year [while they are still growing and
maturing]. The 2007 World Championships At Monmouth Park This year's culminating event is the two-day World Championships (October 26 and 27) staging 11 races at Monmouth Park, New Jersey worth $23 million in purses. Three new $1 million races will be introduced on Friday, October 26. They are the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (for 3-year-olds and up), the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (for 3-year-olds and up fillies & mares), and the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.
The
Breeders Cup
2007
Edition
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