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Statistics On Horses That Started In Both A Breeders Cup Juvenile And A Kentucky Derby

There are now 61 colts which started in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby. Thirty-three of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 28 finished out of the money in the Juvenile. Of the 61 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was between eighth and ninth. Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so a fifth place Juvenile finish is probably not so different than an eighth or ninth place Derby finish. Of the 33 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance. This is true even for the 2007 Derby.  Despite the victory by Street Sense, Circular Quay ran 6th and Great Hunter ran 13th in the Derby.  The average Derby finish of these three colts, who finished one-two-three in the 2006 Juvenile, is a trifle better than seventh ((1+6+13)/3=6.7) On the surface, this seems to be a surprising result. Why did the horses that hit the board in the Juvenile finish seventh, on average, in the Kentucky Derby?

Is there a lesson here? I believe there is, and it centers around the physical development of the modern thoroughbred. From the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing. A colt changes during this period from a "gangly teenager" to a "mature adult." In the midst of these changes, the overall athletic ability of a horse can improve dramatically. With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast and powerful three year-olds. And this season of change that takes place between Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby permanently alters the landscape for Kentucky Derby contenders.  This appears to have happened to Stormello, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter, and Teuflesberg.  Circular Quay, though, may be keeping pace with his respectable 6th place Derby finish.  Colts like Curlin and Hard Spun are late developers and these colts will be the ones to become great handicap horses.  And then there is Street Sense.  He is the exception, not the rule.

Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues?

The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore. As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore. In the twenty-three Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows. His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor. To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas. Who has the three? Bob Baffert. Several trainers own two in the money finishes.

Two questions rise to mind. How did Lukas do it? And does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success? The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another. Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart. Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record for trainers in 2006, incredibly breaking his own record established only one year earlier. Kiaran McLaughlin has achieved greatness in his own right, having trained 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2006 Breeders Cup Classic winner Invasor for Sheik Hamdan's Shadwell Stable.

What about the second question, do D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds? The answer is yes, and the answer is no. The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era. But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas is winning the Kentucky Derby with are not the same horses Lukas is winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with. The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996). Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999). It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses.

I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas. No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas. It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races.

The playing field has become level in recent years. With Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, there have been nine different winning trainers in the last nine Derbies.  Nafzger, though, also trained the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner Unbridled.  In the last eleven runnings of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, there have been no less than eleven different winning trainers. Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, is in that number as well, and he seems to have eclipsed the bright, shining star of Todd Pletcher, at least for the moment.  Pletcher sent five horses postward in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, his best finish a sixth by Circular Quay.

How Did Street Sense Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby?

The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made. Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections. Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce. Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge. This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run. His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all. Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life. This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period. Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns.

The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates. A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns. The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges. Even when the campaign of a Derby hopeful is in full bloom, a sudden injury can derail Derby plans for even a top prospect. Such was the case for the connections of Stevie Wonderboy in 2006.

Somehow Street Sense overcame these obstacles.  We know that Carl Nafzger handles the talented Street Sense, a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby. Carl Nafzger used the Blue Grass Stakes (on the Keeneland Polytrack) as the final Kentucky Derby prep for Street Sense, and this could have helped keep the colt sound.  Remember, Hard Spun used a similar strategy in leading up to his Derby second place finish.  Hard Spun's final prep was the Lane's End, also run on the forgiving Polytrack surface.  Street Sense had only two preps in 2007 (the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes) instead of the traditional three preps.  And Nafzger, Calvin Borel, and Street Sense did the rest.

In February of 2007, I listed my top ten Derby hopefuls, knowing the list was going to be inaccurate.  But this year, it held up well.