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April 14, 2008 Derby Top 5 Updated April 16, 2008
An Article From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

"The Derby Jinx Is Dead, And Is It Finally Time To Stick A Fork In War Pass?"

by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Street Sense Was The First To Break The Kentucky Derby Jinx. It Looks Like War Pass Will Not Duplicate The Feat.

Before Street Sense stormed home to pass pacesetter Hard Spun to capture the 2007 Kentucky Derby, no Breeders Cup Juvenile winner had ever won the Kentucky Derby. Not one. This is known as the Kentucky Derby jinx, and the jinx is finally dead. Street Sense won the Juvenile in November, 2006, and then the Kentucky Derby in May, 2007.

Before Street Sense, only two Breeders Cup Juvenile winners had even managed to finish in the money in a Kentucky Derby. That feat was first accomplished by Chief's Crown, who won the inaugural Breeders Cup Juvenile at Hollywood Park in 1984, and then went on to finish third in the 1985 Kentucky Derby. And ten years later Timber Country won the 1994 Juvenile at Churchill Downs, and finished third the following year in the Kentucky Derby. The Derby win by Street Sense marks the first time a Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner won the subsequent Kentucky Derby in the entire twenty-four year history of the Breeders Cup.

Update [April 19, 2008]: War Pass, the reigning 2-year-old champion colt, was declared out of the Kentucky Derby by trainer Nick Zito. Zito was reported by the Daily Racing Form as saying War Pass had developed a minor leg fracture.

War Pass, the brilliant winner of the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Monmouth Park, was supposed to win the Tampa Bay Derby (on March 15) on his way to the 2008 Kentucky Derby, to try and duplicate what Street Sense did a year ago. That was the plan, but as well all know, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Big Truck ran down Atoned to get the glory, and War Pass finished dead last and was never really in the race once the real running began. No one knows what happened, but the news can't be good for the War Pass camp. More bad news was on its way, as War Pass shortened stride badly in the decisive stages of the Wood Memorial, only to lose the decision to a surging Tale Of Ekati.

War Pass is a 3-year-old colt by Cherokee Run out of the Mr. Prospector mare Vue. Cherokee Run specialized in long distance sprinting, but he also performed well in routes, winning at 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 2 Dwyer and finishing second in the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles the same year [1993]. As a 2-year-old War Pass was a convincing debut winner for Nick Zito [a trainer who doesn't ask much of first-time starters] in a Saratoga maiden allowance [1:10.20]. War Pass broke poorly but recovered very quickly to take a commanding lead winning easily. War Pass followed with a victory in a first-level allowance [also at Saratoga] at one mile. War Pass then headed to Belmont to run in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at one mile on the Belmont main track. The Champagne attracted [in addition to War Pass] three top Breeders Cup Juvenile prospects [Ready's Image, Majestic Warrior and Lantana Mob]. No problems for War Pass in the Champagne Stakes. War Pass left no doubt from gate to wire as the fleet-footed colt simply outran the competition. And the competition included the talented 2-year-olds Majestic Warrior [finished sixth] , Ready's Image [who was last] , and Lantana's Mob [ran fourth]. War Pass set wicked fractions for the half [45.72] and three-quarters [1:10.24] on his way to a solid mile [1:36.12 ] to win the Champagne. War Pass had the pedigree and the talent to be a major factor in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, which he dominated on the sloppy Monmouth Park main track in October. War Pass has earned the privilege of wearing the Breeders Cup Juvenile crown heading into the [2008] Kentucky Derby campaign. Is he a deserving king? I wasn't so sure about that even before the Tampa Bay Derby fiasco, and now I have no more lingering doubts after the Wood Memorial result.

Last year his coronation took place on a rain-soaked speed-biased Monmouth Park main track. As far as Kentucky Derby hopes for 2008, I’d look to Pyro as much or more as I'd look to War Pass. Pyro finished second to War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he was closing fast. Pyro made his 2008 debut at the Fair Grounds a memorable one with a scintillating last-to-first move to win the Risen Star Stakes going away. He followed that win with a dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby, also at the Fair Grounds.

But last year War Pass did look very, very good winning the Juvenile at Monmouth in the slop. He was never really threatened at all on that day, case closed. Only the long shot Globalization offered him any resistance [and that didn’t last long]. The deep closer Pyro came on very late for second, but he was five lengths beaten by a War Pass who was already throttling down. War Pass got three-quarters in 1:09.65, a mile in 1:35.64, and a mile and sixteenth in 1:42.76. He closed out the last 2 ½ furlongs in 33.11 [which works out to a little over 6 3/5 seconds per half-furlong]. That’s not really what you’re looking for in a Derby winner. War Pass was sired by Cherokee Run , a long distance sprinter, so I think the 2007 Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner will perform best at a mile or less in his career. Nick Zito had other more lofty expectations, but then came the terrible performance by War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby. And the final nail in the coffin was a second-place finish in a slowly run Wood Memorial.

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Why Is It So Tough To Win The Juvenile And The Derby?

Why is this "double" of the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby so elusive? The odds are always stacked against the Juvenile winner. The issue was not even on the table in 2006 due to the unfortunate injury to 2005 Juvenile champion Stevie Wonderboy. In 2007, Street Sense stayed healthy and went on to win the Kentucky Derby for trainer Carl Nafzger. Carl Nafzger handled the talented Street Sense, runaway winner of the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Street Sense is a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby, but on May 5, 2007 his son Street Sense did the family proud. Carl Nafzger will go down in horse racing history as the first, and as yet only, trainer to accomplish the enormous training feat of capturing both the Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby with the same horse.

Nick Zito trains War Pass, and Zito is still thinking history. Zito entered War Pass in a $60,000 overnight stakes at Gulfstream Park, Sunday, February 24, which was the 2008 debut of War Pass. War Pass won the one mile affair easily against an overmatched field, and earned a respectable Beyer of 97 for his efforts. Zito looked next at the March 15 Tampa Bay Derby for the first real test in 2008 for War Pass, and he failed the test miserably. The effort by War Pass in the G1 Wood Memorial was much better, but the glass was only half full. Now Zito has to be clearly concerned by the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby, and the ability of his speedy colt to get the distance.

In the old days, there were juvenile champions well before Breeder's Cup came on the scene. And before Breeders Cup, some Juvenile champions did go on to win the Kentucky Derby. In fact, three in a row did it from 1977 to 1979. The Kentucky Derby winners in those years were Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid, and each was a 2-year-old champion the prior year. Times have changed dramatically, though. The prize money has grown, causing the Derby field sizes to expand to the maximum of twenty. The ensuing traffic jams that these large fields spawn make a clean trip in the Derby a near impossibility. Also, breeding for speed has become incredibly selective, such that durability and soundness have been left out in the cold. So how does juvenile success really relate to Kentucky Derby performance?

For more clues we look to the twenty-four year history of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and to the twenty-three Kentucky Derbies that have now followed. Let's go back in the time capsule to that first Breeders Cup Juvenile in 1984 at Hollywood Park in California. Chief's Crown wasn't the only colt that embarked on the long journey from California to Churchill Downs in Kentucky in the spring of 1985. A talented colt by the name of Spend A Buck also took that journey. Do you remember Spend A Buck, the winner of the 1985 Kentucky Derby? That is the same Spend A Buck that finished third in the 1984 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 1 ½ lengths behind the winner Chief's Crown. So, even before Street Sense, there is more than meets the eye than a blanket condemnation of all Breeders Juvenile winners.

The History Of The Breeders Cup Juvenile And the Kentucky Derby

The true story is more complicated. It is an oversight to track only the Breeders Cup Juvenile winners. That is far too simplistic an approach. We should at least follow the fortunes of all the juveniles that managed to finish in the money in the Juvenile. In 2007, five other colts besides Street Sense completed the journey from the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile to the 2007 Kentucky Derby. They are Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Stormello, Teuflesberg, and Scat Daddy.

The Breeders Cup is now twenty-four years old. It began in 1984, with the most recent rendition last year in 2007. The Juvenile has been run in each of those twenty-four years, and to date twenty-three Kentucky Derby runnings have followed the next year.

Here is a list of all top three Breeders Cup Juvenile finishers that also managed a top three finish in the Kentucky Derby the following year.

Year of Breeders Cup Juvenile	Name of Horse	Breeders Cup Juvenile Finish	Kentucky Derby Finish The Next Year
1984	Chief's Crown	Win	Show
1984	Spend A Buck	Show	Win
1986	Alysheba	Show	Win
1988	Easy Goer	Place	Place
1993	Blumin Affair	Place	Show
1994	Timber Country	Win	Show
1994	Tejano Run	Show	Place
1998	Cat Thief	Show	Show
2004	Afleet Alex	Place	Show
2006	Street Sense	Win	Win

Suddenly a pattern begins to emerge. Ten "in the money" finishers in the Juvenile were also "in the money" finishers in the following year's Kentucky Derby. It took Street Sense to break the jinx, but this list should give hope to future Breeders Cup Juvenile winners. Of course it makes sense that the best of the two year-old crop will compete well in the three year-old campaign.

Is there a pattern beneath the surface that provides further clues? Perhaps certain race courses favor Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Let's take an in depth look.

Race Course	Hosted Breeders Cup	Derby Winners Produced	Derby In the Money Finishers Produced
Arlington Park	1	0	0
Aqueduct	1	0	0
Belmont Park	4	0	1
Churchill Downs	6	1	5
Gulfstream Park	3	1	2
Hollywood Park	3	1	3
Lone Star Park	1	0	1
Monmouth Park	1	?	?
Santa Anita Park	3	1	3
Woodbine	1	0	0

Churchill Downs has hosted six Breeders Cups (including 2006), more than any other track, and it has produced the only Kentucky Derby winner (Street Sense). Churchill Downs has produced a total of five in the money finishers. This stands to reason because Churchill Downs is the host for the Kentucky Derby, and horses with an affinity to the track stand to do very well. Belmont Park, on the other hand, has hosted four Breeders Cups and has produced no Derby winners and only one in the money finisher. The two California tracks, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita Park, have hosted a combined six Breeders Cups and produced two Derby winners and six in the money finishers. Now that synthetic surfaces [like Polytrack, Cushion Track, and Tapeta Track] are installed in California, the rules of the game are forever changed. The chance that a colt will win the Juvenile on a synthetic track and then win the Kentucky Derby on conventional dirt is almost nil. Is that progress? I don't think so, and not many others in the game think so, either.

Lone Star Park, Woodbine (Canada), Aqueduct, Arlington Park and Gulfstream Park have hosted a combined seven Breeders Cups, producing one Kentucky Derby winner and three in the money finishers. The jury is still out this year for Monmouth Park. Among the colts that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Monmouth last year, second place finisher Pyro looks easily the best Derby prospect right now. War Pass, who won the Juvenile, is fading fast from the picture, while fourth place finisher Tale Of Ekati is right back in the running with a victory over War Pass in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Last year's Juvenile third place finisher Kodiak Kowboy remains on the fringe.

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Woodbine hosted the 1996 Breeders Cup and not one of the Juvenile participants made the trip to Kentucky for the Derby. Two participants (Brother Derek and Private Vow) in the 2005 Breeders Cup, held at Belmont Park, made the trip to Kentucky in 2006. However, none of the top three 2005 Juvenile finishers, Stevie Wonderboy, Henny Hughes, or First Samurai, ran in the 2006 Derby. Street Sense put a stop to that trend by starting in, and winning, the 2007 Kentucky Derby. He was accompanied to Louisville by five other Juvenile starters (Great Hunter, Stormello, Circular Quay, Teuflesberg, and Scat Daddy) but none of the others hit the board. Circular Quay finished 6th, Great Hunter 13th, Teuflesberg 17th, Scat Daddy 18th, and Stormello 19th. The five others besides Street Sense averaged a 14th place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and this has been the rule rather than the exception. And remember, Circular Quay and Great Hunter finished a very respectable second and third, respectively, in the 2006 Juvenile. This illustrates how amazing Street Sense's "daily double" of the Juvenile and the Derby really is. The top three finishers in the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile were War Pass, Pyro, and Kodiak Kowboy. Tale Of Ekati finished fourth.

The only colt that dramatically improved his performance from the Juvenile to the Derby was Sea Hero, who languished in seventh place for the Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992, and then went on to take the 1993 Kentucky Derby, skimming the rail. Usually it is the other way around. There have been many Juvenile winners whose Derby performances can best be described as train wrecks. In the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Capote finished 16th. In the 1992 Derby, Juvenile winner Arazi finished eighth. In the 1998 Derby, Favorite Trick had a similar fate, finishing eighth. The next year, 1999, Answer Lively finished tenth in the Derby, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous year. The carnage continued in the 2000 Derby, with Juvenile winner Anees running 13th. More recently, in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Wilko finished an uninspiring sixth. 2005 Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy did not run in the 2006 Derby due to injury. And then there was Street Sense, who broke the mold and won both the Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby.

The only filly to win the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era is Winning Colors in 1988, and as a filly Winning Colors did not race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and also did not race in the 1987 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

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Statistics On Horses That Started In Both A Breeders Cup Juvenile And A Kentucky Derby

There are now 61 colts which started in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby. Thirty-three of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 28 finished out of the money in the Juvenile. Of the 61 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was between eighth and ninth. Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so a fifth place Juvenile finish is probably not so different than an eighth or ninth place Derby finish. Of the 33 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance. This is true even for the 2007 Derby. Despite the victory by Street Sense, Circular Quay ran sixth and Great Hunter ran 13th in the Derby. The average Derby finish of these three colts, who finished one-two-three in the 2006 Juvenile, is a trifle better than seventh ((1+6+13)/3=6.7). On the surface, this seems to be a surprising result. Why did the horses that hit the board in the Juvenile finish seventh, on average, in the Kentucky Derby?

Is there a lesson here? I believe there is, and it centers around the physical development of the modern thoroughbred. From the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing. A colt changes during this period from a "gangly teenager" to a "mature adult." In the midst of these changes, the overall athletic ability of a horse can improve dramatically. With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast and powerful three year-olds. And this season of change that takes place between Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby permanently alters the landscape for Kentucky Derby contenders. This appears to have happened to Stormello, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter, and Teuflesberg. Circular Quay, though, may be keeping pace with his respectable sixth place Derby finish. Colts like Curlin and Hard Spun are late developers and these colts will be the ones to become great handicap horses. And then there is Street Sense. He is the exception, not the rule.

From my observations, the colt that most personifies physical improvement from his juvenile to his 3-year-old campaign is Pyro. He was a gangly looking teenager last year, and he is a muscle bound athlete in 2008. Look out for Pyro in the Kentucky Derby. Denis Of Cork, the Southwest Stakes winner, is also quite a physical specimen, and he looked great winning the Southwest Stakes. However Denis Of Cork took a big step backwards in the G2 Illinois Derby, inexplicably finishing out of the money.

Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues?

The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore. As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore. In the twenty-four Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows. His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor. To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas. Who has the three? Bob Baffert and Nick Zito. Several trainers own two in the money finishes, including Steve Asmussen who got his two in the 2007 Juvenile (Pyro and Kodiak Kowboy).

Two questions rise to mind. How did Lukas do it? And does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success? The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another. Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart. Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record for trainers in 2007, incredibly breaking his own record established only one year earlier. Kiaran McLaughlin has achieved greatness in his own right, having trained 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2006 Breeders Cup Classic winner Invasor for Sheik Hamdan's Shadwell Stable. And Steve Asmussen, trainer of Horse of the Year Culrin in 2007, appears to be following Pletcher's blueprint and now rivals Pletcher for top American trainer.

What about the second question, did D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds? The answer is yes, and the answer is no. The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era. But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas was winning the Kentucky Derby with were not the same horses Lukas was winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with. The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996). Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999). It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses.

I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas. No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas. It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races.

The playing field has become level in recent years. With Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, there have been nine different winning trainers in the last nine Derbies. Nafzger, though, also trained the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner Unbridled. In the last thirteen runnings of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, there have been no less than thirteen different winning trainers. Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, is in that number as well, although he is now nearing the end of his career. Todd Pletcher sent five horses postward in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, his best finish a sixth by Circular Quay. Nick Zito, trainer of War Pass, has a pair of Derby winners [Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994].

How Did Street Sense Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby?

The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made. Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections. Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce. Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge. This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run. His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all. Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life. This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period. Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns.

The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates. A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns. The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges. Even when the campaign of a Derby hopeful is in full bloom, a sudden injury can derail Derby plans for even a top prospect. Such was the case for the connections of Stevie Wonderboy in 2006.

Somehow Street Sense overcame these obstacles. We know that Carl Nafzger handled the talented Street Sense, a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby. Carl Nafzger used the Blue Grass Stakes (on the Keeneland Polytrack) as the final Kentucky Derby prep for Street Sense, and this could have helped keep the colt sound. Remember, Hard Spun used a similar strategy in leading up to his Derby second place finish. Hard Spun's final prep was the Lane's End, also run on the forgiving Polytrack surface. Street Sense had only two preps in 2007 (the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes) instead of the traditional three preps. And Nafzger, Calvin Borel, and Street Sense did the rest.

In February of 2007, I listed my top ten Derby hopefuls, knowing the list was going to be inaccurate. But it held up pretty well.

2007 DERBY CONTENDER	TRAINER
Nobiz Like Shobiz	Barclay Tagg
Street Sense	Carl Nafzger
Circular Quay	Todd Pletcher
Scat Daddy	Todd Pletcher
Great Hunter	Doug O'Neil
E Z Warrior	Bob Baffert
C P West	Nick Zito
Teuflesberg	Jamie Sanders
U D Ghetto	Anthony Reinstedlar
Hard Spun	Larry Jones

TOP 5 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDER LIST Updated April 16, 2008 For Your Triple Crown 2008 Membership Click Here

RANKING

2008 DERBY CONTENDER

TRAINER

1

Big Brown

Richard Dutrow, Jr.

2

Gayego

Paulo Lobo

3

Colonel John

Eoin Harty

4

Pyro

Steve Asmussen

5

Z Fortune

Steve Asmussen

April 16 Update: A minor update to the Derby Top 5 today. Denis Of Cork looks unable to make the cut in terms of graded stakes earnings. So we turn to Steve Asmussen and Arkansas Derby runner-up Z Fortune to replace Denis Of Cork in the Derby Top 5. A soothsayer gazed at my palm and advised: "If you believe in Gayego, you must believe in Z Fortune."

April 14 Update: O.K., everybody, I warned you about Pyro in the G1 Blue Grass: "Don't get too excited if he doesn't have a great race, because Polytrack results are not reliable for forecasting performance on conventional dirt." The big problem is how to interpret his unenthusiastic performance (how's that for understatement). Pyro beat just two horses for gosh sakes, and essentially we need to look the other way. What's that, you say? Ignore it, are you crazy? As a minor concession, Pyro drops down to fourth in the Derby Top 5, but he stays firmly in the list. For you math wizards out there, Polytrack ≠ Conventional Dirt. A case in point, look to Monba, the winner of the Blue Grass on Saturday. Monba was as bad in the Fountain of Youth as Pyro was in the Blue Grass, maybe worse. Yeah, I know, he suffered a nasty cut on his right rear leg in the Fountain of Youth, but he finished dead last. The Fountain of Youth is run on dirt, the Blue Grass is run on Polytrack, Monba loves Polytrack, and remember Polytrack ≠ Conventional Dirt. Enough about the Blue Grass, Monba and Cowboy Cal are going to the Kentucky Derby, so what. Monba maybe could run well in the Derby, I'll buy that, but Cowboy Cal won't because he hates dirt and his pedigree hates dirt, too. I think I hear a funeral dirge in the distance, who's funeral is it? It has to be Blackberry Road's Derby chances that just died (in the Arkansas Derby). It was a quick and merciful death, so those of you with Blackberry Road in the futures pool can hold your own private ceremony for your bruised Blackberry tickets. Those of you smart enough to have Gayego, it's time to celebrate. Gayego has always had the pedigree for dirt but he'd never had a chance to show it off, until now that is. Gayego scored at odds of just over 2-to-1 in his debut on dirt and he did it in impressive fashion, stalking and overtaking pacesetter Tres Barachos (who held third). Gayego stopped the clock in a respectable 1:49.63 for the 9 furlongs of the Arkansas Derby (Curlin did it in 1:50 flat last year). I'm not crazy about the longshot Tres Barachos holding on for third (speed bias?) but all in all I respect Gayego's performance. He makes his first appearance in the Derby Top 5 and he's riding a bullet. Blackberry Road is banished forever (the bubble has burst) and Big Truck needs to pull over at the next rest stop so he's gone too. I'm replacing Big Truck with Denis Of Cork. Denis Of Cork gets a mulligan (in the Illinois Derby) in part due to the rail bias that day. And he needs a little help to make the top 20 in graded stakes earnings. Let's hope he gets in because he can run a nice Kentucky Derby if he gets the chance. A side note: Hey Byrn won the 1 3/16 mile G3 Holy Bull (at Gulfstream) and he'll try to parlay the $90,000 in winnings into a trip to Louisville for the Derby in three weeks, but he'll need several defections to make the cut.

April 6 Update: Denis Of Cork failed to hit the board in a stunner in the G2 Illinois Derby. Recapturetheglory took advantage of a golden rail to win at odds of nearly 16-to-1, while Denis Of Cork checked in fifth (beaten 8 1/2 lengths). Denis Of Cork drops out of the Derby Top 5 although we still like him. In the G1 Santa Anita Derby, Colonel John made a statement with a huge rally, erasing an eight-length deficit in the final half-mile to defeat Bob Black Jack by a half-length. Colonel John makes our Derby Top 5 for the first time. El Gato Malo was poised to make the Derby Top 5, but he managed only a fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Colonel John. El Gato Malo may have an excuse with an extremely wide trip. Our favorite "on the bubble" contender Blackberry Road surfaces again next week in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Blackberry Road is in desperate need of graded stakes earnings if he wants to make the Kentucky Derby cut. And everybody's favorite closer Pyro gets his final Kentucky Derby tune-up next Saturday in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland. Don't get too excited if he doesn't have a great race, because Polytrack results are not reliable for forecasting performance on conventional dirt. As for the G1 Wood Memorial winner Tale Of Ekati, he stepped up his game but his winning time was definitely on the slow side. I've read reports that winning times at Aqueduct were on the slow side for the Wood card, but I don't buy it. A half-hour prior to the running of the Wood, Temporary Saint won the G3 Excelsior (also run at 1 1/8 miles) more than a full second faster than Tale Of Ekati's winning time in the Wood. And were we really surprised when War Pass faltered in the lane (again)? No, we weren't. The jury is still out on Tale Of Ekati.

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March 30 Update: Big Brown laid down the gauntlet in the Florida Derby with a dominating performance. No reason to adjust my Derby Top 5 at all, unless I add an exclamation point after Big Brown's name. Check back next week after the Illinois Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Wood Memorial are in the record books.

March 23 Update: Here is my updated "Top 5 Derby Watch" list for 2008. I made my original selections on February 27, 2008. On March 15, War Pass finished last in the Tampa Bay Derby, so I replaced him with Denis Of Cork, winner of the Southwest Stakes. Also I replaced Tale Of Ekati with Sierra Sunset after Tale Of Ekati looked terrible in the Louisiana Derby, and Sierra Sunset won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Almost as fast as Sierra Sunset made the list, he was dropped due to injury. On March 23, I replaced Sierra Sunset with the lightly raced phenom Big Brown. Big Brown cruised through first-level allowance conditions, and he gets his first real test in the G1 Florida Derby on March 29. All my other original selections are still in the hunt, although Blackberry Road is on the bubble. Check back in one week for the latest update.

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