Year of Breeders Cup Juvenile	Name of Horse	Breeders Cup Juvenile Finish	Kentucky Derby Finish The Next Year
1984	Chief's Crown	Win	Show
1984	Spend A Buck	Show	Win
1986	Alysheba	Show	Win
1988	Easy Goer	Place	Place
1993	Blumin Affair	Place	Show
1994	Timber Country	Win	Show
1994	Tejano Run	Show	Place
1998	Cat Thief	Show	Show
2004	Afleet Alex	Place	Show
2006	Street Sense	Win	Win

Suddenly a pattern begins to emerge.  Ten "in the money" finishers in the Juvenile were also "in the money" finishers in the following year's Kentucky Derby.  It took Street Sense to break the jinx, but this list should give hope to future Breeders Cup Juvenile winners.  Of course it makes sense that the best of the two year-old crop will compete well in the three year-old campaign.

Is there a pattern beneath the surface that provides further clues?  Perhaps certain race courses favor Kentucky Derby hopefuls.  Let's take an in depth look.

Race Course	Hosted Breeders Cup	Derby Winners Produced	Derby In the Money Finishers Produced
Arlington Park	1	0	0
Aqueduct	1	0	0
Belmont Park	4	0	1
Churchill Downs	6	1	5
Gulfstream Park	3	1	2
Hollywood Park	3	1	3
Lone Star Park	1	0	1
Monmouth Park	1	?	?
Santa Anita Park	3	1	3
Woodbine	1	0	0

Churchill Downs has hosted six Breeders Cups (including 2006), more than any other track, and it has produced the only Kentucky Derby winner (Street Sense). Churchill Downs has produced a total of five in the money finishers.  This stands to reason because Churchill Downs is the host for the Kentucky Derby, and horses with an affinity to the track stand to do very well. Belmont Park, on the other hand, has hosted four Breeders Cups and has produced no Derby winners and only one in the money finisher.  The two California tracks, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita Park, have hosted a combined six Breeders Cups and produced two Derby winners and six in the money finishers.  Now that synthetic surfaces [like Polytrack, Cushion Track, and Tapeta Track] are installed in California, the rules of the game are forever changed.  The chance that a colt will win the Juvenile on a synthetic track and then win the Kentucky Derby on conventional dirt is almost nil.  Is that progress?  I don't think so, and not many others in the game think so, either. 

Lone Star Park, Woodbine (Canada), Aqueduct, Arlington Park and Gulfstream Park have hosted a combined seven Breeders Cups, producing one Kentucky Derby winner and three in the money finishers.  The jury is still out this year for Monmouth Park.  Among the colts that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Monmouth last year, second place finisher Pyro looks easily the best Derby prospect right now.  War Pass, who won the Juvenile, is fading fast from the picture, while fourth place finisher Tale Of Ekati is right back in the running with a victory over War Pass in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.  Last year's Juvenile third place finisher Kodiak Kowboy remains on the fringe.

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Woodbine hosted the 1996 Breeders Cup and not one of the Juvenile participants made the trip to Kentucky for the Derby.  Two participants (Brother Derek and Private Vow) in the 2005 Breeders Cup, held at Belmont Park, made the trip to Kentucky in 2006.  However, none of the top three 2005 Juvenile finishers, Stevie Wonderboy, Henny Hughes, or First Samurai, ran in the 2006 Derby.  Street Sense put a stop to that trend by starting in, and winning, the 2007 Kentucky Derby.  He was accompanied to Louisville by five other Juvenile starters (Great Hunter, Stormello, Circular Quay, Teuflesberg, and Scat Daddy) but none of the others hit the board.  Circular Quay finished 6th, Great Hunter 13th, Teuflesberg 17th, Scat Daddy 18th, and Stormello 19th.  The five others besides Street Sense averaged a 14th place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and this has been the rule rather than the exception.  And remember, Circular Quay and Great Hunter finished a very respectable second and third, respectively, in the 2006 Juvenile.  This illustrates how amazing Street Sense's "daily double" of the Juvenile and the Derby really is.  The top three finishers in the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile were War Pass, Pyro, and Kodiak Kowboy.  Tale Of Ekati finished fourth.

The only colt that dramatically improved his performance from the Juvenile to the Derby was Sea Hero, who languished in seventh place for the Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992, and then went on to take the 1993 Kentucky Derby, skimming the rail.  Usually it is the other way around.  There have been many Juvenile winners whose Derby performances can best be described as train wrecks.  In the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Capote finished 16th.  In the 1992 Derby, Juvenile winner Arazi finished eighth.  In the 1998 Derby, Favorite Trick had a similar fate, finishing eighth.  The next year, 1999, Answer Lively finished tenth in the Derby, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous year.  The carnage continued in the 2000 Derby, with Juvenile winner Anees running 13th.  More recently, in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Wilko finished an uninspiring sixth.  2005 Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy did not run in the 2006 Derby due to injury.  And then there was Street Sense, who broke the mold and won both the Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby.

The only filly to win the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era is Winning Colors in 1988, and as a filly Winning Colors did not race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and also did not race in the 1987 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

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Statistics On Horses That Started In Both A Breeders Cup Juvenile And A Kentucky Derby

There are now 61 colts which started in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby.  Thirty-three of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 28 finished out of the money in the Juvenile.  Of the 61 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was between eighth and ninth.  Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so a fifth place Juvenile finish is probably not so different than an eighth or ninth place Derby finish.  Of the 33 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance.  This is true even for the 2007 Derby.  Despite the victory by Street Sense, Circular Quay ran sixth and Great Hunter ran 13th in the Derby.  The average Derby finish of these three colts, who finished one-two-three in the 2006 Juvenile, is a trifle better than seventh ((1+6+13)/3=6.7).  On the surface, this seems to be a surprising result.  Why did the horses that hit the board in the Juvenile finish seventh, on average, in the Kentucky Derby?

Is there a lesson here?  I believe there is, and it centers around the physical development of the modern thoroughbred.  From the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing.  A colt changes during this period from a "gangly teenager" to a "mature adult."  In the midst of these changes, the overall athletic ability of a horse can improve dramatically.  With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast and powerful three year-olds.  And this season of change that takes place between Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby permanently alters the landscape for Kentucky Derby contenders.  This appears to have happened to Stormello, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter, and Teuflesberg.  Circular Quay, though, may be keeping pace with his respectable sixth place Derby finish.  Colts like Curlin and Hard Spun are late developers and these colts will be the ones to become great handicap horses.  And then there is Street Sense.  He is the exception, not the rule. 

From my observations, the colt that most personifies physical improvement from his juvenile to his 3-year-old campaign is Pyro.  He was a gangly looking teenager last year, and he is a muscle bound athlete in 2008.  Look out for Pyro in the Kentucky Derby.  Denis Of Cork, the Southwest Stakes winner, is also quite a physical specimen, and he looked great winning the Southwest Stakes.  However Denis Of Cork took a big step backwards in the G2 Illinois Derby, inexplicably finishing out of the money.   

Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues?

The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore.  As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore.  In the twenty-four Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows.  His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor.  To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas.  Who has the three?  Bob Baffert and Nick Zito.  Several trainers own two in the money finishes, including Steve Asmussen who got his two in the 2007 Juvenile (Pyro and Kodiak Kowboy).

Two questions rise to mind.  How did Lukas do it?  And does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success?  The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another.  Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart.  Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record for trainers in 2007, incredibly breaking his own record established only one year earlier.  Kiaran McLaughlin has achieved greatness in his own right, having trained 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2006 Breeders Cup Classic winner Invasor for Sheik Hamdan's Shadwell Stable.  And Steve Asmussen, trainer of Horse of the Year Culrin in 2007, appears to be following Pletcher's blueprint and now rivals Pletcher for top American trainer. 

What about the second question, did D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds?  The answer is yes, and the answer is no.  The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era.  But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas was winning the Kentucky Derby with were not the same horses Lukas was winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with.  The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996).  Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).  It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses.

I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas.  No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas.  It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002.  Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races.

The playing field has become level in recent years.  With Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, there have been nine different winning trainers in the last nine Derbies.  Nafzger, though, also trained the 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner Unbridled.  In the last thirteen runnings of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, there have been no less than thirteen different winning trainers.  Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, is in that number as well, although he is now nearing the end of his career.  Todd Pletcher sent five horses postward in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, his best finish a sixth by Circular Quay.  Nick Zito, trainer of War Pass, has a pair of Derby winners [Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994].

How Did Street Sense Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby?

The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made.  Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections.  Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce.  Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge.  This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run.  His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all.  Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life.  This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period.  Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns.

The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates.  A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns.  The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges.  Even when the campaign of a Derby hopeful is in full bloom, a sudden injury can derail Derby plans for even a top prospect.  Such was the case for the connections of Stevie Wonderboy in 2006.

Somehow Street Sense overcame these obstacles.  We know that Carl Nafzger handled the talented Street Sense, a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry.  In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby.  Carl Nafzger used the Blue Grass Stakes (on the Keeneland Polytrack) as the final Kentucky Derby prep for Street Sense, and this could have helped keep the colt sound.  Remember, Hard Spun used a similar strategy in leading up to his Derby second place finish.  Hard Spun's final prep was the Lane's End, also run on the forgiving Polytrack surface.  Street Sense had only two preps in 2007 (the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes) instead of the traditional three preps.  And Nafzger, Calvin Borel, and Street Sense did the rest.

In February of 2007, I listed my top ten Derby hopefuls, knowing the list was going to be inaccurate.  But it held up pretty well.

2007 DERBY CONTENDER	TRAINER
Nobiz Like Shobiz	Barclay Tagg
Street Sense	Carl Nafzger
Circular Quay	Todd Pletcher
Scat Daddy	Todd Pletcher
Great Hunter	Doug O'Neil
E Z Warrior	Bob Baffert
C P West	Nick Zito
Teuflesberg	Jamie Sanders
U D Ghetto	Anthony Reinstedlar
Hard Spun	Larry Jones