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2008 Articles
May 2, 2008     "Finding Hidden Meaning In Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings List"
April 26, 2008     "Top 10 Reasons The Kentucky Derby Is The Hardest Race In The World To Handicap"
April 19, 2008     "The Final Kentucky Derby Prep: The Lexington Stakes"
April 12, 2008     "Hot Off The Press: The Blue Grass Stakes"
April 12, 2008     "The Arkansas Derby: Examining The Field Top To Bottom"
April 6, 2008    "Is It Finally Time To Stick A Fork In War Pass?"
April 4, 2008     "The Santa Anita Derby: First Time In History On Cushion Track"
April 4, 2008     "The Illinois Derby: Examining The Field Top To Bottom"
April 1, 2008     "In-Depth Reviews Of The Best American & European Horses"
March 29, 2008     "The Florida Derby: All You Need To Know"
March 22, 2008     "The Lane's End Stakes: Full Analysis & Selections"
March 15, 2008     "The Rebel Stakes: Full Analysis & Wager Recommendation"
March 7, 2008     "The Real Scoop On The Louisiana Derby"
February 27, 2008     "The Derby Jinx Is Dead, So Now What Happens?"
February 8, 2008     "What The Heck Happened To Hystericalady? "
2007 Articles Archives
December 17, 2007     "The Best Horses From A To Z"
October 31, 2007     "How Our Selections Fared In The Breeders Cup"
October 27, 2007     "Selections For 2007 The Breeders Cup"
October 13, 2007     "The Breeders Cup 2007 Series: Installment 3 [Handicapping The Breeders Cup World Championships]"
September 30, 2007     "The Breeders Cup 2007 Challenge Winners"
September 8, 2007     "The Breeders Cup 2007 Series: Installment 2 [The Nuts And Bolts Of Financing The Breeders Cup]"
July 7, 2007     "The Breeders Cup 2007 Series: Installment 1 [The Brave New World Of Breeders Cup]"
June 9, 2007     "Handicapping Insights: The Belmont 2007"
June 9, 2007     "The Belmont 2007 Computer Analysis"
June 2, 2007     "The Belmont 2007 Watch"
May 26, 2007     "The Maktoums Of Dubai"
May 19, 2007     "Handicapping Insights: The Preakness 2007"
May 19, 2007     "The Preakness 2007 Computer Analysis"
May 11, 2007     "The Preakness 2007 Watch"
May 7, 2007     "The Wicked Jinx Is Dead"
May 6, 2007     "The Kentucky Derby 2007 Computer Analysis"
April 22, 2007     "The Impact Of Slots On U.S. Racing"
April 22, 2007     "The Top Trainers, Riders, And Tracks In America"
March 31, 2007     "The Kentucky Derby Watch 2007"
2006 Articles Archives
November 4, 2006     "The Breeders Cup Classic Report"
November 4, 2006     "The Breeders Cup Sprint Report"
November 4, 2006     "The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Report"
October 17, 2006     "The Blossoming Of Breeders Cup"
October 10, 2006     "Net Pool Pricing Is Here To Stay"
June 10, 2006     "The 138th Belmont Stakes Computer Analysis"
May 10, 2006     "The Preakness Watch 2006"
April 28, 2006     "The Kentucky Derby Watch 2006"
March 25, 2006     "How Successful Juveniles Do In the Kentucky Derby"
2005 Articles Archives
November 1, 2005     "The 2005 Breeders Cup Computer Analysis"
October 25, 2005     "A Look At The Pre-Entries For The Bessemer Trust Breeders Cup 2005 Juvenile"
October 25, 2005     "A Look At The Pre-Entries For The Alberto VO5 Breeders Cup 2005 Juvenile Fillies"
October 25, 2005     "A Look At The Pre-Entries For The NetJets Breeders Cup 2005 Mile"
October 25, 2005     "An Early Look At The 2005 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff"
October 24, 2005     "An Early Look At The 2005 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf"
October 22, 2005     "An Early Look At The 2005 John Deere Breeders Cup Turf"
October 18, 2005     "An Early Look At The 2005 Powered By Dodge Breeders Cup Classic"
September 28, 2005     "An Early Look At The 2005 TVG Breeders Cup Sprint"
September 21, 2005     "The Uglier Side Of The Sport Of Horse Racing"
August 8, 2005     "The Truth About Morning Line Odds"
July 16, 2005     "The Key Race As Handicapping Tool"
July 2, 2005      "Breeders Cup For Dummies"
June 11, 2005 "The Belmont Wrap-Up"
June 8, 2005     "The 2005 Belmont Computer Analysis"
June 5, 2005       "Time To Dissect The Belmont Field"
June 5, 2005       "The Belmont Field Looks About Set"
May 28, 2005     "Digesting The Preakness"

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"The Truth Behind Morning Line Odds"

by Jim Lambert

What Are Morning Line Odds?

Morning Line Odds are the odds the track oddsmaker assigns to each horse that best represent the chance the horse has to win the race.

There is something the race track is not telling you, though. Factored into the Morning Line Odds is the track takeout, or vigorish, that is hoisted onto the back of the bettor. This is similar to the 10% taken out of the winnings on a bet on a football game. The track typically takes out anywhere from 14% to 20% on a win, place, or show bet. Takeouts for "exotic" wagers, such as the exacta, quinella, trifecta, superfecta (it doesn't matter if it is a 10-cent superfecta), daily double, pick three, pick four and pick six, are generally significantly higher.

Imagine a race with eight horses of equal caliber running where there is no takeout. Another way of looking at it is that all the money the bettors wager will be returned to the bettors who hold the winning tickets. No money will be kept by the race track (clearly this is a fantasy I am asking you to imagine).

Here is what the Morning Line Odds will look like.

Program Number

Morning Line Odds

Chance To Win (%)

1

7-1

12.5

2

7-1

12.5

3

7-1

12.5

4

7-1

12.5

5

7-1

12.5

6

7-1

12.5

7

7-1

12.5

8

7-1

12.5

100.0

Notice four things:

(1) Everybody knows if you bet $1 to win on a 7-1 shot, you get $8 back if it is a winner.

(2) The odds are the same for all horses because we stipulated the horses are of equal caliber.

(3) The Chance To Win is the probability a horse has to Win the race. There are eight horses, each with a one-in-eight chance to win. One-in-eight is equal to .125 , which is the same as 12.5%.

(4) The Chance To Win for all the horses adds up to exactly 100%, which is just what you would expect.

Well, you know and I know the track doesn't put on races for free. So let's examine a real world race this time.

There is a fun exercise you can do with your favorite track's Morning Line odds. Pick any race, such as the following actual race picked at random from a racing program.

Program Number

Morning Line Odds

Chance To Win (%)

1

8-5

38.46

2

8-1

11.11

3

9-2

18.18

4

3-1

25.00

5

6-1

14.29

6

8-1

11.11

7

20-1

04.76

122.91

There is a way to compute the Chance To Win, as a percentage, straight from the Morning Line Odds.

Chance To Win = (1 / (Morning Line Odds + 1)) X 100

In English, this means to add one to the Morning Line Odds, then divide that number into one (you will get a fractional number), and then multiply that number by 100. The answer is the chance the horse will win out of 100.

For example, for Program Number #6 above, the formula is

Chance To Win = (1 / (8 + 1)) X 100 = (1/9) X 100 = 11.11%

Notice the sum of all of the Chances To Win is 122.91%, well over 100% . A little alarm should be going off in your brain that this cannot be right.

Theoretically, the Chance To Win cannot exceed 100%. So what's going on? The track is bleeding vigorish from the parimutuel pool, that's what is going on. The Morning Line Odds are accounting for the track mutuel takeout, and this inflates the Chance To Win to a higher number than it actually should be.

I didn't mean to confuse you. Think of it this way. The oddsmaker's job is to show the bettor what the toteboard should look like, based on his expert analysis, and also based on the track takeout. So the odds are going to be smaller than they should be because the track is taking its cut from the bettors. And the smaller odds, when plugged into the formula I showed you above, yield a higher, or inflated, Chance To Win.

How do we know what the actual Chance To Win really is? We can go in the back door to do this.

In our example, the actual track takeout for mutuel bets happens to be 17% (Remember, I am using an actual race). So we will simply undo what the oddsmaker did to alter the odds. We will multiply the Chance To Win for each horse by the ratio 100/117 , which will reverse the effect of the track takeout.

Remember, this has the effect of reversing the 17% mutuel takeout, and reflecting the actual Chance To Win for each horse.

Let's take a look at the results.

Program Number

Morning Line Odds

Actual Chance To Win (%)

1

8-5

32.87

2

8-1

09.50

3

9-2

15.54

4

3-1

21.37

5

6-1

12.21

6

8-1

09.50

7

20-1

04.07

105.06

Notice that the sum of all the Chances To Win is closer to 100% than it was before. It should be exactly 100%, but it is off due to estimation error by the track oddsmaker. He is probably using some horse race odds computer program to assign the odds and he has no idea that he is making a mistake.

If you are really clever, you can use the new Chance To Win for each horse and compute the Morning Line Odds without the effect of the track vigorish.

The tote board, in effect, plays a trick on the bettors by reflecting odds that represent an inflated chance to win for each horse. This is the world of parimutuel