The Kentucky Derby has fast become one of the most difficult races in the world to handicap. The "best known" handicappers have rarely been able to pick the winner, and have downright embarrassed themselves in some years. Most recently, in the 2006 Derby, Andy Beyer picked A. P. Warrior (finished 18th of 20). The highly regarded Dan Illman of the Daily Racing Form staff picked Sweetnorthernsaint (finished 7th of 20). The often published Steven Crist also picked Sweetnorthernsaint. Your author and "house handicapper" for www.Horse-Race-Handicapping.com, Jim Lambert, picked Steppenwolfer (finished 3rd of 20).

Why is this one race so darn difficult to predict? Tell you what, I'll give you the top ten list, and then we'll get down to the business of handicapping the 2007 Kentucky Derby, because I know that's what you're really interested in.

Top 10 Reasons Kentucky Derby Is Now The Hardest Race In The World To Handicap

1. Field size has routinely swollen to the max of twenty, and that's too many horses to squeeze into two turns and not expect major traffic congestion.

2. These 3-year-olds are still youngsters, and although we feel we know them by now, they don't have a lot of lifetime starts.

3. None of the Derby preps are contested at the Derby 1 1/4 mile distance.

4. The Derby preps are held from coast-to-coast, so a lot of these colts have never eyed each other on the race course.

5. Only a handful of the contenders normally have a race over the Churchill Downs course, the perennial host track for the Derby.

6. Back to the unruly field size, if a jockey makes a minor mistake, he can lose the race in a blink.

7. Everybody (including the best of the race beat handicappers) pays far too much attention to the media circus, losing track of well grounded handicapping methodology.

8. Way too much attention is devoted to the Dosage Index of the contenders. The Belmont Stakes is the only jewel of the Triple Crown where the Dosage Index really comes into play.

9. Race handicappers have to make their selections before the weather reports are fully accurate, so a sloppy track can change everything.

10. There are twenty choices, for God's sakes!

O.K., that's enough excuses why nobody picks the winner. Let's get down to business.


Handicapping The 2007 Kentucky Derby

The 133rd Kentucky Derby boasts about 6 to 7 equally gifted top contenders. They can all rate, they can all make a big move, and most don't need to come from the back. Let's look at the top contenders, not in any particular order.

Scat Daddy

With 5 wins in 8 overall starts, this fellow has done everything Todd Pletcher has asked of him. Scat Daddy took the two big Florida preps (Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby) this year. Last year Barbaro romped home a winner in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Florida Derby. Scat
Daddy is a thorough professional, and he has a professional turn of foot when the real running starts in the stretch. Am I sounding repetitive? If I thought he was hands down the best, I would use a word like "spectacular" instead of "professional." I guess what I'm saying is that Scat Daddy is going to be an impact on everybody's exotics tickets, but I don't see him winning. Scat Daddy wins too many close races, and he was beaten too easily in the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile. But we won't leave him out.

Circular Quay

Somewhere along the way, Circular Quay (also trained by Todd Pletcher) became more of a championship threat than his stable mate Scat Daddy. They have traded punches twice, with Circular Quay defeating Scat Daddy both times, most notably in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where 'Quay' fought the rail bias at Churchill to finish a strong second (10 lengths back of Street
Sense) and Scat Daddy ran 4th, 5 lengths back of Circular Quay. And the way 'Quay' ate up ground in the Louisiana Derby on the speed favoring Fair Grounds race course makes me believe that Pletcher feels 'Quay' is his best shot at a Derby victory in 2007. Pletcher's decision to rest 'Quay' for the 8 weeks (actually 57 days) leading up to the Derby only validates that hunch of mine, and the brief freshening is not going to impede Circular Quay's chances at all. His style is to lay back and make one big ferocious run, and Pletcher knows that he will be able to do that just fine with an 8 week rest. The only drawback on Circular Quay, and we're fishing here, is that he hasn't registered a superior speed figure yet. Does that lower him to the "professional" category with his stable mate Scat Daddy? Maybe, maybe not. But at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, I'd rather have 'Quay' headlining my ticket instead of Scat Daddy when push comes to shove. 'Quay' has 4 wins in 7 starts (in one of his losses he had to dodge a fallen jockey), very nice but not perfect by any stretch, but he did defeat a speed bias in the Louisiana Derby (at the Fair Grounds) and he was "wrapped up" at the end, and he is rested, and I think this is Pletcher's best shot at the Derby, and maybe the horse of the moment.

Curlin

Speaking of perfect, Curlin has been just that. With a maiden allowance romp at Gulfstream (by 12 3/4 lengths), and back-to-back impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby (both at Oaklawn Park), Curlin may just be the horse of the moment. Smarty Jones traveled the road of the Rebel and Arkansas Derby on his way to wins in Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2004,
but there is a major difference between the careers of Smarty Jones and Curlin. Like most Kentucky Derby winners, Smarty Jones raced as a 2-year-old, and in fact had a perfect 8-for-8 lifetime record leading up to the 2004 Derby. Curlin did not race as a 2-year-old. Horses that that don't race as 2-year-olds simply don't win the Derby. Apollo was the last to do it, in 1882. You remember, don't you? Ha! And Curlin has only 3 lifetime starts. The last horse to win the Derby with only 3 starts was the filly Regret in 1915. The 3 race deal doesn't mean much these days, because the trend for Derby winners is to be lightly raced as a whole. And as for the lack of any races as a 2-year-old, I feel that means a little, but it doesn't mean a lot. I know that's a wishy-washy way to put it. Curlin may be a superstar, and he may not be. Because he has only 3 races, and his speed figures are at the top (but not really better than the other top contenders), we don't know if he can separate himself from the others in the Kentucky Derby. But we do know a few things. Curlin handled Oaklawn Park easily, a very fair and unbiased course. Of the last three Arkansas Derby winners (Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones), two (Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones) won multiple Triple Crown races. Also, Curlin's splits and his closing times, and his breeding, all point to "no bounces here." So
Curlin is going to be there at the finish unless his immaturity costs him. If there is a horse who gets left at the gate, or loses ground due to contact with another horse, Curlin is a genuine candidate to be that horse. But if he avoids those problems, look out! This is why the Derby is such a tough race to handicap, because of colts like Curlin, gifted but green.

Hard Spun

Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths but then disappointed in the Southwest as the 1-to-2 favorite. Breaking from the outside post in the Southwest, Hard Spun raced wide the entire going and ended up fourth beaten three lengths by the talented Teuflesberg. Considering the level of competition in the Southwest, and the brilliant effort by Teuflesberg, Hard Spun remained firmly in the Kentucky Derby picture. And he remains front and center after his powerful performance in the Lane's End. Hard Spun, a Pennsylvania-bred like Smarty Jones, has been handled beautifully by Larry Jones. The Lane's End doesn't mean a lot in the sense that Polytrack performance does not translate into dirt performance. What it does mean is that Hard Spun got to race on a forgiving surface (as did Street Sense and Great Hunter in their final Derby prep), and by winning the race easily he essentially got a brisk workout. Perfect! How good is Hard Spun? He has 5 wins in 6 starts, all on dirt except for the Lane's End (at Turway Park). His speed figures are in the same neighborhood of the other top contenders. And he is being handled in an expert fashion. Hard
Spun could surprise at a nice price. Winning may be difficult for him, but hitting the board is a real possibility, and I'm leaning that way.

Nobiz Like Shobiz

Some of the racing press is starting to jump off the 'Shobiz' band wagon, and they started after his 3rd place finish (behind Scat Daddy and Stormello) in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. The complaint, and common refrain, is that 'Shobiz' has shown us his very best stuff and it's not good enough. Heading in to the Wood, 'Shobiz' was 3-for-5 lifetime (including a victory over Scat Daddy in the Holy Bull). Then came the Wood Memorial. In an eye-opening effort Nobiz Like Shobiz (B. Tagg trains and C. Velasquez rides) battled for inside position, contributed to scintillating early fractions, put away challenger Any Given Saturday, and fought off the fast closing Sightseeing for the win. The Wood victory was impressive, and it gives 'Shobiz' 4 wins in 6 starts overall. His best speed figures are about as good as anyone's, and most importantly, his trainer is Barclay Tagg. Do not underestimate this man. He won the 2003 Derby with Funny Cide. 'Shobiz' is a tough one to leave out, and I feel we need him on our ticket.

Street Sense

Street Sense is one of the toughest horses in the Derby field for me to figure out. He has done everything that has been asked of him by handler Carl Nafzger. He won over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby. He loss by a nose to the Polytrack specialist Dominican in the Blue Grass. He won last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile. So why am I not totally comfortable with Street Sense?

There are a few concrete reasons.

1. Performing well on Polytrack does matter because the Derby, as we all know, is still run on dirt.
2. Street Sense has been glad handled because of the Derby Jinx (on Breeders Cup Juvenile winners), and that leaves him not as well prepared as his competition.
3. He is not dominating races leading up to the Derby, and the Derby is now!

And perhaps the biggest reason . . .

4. The 2006 Breeders Cup rail bias aided his runaway victory in the Juvenile, which inflated his stock in my view.

He absolutely cannot be overlooked, but he has some serious questions needing to be answered.

Great Hunter

How about this for a handicapping angle:  Dirt ---> to Polytrack ---> to Derby. That's what Hard Spun and Street Sense are doing, and that's what Great Hunter is doing too. Great Hunter is my "sleeping giant" in the Derby field. Many experienced race writers have discounted Great Hunter's chances in the Derby based in part on his 5th place finish in the Blue Grass (at Keeneland). Attention, race writers! The Blue Grass is now run on Polytrack. Attention, race writers! Great Hunter despite running 5th, finished only 1 3/4 lengths behind the winner Dominican. Great hunter, last time on dirt, won the Robert B. Lewis easily, granted against a weak group. In 7 overall starts on dirt Great Hunter has 2 wins, 4 seconds, and 1 third. The 3rd was an important effort against the Breeders Cup rail bias to finish only 2 lengths back of Circular Quay in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. And breeding may hold the key for Great Hunter. Great Hunter is sired by Aptitude, a son of A P Indy. The first year at stud for Aptitude was 2002 and Steppenwolfer, last year's Derby 3rd place finisher, is a chief earner
to-date along with Great Hunter. A grandson of A P Indy, Great Hunter is bred on the sire line for the classics. Zenith, the dam of Great Hunter, injects turf aptitude into his pedigree and is probably one the reasons Great Hunter runs so well on polytrack as well as dirt. Great Hunter is one of the more intriguing Derby candidates for 2007. We may get a nice price, and Great Hunter may just win the Derby for Doug O'Neil.
__________________________________________

Now that we've looked at the top contenders, how about some value alternatives?

Tiago

I didn't list Tiago among the top contenders, but it was a close call. Of the two "one run" threats in the Derby, Circular Quay has the best resume. But Tiago is not far behind, and he could surprise. That's exactly what he did in the Santa Anita Derby, at odds of 29-to-1. My observations just after the Santa Anita Derby: The second longest price on the board, Tiago ($60.60), stormed home on the rail to overtake runner-up King of the Roxy in a thrilling upset in the 1 1/8 mile grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. At the midpoint of the race, Black Seventeen, Liquidity, Sam P., and King of the Roxy raced within 1 1/2 lengths of each other, while Tiago (ridden by Mike Smith) languished some 12 lengths back of the front runners. When the real running began in upper stretch, King of the Roxy, Liquidity, and Sam P. all threatened for the lead, while Tiago angled toward the rail, all the time gaining momentum. As the stretch run ensued, King of the Roxy broke away from Liquidity and Sam P. but looked tired and his stride began to shorten noticeably. That was the cue for Tiago to rush past 'Roxy' for a 1/2 length
victory at odds of 29-to-1. John Shirreffs trains Tiago, as he did Tiago's half-brother Giacomo (winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby). The winning time for the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby was 1:49.51. Just how impressive was Tiago's victory? I always look at the last three furlongs, the crunch time of any route of ground. Tiago was 6 lengths (and change) back of the leader Black Seventeen at the 6 furlong marker, and the 6 furlong fraction was 1:11 and 2/5. Tiago clocked in at 1:49 and 2/5 for the 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. That puts him at about 36 and 4/5 for the last three furlongs (about 12 and 1/5 per furlong). That's a good effort at Santa Anita, maybe not a great effort, but certainly a very good effort. That sums up the way I feel about Tiago, very good but not great.

Sam P.

With only 2 wins in 8 lifetime starts, Sam P. won't get top billing in the Pletcher stable of Derby hopefuls, but Sam P. finished 2nd to Great Hunter in the Robert B. Lewis, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths. That race signaled a major improvement in the speed figure department for Sam P., and he came back with an average performance in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 3rd to upset winner Tiago. Should Sam P. rebound with a performance more in line with his Robert B. Lewis effort, he could conceivably hit the board.

Storm In May

Somebody had to finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby, and Storm In May was up to the challenge. From my pre-race notes for the Arkansas Derby: Curlin is capable of early pace, but will probably let Deadly Dealer (Todd Pletcher), Flying First Class (D Wayne Lukas), and Storm In May (William Kaplan) set the early fractions. Deadly Dealer manhandled a group of first level allowance foes in early March, but gets his first real test today. Curlin will be able to stalk the pace setters and should be very tough in the stretch, but let's see just how good he really is. As it played out, Storm In May stayed near the back of the pack early, and that allowed him to close up the rail late for the place. From my post-race notes: As for the others, Storm In May ran 2nd, and Deadly Dealer held on for 3rd, but they were so far back as to be considered personae not gratae. Storm In May has a long way to go to catch up to Curlin, but he is running well.
__________________________________________

Now that we've looked at the top contenders and value alternatives, let's look at some possible surprises.

Teuflesberg

His high point came in the one mile Southwest Stakes (at Oaklawn) where he wired a strong field that included Hard Spun. That alone makes him a pace threat, but he has only 4 wins in 14 starts, and one of the wins was on Polytrack. Teuflesberg ran 3rd in the Rebel Stakes, and here's my
observations from that race. It was a different story today as Teuflesberg missed the break and had no answer for Curlin. Of course, nobody had an answer for Curlin, and Teuflesberg still managed a 3rd place finish, about 8 lengths back of the runaway winner. The Jamie Sanders charge now has 14
starts to his credit (with 4 wins) and we may have seen all the cards he's been holding. We'll keep tabs on him, though.

Any Given Saturday

Lightly raced, with 3 wins in 5 starts, Any Given Saturday helped provide a thrilling stretch duel with Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby, eventually losing the nod. But just weeks later in the Wood Memorial, reality set in as Nobiz Like Shobiz stepped into the spotlight and 'Given Saturday'
languished in third place. Any Given Saturday may surprise me, but I think Pletcher has more promising prospects just down the shed row.

Sedgefield

Sedgefield got noticed in the Lane's End with a 2nd place finish to Hard Spun. Here are my observations just after the race. Sedgefield is twice stakes placed on the grass. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt, although as a grandson of Mr. Prospector he is bred to handle it. Sedgefield has not been mentioned as a Derby candidate but he is Triple Crown nominated. His connections (owner Silverton Hill LLC and trainer Darrin Miller) now have two stakes placings in graded affairs (including a 2nd in the Tropical Park Derby, a $100,000 grade 3 turf event at Calder) to consider. But it is hard to recommend a horse to win the Derby that has never raced on dirt. Maybe we'll use him in the superfecta!

Cowtown Cat

Todd Pletcher's decision to enter Cowtown Cat in the Illinois Derby instead of one of the stronger Derby preps was a signal to me that Pletcher thought 'Cat' needed some seasoning. It's a bit late for that, but to his credit Cowtown Cat won the race. 'Cat' also won the Gotham at Aqueduct. My observations just after Cowtown Cat's win in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct: Cowtown Cat shadowed the leaders only a length back amongst sluggish fractions (1:13 and 2/5 for six panels). Then the running heated up several degrees for the final 2 1/2 furlongs, which Cowtown Cat negotiated in 31.15 seconds (a little more than 12 and 2/5 per furlong to close out the race).
The Aqueduct inner dirt course is altogether a different animal than the Churchill Downs surface that plays host to the Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, the connections of Cowtown Cat will be probably be eyeing the Derby. 'Cat' may have a problem in his pedigree, which is heavily slanted towards speed.
To me, he would be a big surprise.

Liquidity

Liquidity was very disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, failing to hit the board after experiencing a trouble free trip. Long shot Tiago ran by Liquidity as if Liquidity were standing still, and Liquidity (despite his obvious speed) has won only one race, his maiden. Wait a minute, I think I can hear an objection: "Giacomo had just a maiden win leading up the 2005 Derby, and look what happened." True, but Giacomo was gaining ground late in the 2005 Santa Anita Derby (despite running 4th), and Liquidity has never shown an ability to do that. Looks like another superfecta filler.

Zanjero

Steve Asmussen trains Curlin, but he also handles (and likes) Zanjero. But Zanjero always plays the bridesmaid, except for a maiden win and a first level allowance win. Zanjero managed a third in the Blue Grass (on Polytrack). He finished 3rd in the Risen Star (at the Fair Grounds), but that race was marred by a traffic incident that claimed favorite Circular Quay. As a 2-year-old Zanjero was a distant runner-up to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Remsen (at Aqueduct). Bottom line, he sure tries, his speed figures come up short.
__________________________________________

How about the rest of the field?

Dominican

Dominican is getting a lot of due based on his Blue Grass win (on Polytrack). But he has never won on dirt, and that's going to be a problem for him in the Kentucky Derby. A look at my notes on the Blue Grass: Dominican defeated a lesser group in the Rushaway at Turfway Park in March, run also on Polytrack, and that is the key for Dominican. Unfortunately for Dominican, the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt (for now). Dominican's winning time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Blue Grass was 1:51.33.What does all this mean for the Kentucky Derby? Absolutely nothing. Performance on Polytrack does not translate into performance on dirt. And it gets worse: Dominican is now 3 for 3 on Polytrack, and he is 0 for 4 on dirt. He is not a Derby threat.

Stormello

Stormello ran the race of his life in the Fountain of Youth (at Gulfstream) only to lose by a scant nose to Scat Daddy. Stormello came back to finish a tiring 4th in the Florida Derby, also won by Scat Daddy. Those two races took a toll on Stormello, and I see nothing in his past that leads me to believe he can rebound to hit the board in the Derby, unless the track comes up sloppy.

Bwana Bull

It looks like (owner) Mark DeDomenico and (trainer) Jerry Hollendorfer caught a bad case of Derby fever just in time to enter Bwana Bull in the Kentucky Derby field of twenty.  Bwana Bull is an outsider to be sure, having finished fifth in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten over five lengths by Tiago.  Bwana Bull has four wins in nine overall starts, and to his credit he does very well when placed in the right spot.  He won the California Derby (Golden Gate) by five lengths, and came right back to win the (grade 3) El Camino  Real Derby (Bay Meadows).  These efforts were at the upper limit of Bwana Bull's ability, and although he won both races, the Kentucky Derby will expose all of Bwana Bull's weaknesses, such as his three maiden allowance losses to open his career.

Imawildandcrazyguy

William Kaplan struggled with whether or not to enter Imawildandcrazyguy in the Derby. His claim to fame is a second place finish in the Risen Star (at the Fair Grounds), a race influenced by a traffic jam which took favorite Circular Quay out of contention. His best races other than the Risen Star
are an allowance optional claiming win and a maiden allowance win. Imawildandcrazyguy does not really have a classic pedigree, and he would be a major surprise.

For the Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Home Page  click here.

Click Here To Return To Kentucky Derby Home Page  
 
 

Copyright 2007
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com