What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the NetJets Mile Division (final update October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) - 110
2. Starcraft (NZ) - 88
3. Singletary - 73
4. Artie Schiller - 70
5. Rakti (GB) - 50
6. Valixir (IRE) - 46
7. Funfair (GB) - 43
8. Whipper - 22
9. Host (CHI) - 17
10. Three Valleys - 12

A few items of interest concerning this list:  The list is strongly weighted to Foreign based runners.  There are no fillies or mares on the list.  This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the NetJets Mile Division (final update October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. Artie Schiller 24 2. Sand Springs 22 3. Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) 16 4. Singletary 16 5. Host (CHI) 12 6. Limehouse 12 7. Gulch Approval 9 8. Osidy 8 9. Silver Tree 8 10. Funfair (GB) 6

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players?

No one knew that January 7, 2004 would be the start of one of thoroughbred racing's most exciting streaks since Cigar's record streak in 1995.  In his fifth lifetime start, an Allowance conditions event, the Brazilian bred Leroidesanimaux stormed from sixteen lengths off the pace to capture the victory.  On October 29, eight races later, and nearly ten months hence, Leroidesanimaux will attempt to win his ninth consecutive race, the Breeders Cup Mile.  During the streak, Leroidesanimaux has won three Grade 1 events, two Grade 2 events and one Grade 3 event.  His trainer is Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel.  Leroidesanimaux has won in California, New York and, most recently, in Canada.  He is the premier U. S. based grass miler, and he will take some beating.  He will undergo significant challenges from the Foreign contingent, particularly from the European based Starcraft.       

The outstanding Starcraft, a five year-old bred in New Zealand and trained by Luca Cumani, raced exclusively in Australia and New Zealand until 2005.  In the summer of 2005 he raced in two Group 1 events in Britain, losing to the accomplished Valixir and Oratorio.  Then in the fall, in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in Paris, Starcraft put it all together and defeated the outstanding French filly Gorella,  Majors Cast, Valixir and Whipper.  Three weeks later he topped that effort with a brilliant performance in the Group 1 Q. E. II Stakes at Newmarket, defeating the champion Dubawi as well as Rakti.  Both the Prix du Moulin and the Q. E. II are classic one mile grass events, perfect preps for Breeders Cup Mile at Belmont Park October 29.   

*** The connections of the New Zealand  wonder Starcraft have opted for the Classic.  This throws a monkey wrench into the works, because Starcraft is at the top of his game, and would have merited favoritism in the Breeders Cup Mile . ***

One of the better horses chasing Starcraft lately is the Irish bred Valixir, trained by the legendary Andre Fabre.  Valixir has two European Group 1 wins to his credit, including a victory over Starcraft in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at York in June.  In his most recent race, the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in Paris, Valixir finished fifth beaten four lengths by Starcraft.  Fabre will have Valixir at peak readiness for Breeders Cup Day.  

Patrick Biancone trains the up and coming filly Gorella.  With only ten races to her credit, the precocious three year-old filly seems to get stronger every time out.  In the Group 1 Prix d'Astarte at Lonchamp July 31, Gorella finished a strong third behind the hence retired superstar filly Divine Proportions and the German filly Shapira.  She followed that performance with an unbelievable second to Starcraft, facing Europe's strongest males in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  In her U. S. debut, the Grade 1 Q. E. II Cup at Keeneland, Gorella finished  a fast closing third behind Sweet Talker and Karen's Caper.  Make no mistake, Gorella will be a handful in the Breeders Cup Mile.

No conversation about the Breeders Cup Mile is complete without mention of the defending champion, Singletary, trained by Donald Chatlos.  Since his victory in the Breeders Cup Mile at Lone Star Park last October, Singletary has won twice, both were Grade 2 events, in five starts.   In the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita in March, his first start after a long freshening, Singletary was soundly defeated by Leroidesanimaux, who was in the midst of his winning streak.  In the Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar in July, Singletary finished a respectable third, and Singletary won his final prep, the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita October 8.  Singletary will a hard time repeating in 2005.

A latecomer to Breeders Cup Mile scene is the Chilian bred Host, trained by Todd Pletcher.  Host established himself as a respectable Grade 2 miler in late 2004.  Unraced for eight months, he burst back on the scene with a last to first breathtaking victory in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf at Keeneland October 8.  To be fair, the Shadwell field was woefully weak for a Grade 1 classification, and Host will have his hands full in the Breeders Cup Mile.

The Irish bred Majors Cast, handled by Jeremy Noseda, saved his best for last with a strong third in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  Majors Cast finished only two and one-half lengths shy of Starcraft, and a neck back of Gorella, in probably the best performance of his life.  Prior to the Prix du Moulin Major Cast has exhibited promise, but nothing that would foreshadow such a strong performance.  Usually, the Gods of Horse Racing only let the commoners taste such greatness once in a lifetime, so we'll expect Major Cast to return to Earth in his next performance, which may be the Breeders Cup Mile on October 29.

Robert Collet trains the French based Whipper.  After a freshening from late October 2004 to May 2005, Whipper seemed to blossom in the French Classics, first the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, and then the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp.  Whipper finished second at odds of six to one in the Prix Jacques le Marois, finishing ahead of the accomplished pair of Valixir and Divine Proportions, only a length and a half back of the spectacular Dubawi.  Following up on that superb effort, Whipper finished a very respectable fourth in the Prix du Moulin, won by the powerful Starcraft.  Having performed so admirably in these two key races, Whipper demands respect in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Sand Springs, a five year-old mare by Dynaformer, trained by William Mott, joins Gorella as the only two fillies and mares pre-entered in the Breeders Cup Mile.  Unlike Gorella, Sand Springs has never faced the boys, a tremendous disadvantage for this level of competition.  Sand Springs has captured three Graded Stakes events versus fillies and mares in 2005, including a victory over the best U. S. based female miler Intercontinental.

Artie Schiller, trained by James Jerkens, is one of the hardest working U. S. based milers, with thirteen starts in 2004 and 2005.  Artie Schiller is talented by U. S. Turf racing standards, but only another apple in the barrel by European Turf standards.  He will have trouble against his overseas counterparts.

The British bred Funfair began his American campaign in July at Delaware Park with a victory in a modest Optional Claiming race.  A little more than a month later, Funfair captured the Grade 2 Kelso at Belmont Park, defeating Artie Schiller by a head.  Funfair is mildly interesting as a longshot play, but at six years old he has never reached the heights of European Turf racing despite thirteen overseas races.  He would be a surprise in the Breeders Cup Mile.

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Mile?

The Mile Division is absolutely loaded in talent in 2005.  The overseas contingent is particularly strong, with such standouts as Valixir, Whipper and Gorella.  Least we forget the U. S. based Leroidesanimaux, in the midst of the streak of a lifetime.  To get an idea how the 2005 Mile Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  Notable previous winners include Val Royal, War Chant, and two time winners Da Hoss and Lure.  Notable beaten favorites are Artie Schiller, Rock of Gibraltar, In Excess and Favorite Trick. 

There have been some historic races in the history of the Breeders Cup Mile, and 2005 will add to that tradition.  The 2005 Breeders Cup Mile promises to be a monumental struggle from start to end. 

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Bessemer Trust Juvenile Division (updated October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. First Samurai - 110
2. Private Vow - 87
3. Henny Hughes - 84
4. Stevie Wonderboy - 77
5. Sorcerer's Stone - 68
6. Brother Derek - 31
7. George Washington (IRE) - 22
8. Dawn of War - 20
9. Flanders Fields - 19
10. Stream Cat - 18

A few items of interest concerning this list:  The top two rated colts, First Samurai and Private Vow, have never met on the playing field, so to speak, but they have both raced at the Breeders Cup host track, Belmont Park.  Meanwhile, First Samurai has beaten the third ranked colt, Henny Hughes, in both of their meetings.  The top European rated colt, the Irish-bred George Washington, has not been pre-entered, but the Irish bred Ivan Denisovich and the British bred Leo have been pre-entered.  This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Bessemer Trust Juvenile Division (updated October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. First Samurai 20 2. Henny Hughes 18 3. Dawn of War 10 4. Stream Cat 8 5. Stevie Wonderboy 7 6. Bashert 6 7. Brother Derek 6 8. Catcominatcha 6 9. Private Vow 6 10. A. P. Warrior 4

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

Everyone's consensus top selection going into the Breeders Cup Juvenile is First Samurai, the statuesque colt by Giant's Causeway, trained by Frank Brothers.  He has done nothing to discourage his protractors.  First Samurai has registered four convincing victories in four starts, including two wins over the lightning fast Henny Hughes.  In his final prep October 8, the Grade 1 Champagne at the Breeders Cup host track Belmont Park, run at one mile, First Samurai confidently collared a blazing Henny Hughes who was out on the loose after establishing a six furlong fraction of 1:08 and 3 over a sloppy surface.  By the time it was all over, First Samurai had built a winning margin of over two and one-half lengths and looked great doing it.  First Samurai also defeated Henny Hughes in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in August.  On that day, First Samurai won by a margin of over four lengths and looked as if he did not break a sweat doing it.  First Samurai deserves top billing going in to the Juvenile.  

Having played the role of Alydar to First Samurai's Affirmed, Henny Hughes seems destined to fail in his third attempt to dethrone the King.  But, alas, all is not lost.  Henny Hughes has beaten all comers in his five starts with the exception of First Samurai.  He is by the brilliant Hennessy on the Sire side, and is out of Meadow Flyer on the Dam side, and that adds up to royal bloodlines to be sure.  He is trained by a top shelf professional, Kiaran McLaughlin.  He defeated the third place finisher Superfly by nearly ten lengths in the Champagne at Belmont Park, and shows no signs of giving up.  Henny Hughes has a chance to win the Juvenile.  He has a bit of a mountain to climb, but do not count him out.  

Storming onto the scene with a scintillating victory in the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont Park in September is Private Vow.  Granted it was a limited field of six, void of any big name stars except for Private Vow himself, but it was the way that Private Vow went about his business that impressed.  Private Vow was timed in 1:24 flat over seven panels, and that while being ridden out to the wire.  Very impressive.  Very impressive, indeed.  He has four lifetime starts, winning the most recent three by a combined sixteen lengths and spare change.  Detractors may argue that Private Vow has never gone longer than seven furlongs, and that it is a valid point, but who's to say that on Breeders Cup Championship Day he won't relish the one and one-sixteenth mile distance over the Belmont main course.  Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Jerry Bailey, he is poised for a top effort.

A relative newcomer to the fray is the Dale Romans trained Dawn of War, surprise winner of the Grade 1 Lane'e End Breeders Futurity at Keeneland October 8.  To be sure, the Futurity field lacked the depth of the Champagne, and that's putting it kindly.  But Dawn of War showed us a new gear in the Futurity he had not yet revealed, and the momentum of that performance can only help on October 29. 

A more interesting prospect from the Futurity at Keeneland is the late running Stream Cat, trained by Patrick Biancone.  Having been asked to yield training responsibilities for Henny Hughes to Kiaran McLaughlin, who is affiliated with Sheikh Rajid, the son of Sheikh Mohammed, Biancone would like nothing better than to take the Juvenile crown with Stream Cat.  Stream Cat lost all chance in the Futurity by breaking last in the field of twelve, and then racing six wide into the stretch.  He still managed to finish third, some six lengths behind the winner Dawn of War, a testimonial to his closing ability.  With hot pace expected from the likes of Henny Hughes and Private Vow among others, Stream Cat may hold all the aces in deep stretch, where it counts. 

Nick Zito trains the steadily improving Superfly , son of Fusaichi Pegasus, and third place finisher to First Samurai and Henny Hughes in the Champagne October 8.  Prior to the Champagne, Superfly captured the Whirling Ash at Delaware Park in front running fashion to defeat Kid Lemonade.  With the patient Zito at the helm, the lightly raced Superfly could surprise on Breeders Cup Day, and inclusion in exotic bets will offer value.   

Sorcerer's Stone, a son of Gulch and handled by Patrick Byrne, raised more than a few eyebrows in the Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park September 18.  Sorcerer's Stone broke alertly and romped to an eight and one-half length victory, ridden out to the wire, and timed at 1:35 flat for the one mile distance.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that the Arlington-Washington Futurity field holds no water when compared to the likes of the Hopeful at Saratoga or the Champagne at Belmont Park.  The other claim to fame for Sorcerer's Stone is a victory over Private Vow in a Churchill Downs Maiden Special Weight event run at four and one-half furlongs in July.  

Shifting our attention to the West Coast, Doug O'Neil of California fame has chosen to train Stevie Wonderboy up to the Breeders Cup Juvenile without a follow-up race to his Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity victory September 7.  Stevie Wonderboy is by Stephen Got Even, whose sire is A. P. Indy.  On the Dam side, Stephen Got Even is out of Heat Lightning, who is by Summer Squall, so the bloodlines are there.  Expect Stevie Wonderboy to give a good accounting of himself on Breeders Cup Day.

The outstanding Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien has won at the Breeders Cup before, and he has chosen not to pre-enter his top Juvenile prospects George Washington or Horatio Nelson at this time.  George Washington captured the Group 1 National Stakes at The Curragh in September.  Horatio Nelson won the Futurity Stakes, also at Curragh.  Each of these colts would merit respect in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

The Irish bred Ivan Denisovich, also trained by Aidan O'Brien, has been pre-entered.  Ivan Denisovich has won twice in five lifetime starts, including the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket.

The British bred Leo, trained by John Gosden, has been pre-entered, and he has finished second to Horatio Nelson in the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July.  Leo secured a Group 2 victory in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket in September.

If you're looking for a longshot in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, look no further than Jealous Profit, trained by Doug O'Neil who also trains Stevie Wonderboy.  Jealous Profit is lightly raced with only three lifetime starts, and finished a very willing third in his final prep, the Grade 2 Norfolk at Santa Anita October 2.  He finished third in the Del Mar Futurity, won by Stevie Wonderboy, in September after being shut off at the start and rallying late.  If the big boys falter, Jealous Profit may be there to pick up the pieces.  


What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile?

The Juvenile Division is particularly rich in talent in 2005.  The outstanding colts First Samurai and Henny Hughes may be the stars, but there are many talented understudies in this year's crop of two year-olds.  To get an idea how the 2005 Juvenile Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  Notable previous winners include  Johannesburg, Anees, Favorite Trick,  Arazi and Boston Harbor.  Notable beaten favorites are Roman Ruler, A. P. Valentine and Officer. 

There have been some huge prices in the history of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and 2005 could add to that tradition.  The 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile promises to be an exciting and competitive, and possibly unpredictable event. 
 

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Alberto VO5 Juvenile Fillies Division (updated October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Folklore - 107
2. Adieu - 98
3. Original Spin - 70
4. Wild Fit - 61
5. Diamond Omi - 50
6. Rumplestiltskin (IRE) - 37
7. Sensation - 34
8. Mystery Girl - 30
9. She Says It Best - 23
10. Beau Dare - 22

A few items of interest concerning this list:  The top two rated fillies, Folklore and Adieu, have both excelled on the Breeders Cup host track, Belmont Park.  The consensus top European threat, the Irish-bred Rumplestiltskin, has not been pre-entered, but still has until the entry deadline to be submitted.  This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Alberto VO5 Juvenile Fillies Division (updated October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. Folklore	20
2. Adieu	16
3. Wild Fit	14
4. Along the Sea	12
5. Diamond Omi	6
6. Ex Caelis	6
7. Miss Norman	6
8. Mystery Girl	6
9. She Says It Best	6
10. Bully Bones	4
11. Effectual	4
12. Fifth Avenue	4
13. Keeneland Kat	4
14. Original Spin	4
15. River's Prayer	4
16. Sensation	4

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

With a powerful stretch run in her final prep, the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park October 8, Adieu sealed her fourth victory in five lifetime starts.  Adieu, trained by Todd Pletcher, has defeated her main rival Folklore in two of three meetings, including the Grade 2 Spinaway in August at Saratoga.  Preaching as devil's advocate, I must point out that Adieu has never raced Folklore at longer than seven furlongs, and in her only start at one mile Adieu benefited from a sloppy track.  That said, Adieu has defeated the underrated Along the Sea in both the Frizette and the Spinaway.  Adieu is one of the top prospects in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.   

The filly of the moment is clearly Folklore, daughter of Tiznow and trained by the legendary D Wayne Lukas.  Folklore absolutely obliterated the competition in the Grade 1 Matron at Belmont September 17.  She dispatched six fellow combatants in a sizzling 123 and 3 for seven panels and did not even have to use all her gears.  This was a different Folklore than the one who failed to run down Adieu in deep stretch in the Spinaway in late August.  Folklore won the Matron by an astounding fourteen lengths over the stunned Miss Norman (second) and Along the Sea (third).  Folklore has three wins and three seconds in six starts, and her effort in the Matron has catapulted her to the lead in the Juvenile Fillies Division.

The forgotten filly in the head-to-head battles between Adieu and Folklore is the steadily improving Along the Sea.  Along the Sea, trained by Ralph Ziadie, has four lifetime starts.  After breaking her maiden easily at Calder in July, Along the Sea finished third in the Grade 2 Spinaway in August, behind Adieu and Folklore, beaten only four lengths and finishing well in the seven furlong event.  Next up, Along the Sea was one of the victims of the huge Folklore performance in the Grade 1 Matron in September, also run at seven furlongs.  Of note in the Matron, Along the Sea broke through the starting gate prior to the race, and still managed to gather herself and deliver a strong performance.  Finally, in the Grade 1 Frizette October 8, her final prep, Along the Sea closed gamely on a sloppy track to finish second, only two lengths shy of the winner Adieu.  On a fast track the outcome could easily have been reversed.  Along the Sea is not even ranked in the top ten of the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll , a mistake by the expert panel to be sure.  Along the Sea is a prime candidate for a value play if she runs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

Shifting our attention to the West Coast, we examine the lightly raced filly Wild Fit, trained by Jeff Mullins.  Wild Fit, with only three lifetime starts, broke her maiden at Del Mar in mid August.  She promptly captured the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante August 27 by rallying from near last to overtake Mystery Girl for the win.  A general lack of early speed proved a problem for Wild Fit in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita October 1, where she finished second behind Diamond Omi.  With a chance to continue to improve off her light schedule, Wild Fit is a logical exotics play for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly. 

Diamond Omi, the benefactor of the slow paced fractions of the Oak Leaf, is not a serious threat in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

Mystery Girl, the runner-up to Wild Fit in the Del Mar Debante, finished fourth in the My Dear Girl run at Calder October 15 over a sloppy main track.  She has not been pre-entered for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

D Wayne Lukas tends to work his magic with Juvenile runners, and Folklore is not his only major player in the Juvenile Filly Division.  A late bloomer for Lukas is the talented Ex Caelis, daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus.  Ex Caelis was the runner-up in the Grade 2 Alcibiad at Keeneland October 2.  She chased the gate-to-wire winer She Says It Best to gain the place.  Ex Caelis also finished second in the Grade 3 Arlington Breeders Cup Lassie September 17.  Although she is eligible to improve off her light schedule, Ex Caelis has not faced the top level of competition the Juvenile Filly Division has to offer. 

She Says It Best, winner of the Alcibiad at odds of 9.7 to 1 and handled by Vickie Foley, figures to be prominent in the early pace of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly, but does not pose a serious threat to win.  

Knights Templar is one of the more intriguing fillies pointed to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.  Danny Vella, formerly a member of Frank Stronach's team, trains Knights Templar and has campaigned her exclusively at Woodbine in Canada.  Knights Templar has three wins and one second in six lifetime starts, including a dominating victory in the Grade 3 Mazarine Breeders Cup Stakes October 1, her final Breeders Cup prep.  Knights Templar, not unlike probable favorite Folklore, is blossoming at the right time, and is to be feared in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.  The only question is how she responds to the significantly higher level of competition the Breeders Cup will guarantee.  That's why they call it horse racing.    

The winner of Arlington Breeders Cup Lassie, Original Spin, has only two lifetime starts to her credit.  Anthony Mitchell, her trainer, is doing wonders with Original Spin, but the Arlington Breeders Cup Lassie is a far cry from the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.  Original Spin would be a major surprise.

The Stanley Hough trained Sensation seems a more logical dark horse, having already faced the powerful triumvirate of Adieu, Folklore and Along the Sea in the Spinaway at Saratoga August 27.  Adieu, Folklore and Along the Sea took the first three positions in the Spinaway, and Sensation finished fourth in the field of seven, going seven furlongs.  Sensation returned October 2 to win the Grade 2 Astarita at Belmont, a six furlong sprint.  There were only six in the field in the Astarita, but Sensation delivered a powerful performance nonetheless. 


What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly?

The Juvenile Filly Division is strong in 2005 due in no small part to the powerful one-two punch of Folklore and Adieu.  These fillies have laid the gauntlet down, and challengers such as Knights Templar, Wild Fit and Ex Caelis must make their case known.  To get an idea how the 2005 Juvenile Filly Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  Notable previous winners include  Half Bridled, Silverbulletday, Storm Song, My Flag and Flanders.  Notable beaten favorites are You and Raging Fever.

Whenever two year-old fillies are involved, anything can happen, and usually does.  The 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly promises to be an exciting, and perhaps unpredictable event. 
 

What Are The Available Polls And Rankings?

A good place to start is the World Thoroughbred Championships Poll for the Emirates Airline Distaff Division (updated October 9, 2005). This list is compiled by a panel of prominent international journalists and handicappers.

1. Ashado - 106
2. Stellar Jayne - 92
3. Society Selection - 76
4. Happy Ticket - 67
5. In the Gold - 54
6. Sweet Symphony - 44
7. Healthy Addiction - 35
8. Smuggler - 24
9. Island Fashion - 22
10. Pampered Princess - 14

A few items of interest concerning this list:  The top rated filly is Ashado, winner of the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff.  The fifth rated filly is trained by Nick Zito, who is always to be respected at Belmont Park, the host site for the 2005 Breeders Cup Championships.  This is an independent list from the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings.

Here are the World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings for the Emirates Airline Distaff Division (updated October 9, 2005). The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings is a Breeders Cup Championship Day qualification tool invented by the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) in conjunction with Breeders Cup Limited.

1. In the Gold - 54
2. Ashado - 32
3. Summerly - 30
4. Smuggler - 24
5. Happy Ticket - 24
6. Memorette - 24
7. Society Selection - 22
8. Spun Sugar - 22
9. Dream of Summer - 20
10. Island Fashion - 20

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings are compiled from North American Graded Stakes races only. 

The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings determine which horses are automatically eligible for a Breeders Cup Championship race. A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each Championship Day race. If more then 14 horses are entered then the race is "oversubscribed." This is where the Breeders Cup points system kicks in. During the year, horses that finish first, second, or third in Graded stakes races earn points. More points are earned in Grade 1 events than in Grade 2 events. For example, a winner of a Grade 1 race earns ten points, while a winner of a Grade 2 race earns six points. The number of points a horse has is critical when a race is oversubscribed. The first seven positions in an oversubscribed field are ranked based on the point system. These seven get to run based on their points. The last seven positions are determined by a combination of points earned and the opinions of an expert panel. This provides a "buffer zone" to allow late bloomers to get a chance to race against their peers, and in the case of the Breeders Cup Turf events, a chance for the superior European turf specialists to compete.

The World Thoroughbred Championships Poll is a better indicator of the top contenders than The World Thoroughbred Championship Divisional Point Standings because it is not dependent on a rigid point system, and because it considers horses competing in races held outside North America.

Who Are The Players ?

With an astonishing nine lifetime Graded Stakes victories, including seven Grade 1 scores, and a lifetime performance record of twelve wins, four places and two shows in twenty overall races, Ashado is truly a champion.  And, oh yes, she is defending champion of the Breeders Cup Distaff, having won in 2004 as a three year-old.  And there's more.  She was the runner-up in the 2003 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Now that's what I call a resume.  What has she done lately?  Her final prep was the Beldame at Belmont Park October 1, which she won and in the process defeated the speedy sensation Happy Ticket and the powerful three year-old Sweet Symphony.  Case closed?  Not quite.  Ashado has been beaten in three of her six starts in 2005.  In two of the three defeats she ran out of the money.  What's going on?  The combination of the wear and tear of her brilliant but strenuous career, and her growing vulnerability to the sometimes heated pace of Grade 1 affairs, particularly at distances of a mile and an eighth or more, has created perceptible chinks in the armor.  Beware of jumping on the "media bandwagon" with Ashado.  It could cost you money, in terms of a lost bet, or an undervalued bet.  But make no mistake, Ashado deserves all the accolades, and Todd Pletcher will certainly have her ready to compete.  

Dream of Summer seemed a prime candidate to upset the favorite Ashado in the Grade 1 Beldame October 1.  A talented stalker, she defeated Ashado in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park in April.  However, in the Beldame, Dream of Summer never got into a rhythm, and ran a disappointing sixth.  Juan Garcia, trainer of Dream of Summer, has indicated she will not be entered in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

The Andrew Leggio trained Louisiana bred filly, Happy Ticket, blazed into the Breeders Cup spotlight by winning the Grade 3 victory in the Chicago Breeders Cup Handicap June 18, at Arlington Park, and the Grade 1 Ballerina August 28 at Saratoga.  Happy Ticket went head to head with the champion Ashado October 1 in the Beldame before yielding grudgingly in deep stretch.  Her only knock is the predominantly Louisiana bred competition which dominated her 2004 campaign.  That said, Andrew Leggio is doing a masterful job with the talented four year-old filly.

The lightly raced Bill Mott charge Sweet Symphony, a beautiful three year-old filly, dominated her fellow three year-olds in a spectacular victory in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga in August.  In the Alabama she defeated Spun Sugar, also a fine three year-old filly.  Sweet Symphony, trying her elders for the first time in the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont October 1, finished an even fourth behind the powerful triumvirate of Ashado, Happy Ticket and Society Selection.  Sweet Symphony is not be underestimated, and may be a value play in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

Sweet Symphony is not the only three year-old filly hoping to win the Breeders Cup Distaff.  Spun Sugar is trained by Todd Pletcher and captured the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan over a sloppy track at Pimlico in May.  Spun Sugar was second to Smuggler in the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in June.  Spun Sugar was a spirited second to the phenom Sweet Symphony in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga in August.

Trained by Allen Jerkens, the four year-old filly Society Selection has quietly amassed five wins, four places and three shows in Graded Stakes competition in her outstanding career.  In the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont on June 18, Society Selection ran a game second behind Ashado, although there were only five in the field.  The July 31 Grade 1 Go For Wand at Saratoga was the setting for the next battle between Society Selection and Ashado.  Ashado easily won the rematch, finishing first, some twelve lengths ahead of fourth place finisher Society Selection.  In her final prep, the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont, Society Selection finished a comfortable third behind Ashado and Happy Ticket.  Society Selection is most at home in the stalking position, and would represent a titillating wagering opportunity in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

An intriguing filly is the three year-old In the Gold, trained by the crafty Nick Zito.  She is fairly lightly raced with ten lifetime starts, but each start was carefully chosen to allow her to mature and improve toward a Breeders Cup Distaff berth.  In the Gold raced four times as a juvenile and managed a third place finish in the Grade 3 Alcibiad at Keeneland.  Early in her sophomore campaign she registered a second in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and followed that with a second in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss, both at Gulfstream Park.  She continued to improve later in the 2005 campaign, culminating in a gutsy victory in the Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont Park in September.  Zito has been pointing In the Gold toward the Breeders Cup Distaff since the get go, and she should not be underestimated.  Playing devil's advocate, one can argue In the Gold has not faced her elders in Graded Stakes competition.  And examining her pedigree, the Dam Sire Groovy may inject an unwanted dose of sprinter characteristics into In the Gold, limiting her ability to route against the best in the Distaff Division.

Saeed bin Suroor trains the four year-old filly Stellar Jayne, last year's third place finisher in the Breeders Cup Distaff.  Stellar Jayne has been training forwardly to the 2005 Distaff, and she captured the Grade 1 Ruffian Stakes at Belmont in September in gate to wire fashion.  As a three year-old, Stellar Jayne won the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont, defeating Ashado in the process, at odds of twenty-nine to one.  Stellar Jayne certainly boasts impressive credentials, and is not to be overlooked in the Distaff.

The five year-old mare Island Fashion, trained by Marcelo Polanco, is a rugged competitor with twenty-five lifetime starts, six of them wins.  Of note is her fifth place finish in the 2004 Breeders Cup Distaff, in which she reached third place in the stretch before giving way after a very wide trip at Lone Star Park.  Her final prep was the October 2 Grade 2 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita, where she finished a hard fought third as the betting favorite.  Island Fashion often races against males, most recently in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August, finishing ninth.  The talented Borrego was the winner in the Pacific Classic. In the July 23 Grade 1 Vanity at Hollywood Park, Island Fashion managed a second, beaten a neck by the three year-old Splendid Blended.

The West Coast based Healthy Addiction, a four year-old filly trained by John Sadler, made a big splash by capturing the Grade 2 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita on October 2.  Healthy Addiction had not seen action since her sixth place finish in the July 3 Grade 1 Vanity at Hollywood Park, won by Splendid Blended.  Having started in only a handful of Graded Stakes races, Healthy Addiction is considered an outsider for the Breeders Cup Distaff.
 

What is the quality of the field for the 2005 Breeders Cup Distaff?

The Distaff Division is more competitive than the media may lead us to believe.  The champion filly Ashado has lost three of her six starts this year, and she is no longer invincible.  Serious challenges are certain to be mounted from several in the field, perhaps Sweet Symphony, In the Gold, Society Selection, or Stellar Jayne.  The Breeders Cup Distaff is destined to be a highly competitive affair.  To get an idea how the 2005 Distaff Division compares to previous years, we revisit champions of the past.  The Breeders Cup Distaff is is rich with history.   Notable previous winners include  Personal Ensign, Azeri,  Lady's Secret, Hollywood Wildcat, Paseana,  Dance Smartly and Bayakoa.  Notable beaten favorites are Sightseek, Riboletta and Sky Beauty.

Is it possible for the 2005 Breeders Cup to produce a champion in the rich tradition of the event?  Perhaps, perhaps not.  However, with the talent present in the Distaff Division, it is guaranteed we will see a race worth remembering.