Breeders Cup Sprint

Synopsis  Churchill Downs Race 6

With Bordonaro supplemented to the Sprint following his big victory in the Grade 1 Ancient Title Breeders' Cup, an historic duel could very well shape up with the west coast star Bordonaro against the east coast star Henny Hughes.  Bill Spawr trains the speedster Bordonaro, winner of nine races in twelve tries, all in California.  A son of the Chilean-bred Memo, Bordonaro is scary fast but he has never seen a horse like Henny Hughes before.  Henny Hughes, a son of the champion Hennessy, has six wins in nine starts, seven of those starts in graded stakes.  Henny Hughes looks to be the classiest horse (in the Sprint) off his dominant win over War Front in the Vosburgh at Belmont.  Kiaran McLaughlin trains Henny Hughes for Zabeel Racing International, headed up by Sheikh Rashid of the famed Maktoum family of the United Arab Emirates.  Trainer McLaughlin has brought Henny Hughes into his 2006 campaign carefully and deliberately, having raced him only three times (this year), all dominating victories.  The result is a championship caliber horse in tip-top condition.  The only chance to beat Henny Hughes is on the front end, and if Bordonaro can't do it maybe Kelly's Landing can.  In the summer of 2005 Kelly's Landing set a record for six panels at Churchill Downs at 107 and 2 in graded stakes company.  Handler Eddie Kenneally's horses are very good in big events and Kelly's Landing may have the best chance to score the upset.  The fourth place finisher in last year's Breeders Cup Sprint, Attila's Storm, returns for another try in 2006, but must overcome any remnants of a serious injury (hind leg fracture) to do so.  A third place finish to Henny Hughes in the Vosburgh was promising, but Henny Hughes was not even tested on that day.  Bob Baffert enters Too Much Bling after nearly two months off and Bling is a definite threat for the exotics, although he does not match up well against the duo of Henny Hughes and Bordonaro.  Too Much Bling is a big talent, but not as fast as Bordonaro and not with the staying power of Henny Hughes.  West coast sprinter Siren Lure enters the fray (for trainer Art Sherman) after an awkward 76 days off and a series of brilliant but brutally draining sprints.   Seventy-six days is not long enough to heal anything but minor bumps and bruises, and it's too long of a layoff to stay really fresh. Siren Lure has beaten Pure As Gold, but he has not faced the best sprinters in the division.  Pomeroy returns to the track for the first time since winning the Forego at Saratoga (63 days ago) and he also has a chance to hit the board.  Henny Hughes and Too Much Bling are the only 3-year-olds in the field, but they both belong.  Friendly Island, a 5-year-old trained by Pletcher, has become a reliable sprinter in graded stakes, without being brilliant.  He has managed a second to Bordonaro and a third to Pomeroy, and the speedy New York bred son of Crafty Friend could be an exotics factor.  Nightmare Affair is a hard-knocking Florida bred with 11 wins in 41 overall starts, including an upset win over Pomeroy in the Smile Sprint Handicap (Calder) in July, but next out Nightmare Affair was well-beaten by Pomeroy in the Forego.  Thor's Echo (trained by Doug O'Neil) is always on or near the pace in sprints in California, but he is another who has not faced the top east coast sprinters.  Nick Zito pre-entered Commentator at the last moment, and the speedy New York bred has a big Whitney Handicap (2005) win over Saint Liam to his credit.  Commentator is not a pure sprinter, and his tenth place finish in the Forego supports that premise, and Nick Zito may have seen the writing on the wall as Commentator has been withdrawn from the Sprint.  In the place of Commentator will be the alternate Areyoutalkintome, a Doug O'Neil charge.  Despite a recent second in the Phoenix on Keeneland's new polytrack surface, Areyoutalkintome has only eight wins in thirty-four starts on dirt and has only limited possibilities in the Sprint.  War Front is very consistent with a win and five seconds in his last five races (all graded stakes) and he has traded punches with Henny Hughes, Pomeroy, Silver Train, and Friendly Island.  Although it appears he suffers from a bad case of "second-itis," his handler Allen Jerkens is known as the "giant killer" so we won't ignore War Front.  Malibu Mint (a filly) rallied from off the pace to win the T.C.A. Stakes (Keeneland) on polytrack, but on dirt Malibu Mint is limited and is not a serious threat to win the Sprint.  Darby Stable pre-entered Dubai Escapade (trained by one-time Baffert assistant Eoin Harty), a 4-year-old filly.  She's never faced the boys, but Dubai Escapade does have six wins in eight starts against the girls, and three of those wins were in graded stakes.  Dubai Escapade is a freaky fast filly, but she has been withdrawn from the Sprint, and it would have taken a monumental effort to beat the boys at this level.  Lewis Michael draws in to replace Dubai Escapade.  Lewis Michael is bred to excel on the grass, but he has shown promise on dirt with one win and three seconds in five starts.  Lewis Michael, a 3-year-old, is untested at this (Breeders Cup) level, though, and has been confined to routes for the most part. 

Breeders Cup Mile

Synopsis  Churchill Downs Race 7

The connections of European champion miler George Washington have been wavering on whether to run George Washington in the Mile or Breeder's Cup Classic, and the Classic has won out.  Filling the void nicely is champion filly miler Gorella.  Gorella has raced well against the world's finest grass runners, including Starcraft and Divine Proportions, and she is a splendid fit in the Mile, fresh off a professional win in the Fist Lady (Keeneland).  Gorella is as reliable as they come, with three consecutive graded stakes wins in the U.S., and she has no faults except a tendency to get bored when she reaches the lead.  To give you an idea how good this (4-year-old) filly is, consider her troubled trip in the (2005) Breeders Cup Turf.  After being steadied repeatedly, Gorella closed from tenth to finish third, beaten less than a length, while racing against the best males in the world.  The defection of George Washington also enhances the chances of U.S. based miler Aragorn, an Irish-bred colt handled by Neil Drysdale.  Aragorn is in the midst of a four-race wining streak, the last a strong performance in the Grade 2 Oak Tree Breeder's Cup, but Aragorn is relatively lightly raced and has never faced top European caliber competition before.  Aragorn, a son of European champion Giant's Causeway, dominated the division in California this year, and could be a wild card on the Churchill turf course.  Librettist, a 4-year-old in the Godolphin Stable, was announced lame after his 6th place finish in the Q.E. II stakes at Ascot in September, his only loss in 6 starts.  Librettist finished ten lengths to the worse of winner George Washington in the Q.E. II, but his condition has improved enough for Godophin to enter him in the Mile.  Librettist is going to be one of the best three or four milers in the race.  Echo Of light is another Godolphin entry, a three-time stakes winner in 2006, including the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp on September 30.  When confronted with grass phenoms David Junior and Pride in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Newmarket) Echo Of Light finished fifteenth (last) beaten 26 lengths.  Araafa, a 3-year-old, finished second to George Washington in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in September.  Araafa also won two Group 1 races earlier this year (the Irish 2000 Guineas and the St. James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot) and will be retired to stud at Ascot after Breeders Cup.  With a solid record against Europe's best milers, Araafa tries his luck in the Breeders Cup Mile (his first race on U.S. soil).  Aiden O'Brien trains Aussie Rules, the winner of the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland.  The Shadwell win was Aussie Rules's first since the French 2000 Guineas in May, ending a four-race losing streak, all in Group 1 races.  Two of the four losses were to Librettist and David Junior, both "character-building" efforts for Aussie Rules, and the talented son of Danehill could be ripe for an upset in the Mile.  Miesque's Approval, who ran fourth behind Aussie Rules in the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in October, is handled by trainer Marty Wolfson.  Wolfson said a troubled journey from Florida to Keeneland for the Shadwell Mile took its toll, and a tough campaign overall in 2006 may hurt the chances of Miesque's Approval.  Miesque's Approval may have a home court advantage at Churchill Downs, though.  "He likes the turf course there," Wolfson said. "His run in the Firecracker was very strong."  Adien O'brien enters Ad Valorem as well as Aussie Rules, and should Gorella and Librettist waver Ad Valorem could be there to pick up the pieces.  His strength is the ability to combine power and early speed, and with his relatively light race schedule and (recent) fast closing third in the Woodbine (Canada) Mile, Ad Valorem looks to have had the "screws tightened" by Aiden O'Brien and he could offer excellent value.  Badge Of Silver is headed for Breeders Cup Mile, and Bobby Frankel would need a herculean effort from Badge Of Silver (off a ten month hiatus) to get a win in the Turf. Stranger things have happened, but we look to others for the win.  Craig Dollase enters west coaster Courtnall, no doubt due to Courtnall's strong second to Aragorn in the Oak Tree Mile (Santa Anita) but with only two wins in fourteen starts Courtnall will be an outsider.  Free Thinking finished second to Ashkal Way in the Kelso (Belmont) but earlier in the year was beaten by the younger (and less accomplished) Rush Bay and Purim. Irish bred Ivan Desinovich (trained by Aiden O'Brien) has taken on all comers, with mixed results. In the (2005) Breeders Cup Juvenile Ivan Desinovich finished twelfth, but that was on dirt.  He finished 4 1/2 lengths back of Aussie Rules this year at Longchamp, and Ivan Desinovich finished 3 3/4 lengths back of Araafa at Ascot.  In his only U.S. start in 2006, Ivan Desinovich ran a spirited second to Showing Up in the Secretariat (Arlington), and he looks like a possible trifecta threat in the Mile today.  The French filly Mauralakana migrated to the U.S. in late summer and has put forth two sterling efforts since arriving.  Mauralakana rallied furiously in the Q.E. II (Keeneland) to finish second (beaten half a length) to the outstanding Vacare.  The connections of Vacare chose to bypass Breeders Cup because the Q.E. II took so much out of her.  But Patrick Biancone is confident Mauralakana can rebound and who are we to doubt him?  Lewis Michael is bred to excel on the grass, and he notched a victory in the Grand Canyon Handicap (Churchill Downs) in 2005, and he also managed a third to Barbaro in the Tropical Park Derby (Calder) this year, however the 3-year-old is untested at this (Breeders Cup) level.  Silent Name is one of the many success stories of the Japanese breeding industry centered on the Halo line, and Silent Name has compiled a win and two thirds in graded stakes in the U.S.  He didn't have an answer to Aussie Rules, though, in the Shadwell, finishing seventh but beaten only 2 3/4 lengths.   Rob Roy split the powerful pair of Pride and Hurricane Run in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Newmarket) and gets a long look based on that effort.   Rob Roy owns three wins in eleven starts.   Sleeping Indian has a Group 2 and a Group 3 victory but faces much stronger in the B.C. Mile.

Breeders Cup Distaff

Synopsis  Churchill Downs Race 8

Balletto, an interesting Darley Stable reclamation project (with trainer Thomas Albertrani), finished second in the 2004 Breeders Cup Juvy Fillies but did not race at all in 2005.  Balletto has no wins in five starts in 2006, but is rounding into form nicely for Thomas Albertrani.  Bred in the U.A.E., Balletto is a talented mare with a habit of showing up for big races.  She finished second by a head to Fleet Indian in the Beldame in October and cannot be discounted in the Distaff.  Todd Pletcher enters Fleet Indian, recent winner over Balletto in the Beldame, a race in which Fleet Indian rallied from off the pace.  Rating off the pace is a side to Fleet Indian we haven't seen before, and it could portend well as to her chances in the Breeders Cup Distaff.  Asi Siempre (trained by Patrick Biancone) recently won the Spinster at Keeneland over the new polytrack surface.  Asi Siempre is generally thought of as a turf mare, and although polytrack ability does not necessarily transfer to the dirt, Asi Siempre will offer value if ignored by the betting public.  Round Pond, third place finisher in the Beldame, is headed to the Distaff as well, but the talented mare is at the tail end of a hard fought campaign in 2006 and would be a surprise to win the Distaff.  Summerly and Happy Ticket are two stars in the division that have a chance, and we can ignore their finishes in the Spinster on polytrack.  Happy Ticket is a big threat for trainer Andrew Leggio.  She has tactical speed and plenty of staying power, and with twelve wins and five seconds in nineteen overall starts, Happy Ticket is unnervingly consistent.  Summerly has suffered a disappointing summer campaign but could offer value based on her past class, but we will not accept low odds on Summerly.  Healthy Addiction needs an off track to seriously contend in the lane, and otherwise she is just classy pace fodder.  Spun Sugar, trained by Todd Pletcher and a daughter of Awesome Again, is a bit of a dark horse due to her dependence on speed, but if Spun Sugar rates off the pace she may have a chance to run very well.  Her odds will determine if she is a good betting proposition or not. Hollywood Story is not a Breeders Cup winning caliber mare, but she is not a throw-out for the superfecta.  Lemons Forever is probably not a major threat to win, either, but with only ten overall starts, excellent breeding, and a determined running style, Lemons Forever is a betting proposition for the exotics.  Pine Island, a 3-year-old, has made rapid progress and enters the toughest race of her brief career.  We do not expect betting value with the talented but green Pine Island. Alex Solis, who rode Bushfire to victory in the Grade 1 Acorn, will ride her for handler Eddie Kenneally in the Distaff, but Bushfire's one-dimensional front running style limits her possibilities in the Distaff.  Todd Pletcher enters Pool Land (a daughter of Silver Deputy) in a difficult spot, namely because she will be trading early strides with Pletcher's other two charges (in the Distaff), Fleet Indian and Spun Sugar.  Pool Land is very fast but so are Spun Sugar and Fleet Indian.  The more the merrier, as far as Todd Pletcher is concerned.

Breeders Cup Turf

Synopsis  Churchill Downs Race 9

The Breeders Cup Turf has regained much of its luster in 2006 with the last minute entries of three European stars:  Hurricane Run, Red Rocks, and Scorpion.  Shirocco (last year's Breeders Cup Turf winner) and David Junior (will be running in the Classic today) will be absent, but Europe is well represented regardless.  How good are the European invaders?  Andre Fabre trains Hurricane Run, the most feared turf runner in the world until he hit a bump in the road with a (current) three race losing streak.  In September, Shirocco edged Hurricane Run in the Prix Foy Gray D'Albion (Longchamp) which also featured the outstanding Pride.  Hurricane Run then finished fourth in the prestigious Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Longchamp), beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Rail Link (Pride ran second).  Hurricane Run again lost to Pride in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Newmarket).  Hurricane Run probably left a little of himself on the track in the Prix Foy Gray D'Albion, but with eight wins in thirteen overall starts, against the best competition in the world, Hurricane Run is to be feared in the B.C. Turf.  Hurricane Run's victims include Bago, Alexander Goldrun, Electrocutionist, Shirocco, and Scorpion.  The lightly raced Scorpion is handled by Aiden O'Brien, who must feel Scorpion is ready to rebound to his old form after a long one year layoff.  Scorpion suffered a fractured hind leg in late 2005 but returned to racing with a spirited second (to Frank Sonata) in a non-group stakes (Curragh).  In his heyday Scorpion finished second to Hurricane Run in the Group 1 Budweiser Irish Derby, but traveling across the Atlantic and winning the B.C. Turf is a lot to ask.  Red Rocks, Hurricane Run, and Scorpion all share the same second sire, Sadler's Wells, a phenomenal source of turf aptitude, and the 3-year-old Red Rocks has flashed some of the brilliance of rival Hurricane Run this year.  In his previous four races, all Group 1 or 2, Red Rocks has recorded three seconds and one third, including a second to Rail Link in the Judmonte Grand Prix De Paris (Longchamp).  What Red Rocks lacks in experience, he makes up in talent.  How do the U.S. based runners look in the Turf?  For starters, the North American Turf contingent is stronger than usual this year.  Cacique and English Channel are each going to be competitive in the Turf.  Cacique faced some of the best of Europe (including Starcraft, Gorella, and Valixir) before migrating to the U.S. in 2006, and he has put together an impressive run including two wins and three seconds in five starts in the U.S., all Grade 1 events.  A son of Danehill with a regal grass pedigree, Cacique possesses a versatile running style and is a legitimate contender.  English Channel, another good American hopeful, will be hindered by the entry (to the Turf) of the European contingent.  Todd Pletcher has brought this 4-year-old chestnut colt to his peak performance in late 2006, and English Channel's strength is his ability to combine a close-up stalking style with strong energy in the stretch.  English Channel, though, does not possess the stretch kick of a Hurricane Run.  With the entry of Hurricane Run, Red Rocks, and Scorpion in the 2006 Breeders Cup Turf, English Channel moves down on the "depth chart."  It will be very difficult to pull off a front-running victory successfully in the Turf.  A mile and one-half is too long a distance to win it gate-to-wire, but English Channel still has a chance if he can be "throttled" for most of the going and have something left for the cavalry charge.  Better Talk Now, winner of the 2004 Turf at Lone Star Park, is an outsider particularly with the European entries.  Better Talk Now has continually failed against the likes of Cacique, English Channel, and The Tin Man, and the odds are stacked against him being able to turn the tables today.  Better Talk Now is a limited possibility for the exotics, though, as he prefers the long 1 1/2 mile distance.  Go Deputy is a last minute entry to the Turf, entered by Todd Pletcher (on twelve days rest) probably in anticipation of European defections.  A very serviceable grass runner, Go Deputy recently finished second (by a nose) in the Canadian International, and also finished second (to Cacique) in the Manowar in September.  Go Deputy is a tepid contender in the Turf.  West coast turf specialist T.H. Approval has hit his best stride lately and he is a complicating factor in the Turf but not a serious threat.  His ability to run close to the pace or to take back off the pace affords him tractability, but in deep stretch T.C. Approval will run into serious problems today.  Sure to be a long price is the Irish bred Silverfoot, sixth place finisher (by nine lengths) in the 2005 B.C. Turf, and this journeyman grass specialist is best used on trifecta and superfecta tickets (should not threaten to win).  Locally based Rush Bay won the Opening Wish (here at Churchill) in the June but has only an outside chance in the B.C. Turf.

Breeders Cup Classic

Synopsis  Churchill Downs Race 10

The 2006 edition of the Breeders Cup Classic is a classic in the truest sense of the term, playing host to three of the four top rated horses in the world:  Lava Man (best handicap horse on the west coast), Bernardini (best handicap horse in the entire U.S.), and George Washington (European grass champion trying the dirt for the first time).  The Classic also features grass specialist David Junior, winner the of $5 million Dubai Duty Free in March of this year, and the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Newmarket) in 2005.  The 1 1/4 mile distance over the Churchill Downs main course is reminiscent of this year's Kentucky Derby (won by Barbaro).  And although the cast of characters has changed, the strategy of the riders has not.  The winner will need to stay in contact with the leaders and begin to surge at the one mile point in the race.  Kiaran McLaughlin enters Invasor, an Argentinian-bred who burst on the scene this year with three eye-opening wins in four starts, his only loss a career debut (fourth) against Discreet Cat at Nad Al Sheba.  The pedigree of Invasor is sprinkled with grass breeding and I believe that is where the future lies for the talented colt.  In the meantime, he should run a good Classic but will probably not offer value.  The sensational grass specialist David Junior is ostensibly bred to run on grass and despite his sterling record (seven wins in twelve starts) I expect he may digress in his dirt debut.  In the biggest upset in Breeders Cup history, the French-bred grass runner Arcangues won the Classic in 1993 at odds of 133-1, but he did so against a suspect classic field, and that is simply not the case in 2006.  Lava Man, handled by Doug O'Neil, is the best handicap horse in California, and this son of Slew City Slew is peaking at the right moment.  Lava Man has the ability to run well on either dirt or grass, and O'Neil brushed a master stroke by entering Lava Man in the Charles Whittingham Stakes (on grass) in the summer.  Lava Man won with a brilliant performance, and the surface change kept him fresh and the result is Lava Man is in peak form for the Classic.  On the down side, Lava Man has not performed all that well outside the confines of the state of California, and that could be a concern today in Louisville.  We all knew Bernardini was something special on that fateful day in May when Barbaro was seriously injured in the Preakness, but Bernardini went on to a dominating win. Bernardini is the early favorite for the Classic, and his recent performances have earned him favoritism.  Racing for Darley Stable, and trained by Thomas Albertrani, this son of A.P. Indy has been simply lights out.  When he left Bluegrass Cat for dead at the top of the stretch in the Travers (Saratoga), Bernardini stamped himself early favorite for Horse of the Year as well.  With six dominating wins in seven starts, there's little not to like.  O.K., naysayers, he's merely a 3-year-old, and that's a strike against him.  Also, he will be facing the toughest field of his brief career.  Dan Hendricks saddles Brother Derek, once the hottest item in California.  Having been humbled by Bernardini in the Preakness, and exposed in the process, Brother Derek rebounded to finish second (behind Lava Man) in the Goodwood at Santa Anita.  Brother Derek should not be ignored, and he may offer wagering value, but he will need the performance of a lifetime to win the 2006 Classic.  Todd Pletcher saddles Flower Alley, a professional handicap horse but probably outclassed today.  With Mr. Prospector on both sides of his pedigree, Flower Alley will be limited by the 1 1/4 distance and the high level of competition.  Flower Alley has raced well in the east, though, and he has Pletcher in his corner.  Perfect Drift finished third (behind Saint Liam and Flower Alley) in last year's Breeders Cup Classic, and he is a true road warrior, but his best racing days are behind him, leaving him with little chance to win but he is a possible in the exotics (on sheer determination).  Long shot 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo is a mild danger from off the pace, but he needs a career best performance and help from a very fast pace in order to win.  Giacomo will retired to stud after the Classic.  Edgar Prado is scheduled to ride Woodward Stakes winner Premium Tap.  The son of Pleasant Tap is a serviceable handicap horse (trained by John Kimmel) with a front running style that may hinder his chances in the Classic.  Sun King (trained by Nick Zito) is best at a mile, and even at a mile he probably doesn't rank with the best in here.  Super Frolic sometimes runs out of his shoes, and he will need to in order to make an impact.  The (3-year-old) European champion miler George Washington is entered for the Classic, in an eyebrow-raising move by the connections (trainer Aiden O'Brien).  A multiple Group 1 winner on grass in Europe, including the Irish 2000 Guineas this year, George Washington has never run out of the money, and he has also never raced on dirt, until today.  The sire Danehill is a prime source of grass aptitude, although the dam sire Alysheba may inject some dirt aptitude.  Still it is a huge gamble to switch surfaces from grass, where George Washington is one of the best in the world, to dirt, where he is untested.  After watching Lawyer Ron lose to Strong Contender in the Super Derby on the speed favoring Louisiana Downs course, I am convinced Lawyer Ron is not Breeders Cup Classic winning material.  Lawyer Ron (recently turned over to Pletcher) can be scary fast for intervals, but probably not for a grueling mile and a half at Louisville.