Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Patented Computer Analysis For
The 2005
Belmont Stakes
|
Belmont
137th Belmont Stakes 1 1/2 miles
Purse $1,000,000 Added |
|
Pgm# |
Horse |
Track ML |
Computer ML |
Horse-Race-Handicapping Comment |
Computer Score |
Computer Rank |
|
1 |
NOLAN'S CAT |
50-1 |
16-1 |
Cannot Win
But Tries |
79 |
10 |
|
2 |
PINPOINT |
20-1 |
12-1 |
Will Nurse
Speed |
88 |
6 |
|
3 |
A.P.
ARROW |
20-1 |
12-1 |
A Superfecta Must |
89 |
5 |
|
4 |
SOUTHERN AFRICA |
12-1 |
8-1 |
Will Be
Prominent Today |
99 |
3 |
|
5 |
GIACOMO |
4-1 |
14-1 |
Slow Pace Hurts Him |
87 |
7 |
|
6 |
WATCHMON |
50-1 |
21-1 |
No Hope To
Win |
67 |
11 |
|
7 |
ANDROMEDA'S HERO |
15-1 |
9-2 |
Bred To Run
All Day |
105 |
2 |
|
8 |
REVERBERATE |
6-1 |
10-1 |
Major Factor
In Outcome |
98 |
4 |
|
9 |
AFLEET ALEX |
6-5 |
5-2 |
Best Of
His Generation? |
114 |
1 |
|
10 |
INDY
STORM |
20-1 |
15-1 |
Only A
Second Stringer |
83 |
8 |
|
11 |
CHEKHOV |
12-1 |
15-1 |
Has A Future
But Not Today |
83 |
9 |
|
www.Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Picks:
9 - 7 - 4 - 8 |
What should jump out
at you is the tremendous overlay on Andromeda's Hero. I doubt you'll
get the Track ML odds of 15-1 on him, but who cares. We at
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com
have determined the correct odds (the Computer ML) for
Andromeda's Hero are 9-2. We have him picked second behind Afleet
Alex, and we suggest big exacta boxes between these two horses (#7 and #9
in your program) but we put up a red flag on betting Afleet Alex to win.
Don't do it! We rate him at 5-2 and he will surely go off at even
money or less. Even if he wins, it's like kissing your sister.
Your win bets need to be on Andromeda's Hero or possibly Southern Africa.
As for your exacta, trifecta, superfecta, and Pick-4
bets, Afleet Alex is a must in those bets. Do not forget he is rated
by Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com
as the probable winner. There is no value in betting him to win,
though.
Southern Africa Track ML odds are over Computer ML
odds, and this offers
us some value. The true value lies with Andromeda's
Hero. There is "exotics" value on almost all the long shots because Afleet Alex is so undervalued. Nolan's Cat (#1), Pinpoint (#2), A.P.
Arrow (#3), Watchmon (#6), Andromeda's Hero (#7), and Indy Storm (#10) are
all high-priced horses with great value in the exotics. That means
that although they do not have a great chance to win, they have a
tremendous chance to invade the exactas, trifectas, and superfectas (see
the Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com $100
Bankroll plays). The worst valued horse in
the race is Giacomo. We have detected a probable sluggish pace in
the 2005 edition of the Belmont, and that is pure poison for a true closer
like Giacomo. Computer ML odds are 14-1 compared to Track ML odds of
4-1. You must understand that although there is no value on Giacomo,
he is still rated 7th in the field of 11 by
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com.
The implication is that he should probably be included in
your trifectas and superfectas.
OK, everybody, here it is, the
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com $100 Bankroll plays.
Picks:
Afleet Alex (9) -
Andromeda's Hero (7) -
Southern Africa (4) -
Reverberate (8)
2005 Belmont Stakes
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Hits It Big!
$100 Bankroll
Plays Returns $1,064.50.
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com
$100 Bankroll Plays:
$1 Trifecta Picks:
9 / 7 with
9 / 7 /
4
/ 8 with ALL ($54)
$1 Trifecta (9-7-1) Paid $624.50
$20 Exacta
Box
9 with 7 ($40)
$20 Exacta (9-7) Paid $440.00
$1
Superfecta Picks:
9 / 7 with 9 / 7 with 4 with 8 / 3 / 2 ($6)
2005 Belmont Stakes Review
Afleet Alex, a son of Northern Afleet, did his best imitation of a
speeding locomotive to claim the third and final leg of the Triple Crown,
the Belmont Stakes, as
the betting favorite. Afleet
Alex is owned by the Cash Is King limited partnership headed by Chuck Zacney, and trained by Delaware native Tim Ritchey. Jeremy Rose is
the winning rider. As we anticipated, Andromeda's Hero saved
face for Nick Zito by rallying strongly for the place. Giacomo,
again as we predicted, was badly compromised by the pace and tired badly in the stretch,
failing to hit
the board.
Results and Payoffs:
| 11th Race,
Next Post 7:17 |
Off: 6:34 |
|
| 1 1/2 Miles. 3 Year Olds
Stakes Purse: $1,000,000 |
|
# |
Horse |
Jockey |
Weight |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
9 |
Afleet Alex |
Rose J |
126 |
4.30 |
3.60 |
3.00 |
|
7 |
Andromeda's Hero |
Bejarano R |
126 |
|
8.20 |
5.80 |
|
1 |
Nolan's Cat |
Arroyo N Jr |
126 |
|
|
7.20 |
| |
Times in 5ths: |
:242 |
:483 |
1:124 |
1:38 |
2:283 |
| |
Times in 100ths: |
:24.47 |
:48.62 |
1:12.92 |
1:38.05 |
2:28.75 |
|
| Also ran: Indy Storm, A.
P. Arrow, Chekhov, Giacomo, Southern Africa, Watchmon,
Reverberate and Pinpoint |
| Winning Trainer: Ritchey
Tim F - Owner: Cash is King LLC |
| $2 Exacta (9-7) Paid
$44.00 |
| $2 Trifecta (9-7-1)
Paid $1,249.00 |
$2 Superfecta
(9-7-1-10) Paid $14,219.00
|
For those math wizards out there, here is a visual tool which
illustrates how close the 2005 Belmont combatants were rated by the
Racing Attribute Computer Evaluation (R.A.C.E.)
program developed by the founder of Horse-Race-Handicapping.com,
Jim Lambert.
For the
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Home Page click here.
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