The Preakness Stakes is run Saturday, May 19, 2007.  Street Sense will try to extend his Triple Crown hopes by completing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness double.  Hard Spun will try to turn the tables on Street Sense, and newcomers like Xchanger and Flying First Class come into the Preakness fresh and ready to steal the spotlight from Street Sense and Hard Spun.  And let's not forget the phenom Curlin, who will take some beating in the Preakness.

The Kentucky Derby is over now, and it's time to take a look at the Preakness contenders.

The 2007 Preakness Contenders

The 132nd Preakness Stakes boasts a very strong contingent.  Let's look at the top contenders, not in any particular order.

Circular Quay

Somewhere along the way, Circular Quay (also trained by Todd Pletcher) became more of a championship threat than his stable mate Scat Daddy.  Including the Kentucky Derby, they have traded punches three times now, with Circular Quay defeating Scat Daddy all three times, most notably in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where 'Quay' fought the rail bias at Churchill to finish a strong second (10 lengths back of Street Sense) and Scat Daddy ran 4th, 5 lengths back of Circular Quay. And when 'Quay' rapidly ate up ground to capture the Louisiana Derby on the speed favoring Fair Grounds race course, Todd Pletcher was convinced that 'Quay' was his best shot at a Derby victory for 2007. Pletcher's decision to rest 'Quay' for the 8 weeks (actually 57 days) leading up to the Derby was an attempt to bring Circular Quay in very fresh. The brief freshening probably is not the cause of Circular Quay's lackluster sixth place finish in the Derby.  His style is to lay back and make one big ferocious run, and Pletcher knew that he would be able to do that just fine with an 8 week rest. It just didn't work out as planned in the Kentucky Derby.  The only drawback on Circular Quay is that he has not yet registered a superior speed figure. His Kentucky Derby performance was a respectable performance, but not a championship performance.  He passed twelve horses from the three-quarters mark to the finish, but he was still beaten by more than nine lengths by Street Sense, and he finished behind two also-rans, Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield.  Does that lower his Preakness expectations? Maybe, maybe not. But with 4 wins in 8 overall starts, Circular Quay is beginning to show some chinks in the armor.  But 'Quay' is good enough to figure in the outcome of the Preakness, and we leave him out at our peril.

Curlin

Curlin is no longer perfect, but he is not that far from it.  With a maiden allowance romp at Gulfstream (by 12 3/4 lengths), and back-to-back impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby (both at Oaklawn Park), and a troubled third in the Kentucky Derby, Curlin may just be the horse of the moment. Smarty Jones traveled the road of the Rebel and Arkansas Derby on his way to wins in Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2004, but Curlin could manage only a third in the Derby.  There is a major difference between the careers of Smarty Jones and Curlin. Like most Kentucky Derby winners, Smarty Jones raced as a 2-year-old, and in fact had a perfect 8-for-8 lifetime record leading up to the 2004 Derby. Curlin did not race as a 2-year-old. Horses that that don't race as 2-year-olds simply don't win the Derby. Apollo was the last to do it, in 1882. You remember, don't you? Well, maybe not.  And Curlin had only 3 lifetime starts prior to the Derby. The last horse to win the Derby with only 3 starts was the filly Regret in 1915. The 3 race deal doesn't mean much these days, because the trend for Derby winners is to be lightly raced as a whole. Street Sense had seven races entering the Kentucky Derby.  And as for the lack of any races as a 2-year-old, I feel that means a little, but it doesn't mean a lot. I know that's a wishy-washy way to put it. Curlin may be a superstar, and he may not be. Now that he has four races, and his speed figures are at the top (but not really better than the other top Preakness contenders), we don't know if he can separate himself from the others in the Preakness. But we do know a few things. Curlin handled Oaklawn Park easily, a very fair and unbiased course. Of the last three Arkansas Derby winners (Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones), two (Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones) won multiple Triple Crown races. Also, Curlin's splits and his closing times, and his breeding, all point to "no bounces here." So Curlin is going to be there at the finish, particularly with the experience gained from the Kentucky Derby.  And if Curlin bounces back, and signs are he probably will, look out in the Preakness!

Hard Spun

Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths but then disappointed in the Southwest as the 1-to-2 favorite. Breaking from the outside post in the Southwest, Hard Spun raced wide the entire going and ended up fourth beaten three lengths by the talented Teuflesberg. Considering the level of competition in the Southwest, and the brilliant effort by Teuflesberg, Hard Spun remained firmly in the Kentucky Derby picture. And he remained front and center with his powerful runner-up performance to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby. Hard Spun, a Pennsylvania-bred like Smarty Jones, has been handled beautifully by Larry Jones. The Lane's End was Hard Spun's final prep, and the forgiving Polytrack surface probably helped keep Hard Spun ready for the grueling Derby, and now the Preakness.  Street Sense followed the same Polytrack to Derby angle as did Hard Spun, using the Blue Grass (Keeneland) as his final Derby prep.  Hard Spun now has 5 wins in 7 starts, all on dirt except for the Lane's End (at Turfway Park), and one of his two losses is a brilliant second in the Kentucky Derby. His speed figures are in the same neighborhood of the other top contenders. And he is being handled in an expert fashion. And no doubt Hard Spun will be cutting the sharp corners of the Preakness turns.  Hard Spun will be a legitimate threat to take the Preakness.

Street Sense

Street Sense is the first horse to win the "daily double" of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby.  How good is he?  Very, very good.  With his Derby victory, Street Sense now has 4 wins in 8 overall starts, and all four wins are on fast dirt surfaces, and his connections will hope for sunny skies at Pimlico (Baltimore, Maryland) on Preakness day.  Should we take a stand against him in the Preakness?  Yes.  Why? 

Here are some good reasons:

1.  Street Sense will be over bet after his Derby victory.  He was the best on Derby day, but he enjoyed a ground saving rail trip and everything broke right for him.  Curlin got tangled up in traffic and that won't happen in the Preakness.  Street Sense will not offer betting value as the favorite.

2.  Two inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs Friday, one day before the Kentucky Derby, and another inch had fallen earlier on Thursday.  Track management sealed the track as early as Friday, and by late Saturday afternoon the main track was labeled fast.  But was it really fast?  Yes, and no.  Yes, there was no standing water, and the winning time of 2:02.17 is respectable as far as Derby winning times go, but not spectacular.  The lowly Giacomo clocked in at 2:02.75 in 2005.  But no, this was not a typical fast track because of all the sealant composition placed over the track.  These conditions are eerily similar to the conditions under which Street Sense won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile in November, 2006.  Street Sense is top shelf, no doubt about it, but he might have won both ends of the Juvenile/Derby double on biased race tracks. 

3.  The Preakness distance of 1 and 3/16 miles is 5% shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 and 1/4 miles.  This may not be critical in and of itself, but the layout and composition of the Pimlico main track serves front runners and close-up stalkers very well.  Combine this tendency with the shorter distance and you've got a recipe for a potential upset of a closer like Street Sense.  A lot of scenarios could defeat him.  Another closer (Curlin, Circular Quay) could do a better job of timing a winning move.  Or a close-up stalker like Hard Spun could hold off the deep closers.    

We will definitely use Street Sense but we will try to beat him on top.
__________________________________________

Now that we've looked at the top contenders, how about some value alternatives?

C P West

Nick Zito had high hopes early on for the $425,000 Came Home colt, and everything looked rosy after a strong second to King Of the Roxy in the Futurity (Belmont) for 2-year-olds in September, 2006.  But after a sixth place finish (beaten over 20 lengths by Street Sense) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile two months later, Zito regrouped and kept C P West on the sidelines until March 31, 2007.   He entered C P West in a first level allowance at Gulfstream Park after nearly five months off, and the talented colt responded with a fast closing second.  Next up was the grade 3 Withers (Aqueduct) and C P West again closed for second.  With only five overall starts, C P West has plenty of up-side, and the colt makes good sense as a long shot.  C P West offers good value for trainer Nick Zito.

Flying First Class

The Derby Trial (run at Churchill Downs April 28) is no longer a graded stakes, but it still a high quality race, and Flying First Class dominated the 2007 edition with ease.  He wired a tough field by setting fractions of 44.16 for the half and 108.67 for three-quarters on his way to 129.28 for the seven and one-half panels.  He will probably carry that speed from Churchill Downs to Pimlico, and that makes him a concern for the other speedsters in the Preakness.  The Derby Trial was the fifth race for Flying First Class, and the prior two were the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, both won convincingly by Curlin.  Flying First Class held his own in both of those graded stakes until about the eighth pole, where Curlin really turned it on.  Flying First Class ended up 8th and 6th, respectively, in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.  The problem for Flying First Class is the overall strength of the Preakness field, but we don't discount his talent, or his trainer D Wayne Lukas.
__________________________________________

Now that we've looked at the top contenders and value alternatives, let's look at some possible surprises.

King Of The Roxy

Not entering 'Roxy' in the Derby was a wise decision by Todd Pletcher, who passed on the Derby even though King Of The Roxy had the necessary earnings to qualify. 'Roxy' managed a pretty nice second (to Tiago) in the Santa Anita Derby, but his stride was wavering badly at the finish. My notes after the race: 'Roxy' broke away from Liquidity and Sam P. but looked tired and his stride began to shorten noticeably. That was the cue for Tiago to rush past 'Roxy' for a 1/2 length victory at odds of 29-to-1. 'Roxy' would have been a major surprise in the Derby, and I am of the opinion that other colts like Curlin and Hard Spun are already much better than King Of The Roxy.

Xchanger

In an article covering the Lexington Stakes and long shot winner Slew's Tizzy, I noted that the "fleet of foot" Xchanger (winner of the non-graded Tesio Stakes at Pimlico) would have a better chance than Slew's Tizzy to do well in the Kentucky Derby. I still feel that way even though Xchanger skipped the Derby to get ready for the Preakness.  Xchanger has experienced more success on dirt than Slew's Tizzy and the other "Polytrack wonders."  Does this mean I am endorsing Xchanger to win the Preakness? No, it does not. Although Xchanger won the 1 1/8 mile Tesio Stakes (Pimlico) by a wide 8 length margin, he closed out the final three furlongs in a rather common 39.14 seconds (about 13 seconds per furlong) on his way to a final time of 1:49.98. Pimlico is certainly a speed favoring track, and Xchanger will have an easier time nursing his speed than he would have had in the Kentucky Derby.  Still, with eight races already in the books, there is little we haven't already seen from Xchanger, and anything better than a third or fourth place finish in the Preakness would be a big surprise. 
__________________________________________

How about the rest of the field?

Mint Slewlep

Both of Mint Slewlep's victories were staged at Laurel (Maryland), just down the road from Pimlico, the site of the Preakness.  Those two races were a maiden allowance and a first level allowance, but the problem is the five losses that go with the two wins.  Most recently Mint Slewlep ran fourth in the Withers (Aqueduct) against a less than stellar field.  The Slew City Slew colt managed a fifth in a field of nine in the grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct (won by Cowtown Cat).  Mint Slewlep with his 2 wins in 7 starts looks overmatched in the Preakness.

For the Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Home Page  click here.

Click Here To Return To Preakness Home Page  
 
 

Copyright 2007
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com