Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Contender Profiles For
The 2007
Belmont
CLICK ON A HORSE
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
C P WEST
SLEW'S TIZZY
TIAGO
RAGS TO RICHES
HARD SPUN
CURLIN
STREET SENSE [WITHDRAWN]
The Belmont Stakes is run Saturday, June 9, 2007.
Curlin will try to extend his brilliant Preakness form to the
grueling 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont classic. The connections of
Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense withdrew him from consideration for the
Belmont, so Street Sense will not be able to seek
retribution for the heartbreaking loss to the Curlin in the Preakness. Hard Spun will try to
slow the pace enough to turn the
tables on the deep closers Curlin, Tiago, and Imawildandcrazyguy. Slew's Tizzy is a critical pace
presence. Without his presence the deep closers would be in deep
trouble. And the flashy Todd Pletcher filly Rags To Riches takes the
audacious step to enter the ring against the best of the boys.
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness are over now, and it's time to take a look at the
Belmont contenders. The Belmont is the only one of the three Triple
Crown classics that is run at the unusual 1 and 1/2 mile distance.
For most if not all in today's field, this will be the one and only time
in their life they will be asked to go this long. And because of the
classic 1 and 1/2 mile distance, the Belmont is the only Triple Crown race
where pedigree and long distance aptitude has a direct result on the
running of the race. That's why the Belmont is referred to as the
"Test of Champions."
The 2007 Belmont Contenders
The 139th Belmont Stakes boasts a very strong contingent of deep closers
and stalkers,
and a sprinkling of front runners. This is going to be a chess match
among the riders. Let's look at all the contenders, not in
any particular order.
Rags To Riches
Rags To Riches is the absolute Queen of her division (3-year-old
fillies). She toyed with the best in her division in the Grade 1
Kentucky Oaks (the distaff companion to the Kentucky Derby). In the
1 1/8 mile Oaks she started from the 11th post (in a field of 14) and won
under hand urging against the likes of Dreaming Of Anna, Octave, Mistical
Plan, High Heels, and Cotton Blossom to name a few. Two months earlier she dismantled the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks field. How good is Rags
To Riches? Let's put it this way: Rags To Riches is way ahead of the
best 3-year-old fillies, and she is a little behind the best 3-year-old
colts. What about pedigree? It is outstanding, and no doubt
played a big part in Todd Pletcher's decision to run her in the Belmont. Rags To Riches has A P Indy (a
son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew) as sire. In 1992, A P Indy won
both the Belmont Stakes and the Breeder's Cup Classic. There are heavy doses
of the classic sires Bold Ruler and Turn-To in the bloodlines of A P Indy,
and this makes Rags To Riches a true blue blood. On the dam side, her
broodmare Better Than Honour is out of the mare Blushing With Pride. This
is the identical maternal pedigree of 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, and further
solidifies an already stellar pedigree for Rags To Riches. What about the
Belmont? A P Indy, the sire of Rags To Riches, won the 1992 Belmont,
but A P Indy was a colt, and Rags To Riches is a filly. The quality
of the 2007 Belmont field, being the only filly in the field, and the grueling 1
and 1/2 mile distance all work against Rags To Riches. She is so
good, though, very good, and she has a legitimate chance to hit the board. But she
will not beat Curlin, so she will not win.
Hard Spun
Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths, but then
he lost in the Southwest (at Oaklawn Park) as the 1-to-2 favorite. He
bounced back to easily win the Lane's End (on Polytrack) at Turfway
and, as we all know, ran the race of his life to finish 2nd to Street
Sense in the Kentucky Derby. Hard Spun came back down to earth in the Preakness,
but still ran a very respectable 3rd under difficult circumstances.
He had little choice but to run into the teeth of a suicidal pace, and then had to deal with
the intimidating late moves of Curlin and Street Sense. Hard Spun
held on for a third place finish in the Preakness, beaten only 4 1/2
lengths, in perhaps the fastest Preakness in history. Now Hard Spun
is ready to try his luck in the Belmont Stakes. Hard Spun must
somehow nurse his brilliant speed for the entire 1 and 1/2 miles of the
Belmont. There will no speed bias or sharp turns to aid him, either.
Hard Spun is sired by
the top stallion Danzig, who died in 2006 at the age of 29. Danzig sired 107 graded stakes winners in his lifetime. The sire of Danzig is Northern Dancer, the 1964 Kentucky
Derby and Preakness winner. Northern Dancer was
small for a champion, standing at only 14 hands 2 1/2
inches, but he defeated his competitors with brilliant
speed and a big heart. About 75% of modern
thoroughbreds can be traced back to Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer, the sire of champions, died in 1990. Turkish Tryst is Hard Spun's dam. Turkish Tryst ,
a daughter of Turkoman, injects great stamina into the
pedigree of Hard Spun. However, being a grandson of
Northern Dancer is not necessarily an advantage in the Belmont. Danzig is out of the mare Pas De Nom, primarily a pure speed influence,
and this further restricts Hard Spun at the classic distances. Pace
will be a critical factor in determining Hard Spun's chances in the
Belmont. The presence of Slew's Tizzy and Rags To Riches will be complicating factors
for Hard Spun, and so will the 1 and 1/2 mile distance. Hard Spun
enters the third and final installment of the 2007 Triple Crown already
having worked incredibly hard. He will need a slow pace, and he
might not get it. An aside,
owner Rick Porter is close to finalizing a deal that will assign the
breeding rights of Hard Spun to Darley Stable, which recently acquired the
rights to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.
Street Sense [WITHDRAWN From
Consideration]
Extra! Extra! Street Sense is sold. It was announced
Saturday, June 2, 2007 that breeding rights to the Breeders Cup 2006 and
Kentucky Derby 2007 champion Street Sense were sold to Darley Stud of
Sheikh Mohammed of the famed Maktoum family
of Dubai. Street Sense will continue to run in the name of previous
owner Jim Tafel through October 27, 2007, the day of the Breeders Cup
Classic at Monmouth Park (New Jersey), and Carl Nafzger will continue to
train the Derby champ during that period. The parents of Street
Sense, sire Street Cry and dam Bedazzle, are already owned by Sheikh
Mohammed. For an extensive piece on the racing Maktoums of Dubai,
refer to my new e-book
Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer.
Street Sense is the first horse to win the "daily double" of the Breeder's
Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. How good is he? Very, very good.
However, I went out on a limb and predicted he would fall to Curlin in the
Preakness. I didn't say by how much (Ha!). Here is a recap of
the reasons I used to justify taking a stand against Street Sense in the
Preakness:
1. Street Sense will be over bet after his Derby victory. He
was the best on Derby day, but he enjoyed a ground saving rail trip and
everything broke right for him. Curlin got tangled up in traffic and
that won't happen in the Preakness. Street Sense will not offer
betting value as the favorite.
2. Two inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs Friday, one day before
the Kentucky Derby, and another inch had fallen earlier on Thursday.
Track management sealed the track as early as Friday, and by late Saturday
afternoon the main track was labeled fast. But was it really fast?
Yes, and no. Yes, there was no standing water, and the winning time
of 2:02.17 is respectable as far as Derby winning times go, but not
spectacular. The lowly Giacomo clocked in at 2:02.75 in 2005. But no, this
was not a typical fast track because of all the sealant composition placed
over the track. These conditions are eerily similar to the
conditions under which Street Sense won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile in
November, 2006. Street Sense is top shelf, no doubt about it, but he
might have won both ends of the Juvenile/Derby double on biased race
tracks.
3. The Preakness distance of 1 and 3/16 miles is 5% shorter than the
Kentucky Derby distance of 1 and 1/4 miles. This may not be critical
in and of itself, but the layout and composition of the Pimlico main track
serves front runners and close-up stalkers very well. Combine this tendency with the
shorter distance and you've got a recipe for a potential upset of a closer like
Street Sense. A lot of scenarios could defeat him. Another
closer (Curlin, Circular Quay) could do a better job of timing a winning move. Or
a close-up stalker like Hard Spun could hold off the deep closers.
What if Street Sense had run in the Belmont? With his Derby victory
and Preakness second, Street Sense now has 4 wins in 9 overall starts,
with all four wins on fast dirt surfaces. His pedigree is quite
strong.
Street Sense is a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin
property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury
and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby.
Street Sense is a paternal great-grandson of Mr. Prospector and a maternal
great-grandson of Northern Dancer. This is the combination that I
generally do not like for the Belmont because of the long one and one-half
mile distance. However, other influences such as Ribot and Riverman
help temper the speed aptitude and inject a more classic profile.
Street Cry, the sire of Street Sense, was a world champion caliber router
at the 2000 meter distance (a tad longer than 1 1/8 miles). The
Belmont is a full one-third longer than 1 1/8 miles, though, and that is
where a classic pedigree comes in. The pedigree of Street Sense fits
in nicely with all the other serious Belmont contenders, including Curlin,
Rags to Riches, Tiago, and Hard Spun. Would Street Sense have defeated Curlin in the
Belmont? Maybe, maybe not. Which of the two has the best
classic pedigree? Street Sense by a nose, but races are won on the track, not
on paper.
C P West
Nick Zito had high hopes early on for the $425,000 Came Home colt, and everything
looked rosy after a strong second to King Of the Roxy in the Futurity
(Belmont) in September, 2006. But after a sixth place finish (beaten
over 20 lengths by Street Sense) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile two months
later, Came Home came out of the race with sore ankles. Zito regrouped and kept C P West on the sidelines until March 31,
2007, when he entered C P West in a first level allowance at Gulfstream Park after nearly five months off, and the talented colt
responded with a fast closing second. Next up was the grade 3
Withers (Aqueduct) and C P West again closed for second. With only
five overall starts at the time, C P West had plenty of up-side going into the Preakness.
C P West's 4th place finish (behind Curlin,
Street Sense, and Hard Spun) in the Preakness was outstanding considering he
stalked a brutal pace almost from the outset. The Preakness performance was
easily the best for C P West to date . He is running like a fresh horse, and
we know he is a
talented horse, and C P West is a big threat to hit the board in the Belmont. The pace
will directly influence C P West's chances in the Belmont. If Hard Spun,
Slew's Tizzy, and Rags To Riches set a fast pace, then C P West is
going to be in trouble. But Hard Spun may be restrained early by new rider
Garrett Gomez (replaces Mario Pino) and this could really open things up
for C P West. Personally, I feel the pace will be moderate to a little
faster than moderate. This probably leaves C P West with a pretty good
chance to hit the board, but odds are against him to win outright. What
about pedigree? The sire of C P West is Came Home, a son of Mr. Prospector. Came Home was a
top quality handicap horse with no less than six graded stakes victories as
a 3-year-old in 2002, including the Swaps Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, and
Affirmed Handicap. That was also the year long shot War Emblem (Bob Baffert) wired a Kentucky Derby field that included Came Home. Came Home
finished 6th in the Derby, closing from 14th early on to get as close as 4th in the
stretch. Came Home did not participate in the 2002 Belmont. C P West's dam
is Queen's Legend, a daughter of the versatile Dynaformer, and this
strengthens C P West's aptitude for the classic distances. Dynaformer was
one of the few sons of Roberto who performed exceptionally well on dirt (Roberto was almost
exclusively a
superior turf stallion). Dynaformer routinely performed well in stakes
races run at the
classic distances.
Tiago
I didn't list Tiago among the top contenders in the Kentucky Derby, but it was a close call. Of
the two "one run" threats in the Derby, Circular Quay had the best resume,
and as it turned out Tiago finished 7th (less than a length to the worse
of Circular Quay's 6th). Tiago was a surprise winner in the Santa Anita Derby at odds of 29-to-1. My observations just
after the Santa Anita Derby: "The second longest price on the board, Tiago
($60.60), stormed home on the rail to overtake runner-up King of the Roxy
in a thrilling upset in the 1 1/8 mile grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. At the
midpoint of the race, Black Seventeen, Liquidity, Sam P., and King of the
Roxy raced within 1 1/2 lengths of each other, while Tiago (ridden by Mike
Smith) languished some 12 lengths back of the front runners. When the real
running began in upper stretch, King of the Roxy, Liquidity, and Sam P.
all threatened for the lead, while Tiago angled toward the rail, all the
time gaining momentum. As the stretch run ensued, King of the Roxy broke
away from Liquidity and Sam P. but looked tired and his stride began to
shorten noticeably. That was the cue for Tiago to rush past 'Roxy' for a
1/2 length
victory at odds of 29-to-1." John Shirreffs trains Tiago, as he did Tiago's
half-brother Giacomo (winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby). The winning time
for the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby was 1:49.51. Just how impressive was
Tiago's victory? I always look at the last three furlongs, the crunch time
of any route of ground. Tiago was 6 lengths (and change) back of the
leader Black Seventeen at the 6 furlong marker, and the 6 furlong fraction
was 1:11 and 2/5. Tiago clocked in at 1:49 and 2/5 for the 1 1/8 miles of
the Santa Anita Derby. That puts him at about 36 and 4/5 for the last
three furlongs (about 12 and 1/5 per furlong). That's a good effort at
Santa Anita, maybe not a great effort, but certainly a very good effort.
That sums up the way I feel about Tiago, very good but not great.
That's the way I feel about his Derby effort as well, very good but not
great. What about pedigree?
Tiago is sired by
Pleasant Tap, a son of Pleasant Colony. Pleasant Tap is a
multiple graded stakes winner who loved Churchill Downs,
Santa Anita, and Belmont Park. Pleasant Tap won the
1992 Suburban (Belmont) at a distance of 1 1/4 miles. This is a good omen for his son Tiago. Pleasant Colony, sire of
Pleasant Tap, won two jewels of the Triple Crown in 1981
(Kentucky Derby and Preakness). Pleasant Colony ran 3rd in the 1981 Belmont.
Another grandson of Pleasant Colony did well in a Derby prep
this year, as Sightseeing ran 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood
Memorial. Tiago is actually better suited (by pedigree) to
classic distances than his half-brother Giacomo. They are both out
of the mare Set Them Free, but Tiago is by the sire Pleasant Tap, and
Giacomo is by the sire Tyrant. Advantage Tiago. The Pleasant
Tap line introduces important classic influences Stage Door Johnny and
Ribot. What does all this mean for Tiago? Tiago
has 2 wins in 5 starts. Those 5 starts have put Tiago's strengths on
display, as well as his weaknesses. Tiago is a very effective closer
with a classic leaning pedigree. On the other hand, Tiago's best
speed figure came gift-wrapped with a fast pace and faltering leaders (in
the Santa Anita Derby). I'm in the middle of the road with Tiago's
chances in the Belmont. He must be considered, though, particularly
if the pace heats up, and his up-side cannot be denied. Do I detect
a value play? I think the answer is yes.
Imawildandcrazyguy
Part of being a good turf writer is admitting it when you missed the boat.
Well, everybody, I missed the boat on Imawildandcrazyguy in the Kentucky
Derby, where he exceeded all expectations to finish 4th (in a 20 horse
field). Here is my pre-Derby encapsulation of Imawildandcrazyguy:
"William Kaplan struggled with whether or not to enter Imawildandcrazyguy
in the Derby. His claim to fame is a second place finish in the Risen Star
(at the Fair Grounds), a race influenced by a traffic jam which took
favorite Circular Quay out of contention. His best races other than the
Risen Star
are an allowance optional claiming win and a maiden allowance win.
Imawildandcrazyguy does not really have a classic pedigree, and he
would be a major surprise." I didn't give William Kaplan
enough credit. Imawildandcrazyguy did not finish in the top three
in the Derby, but he finished ahead of several very good horses, including Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Tiago. What is the
outlook for Imawildandcrazyguy in the Belmont? Len Ragozin, and the
other bounce theory proponents, will tell you Imawildandcrazyguy is going
bounce off his Derby performance, which was an undisputed lifetime best.
He has only 2 wins in 12 overall starts, and the wins came in a maiden
special weight and an optional claiming allowance. On the other
hand, Imawildandcrazyguy set up his Derby performance with a respectable
6th (beaten about 6 1/2 lengths) to Scat Daddy in the Grade 1 Florida
Derby. His running style, at least lately, is that of a dead closer,
but I believe this is in part due to racing strategy. Either way it
could be bad news for Imawildandcrazyguy in the Belmont, because the pace
will probably be somewhat subdued, particularly in comparison to the frenzied pace
of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. But if the pace is hot, Imawildandcrazyguy
could very well be in the top three finishers. What about pedigree?
Wild Event, the sire of Imawildandcrazyguy, won the 1997 Grade 2 Arlington
Handicap at 1 1/4 miles, and he won the 1998 Grade 2 W. L. McKnight
Handicap (Calder) at 1 1/2 miles. Wild Event seemed to elevate his
performance above his pedigree to become a nice handicap horse at the
classic distances. The problem with Wild Event's pedigree, and in
turn the pedigree of Imawildandcrazyguy, is too much Nearctic (sire of
Northern Dancer) and Northern Dancer. You don't want a lot of
Nearctic and Northern Dancer in your pedigree if you are entered in the 1
and 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes against Curlin, Tiago, C P West, and Rags To
Riches. On the dam
side, broodmare sire Top Account was graded stakes quality, but only at
distances of one mile or less. With 12 starts in the books now,
we've seen all of Imawildandcrazyguy's tricks by now, and I am inclined to
use him only underneath.
Curlin
Curlin now has a near perfect record of 4 wins in 5 starts, including
three graded stakes victories. With a maiden allowance
romp at Gulfstream (by 12 3/4 lengths), and back-to-back impressive wins
in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby (both at Oaklawn Park), a
troubled third in the Kentucky Derby, and a brilliant Preakness victory
over Street Sense, Curlin is truly the horse of the moment. Smarty Jones traveled the road of the
Rebel and Arkansas Derby on his way to wins in Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2004, but
the Smarty Party never happened after the 2004 Belmont because of a long
shot (trained by Nick Zito) named Birdstone. Zito will another
pricey upset on his mind for the 2007 Belmont named C P West, but more
about him later. Curlin looks a little more bullet proof than
Smarty Jones did, though. Curlin has put to rest all the doubts about
never being raced as a 2-year-old. Curlin has done more in his first
5 starts than most, if not all, thoroughbreds in racing history.
My comments prior to the Derby: "Curlin may be a superstar, and he may not be."
I also stated: "Curlin's
splits and his closing times, and his breeding, all point to no bounces."
Now the whole world can see that Curlin is indeed a superstar. Will
he we win the Belmont? With the defection of Street Sense, Curlin is
certainly my choice to win. Is he a
dead certainty? Not entirely. It would take a
dawdling pace controlled by either Hard Spun or Slew's Tizzy, with C P
West or Hard Spun holding Curlin off in deep
stretch, but chances are slim that will happen with Slew's Tizzy, Hard
Spun, and Rags To Riches all in the
race, and all capable of early speed. Had Street Sense been entered, it would have been a near toss
up between Curlin and Street Sense. The reason is his pedigree.
Curlin's pedigree is
very solid, but there are potential problems with the grueling Belmont
distance.
Curlin is a son of
Smart Strike, who is a son of Mr. Prospector, undeniably
the best Kentucky Derby and Preakness sire in recent times.
Mr. Prospector's
grandson Unbridled won the 1996
Kentucky Derby. Mr. Prospector's great-grandsons
Real Quiet (1998 Kentucky Derby and
Preakness) and Grindstone (1996
Kentucky Derby) won Triple Crown events.
His son Conquistador Cielo won
the 1982
Belmont. Other
descendants
winning Triple Crown events are
Birdstone (2004 Belmont),
Tank’s
Prospect (1985 Preakness), Hansel
(1991 Preakness and Belmont), Timber
Country (1995 Preakness), Victory
Gallop (1998 Belmont), Thunder Gulch
(1995 Derby and Belmont), Point Given
(2001 Preakness and Belmont), Smarty
Jones (2004 Derby and Preakness),
Afleet
Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont),
Editor’s
Note (1996 Belmont), Funny Cide
(2003 Derby and Preakness), War Emblem
(2002 Derby and Preakness), and Fusaichi
Pegasus (2000 Derby). Curlin is
influenced by Deputy Minister (and hence, Northern
Dancer) on the dam side. Curlin has an outstanding
pedigree, but the combination of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer is
generally a neutral indicator for the classic distances. But with no
Street Sense in the race, the road to the Belmont winner's circle goes
through Curlin. And when it comes to betting the Belmont, you better
ask yourself: "Do I really want to bet against Curlin?"
Outside of a few savers, the answer is no.
Slew's Tizzy
The problem with the Polytrack preps like the Lanes' End (Turfway Park),
the Blue Grass (Keeneland), and the Lexington (also Keeneland) is that
horses that run well on Polytrack do not necessarily run well on dirt. And
in 2008 it will get even more complicated because the Santa Anita Derby
and other California preps will be run on artificial surfaces for the
first time. The result is that a subpar dirt performer like Slew's Tizzy
can earn a ticket to the Kentucky Derby (he didn't go) by virtue of winning one of the "Polytrack
preps." And that is exactly what happened in the 2007 Lexington Stakes.
Slew's Tizzy won in the Lexington on Polytrack and paid $83.00 to win. On
a fast dirt surface Slew's Tizzy is 0 for 3 and his best performance is a 7th
place finish in the Louisiana Derby, about 11 and 1/2 lengths shy of the
winner Circular Quay. On the positive side 'Tizzy' has only seven lifetime
starts including his Lone Star Derby win 4 weeks ago, so maybe he is peaking at the right time. But maybe not.
The Lone Star Derby win came on a sloppy track, for which Slew's Tizzy is
ideally bred, and it came against lesser talents than Curlin and company.
Slew's Tizzy is a son of Tiznow, the only horse in history to win
back-to-back Breeder's Cup Classics (2000 and 2001). The 2001
Classic victory came, interestingly enough, at Belmont Park.
Tiznow's winning times for his two Classic wins were very good but not
exceptional, and in each case Tiznow had to fight hard to win, and he
looked like he didn't want to go much further than the 1 and 1/4 mile
Breeder's Cup Classic distance. Slew's Tizzy's is going to be a
forward factor in the Belmont, but the presence of Hard Spun really hurts
his chances. Slew's Tizzy is trained by Greg Fox, a veterinarian
since 1985 and a trainer since February 2005. Slew's Tizzy would
have a pretty good shot to win on a sloppy track, but not at all on a fast
track. And sunny skies are forecast for Belmont day.
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