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THE KENTUCKY DERBY WATCH 2006 Updated May 6 PRIVATE SUBSCRIBER REPORT Click Here For Derby Computer Analysis Click Here For National Handicapping Report The Breeders Cup 2007 Edition With Patented Computer Analysis And Handicapping Commentary For The Entire Breeders Cup Card And $100 BANKROLL Breeders Cup Plays From Horse Race Handicapping.com For Information Click Here Sign Up For Free HRH Racing Digest Click Here CLICK ON A NAME TO VIEW PROFILE (THEN CLICK "BACK" ON YOUR BROWSER TOOLBAR) A. P. WARRIOR ACHILLES OF TROY (withdrawn) BARBARO BLUEGRASS CAT BOB AND JOHN BROTHER DEREK CAUSE TO BELIEVE CORINTHIAN (withdrawn) DEPUTY GLITTERS DISCREET CAT (withdrawn) FIRST SAMURAI (withdrawn) FLASHY BULL JAZIL KEYED ENTRY LAWYER RON LIKE NOW (withdrawn) MISTER TRIESTER (withdrawn) POINT DETERMINED PRIVATE VOW RED RAYMOND (insufficient graded earnings) SEASIDE RETREAT SHARP HUMOR SHOWING UP SINISTER MINISTER STORM TREASURE STRONG CONTENDER (insufficient graded earnings) STEPPENWOLFER STEVIE WONDERBOY (withdrawn) SUNRIVER (insufficient graded earnings) SUPERFLY (withdrawn) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT WITH A CITY (euthanized) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.33. Sweetnorthernsaint is a son of Sweetsouthernsaint, and the sire of Sweetsouthernsaint is Saint Ballado. Saint Ballado is the sire of Sunriver, third place finisher in the Florida Derby, April 1. Saint Ballado is also the sire of 2005 Breeders Cup Classic winner Saint Liam and the champion mare Ashado. Sweetsouthernsaint hails from the sire line of Turn-To. The paternal line of Sweetnorthernsaint includes Halo, the sire of Saint Ballado. Halo is in the category of "Classic" Chef-de-Race, one of North America's finest sires. He contributes a potent blend of speed and stamina to the pedigree of Sweetnorthernsaint . Halo is the sire of classic winners Sunny's Halo and Sunday Silence. The sire of Sweetnorthernsaint's dam Ice Beauty is Waquoit. Waquoit is heavily influenced by excellent grass pedigrees including Relaunch, In Reality, Grey Dawn, Herbager, and Graustark. In 2006, the sons and daughters of Waquoit performed extremely well on dirt surfaces as well. Herbager provides a positive stamina influence on both the maternal and paternal sides of Sweetnorthernsaint. Update 1 The map to the Kentucky Derby that Sweetnorthernsaint is following parallels the journey of his handler, Michael Trombetta. The 39-year-old Trombetta has been training horses for going on twenty years now and he has spent most of those years based in Maryland and Virginia. Not coincidentally, Sweetnorthernsaint made his debut at Colonial Downs in Virginia and moved on to Laurel in Maryland for his next race. Sweetnorthernsaint finished 12th in a field of 14 at Colonial Downs, but all racing at Colonial is on the turf and the race had little meaning for the future of Sweetnorthernsaint. His Laurel race hinted at what was to come, as he won a $40,000 maiden claimer by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his third race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, stopping the watch at 1:09 for the six furlongs. His first stakes was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by an ever widening 10 lengths. Now it was time for a graded stakes, and Trombetta readied his charge for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Here Sweetnorthernsaint faced off with fellow Derby aspirants Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry, but it was a 36 to 1 outsider by the name of Like Now who stole the spotlight from the principals. Sweetnorthernsaint availed himself nicely, though, traveling 3-wide the entire race and persevering to a hard earned third place finish, less than a length beaten by the winner Like Now, and only ½ length shy of runner-up Keyed Entry. No one knew how much the Gotham took out of Sweetnorthernsaint, but three weeks later he climbed back in the ring to take on Cause To Believe and My Golden Song in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, with $500,000 in prize money at stake. Sweetnorthernsaint needed to finish second or better to earn enough to secure a position in the top 20 graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Sweetnorthernsaint cruised to victory in the Illinois Derby, finishing 9 ¼ lengths clear of runner-up and pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe ran third, another length back, and My Golden Song finished a well-beaten seventh. Not only did Sweetnorthernsaint capture the lion's share of the purse money, but he seemed to levitate to another level in the Illinois Derby. Next stop, Louisville. JAZIL Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Jazil is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire of Mr. Prospector is Raise A Native. The sire of Jazil's dam Better Than Honour is Deputy Minister, and the sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Jazil is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Bob And John, Red Raymond, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Jazil is a half-brother to Bob And John, recent winner of the 2006 Wood Memorial. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Northern Dancer represents the sire line of Jazil's damsire Better Than Honour, and Northern Dancer also represents the sire line of Storm Cat, one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico , as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Jazil's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a routine figure and not exceptional. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Jazil's maternal granddam is Blush With Pride, owner of an outstanding Dosage Index of 1.71. Blush With Pride won four graded stakes in her time, including the 1982 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Santa Susana Stakes. The pedigree of Blush With Pride is rich with stamina and provides a formidable balance of stamina and speed to the overall pedigree of Jazil, distinguishing Jazil from his half-brother Bob And John. Update 1 Jazil is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, one time assistant to D. Wayne Lukas, and the U.S. trainer for Darley Stables, the North American arm of Godolphin Stables, Inc. McLaughlin knew he had something special when Jazil closed from 18 lengths off the pace to get within a nose of the winner Steppenwolfer in a seven furlong maiden allowance at Aqueduct in November of 2005. A common refrain began appearing in the comment line of the Daily Racing Form for a Jazil race: "fast finish outside." After the November near miss, Jazil defeated a maiden allowance field, this time at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct in a race transferred to the outer dirt course from the turf. Jazil's next race was four months later, his 2006 debut, back on the dirt again in a first-level allowance route of ground at Gulfstream Park. Jazil faced off with up-and-comers Corinthian and High Blues, racing closer to the pace this time, taking the lead in the stretch, and finishing second after being outfinished by Corinthian. A month later Jazil got his first taste of graded stakes competition in the Fountain of Youth, a prep for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. In the Fountain of Youth, Jazil's late run never materialized, and Jazil finished seventh beaten 7 ¼ lengths by the unofficial winner Corinthian. With a very good colt on his hands and no graded stakes earnings, McLaughlin pointed Jazil towards the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. On the morning of the Wood, Saturday, April 8, the connections of Jazil must have been discouraged by the persistent showers that rendered the track sloppy, but if Jazil was to earn any graded stakes prize money he simply had to run. A deeep closer, Jazil was placed at an immediate disadvantage on the sloppy surface, and true to form he broke well back of the leaders, 13 ½ lengths back at the quarter-mile marker, and then he commenced his rally, determined, ground saving, and by mid-stretch he had pulled to within 7 lengths of the leader Bob And John, and when Bob And John crossed the wire Jazil had closed the gap to 1 ½ lengths. From the Daily Racing Form chart recap of the Wood: " Jazil ... rallied ... angled outside ... was coming outside fast at the finish." Perhaps it was McLaughlin's expert preparation and patience, perhaps it was the the influence of stamina and turf aptitude (turf aptitude often translates to off track performance), perhaps it was the three-way pace duel between Keyed Entry, Marco's Tale and Bob And John, or perhaps it was all of the above, but Jazil put together a rousing rally that carried him from the cheap seats all the way to a second place finish in the Wood, only 1 ½ lengths shy of the winner Bob And John. As a result Jazil earned his connections $150,000 in graded stakes prize money, and a possible ticket to the Kentucky Derby on May 6. Lightly raced with six overall starts, and fresh off his Wood performance, Jazil could well be peaking at the perfect moment in time, and he may be the best alternative to Brother Derek in the Derby. POINT DETERMINED Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Point Determined is sired by Point Given, a son of Thunder Gulch. The sire line of Point Given is Raise A Native. The sire of Point Determined 's dam Merengue is Broad Brush, and the sire line of Broad Brush is Domino. The first year at stud for Point Given was 2002, and Point Determined is now the leading money earner among his progeny. Broad Brush, the maternal grandsire of Point Determined, was the leading North America sire of 1994, and he sired Concern, winner of the 1994 Breeders Cup Classic, interestingly enough run at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby. Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, recently made Broad Brush a "Chef-de-Race" with an Intermediate-Classic designation, meaning he ranks among the better North American sires. Update 2 Point Determined punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a determined runner-up finish to probable Derby favorite Brother Derek in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Although Point Determined finished within 3 ¼ lengths of Brother Derek, onlookers had the impression the margin could have been as big as Brother Derek's jockey Alex Solis wanted it to be. Brother Derek set every fraction and threw a 24 second quarter at the field from the six furlong mark to the one mile mark, and it was all over but for the shouting. The final time of the race for the winner was an impressive 1:48 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. With only six lifetime starts now, Point Determined is still eligible to improve by the first Saturday in May, but he is going to have to come a long way to get past his nemesis Brother Derek. Update 1 Point Determined has five lifetime starts, three of them in 2006. The most recent was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Saturday, March 18. The San Felipe marked the return to championship form of the talented A. P. Warrior, but Point Determined challenged for the win in deep stretch, eventually settling for a hard fought second, one-half length back of the winner (A. P. Warrior). I witnessed the San Felipe and was impressed with the fighting spirit of Point Determined. With his first graded stakes earnings safely in his pocket, Point Determined is officially on the Derby trail. Next up for Point Determined is the Santa Anita Derby, April 8, at Santa Anita Park. The Santa Anita Derby is going to be a premier Kentucky Derby prep in 2006, hosting the talented Brother Derek, A. P. Warrior, and Point Determined. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. DISCREET CAT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.67. Discreet Cat is sired by Forestry, a son of Storm Cat. The sire line of Forestry is Northern Dancer. The sire of Discreet Cat's dam Pretty Discreet is Private Account, and the sire line of Private Account is Damascus. Storm Cat, the paternal grandsire of Discreet Cat, is one of the most successful sires in recent history. His progeny include an amazing 89 graded stakes winners, and that list is still growing. Cat Thief is Storm Cat's number one earner to-date at just under $4 million. Despite this sterling and prolific record, Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. On the dam side, maternal grandsire Private Account contributes an overall AWD of 8.03 furlongs (for North American open stakes ), a fairly pedestrian figure, although the figure for 2006 alone was a more promising 8.66. Pretty Discreet, the dam of Discreet Cat, won the 1995 Grade 1 Alabama. Pretty Discreet has also produced multiple stakes winner Pretty Wild. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Update 2 Godolphin announced Tuesday, April 18, Discreet Cat will bypass the entire Triple Crown series. Simon Crisford, Godolphin racing manager, pointed out that Discreet Cat is still very young and inexperienced, and will not reach three years of age until May, and these considerations weighed heavily in the decision. Discreet Cat will be pointed towards important races later in the 2006 campaign. Update 1 What exactly do we know about Discreet Cat? We know he defeated Superfly (Nick Zito) in his very first race, a maiden allowance at Saratoga, August 27, 2005, clocking in at a cool 1:09.76 for six furlongs, 3 ½ lengths clear of Superfly, and double-digit lengths ahead of the third place finisher. We know that within weeks of his inaugural performance, Discreet Cat was sold by Joyce Robsham to Godolphin Racing, Inc. We know that in his March 9, 2006 debut for Godolphin, Discreet Cat won the one mile Areej Trophy and did it easily, reaching the wire in 1:35.91. And now we know that Discreet Cat triumphed on the world stage in winning the $2 million U.E.A. Derby in Dubai, March 25, getting a mile and an eighth in 1:48.59. We also know the regular rider for Discreet Cat is the talented and flamboyant Frankie Dettori, and we know Discreet Cat is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. We know one more thing, that on March 25, 2006, Discreet Cat vaulted to the top of the graded earnings list for Kentucky Derby nominees, at a cool $1.2 million, not bad for a day's work. CAUSE TO BELIEVE Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Cause to Believe is sired by Maria's Mon, a son of Wavering Monarch. The sire line of Maria's Mon is Raise A Native. The sire of Cause to Believe's dam Imaginary Cat is Storm Cat, and the sire line of Storm Cat is Northern Dancer. The 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos is a son of Maria's Mon, interestingly enough sired in the inaugural crop of Maria's Mon. Last year's Derby hopeful High Fly was also sired by Maria's Mon. On the dam side, Storm Cat is a prolific and successful sire, however Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. Of course, Storm Cat is the maternal grandsire of Cause to Believe, contributing one-fourth of the overall pedigree to Cause to Believe. I f you are one of the millions of racing fans who enjoy thorough, professional race writing and analysis, you want to consider the popular new internet handicapping service The Premier Selection Plus. Replete with selections, analysis, wager recommendations, scratches, results and live updates the The Premier Selection Plus is waiting in your email inbox every Friday night with Saturday's handicapping report. It's only $14.99 for a full month of Saturdays, and you get 5 Saturdays, not 4. We email your order confirmation within 24 hours and also send you a complimentary copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For the 21st Century," by Horse-Race-Handicapping.com founder and internet handicapping professional Jim Lambert. Then you check your email late Friday night and the fun starts. Try it now. For Special Offer click here Update 2 The Illinois Derby, April 8, at Hawthorne was to be the coming out party for Cause to Believe, winner of the Grade 3 El Camino at Bay Meadows and the California Derby at Golden Gate. Instead, Sweetnorthernsaint may have blown out the candles on Cause to Believe's Derby cake. Cause to Believe seemed to be biding his time in an inside stalking position, saving ground, but when the field turned for home he simply had no answer for Sweetnorthernsaint, or even the pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe held on for third, beaten 10 ¼ lengths by Sweetnorthernsaint, and one length shy of runner-up Mister Triester. It was another length and a quarter back to fourth place finisher Lewis Michael. By finishing third, Cause to Believe was able to add $55,000 to his graded stakes earnings earnings, bringing his total graded stakes earnings to $192,500. This will probably be enough to punch a ticket to Louisville, but Cause to Believe will have to pick up his game to handle the added distance of the Kentucky Derby. Update 1 Cause to Believe is handled by the prolific winning trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and has already accomplished something not done before. Cause to Believe won both the Grade 3 El Camino at Bay Meadows and the California Derby at Golden Gate. These are the two Northern California preps for the Kentucky Derby. The first six races for Cause to Believe were all in his 2-year-old campaign and five of these were sprints, four of them at Golden Gate. He raced at a mile in the Bay Meadows Juvenile in October 2005. Cause to Believe won the Bay Meadows Juvenile and compiled three wins and two places in the five sprints. His first real test came in his 3-year-old debut, the San Miguel Stakes at Santa Anita, where he broke towards the rear of the pack and closed strongly to gain second behind Too Much Bling (Bob Baffert). Cause to Believe then won his first start in a graded stakes, the Grade 3 El Camino, defeating a fairly talented cast of characters that included Objective, A. P. Warrior (struggling at the time), and Wanna Runner. As if to answer the question, "Was the El Camino a fluke?", Cause to Believe thoroughly dominated the California Derby at Golden Gate. True, the field in the California was only five strong and not comparable to the strength of the higher profile Southern California preps, but what are you gonna do? He won and he won easily. Hollendorfer has indicated Cause to Believe will next race in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, April 8. WITH A CITY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.27. With a City is a son of City Zip, the #1 freshman sire of winners for 2005. His pedigree is heavily slanted towards speed. The average distance raced for his progeny is just over six furlongs, and the average winning distance is 6.3 furlongs. During his career, City Zip defeated Breeders Cup Sprint champion Speighstown in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga, a six furlong sprint. The pedigree of City Zip indicates there is a fair balance of sprint and classic distance aptitudes, and this is evidenced in 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, a half-brother to City Zip. The sire of City Zip is Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector) and the progeny of Carson City are even more slanted towards speed. On With a City's maternal side, the damsire With Approval, a son of Caro, injects stamina into the pedigree of With a City, but it appears to be turf stamina primarily. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) in North American open stakes on turf for the progeny of With Approval is over 9 furlongs, an indicator of above average endurance. However, the AWD for dirt stakes is less than 8 furlongs (less than one mile), a very common figure. On a footnote, the dirt AWD for progeny of With Approval is computed from less than five actual stakes races, which illustrates that the sons & daughters of With Approval do not find themselves in open stakes on the dirt very often. Update 3 With A City was euthanized early Sunday, April 23, several days after being stricken with an as yet undetermined illness. Update 2 The connections of With A City entered their colt a year too early and in the wrong race. With a new polytrack surface being installed during the off season, Keeneland will play host to the first Blue Grass Stakes ever to be run on polytrack in April of 2007. With A City would find the circumstances much less hostile than he did April 15, 2006 at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. On the authentic dirt surface, With A City finished thirteenth in a thirteen horse field, beaten over 50 lengths, and that is downright embarrassing. Amazingly, With A City has already punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his Lane's End triumph on the Turfway polytrack. His connections would be wise to take heed from the Arkansas Derby experience and quietly withdraw from the proceedings. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Update 1 I dusted off my copy of the July 23, 2005 Daily Racing Form, and flipped the pages until I found race 10 for Calder, and stared at the page. It was a six panel sprint on the dirt to be run under starter allowance conditions. A nondescript field of seven 2-year-olds stared back at me. The eventual winner, Beit's Bridge, had two prior races, a win in a maiden claiming sprint at Calder and a 5th place finish under starter allowance conditions, also at Calder. The eventual second place finisher, Suave Jazz, had won his maiden claiming debut at Calder. Suave Jazz has gone on to win a little over $16,000 in 2006. The fifth place finisher in the July 23 starter allowance was a 2-year-old by the name of With a City, losing by nearly 10 lengths as the betting favorite. That is how things were going for With a City early in his career. It's not all bad. He won his debut easily, a maiden claiming sprint at Calder. He finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, in two restricted stakes for Florida-breds at Calder, losing to In Summation in both races by a combined 19 ½ lengths. With a City managed to win twice on the turf at Calder, and herein lies the clue to his dramatic victory in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, March 25. There appears to be a mild correlation between success on the turf and success on the new "all weather track" at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. Why is this? Perhaps it is the "spongy" composition of the surface, that provides a buffer similar to the natural buffer that grass provides. Also, we know that the pedigree of With a City is influenced by a great source of turf aptitude, his maternal grandsire With Approval. And finally, With a City tried to give us a hint in the Battaglia at Turfway Park, finishing 8th but only four lengths back of the winner (Laity). What does all this mean for With a City's chances in the Kentucky Derby? Not much. The last time I looked, the Derby was run on dirt, and not on grass, and not on an "all weather track." The polytracks are coming, though, in California, and this is going to turn the handicapping & breeding industries topsy-turvy. None of the old rules will apply, in California anyway. ACHILLES OF TROY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.67. Notebook, now deceased, is the sire of Achilles of Troy, and did his best running at one mile. Notebook sired 44 stakes winners, including the filly Spoken Fur (winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in 2003) and the superior sprinter Delaware Township. Notebook is the son of Well Decorated, and represents one of the last successful lines of the Bold Ruler sires. Update 3 It may be time to stick a fork in Achilles of Troy, because he might be done. Vanned off after a disappointing fifth place finish in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday, March 18, and beaten more than seven lengths by upset winner Like Now (trained by Kiaran McLaughlin), the news could not be any worse for the connections of Achilles of Troy. Still without any graded stakes earnings, Achilles of Troy has a small mountain to climb to get back in the Derby picture. I suppose it is not an impossible task, but the outlook is bleak. First things first, let's see what kind of physical condition Achilles of Troy is in. Getting vanned off after a race is never a good sign. Even if Achilles of Troy recovers to do battle in the near future, it looks like the distance limitations passed on by his daddy Notebook will hamper any remaining Kentucky Derby aspirations. Update 2 To my surprise Jennifer Pederson and Paraneck Stable parted ways after a five-year relationship that seemed to be flourishing, on the track anyway. It has been reported that Pederson and the authorized agent of Paraneck, the impulsive Ernie Paragallo, were sometimes at odds over operational decisions. Most notably, Pederson did not want to run the star of the stable, Achilles of Troy, in the Count Fleet on January 7 at Aqueduct because it allowed for only nine days rest off of a maiden allowance victory December 29, 2005. Paragallo overruled Pederson, and Achilles of Troy went on to easily win not only the Count Fleet, but the Whirlaway on February 11. Pederson has been replaced, it was announced March 11, with the 47-year-old Frank Amonte, Jr., a one-time assistant trainer to Gary Contessa. This unexpected turn reminds me of George Steinbrenner firing Billy Martin, and I really don't know if it will make a difference for the Kentucky Derby aspirations of Achilles of Troy, and I don't know if it made a difference for the Yankees, either. Stay tuned to the soap opera for more developments. Oh, and by the way, last year Jennifer Pederson was arrested and held briefly for chasing an ex-employee around the barn with a pitchfork, so if you run across her at the salad bar, don't ask to borrow a fork. Update 1 Jennifer Pederson's patience is being rewarded as this colt has turned in back-to-back blockbuster performances at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway. A possible Achilles heel, though, is that the inner dirt course at the "Big A" is very forgiving for speedsters, while that other dirt course under the "Twin Spires" is not. Still, Achilles of Troy looks to be a superior athlete, and may be able to make the adjustment. Achilles of Troy will meet Hutcheson winner Keyed Entry and the Maryland based Sweetnorthernsaint head-on in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, March 18, at Aqueduct. The Gotham is the first graded stakes race for Achilles of Troy. BLUEGRASS CAT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.80. Bluegrass Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who ranked 11th in earnings on the 2005 North American Leading Sires list, and is one of the world's top sires. Storm Cat is also the broodmare sire of 2006 Juvenile Filly c hampion Folklore. Storm Cat is such a prolific and successful sire, it is almost unfair to cite weaknesses. However, Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is 7.58 furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. This would tend to limit, by implication, Bluegrass Cat at the classic distances, such as the one and one-quarter miles of the Kentucky Derby. Update 3 Sinister Minister altered in an instant the expectations of several Kentucky Derby contenders on Saturday, April 15 in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Bluegrass Cat is on that list, and after finishing fourth, more than 21 lengths to the worse of Sinister Minister, it is gut check time for Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, and the WinStar Farm. Bluegrass Cat has won four of seven overall starts, including two graded stakes victories, and he has amassed $312,980 in graded stakes earnings. The problem is the graded stakes wins were both as a juvenile, he was beaten in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby by Deputy Glitters, after purportedly throwing a shoe at a crucial moment, and there is no ready excuse in the Blue Grass. Keeneland is known for a speed bias, but a speed bias does not get you beat by 21 lengths if you are a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. The bottom line, Bluegrass Cat has earned a berth to the Derby, and he is almost certainly not good enough to win it. I f you are one of the millions of racing fans who enjoy thorough, professional race writing and analysis, you want to consider the popular new internet handicapping service The Premier Selection Plus. Replete with selections, analysis, wager recommendations, scratches, results and live updates the The Premier Selection Plus is waiting in your email inbox every Friday night with Saturday's handicapping report. It's only $14.99 for a full month of Saturdays, and you get 5 Saturdays, not 4. We email your order confirmation within 24 hours and also send you a complimentary copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For the 21st Century," by Horse-Race-Handicapping.com founder and internet handicapping professional Jim Lambert. Then you check your email late Friday night and the fun starts. Try it now. For Special Offer click here Update 2 Bluegrass Cat struggled to defeat Deputy Glitters (trained by Thomas Albertrani) in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February and was beaten by Deputy Glitters in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday, March 18. You could have gotten 63 to 1 on Deputy Glitters in the Sam F. Davis, and 8 to 1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bluegrass Cat is taking a circuitous route to the Kentucky Derby and needs to race on the major circuit soon, no disrespect to the good folks at Tampa Bay Downs. Update 1 Todd Pletcher's Derby hopeful is doing all that has been asked of him to-date. Saturday, February 18, Bluegrass Cat set a stakes record in winning the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. He is being pointed towards the Tampa Bay Derby in March. He will probably win given his talent and propensity to ration his considerable speed effectively. If I don't sound too excited, it's just that I am cautiously reserved about the chances of Bluegrass Cat to take the Kentucky Derby. Setting a stakes record at Tampa Bay Downs is not the stuff of legend, and Cat was four-fifths off the track record. Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner, Sun King, although he has turned into a nice horse, flopped at the Derby, finishing fifteenth (ouch). Make no mistake, though, Todd Pletcher will not place Bluegrass Cat in a position where he will be an abject failure. My gut feeling is that the Cat is an exotics play at best for the first Saturday in May. BROTHER DEREK Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.33. Brother Derek is sired by California sire Benchmark, a son of Alydar. Benchmark has generally outperformed the other better known sons of Alydar as a sire, including Alysheba, Strike the Gold, and Criminal Type. Benchmark captured three Grade 2 events in 1997: the Goodwood, the Del Mar Breeders Cup, and the San Bernardino. The dam of Brother Derek is the unraced Miss Soft Cell, who foaled the stakes winner Don'tsellmeshort, a full brother to Brother Derek. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) in North American open stakes for the progeny of Benchmark is 8.56 furlongs, certainly a positive indicator. And the AWD in open stakes for progeny of Brother Derek's maternal grandsire Siyah Kalem is 8.38 furlongs. Brother Derek looks to have a classic pedigree by any standards. Update 3 Sometimes numbers relay a story better than words. For example, the numbers 23.60, 46.59, 1:11.21, 1:35.39, and 1:48.00 tell you everything you need to know about the Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Brother Derek set every one of those fractions, and in doing so stamped himself the undeniable pre-Derby favorite. Take a closer at those numbers. The difference between 1:11.21 and 1:35.39 represents the 24 second quarter Brother Derek threw at the rest of the field from the six furlong marker to the mile marker. Now look at the final two numbers, 1:35.39 and 1:48.00. They represent the 12 3/5 seconds Brother Derek took to "cruise" the final eighth of a mile. Brother Derek was actually geared down by rider Solis for most of the final eighth. Now take a look at the last number, 1:48.00. That is how long it took Brother Derek to negotiate the entire 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. That is a demoralizing number for the rest of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Speaking of hope, is there any for the other 19 colts who will take on Brother Derek in Louisville? The answer is yes, despite Brother Derek's monster performance in the Santa Anita Derby. Brother Derek has yet to face a field in 2006 which challenged him in the early stages of a race. Expect that to change dramatically on Saturday, May 6. Also, the large fields of the modern day Kentucky Derby have the effect of transforming the spacious Churchill Downs main course into a "bull ring," particularly entering and exiting the turns. Of course, Brother Derek is not the only colt that has to negotiate through the harrowing traffic. All things considered, Brother Derek is going to be tough to beat in Louisville, but he has about a two in three chance of losing the race, even as the highest rated colt going in. Update 2 Brother Derek triumphed in the Grade 2 Santa Catalina Saturday, March 4, and he did it in a professional manner, patiently anticipating the cue from his rider Alex Solis that would be his signal to take control. Brother Derek did just that, taking control, and cruising to a definitive victory in just under 1:42 flat for the 1 1/16 miles on the main track at Santa Anita Park. He is ready for the Derby, right? Break out the bouquet of roses and the champagne glasses, right? Wrong! Derek is a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby, and came out of the Santa Catalina in good shape, with just a minor cut, but the late scratch of Bob Baffert's Wanna Runner created a pace void in the Santa Catalina. Latent Heat (Bobby Frankel) and Objective (Peter Miller) were left to contest the pace with Brother Derek, and Objective dropped back badly in the second turn, leaving Brother Derek very little resistance to deal with. Brother Derek is going to be more vulnerable at the mile and one-quarter Kentucky Derby distance, and there will be no shortage of pace pressure in the Derby, either. Brother Derek is one of the leading contenders right now, but I do not see a future with Brother Derek as Kentucky Derby champion. Update 1 Dan Hendricks is beloved in the Southern California region and beyond for his courage and clever wit. Hendricks is paralyzed from the waist down as a result of a motocross accident in the summer of 2004. A mere six weeks after the accident Hendricks returned to his Del Mar barn to resume training. Brother Derek would be his first Kentucky Derby starter. Fourth place finisher in the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile, Brother Derek was a mere footnote on the list of Derby hopefuls at that time. Brother Derek served notice seven weeks later (December 17, 2005) by winning the Hollywood Futurity. And in his 2006 campaign debut, Brother Derek defeated the two-year-old champion Stevie Wonderboy in the Grade 1 San Raphael at Santa Anita. Now Brother Derek is considered a leading contender and possible favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and who doth protest? Well, I do, as a matter of fact. Make no mistake, Brother Derek is a leading contender, but he has some limitations. His strength is a superior front-running style, and that style is tenuous at best in the Kentucky Derby. Also, the San Raphael set up like a training race for him as there was no other speed to think of. He could bide his time and save his strength for the stretch challenge sure to come from Stevie Wonderboy. But which Stevie Wonderboy showed up? Wonderboy was only days away from surgery to correct a condylar fracture and his performance was sub par, indicating to me he may have been suffering already. Andy Beyer awarded inflated speed figures to both Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy for the San Raphael, and when Beyer does that he renders his vaunted speed figures valueless. Brother Derek is probably at his best from one mile to one and one-sixteenth miles, and should he be challenged early in the Derby he will probably not be able to sustain his bid. BOB AND JOHN Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Bob And John is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire line of Seeking The Gold is Raise A Native. The sire of Bob And John' dam Minister's Melody is Deputy Minister, and the sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Bob And John is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Red Raymond, Jazil, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Northern Dancer represents the sire line of Bob And John's damsire Minister's Melody, and Northern Dancer also represents the sire line of Storm Cat, one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Bob And John's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a nondescript figure and not what you would like to see for a classic contender. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Update 2 No one can blame Bob And John for the Saturday morning showers that drenched the outer dirt course at Aqueduct, Saturday, April 8. Bob And John took the trip to New York from California to show the best of the East Coast his "A" game, and that's exactly what he did in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, sloppy track and all. Bob And John seemed to relish the off going as he sped effortlessly to the outside of the early leaders Keyed Entry and Marco's Tale, and commenced to hounding Keyed Entry all the way to the middle of the far turn, shaking loose of the rest of the field in the process. Rider Garrett Gomez asked for run from Bob And John in early stretch, and Bob And John responded and wore down Keyed Entry late, finishing with good energy to hold off the late closing Jazil for the victory. The final time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, in the slop, was 1:51.40. Bob And John got the final furlong in 14 seconds flat, not a strong figure, but good enough for the win. What are the implications of the victory? First and foremost, Bob And John earns $450,000 in graded stakes prize money to add on to the $140,370 he previously earned. That, in a nutshell, punches his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Second, the manner in which Bob And John fought and faced down Keyed Entry, Deputy Glitters, My Golden Song, and Greeley's Galaxy, and then held off the late charging Jazil, is a testimony to his talent, courage, and the preparation he received from handler Bob Baffert. Third, unless the track at Churchill Downs comes up sloppy on May 6, there is not much to project from his performance in the Wood to his anticipated performance in the Kentucky Derby. That is the nature of racing, but Bob And John is heading to Louisville, and getting there is half the battle. Update 1 Bob And John is trained by Bob Baffert, no stranger to the Kentucky Derby spotlight. It is worth mentioning that Bob Baffert has been amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Bob And John has been successful almost from the beginning, with three wins, one place, and two shows in seven starts heading into the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, at Santa Anita Park. We'll get back to the San Felipe in a moment. Bob And John has raced exclusively at the three major Southern California tracks, Del Mar, Hollywood Park, and Santa Anita. In just the second start of his inaugural campaign Bob And John served notice he was a talent to be reckoned with, ridden out in victory after toying with a maiden allowance field at Del Mar. Two months later, Bob And John met A. P. Warrior and Da Stoops in a talent laden first-level allowance, a two-turn mile, finishing second four lengths shy of the winner A. P. Warrior and a neck in front of stable mate Da Stoops. In the Real Quiet, three weeks later at Hollywood, Bob And John apparently won but was disqualified in a ridiculous steward's ruling and placed second behind the unofficial second place finisher Genre. Bob And John came in slightly exiting the far turn, momentarily impeding Genre, who was already beginning to back up and would eventually finish six lengths to the worse of Bob And John. In December, Bob And John met Kentucky Derby aspirant Brother Derek for the first time in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park. It was in the Futurity that Brother Derek stamped his name at the top of the short list of West Coast Derby hopefuls, while Bob And John was relegated to a quiet third place finish, beaten five lengths, but getting his first taste of graded stakes earnings. After reasserting himself by clearing first-level allowance conditions in January 2006, his 3-year-old debut, Bob And John turned his attention to the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, where rival Brother Derek was noticeably absent. Bob And John routed a questionable Sham field, nonetheless recording a healthy speed figure, and moved on to the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, also at Santa Anita. Now we can get back to the San Felipe. Bob And John received favoritism from the betting public, but failed to menace as he seemed one-paced the entire going, eventually working his way to a third place finish, but soundly beaten by the top two finishers, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined. I t is not that Bob And John digressed in the San Felipe, so much as A. P. Warrior (now trained by John Shirreffs, winning trainer of the 2005 Kentucky Derby) and Point Determined (another Baffert charge) moved forward. Point be told, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined both own pedigrees more in line with classic winners than does Bob And John. With this in mind, the outcome of the San Felipe is no surprise, but it sure seemed like a surprise to onlookers. Bob And John has amassed enough graded stakes earnings to gain an invitation to the big party on Saturday, May 6, but he has yet to show his 'A' game against top competition. His job is to make the San Felipe a distant memory, and he'll have his chance April 8, in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM* click here* STEPPENWOLFER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.46. Steppenwolfer is sired by Aptitude, a son of A. P. Indy. The sire line of Aptitude is Bold Ruler. The sire of Steppenwolfer 's dam Wolfer is the South African-bred Wolf Power, and the sire line of Wolf Power is the Irish-bred Princequillo. The first year at stud for Aptitude is 2002 and Steppenwolfer is his chief earner to-date. A grandson of A. P. Indy, Steppenwolfer is bred on the sire line for the classics. On the dam side, the progeny of Wolf Power have an outstanding winning rate of 18% of open stakes at the classic distances from 9 ½ to 12 furlongs. Wolf Power is the sire of the dam (Ask Anita) of two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew. It is clear Steppenwolfer is bred to run all day, just like trainer Daniel Peitz has been trying to tell us. Reserve Your Triple Crown Special 2006 Edition Today You get ALL THREE TRIPLE CROWN RACES, The Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont. You get the patented Horse-Race-Handicapping.com computer analysis and Premier Selection Plus handicapping report, all for $19.99. Subscribers to Triple Crown Special 2005 won a net profit of $764. Order now and we email you a special link the day before each Triple Crown race, your privacy is always protected. For information click here. To order click here. Update 3 In the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, April 15, at Oaklawn Park, Robbie Albarado rode Steppenwolfer like his life depended on it. The stakes were high, a first or second place finish in the Arkansas Derby was needed to gain a berth in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Steppenwolfer customarily broke near the back of the pack, eleventh and about eleven lengths off the leader Lawyer Ron after the (first) quarter. Lawyer Ron wasted no time in accelerating to the lead, laying down the gauntlet early, and Steppenwolfer needed to respond. He did. Albarado began urging the gray/roan son of Aptitude almost from the get-go, and Steppenwolfer accepted the challenge. As Lawyer Ron polished off a sizzling (third) quarter to get six furlongs in 1:10 and 4/5, Steppenwolfer had improved to eighth, about 6 ½ lengths back of Lawyer Ron. Not to be understated, Steppenwolfer improved his position while Lawyer Ron was demoralizing the rest of the field. By the time Lawyer Ron reached the eighth pole the race was over for all intensive purposes, and Steppenwolfer kept working, now third, 3 lengths behind Private Vow and only 4 ½ lengths behind Lawyer Ron. By the time the winner crossed the wire, Steppenwolfer had put Private Vow away and remained 2 ¾ lengths shy of Lawyer Ron. A sterling performance earned Steppenwolfer $200,000 in graded stakes prize money, bringing his total graded earnings to $230,000, and that will punch his ticket to Louisville, Saturday, May 6, for the Kentucky Derby. Update 2 The weather was showery although the official track condition was fast, and Steppenwolfer overcame an outside post and a moisture laden track to finish a creditable third behind Lawyer Ron and Red Raymond in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 18. The paycheck was important for Steppenwolfer, representing his first graded stakes earnings to be applied towards the targeted Kentucky Derby berth in May. Daniel Peitz must be pleased with the progress of his big, rangy colt, and all systems are go for the next step, probably the Arkansas Derby. Update 1 Arkansas native Daniel Peitz was quoted shortly before the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park: "It looks like my horse can run all day." And he is right. All eyes were on Lawyer Ron in the one mile Southwest Stakes on February 25, and Lawyer Ron did not disappoint, controlling the race from gate to wire on a resistant dirt surface. Meanwhile, the eventual second place finisher Steppenwolfer rallied from ninth to second with a prolonged, determined, one might say relentless, rally to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner at the wire. It was apparent to all who witnessed the Southwest that had the race gone another eighth of a mile, Steppenwolfer would have won. Steppenwolfer now has three wins, one place and one show in six lifetime starts and he is being pointed by Peitz to the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 18. With no graded stakes earnings to-date, Steppenwolfer is in need of a good performance in the Rebel to continue on the Derby trail. I f you are one of the millions of racing fans who enjoy thorough, professional race writing and analysis, you want to consider the popular new internet handicapping service The Premier Selection Plus. Replete with selections, analysis, wager recommendations, scratches, results and live updates the The Premier Selection Plus is waiting in your email inbox every Friday night with Saturday's handicapping report. It's only $14.99 for a full month of Saturdays, and you get 5 Saturdays, not 4. We email your order confirmation within 24 hours and also send you a complimentary copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For the 21st Century," by Horse-Race-Handicapping.com founder and internet handicapping professional Jim Lambert. Then you check your email late Friday night and the fun starts. Try it now. For Special Offer click here RED RAYMOND Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.33. Red Raymond is sired by Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister. The sire line of Deputy Commander is Northern Dancer. The sire of Red Raymond's dam Win Right Now is Waquoit, and the sire line of Waquoit is In Reality. Deputy Commander is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Grade 1 winner Ten Most Wanted and millionaire Grab Your Heart. He is also the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. On the dam side, Waquoit is heavily influenced by excellent grass pedigrees including Relaunch, In Reality, Grey Dawn, Herbager, and Graustark. However, in 2006 at least, Waquoit progeny (of course Waquoit is actually a grandsire of Red Raymond), performed magnificently on the dirt. The proof is ultimately in the pudding, but indications are Red Raymond has a strong pedigree for the classics. Update 2 Red Raymond needed to finish first or second in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, April 15, to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby in May, but it was not in the cards. Well back the entire going, Red Raymond could do no better than tenth in a thirteen horse field. Robert Holthus still has a fine animal on his hands, and Red Raymond will represent himself well at the appropriate level, but he'll be munching on oats Saturday, May 6, while his stablemate Lawyer Ron races under the Twin Spires. Update 1 Progress for Red Raymond has come in fits and spurts, until the Rebel Stakes, March 18, at Oaklawn Park. All the hard work finally bore fruit, primarily in the form a second place paycheck in a graded stakes. Most eyes were on Lawyer Ron that day, as he put an exclamation point on his Derby aspirations with a breathtaking move on the far turn that demoralized the competition. Red Raymond kept working, though, and clawed his way to a second place finish, only three lengths back of the victor Lawyer Ron. That clocked Red Raymond in at about 1:44 and 3/5 for the mile and one-sixteenth, and that is a very good time. This was a particularly strong Rebel field that included Steppenwolfer and Private Vow as well as Lawyer Ron. Robert Holthus is fortunate enough to be the trainer of both Lawyer Ron and Red Raymond, and Holthus indicated shortly after the Rebel that both of his runners would be pointed to the Arkansas Derby, April 15, at Oaklawn Park. A. P. WARRIOR Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.33. A. P. Warrior is sired by A. P. Indy, a son of Seattle Slew. The sire line of A. P. Indy is Bold Ruler. The sire of A. P. Warrior 's dam Warrior Queen is Quiet American, and the sire line of Quiet American is Raise A Native. A. P. Warrior is descended from two of the most prolific classic sire lines, the Bold Ruler and Raise A Native lines. A. P. Indy progeny win an unbelievable 15% of open stakes at the classic distances. A long line of champions including Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Weekend Surprise, Seattle Slew, Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Mr. Prospector, Raise A Native, and Afleet appear in the pedigree of A. P. Warrior. Update 2 In the Santa Anita Derby, April 8, in Arcadia, California, A. P. Warrior inherited the unenviable task of stalking the pacesetter Brother Derek. And, oh boy, what a pacesetter! Brother Derek set down the gauntlet with 1:11.21 for six furlongs, and promptly added insult to injury with a 24 second quarter to get the mile in 1:35.39. Realistically, the race was over before the final eighth of a mile was run. Brother Derek geared down for the final furlong, cruising to an impressive 1:48.00 for the 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. A. P. Warrior gave it everything he had, and inched forward in the second turn to get within a length of Brother Derek, but he was simply no match for the winner in the stretch, and was eventually outfinished for second by by Point Determined. In finishing third, A. P. Warrior earned $90,000 for his connections, bringing his total graded stakes earnings to $323,185, more than enough to earn him a berth in the Kentucky Derby. With eight lifetime starts now, we may have already seen what A. P. Warrior has to offer as a sophomore, and it is unlikely he would improve enough to grant John Shirreffs his second Derby win in as many years. But never say never in horse racing. After all, what were they saying about Giacomo about this time last year? To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here Update 1 Eoin Harty, a one-time Bob Baffert assistant, trained A. P. Warrior through his first six starts, including a second place finish to Brother Derek in the Grade 2 Norfolk at Santa Anita in October of 2005, and a dominating first-level allowance victory over Bob and John in November. At that point A. P. Warrior began to struggle under Harty's care, finishing fourth, beaten over six lengths by Brother Derek, in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park in December. Six weeks later he finished a well beaten sixth to Cause to Believe in the Grade 3 El Camino at Bay Meadows. After the El Camino, owner Stan Fulton decided to switch trainers, handing the reigns over to 2005 Kentucky Derby winning trainer John Shirreffs (Giacomo). A. P. Warrior responded immediately by capturing the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, Saturday, March 18. A. P. Warrior moved up four wide on the far turn, engaged the leaders, powered to the lead, and held off a late bid from Point Determined (Bob Baffert) to win by one-half length in a final time of 1:42.40 on a fast track. The field for the San Felipe included Derby prospects Point Determined (second) and Bob and John (third). Shirreffs has to be thrilled for the opportunity Stan Fulton and A. P. Warrior have given him. All systems are go for the Kentucky Derby. SUPERFLY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.78. Fusaichi Pegasus, winner of the 2000 Kentucky Derby, is the sire of Superfly. Fusaichi Pegasus won in a time of 2:01.2, not a terribly fast time considering all the press he got that year, and he is sired by Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector is certainly one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as well as classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. Superfly's dam is Marozia, who is regally bred with a tendency for producing grass runners (the Turf champion Roberto is her broodmare sire). Superfly's breeding does not generally support his Derby chances, however he is still an interesting prospect. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here Update 4 In a latch ditch effort to join the party in Louiville as a participant, as opposed to an observer, Nick Zito entered Superfly in the Arkansas Derby and Little Cliff in the Toyota Blue Grass, both on Saturday, April 15. As luck would have it, Nick won't be saddling anything on May 6 but a hangover from too many mint juleps, as his two aces got trumped. Superfly ran eleventh in the thirteen horse field of the Arkansas Derby, and we won't mention how many lengths he was beaten, but we will mention he finished well ahead of With A City. Update 3 Nick Zito entered his struggling 3-year-old in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, Saturday, March 25, in the hope Superfly would turn things around and collect a graded stakes paycheck. It didn't work, as Superfly reached contention on the "all weather track" at the head of the stretch only to fade badly, finishing fifth beaten some six lengths by upset winner With A City. The winner was clocked in 1:51 flat for the one and one-eighth miles of the Lane's End, not a particularly fast time. Update 2 Entered in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream Park Saturday, March 4, Superfly figured to have things his own way, but that was before he ran into a buzz saw by the name of Sunriver (Todd Pletcher). The Kentucky Derby aspirations of Superfly all but vanished as he finished third behind Sunriver and High Blues, more than ten lengths beaten. The winner's time for the 1 1/8 miles was clocked in an eye-popping 1:48 and 1/5, compared to a time of 1:49 for the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth over the same distance three hours later. Update 1 Nick Zito wants to rebound from the terrible disappointment of last year's Kentucky Derby, when big favorite Bellamy Road finished a lackluster seventh. The Derby eighth place finisher Andromeda's Hero issued Zito a measure of redemption with a second place finish in the Belmont five weeks later. Still, Zito considers the 2005 Triple Crown campaign one of his most disappointing ever. Do you know the question to Jeopardy's (category Horse Racing) answer: "Superfly?" The correct question is: "Which horse finished fifth in the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile?" Tell the truth, you did not know that. We know by now that Brother Derek finished fourth, and I am here to say that Superfly deserves a bit of press as well. After all, thoroughbred racing exists in other states than California. In his 2006 debut Superfly finished second in a first-level allowance at seven panels on a sloppy surface at Gulfstream Park. There is little to surmise from this race as it was run on a rain saturated surface. Nick Zito is one of the best at timing the progress of his top three-year-olds to coincide with the running of the Triple Crown races. Superfly just may be the real thing. STEVIE WONDERBOY Update 2 On February 10, Stevie Wonderboy was up and walking about his stall with a soft cast on his ankle only two days after undergoing surgery to repair a condlyar fracture sustained in training. Trainer Doug O'Neil indicated the prognosis for Stevie Wonderboy is excellent. Update 1 The 2005 Eclipse Award winning Juvenile champion is out of the Derby picture for 2006 due to injury. It is a terrible disappointment for the racing world. Although Stevie Wonderboy did not defeat Brother Derek in the San Raphael at Santa Anita in January, the path was clear for him to build momentum on the Derby trail and we would have heard from Stevie. SHARP HUMOR Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.64. Sharp Humor is sired by Distorted Humor, a son of Forty Niner. The sire line of Distorted Humor is Raise A Native. The sire of Sharp Humor's dam Bellona is Hansel, and the sire line of Hansel is Raise A Native. Raise A Native influences Sharp Humor on both family lines, and Raise A Native belongs to the "Brilliant" classification of the Chefs-de-Race. This is the aptitudinal category representing speed, as opposed to endurance. For instance, Mr. Prospector is a son of Raise A Native, an outstanding sprinter, and also is classified as a "Brilliant" Chef-de-Race. The 5 categories of Chefs-de-Race, covering the spectrum from speed to endurance, are "Brilliant", "Intermediate", "Classic", "Solid", and "Professional". The progeny of Sharp Humor's sire, Distorted Humor, register a AWD (Average Wining Distance) of just under one mile, a typical distance. Hansel, Sharp Humor's maternal grandsire, was known as an exceptionally fast horse that could dominate at distances up to a mile and an eighth. Hansel won several graded stakes in 1991, including the Lexington, the Jim Beam, and two legs of the Triple Crown, the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Sharp Humor owns a speed-oriented pedigree with a rich history of excellent performance in the classics. Update 1 Dale Romans had roughly 4 ½ months to prepare Sharp Humor for the Grade 2 Swale Stakes, March 4, at Gulfstream Park. In his 2-year-old campaign, Sharp Humor raced against fellow New York State-breds in 4 of 5 starts, winning both the Sleepy Hollow and Bertram F. Bongard Stakes. In his lone start in open company, a first-level allowance at Saratoga, Sharp Humor finished fourth, well beaten by First Samurai. In his 2006 debut in the Swale, contested at seven furlongs, Sharp Humor responded well with a game second to Noonmark, and recorded his highest speed figure to-date. Pundits feared the 1 1/8 miles of the Florida Derby, April 1, would exceed the limitations of Sharp Humor's front running style. Sharp Humor, true to form, sprang to the lead and dictated the pace all the way to the far turn, where he was challenged by the eventual winner, Barbaro. Refusing to yield, Sharp Humor battled relentlessly to the inside of Barbaro, only to yield in the final yards. Dale Romans indicated he felt vindicated by Sharp Humor's performance, although disappointed that victory eluded Sharp Humor after such a courageous performance. The Kentucky Derby is the next stop for Sharp Humor. CORINTHIAN Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.20. Corinthian is sired by Pulpit, a son of A. P. Indy. The sire line of Pulpit is Bold Ruler. The sire of Corinthian's dam Multiply is Easy Goer, and the sire line of Easy Goer is Raise A Native. No matter what angle you use to examine the pedigree of Corinthian, it looks regal beyond all scrutiny. Pedigree does not win races, but it provides a head start that the connections can work with. Corinthian is bred to win the classic races. Update 2 In a stroke of terrible luck, Corinthian is out of the classics, just as he was becoming one of the more promising contenders. Corinthian suffered a minor injury while prepping for his next race. According to Dr. Stephen Carr of Centennial Farms, Corinthian suffered "a very small hairline crack on the top and the front of the long pastern bone in his left hind ankle." It is a common injury not requiring surgery, but it requires rest, and Corinthian will miss the entire Triple Crown series. Update 1 Trained by James Jerkens, Corinthian opened a lot of eyes Saturday, March 4, in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Corinthian had difficulty maintaining a straight path in the stretch but crossed the wire first in a very impressive time of 1:49 flat for the 1 1/8 mile distance. Although disqualified by the stewards and placed third behind First Samurai and Flashy Bull, Corinthian was the colt who impressed onlookers the most with a stalwart, prolonged move and an energetic rush to finish a clear first under the wire. Corinthian gave a glimpse of what was to come in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream over the same distance in early February by recording a winning time of 1:49 and 3/5 in only his third lifetime start. If you were holding stock in Corinthian, the value just tripled after the Fountain of Youth. He is a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat. PRIVATE VOW Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.11. Private Vow is sired by Broken Vow, a son of Unbridled, and in fact Private Vow is in the first crop of Broken Vow. Broken Vow's offspring earned him 17th place on the 2005 two-year-old sire list, thanks in most part to the earnings of Private Vow. Private Vow is only the second foal of his dam Smooth as Silk, a daughter of Deputy Minister. In the world of pedigree terminology, Private Vow is what is known as a "Dual Qualifier." That means that (1) he has a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less and (2) his Experimental Free Handicap is 116 pounds or higher. This is a just a roundabout way to say that Private Vow is bred well and is performing well. Big deal! Tell me something I don't know! Private Vow's sire Broken Vow is a descendant of both the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native and Northern Dancer lines. This is a common and successful strategy in North American breeding to introduce influences from these two prodigious lines. The second maternal sire of Private Vow is Deputy Minister. Private Vow is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Bob And John, Red Raymond, Jazil, and Deputy Glitters. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Update 3 Steve Asmussen is one of the most talented horseman in the business, and there is no doubt Private Vow is benefiting from his handler's care. Private Vow stayed the going for the most part against Lawyer Ron in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, April 15. The results chart recap from the Daily Racing Form indicated " ... Private Vow ... prompted the winner ... continued to chase through the second turn ... lodged a mild bid ... was denied ... weakened ... caught for the place." Lawyer Ron dominated the Arkansas Derby, Steppenwolfer stormed home for the place, and Private Vow earned a hard fought third, 1 ½ lengths back of Steppenwolfer and 4 ¼ lengths shy of Lawyer Ron. With the $100,000 paycheck for his third place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Private Vow has earned in excess of $417,000 of graded stakes prize money, placing him in the top ten of Kentucky Derby nominees. Private Vow is a contradiction, earning one graded stakes paycheck after another, and at the same time looking haggard when finishing a race (he "walked home" in 14 and change for the final eighth in the Arkansas Derby). Remember, though, Private Vow won the Kentucky Gold Cup under the Twin Spires as a juvenile, and a good performance at the host track for the Kentucky Derby is always a good omen. Update 2 No excuses this time. The Grade 3 Rebel Stakes served as the 2006 debut for Private Vow, coming after a four month layoff subsequent to his victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, November 26, 2005 at Churchill Downs. Hard held early and under stout restraint into the far turn, Private Vow reached contention only to fade badly in the stretch, finishing seventh about seven lengths back of the winner Lawyer Ron. With two Grade 2 victories from his juvenile campaign, Private Vow has a head start in graded stakes earnings, and Steve Asmussen has time to straighten the course. Update 1 Trained by the energetic and prolific winning trainer Steve Asmussen, Private Vow to-date has only six lifetime starts and has not raced in 2006. Asmussen is pointing Private Vow towards the March 18 Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and his performance in the Rebel Stakes will go a long way to answer the question "Who is the real Private Vow?" In his six starts Private Vow has recorded four victories including the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont and the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Although his juvenile campaign is on the surface very impressive, it is his performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile that seems to throw a wrench in the works, or does it? Private Vow finished 14th (dead last) in the Juvenile but he has a built-in excuse and it is a beauty. After J. R. Velazquez steered Private Vow into good position approaching the turn, the left rein snapped resulting in Private Vow veering to the right and losing all chance. Private Vow merely cantered to the finish. It is impossible to know how Private Vow would have done in the Breeders Cup Juvenile had he avoided misfortune, but an educated guess would have him finishing anywhere from third to sixth. Considering he rebounded to take the Kentucky Jockey Club four weeks later would lend credence to that assessment. He faced a reasonable field in the Kentucky Gold Cup, sitting pretty behind pacesetter High Cotton before pouncing for the win. And it doesn't hurt that the Kentucky Gold Cup was held at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby. Stay tuned for the 2006 debut of Private Vow and we will have more clues to his Derby readiness. LIKE NOW Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.40. Like Now is sired by Jules, a son of Forty Niner. The sire line of Jules is Raise A Native. The sire of Jules 's dam Can't Bluff Me is Pine Bluff, and the sire line of Pine Bluff is Northern Dancer. Jules, now deceased, sired Peace Rules, third place finisher in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, but had a relatively brief career at stud. On the positive side, the AWD (Average Winning Distance in North American open stakes) for the progeny of Jules is nearly nine furlongs, well above average. On the dam side, the progeny of (dam sire) Pine Bluff display a tendency towards speed, with a AWD in North American open stakes of 6.5 furlongs, and a AWD of 7.5 furlongs in all starts (includes non-stakes and restricted stakes). Update 2 Like Now earned $65,000 for his second place finish in the Grade 2 Lexingon Stakes at Keeneland , Saturday, April 22. Together with the $120,000 from the Grade 3 Gotham victory, Like Now has $185,00 in graded stakes earnings, good enough for 17th place on the earnings list and an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. Under the careful handling of rider Fernando Jara (replacement for the injured J. R. Velazquez), Like Now sparred with Fast Parade in the early going of the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes, and after disposing of that one alternated leads with long shot Bear Character in early stretch. Like Now was tackled by eventual winner Showing Up in deep stretch and managed to save the place. In the aftermath of the Lexington, the connections of Like Now are hesitant to announce a Kentucky Derby committment. Realistically, Like Now has little or no chance to win in the Derby. The limitations of the pedigree, coupled with the strength of the anticipated Derby field, are simply too high a mountain to climb for Like Now. Update 1 The influence of speed in the pedigree of Like Now is evident on the track in dramatic fashion, and Like Now used his inherited speed to separate himself from the rest of the Grade 3 Gotham field, Saturday, March 18, at Aqueduct, holding just enough in reserve to repel the late challenge from Keyed Entry (Todd Pletcher). The result was a first place paycheck in a graded stakes, and a huge upset at odds of better than 36 to 1. Kiaran McLaughlin, a one-time Lukas assistant, handles Like Now for owner John J. Dillon, and owner and trainer must realize that the same strengths Like Now exhibited in winning the Gotham are going to be exposed as weaknesses at the classic distances (the Gotham was 1 1/16 miles) against the best 3-year-olds in the country. For now, though, for the connections of Like Now, it is time to savor the taste of victory. BARBARO Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.81. The sire of Barbaro is Dynaformer, known as a prodigious sire of turf specialists. Dynaformer has managed to sire Dynever and Mystery Giver, two superior dirt runners. Barbaro's dam is La Ville Rouge. Barbaro is only her second foal to race. With maternal grandsire Carson City, Barbaro's pedigree on the dam side is heavily slanted towards speed, although the sire line of Turn-To injects much needed stamina into Barbaro's pedigree. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here Update 2 In witnessing the Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 1, at Gulfstream Park, I knew I was seeing a brilliantly prepared colt in Barbaro. His ears were pricked, his coat was shining in the sunlight, and his muscles were taught with strength. Barbaro overcame the handicap of the 10th post position by using his speed to secure a good position on the first turn. He stalked the determined leader Sharp Humor, reached even terms on the far turn, and engaged the leader in a prolonged stretch duel, wearing down Sharp Humor only late in the proceedings, and posting a ½ length victory over Sharp Humor, with Sunriver another 3 lengths back. Barbaro reached the wire in 1:49.01, a good time to be sure considering the difficulty an extreme outside post poses in a two-turn route at Gulfstream Park. The winner's share of the Florida Derby prize money secures Barbaro an invitation to the big dance in Kentucky, and he will go there undefeated, a perfect 5 wins in 5 starts. Barbaro also proved to his detractors that a dry dirt surface is no problem at all. Is there any downside, is the glass half empty? The maternal grandsire of Barbaro is Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector) and the progeny of Carson City are heavily slanted towards speed. This could pose a problem down the road in the Belmont, run at 1 ½ miles. Carson City accounts for only a quarter of the pedigree of Barbaro, and the speed he injects into the pedigree could mix a perfect cocktail of ¾ stamina and ¼ speed for the Kentucky Derby. Michael Matz has to be thrilled with the outlook for his charge going into the weeks leading up to the Derby. Update 1 This fellow opened eyes in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park in winning his fourth race in four starts for trainer Michael Matz, the Holy Bull being the first race on dirt, albeit sloppy, for Barbaro. The field for the Holy Bull was only typical Grade 3 competition, but it is nice to see Barbaro continue his streak. If he is to prove his mettle as a Derby hopeful, he needs to take on tougher competition. Michael Matz trains Barbaro, and Matz has devoted his life to horses. He is a record setting show jumping rider, a three time Olympian, and won the U. S. Equestrian Team (USET) Show Jumping Championship a record six times. Matz has in recent years turned his attention to training thoroughbreds. At least until the Florida Derby, April 1, Barbaro will not have raced on a dry dirt surface (the Holy Bull was run over a sloppy Gulfstream track), so we need to see how he handles it before coming to any conclusions about his chances in the Derby. KEYED ENTRY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.60. Keyed Entry is sired by Honour and Glory, a son of Relaunch. The sire line of Honour and Glory is In Reality. The sire of Keyed Entry 's dam Ava Knowsthecode is Cryptoclearance, and the sire line of Cryptoclearance is Raise A Native. Honour and Glory was a superior sprinter and miler, and finished 18th in the 1996 Kentucky Derby, after showing speed for six furlongs. Early indications are that Honour and Glory is passing on his middle distance talent, and limitations, to his progeny. On the dam side, though, Cryptoclearance is a superior influence for classic distances. In the 1987 Triple Crown, Cryptoclearance finished fourth in the Derby, third in the Preakness, and second in the Belmont. Update 3 Mother Nature threw a spit ball to the contenders in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, April 8. She poured rain on the main course all morning Saturday and undeniably altered the complexion of the Wood. Keyed Entry, as it turns out, is a pretty good spit ball hitter. The sire line of Keyed Entry's sire Honour and Glory is In Reality, a superb progenitor of off-track specialists. Keyed Entry sprang to the lead on the sloppy surface, rating while off the inner rail. For what seemed an eternity, Keyed Entry set the fractions until the eventual winner Bob And John reached his outer flank and wore Keyed Entry down. In the final yards Keyed Entry ran out of petrol and was passed by the late running Jazil. The time of the race was 1:51.4 for the one and one-eighth miles. Keyed Entry got the final eighth in about 14 ½ seconds, the sign of an exhausted horse. There is not much to surmise about the Wood Memorial as an indicator to possible success or failure in the Kentucky Derby this year. Mother Nature took care of that. Keyed Entry picks up another graded stakes paycheck for his connections, though, and he has earned enough for an invite to the big dance in May. Update 2 In the aftermath of the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, there is both good news and bad news for the connections of Keyed Entry. The good news is Keyed Entry picks up a nice paycheck for finishing second in a Grade 3 stakes, and tacked on to his Grade 2 Hutcheson earnings, places him firmly in the running for a Derby invitation. The bad news is he lost to a colt (Like Now) nowhere on the radar screen for the Kentucky Derby, a colt who too took three tries to graduate the maiden ranks, and maiden claiming at that. Todd Pletcher will have a little time consider his next move, and I am sure he is happy Keyed Entry is still in the Derby hunt. Update 1 Suddenly on February 4, Keyed Entry burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a definitive victory over odds-on favorite First Samurai in the Grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park. The win was the third in as many starts for the son of Honour and Glory. At 7 ½ furlongs on a wet, speed favoring surface, the Hutcheson in no way serves as a template for the one and one-quarter mile Kentucky Derby classic. A big plus for Keyed Entry, though, is his 2005 Eclipse Award winning trainer Todd Pletcher, who set an all-time training record in 2005 for money earned ($20.8 million). Pletcher saddled the 2001 Kentucky Derby runner-up Invisible Ink. Pletcher is pointing Keyed Entry to the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 18 at Aqueduct. Reserve Your Kentucky Derby 2006 Racing Report Today With Patented Computer Analysis And National Handicapping Report For All The Big Races On Derby Day All For $7.99 From *Horse Race Handicapping.com* For Information Click Here To Order Click Here FIRST SAMURAI Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.64. As First Samurai begins to tackle longer distances, his breeding shortcomings on the dam side may rear up. The dam for First Samurai is Freddy Frisson, who hails from a family of sprinters. First Samurai's sire is Giant's Causeway, runner-up to Tiznow in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic. Giant's Causeway was named European Horse of the Year in 2000, and Giant's Causeway is one of the few thoroughbreds able to excel on both dirt and grass surfaces in his career. Update 3 First Samurai was only one of many that fell prey to the onslaught unleashed by Sinister Minister in the Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland, Saturday, April 15. The loss was particularly disheartening for the connections of First Samurai, out to prove their young star could handle the one and one-eighth miles of the Blugrass. Sent off as the 5-2 second choice along with Strong Contender, First Samurai raced within striking distance early, encountered no traffic problems, eventually fading to a fifth place finish, beaten an embarrassing 30 lengths by Sinister Minister, and simply had no excuse for the poor performance. The limitations of the pedigree on the dam side continue to be exposed, and despite owning more than enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby, First Samuari probably has no realistic chance to win. Update 2 First Samurai demonstrated Saturday, March 4, in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park how courageous and competitive he is. After being bothered on his outside in deep stretch by Corinthian (James Jerkens) and seemingly well beaten, First Samurai angled to the outside and re-rallied to save the place. Then, after a steward's inquiry against the unofficial winner Corinthian, First Samurai was awarded the victory, and Corinthian was placed third behind Flashy Bull. Despite the show of courage by First Samurai, the breeding limitations earlier mentioned are beginning to cast doubt on his chances for the Kentucky Derby. The simple truth is First Samurai was beaten to the wire in the Fountain of Youth by Corinthian, and from now on it is going to be an uphill battle for the connections of First Samurai. Update 1 No excuses in the Grade 2 Hutcheson for First Samurai. Yes, it is true the winner Keyed Entry was alone on the lead. Yes, it is true the main course was wet for the Hutcheson. But Keyed Entry had just cleared first-level allowance conditions, and the classier First Samurai had absolutely no answer for him. There is nothing in the bloodlines of First Samurai to suggest he will suddenly develop into a Kentucky Derby winner. He is just one of several nice horses that will be trying. He is not one of my favorites, but Frankie Brothers is a talented trainer and he will give First Samurai every chance to prepare for a Derby bid. SUNRIVER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.55. Sunriver is sired by Saint Ballado, a son of Halo. The sire line of Saint Ballado is Turn-To. The sire of Sunriver's dam Goulash is Marie's Book, and the sire line of Marie's Book is Northern Dancer. Saint Ballado is the sire of 2005 Breeders Cup Classic winner Saint Liam. Halo is a Classic Chef-de-Race, meaning he is one of North America's finest sires. He contributes a perfect blend of speed and stamina to the pedigree of Sunriver. Halo is the sire of classic winners Sunny's Halo and Sunday Silence. Mari's Book, the maternal grandsire of Sunriver, has shown to contribute an aptitude for intermediate speed to his descendants. Update 2 Sunriver faced off with Barbaro in the Florida Derby, April 1, at Gulfstream Park, but the anticipated duel never developed. While Barbaro ran the race of his life, and upstart Sharp Humor battled Barbaro courageously down the entire length of the stretch, Sunriver was constantly caught wide going into and out of turns, but managed to rally for a hard fought third place finish. The prize winnings for the third place finisher in the 2006 Florida Derby are $100,000, a good payday, but probably not good enough to keep Sunriver in the top 20 of graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Todd Pletcher will have to bite the bullet and enter Sunriver in another Derby prep if he feels his colt can muster up to the challenge. Barbaro won the Florida Derby in a very good time of 1:49.01, and Sunriver finished only 3 ½ lengths shy of the winner, this while taking several detours on route to the finish line. Judging from Pletcher's post race comments, he is pleased with the progress of Sunriver, and we may or may not see him in an upcoming prep. Update 1 Trained by Todd Pletcher, Sunriver quietly recorded a winning time four-fifths of a second faster then the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth unofficial winner Corinthian did on the same day. Three hours before the field went to post for the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park Saturday, March 4, Sunriver and four others took part in a first-level allowance at the identical distance of one and one-eighth miles. Sent off as the 2-to-1 second choice behind odds-on favorite Superfly (Nick Zito), Sunriver chased the pace three wide, moved up smartly on the backstretch, took the lead nearing the quarter pole and went on to victory. Granted the competition was not the level of the Fountain of Youth but there is no denying the fast winning time recorded by Sunriver. This was the fifth overall start for Sunriver, and with no lifetime graded stakes earnings, Todd Pletcher has entered Sunriver in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, April 1. There he will face the undefeated Barbaro. LAWYER RON Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 4.14. Sired by Langfuhr, the Canadian champion sprinter of 1996, Lawyer Ron is exhibiting the brilliant turn of foot his daddy flashed in winning the Grade 1 Vosburgh, the Grade 2 Forego, and the Metropolitan and Carter Handicaps. Normally these types of bloodlines are more of a hinder than an asset in the Kentucky Derby. But these are different times, and many recent Derbies have been captured by colts who do not fit the traditional mold. The dam's sire line of Turn-To contributes stamina to the pedigree of Lawyer Ron, but this influence is overshadowed by the predominance of speed in the bloodlines. Update 3 We are getting really tired of repeating "Wow!" when referring to the exploits of Lawyer Ron, so perhaps this is a good time to wax philosophical about the exciting colt. First things first, it is fair to say that the Dosage Index of 4.14 assigned to Lawyer Ron is probably biased against him, ignoring positive influences in his pedigree. For instance, his maternal second sire Lord Avie has a Dosage Index of 3.47 and a total of 38 Dosage Points compared to only 18 for Lawyer Ron. Langfuhr, the sire of Lawyer Ron, has a Dosage Index of 2.58 with a total of 34 Dosage Points. The Dosage Points are important because they indicate representation of the "Chefs-de-Race" in the pedigree. If a horse like Lawyer Ron is winning graded stakes with ease, and the points are not there, then either the pedigree is not strong and the horse is a "freak of nature," or more likely, new "Chefs-de-Race" need to be designated to fill in the gaps. I think that is what has happened with Lawyer Ron, but only to a degree. Getting away from philosophy and back to the track, Lawyer Ron made his patented accelerating, emphatic move to get to the front of the pack in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, not unlike what Brother Derek did in the Santa Anita Derby, and Lawyer Ron registered a (third) quarter in 24 and 2/5 seconds to get six furlongs in a blistering 1:10 and 4/5. Lawyer Ron continued with a (fourth) quarter in 26 and 4/5 to get a mile in 1:37 and 3/5, assuming complete control of the Arkansas Derby. Oaklawn Park fractions cannot be compared on the same scale as Santa Anita, so do not make the mistake of comparing Lawyer Ron's fractions with Brother Derek's. However, you would be correct to assume that Lawyer Ron was tiring in the late going, getting the final eighth of a mile in a modest 13 and 3/5 seconds. What does all this mean? First, the pedigree of Lawyer Ron is better then meets the eye. Second, the mile and one-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby is going to tax Lawyer Ron like he has never been taxed before. And third, he must be considered one of the top two or three prospects going into the Derby. Update 2 Wow! I'd like to say that again. Wow! Lawyer Ron put an exclamation point on his Kentucky Derby aspirations with an emphatic victory in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 18. This was a strong Grade 3 field, which included Steppenwolfer, Private Vow, and the underrated Red Raymond. Lawyer Ron put a move on the field in the far turn that left the rest gasping for breath. Rider John McKee was along for the ride that culminated in a three length margin over Red Raymond in a nifty 1:44 flat. Keep your eyes on Lawyer Ron. Update 1 Bob Holthus trains Lawyer Ron, and his charge began his career by simply blowing away the competition. Lawyer Ron really opened eyes when he won the Grade 3 Risen Star at Louisiana Downs, and did so easily with a pretty big figure. Next was the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Lawyer Ron wired the field in the two-turn mile Southwest at Oaklawn Park Saturday, February 25, in a time of 1:40 flat. An all-night rain had softened the main course and by race time it was beginning to dry out, with some of the moisture getting packed in, so the final time of 1:40 is probably pretty good. Steppenwolfer ran a strong closing second and caught me eye as well. I'd say Robert Holthus is satisfied with the progress of Lawyer Ron. DEPUTY GLITTERS Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Deputy Glitters is Deputy Commander. The sire of Deputy Commander is Vice Regent, and the sire line of Deputy Commander is Northern Dancer. The sire of Deputy Glitters' dam Glitters is Glitterman, and the sire line of Glitterman is Bold Ruler. Deputy Commander is among the world's leading second-crop, third-crop, and fourth-crop sires of 2003 through 2005. He is the sire of Grade 1 winner Ten Most Wanted and millionaire Grab Your Heart. Deputy Glitters is a half-brother to Red Raymond, another son of Deputy Commander in the 2006 Derby hunt. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. On Deputy Glitters' dam side, maternal grandsire Glitterman sired four millionaires, including Balto Star, a winner of the Grade 1 United Nations Handicap and Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, and Glitter Woman, a winner of the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes. Glitterman is a complete outcross for the two most popular sire lines of modern times, Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native and Northern Dancer, and as a result was matched with several of their daughters & granddaughters. The match between Glitterman and Bon Adieu that produced Glitters, the dam of Deputy Glitters, is a prime example. The influence of Glitterman is a tendency towards speed, and Glitterman himself performed at his best in sprints, winning the Grade 3 Philadelphia Park Budweiser Breeders Cup Handicap and the Louisiana Downs Budweiser Breeders Cup Handicap, both contested at six furlongs. Update 2 As the showers began to fall in the Jamaica, New York area Saturday morning, April 8, the connections of Deputy Glitters had to be smiling inside. After all, Deputy Glitters seemed to relish a front running style he had put on display in Florida at Tampa Bay Downs. His pedigree being slanted towards speed, the off track would compliment his running style. Things did not go as planned, though, as Deputy Glitters tired badly in the stretch to finish a well beaten sixth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, 17 lengths behind the winner Bob And John. Deputy Glitters earned a mere $3,750 for his efforts, bringing his graded stakes earnings total to $163,750. This amount may or may not be enough to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Update 1 Deputy Glitters, trained by Thomas Albertrani, battled Bluegrass Cat in the Sam F. Davis, February 18, and then in the Tampa Bay Derby, March 18, both at Tampa Bay Downs, Florida. Bluegrass Cat struggled to defeat Deputy Glitters in the Sam F. Davis, and Deputy Glitters turned the tables on Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby with a powerful, stalking effort. Deputy Glitters finished second at odds of 63 to 1 in the Sam F. Davis, and won at odds of 8 to 1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa Bay Downs is not a usual stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner, Sun King, finished fifteenth in the Kentucky Derby. Prior to the Sam F. Davis, Deputy Glitter's best performance in a stakes was a modest fifth place finish, beaten 5 ¾ lengths, in the Huntington Stakes at Aqueduct, November 13, 2005. The Sam F. Davis seemed a reasonable alternative to the more difficult 3-year-old Derby preps, although the talented Bluegrass Cat was attracted for the same reasons. As it transpired, Bluegrass Cat went on to set a stakes record in winning the Sam F. Davis, and it was thought Bluegrass Cat would have an easy time of it in the Tampa Bay Derby, and in doing so claim the winner's share of a graded stakes purse. Nobody bothered to tell Thomas Albertrani and Deputy Glitters, though, and we now know the rest of the story. Deputy Glitters defeated Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby, and is headed to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, April 8. SINISTER MINISTER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 4.00. Sinister Minister is a son of Old Trieste, and the sire of Old Trieste is A. P. Indy. Sinister Minister's paternal second sire A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of SW (Stakes Winners) in 2004. A. P. Indy is the North American leading sire of 2003. Some of the illustrious sons & daughters of A. P. Indy are A. P. Warrior, Teammate, Sweet Symphony, Congrats, Mineshaft, Suave, Aptitude, Seeking the Glory, and Sweet Symphony. Old Trieste, the sire of Sinister Minister, died in early 2003 of acute laminitis, the same year he ranked second on the North American freshman sire list. From three crops to race Old Trieste sired Breeders Cup 2005 Sprint winner Silver Train, G1SW Minister Eric, and 4-time 2005 SW Mr. Trieste. Old Trieste finished 10th in the 1998 Kentucky Derby (won by Real Quiet) after setting the pace for one mile. The sire of Sinister Minister's dam Sweet Minister is The Prime Minister. A son of Deputy Minister, The Prime Minister owns a Dosage Index of 1.25 and inherited the stamina influences of the Turn-To and Princequillo lines on his dam side, and a blend of speed and classic influences from Northern Dancer on his sire side. Deputy Commander, another son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Update 1 Bob Baffert, that silver-haired magician, is holding three aces in 2006 by the names of Bob And John, Point Determined, and Sinister Minister. Baffert takes aim at a fourth Derby win and Sinister Minister is probably his best chance. While Bob And John is getting a lot of attention for his splashing romp in the Wood, and Point Determined is improving but keeps bumping heads with Brother Derek, Sinister Minister is a more attractive proposition. Bob And John now has nine overall starts and the public is familiar with his talents, and his limitations. Point Determined is not making up any ground on Brother Derek despite several opportunities. On the other hand, Sinister Minister has only five starts, and shocked the racing world with an eye-opening runaway victory in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland, Saturday, April 15. Sinister Minister actually broke in the air, recovered in an instant, rushed to the lead, opened up, and coasted home by 12 ¾ lengths. Sinister Minister set fractions of 22.91 (quarter), 45.88 (half), 1:09.94 (three-quarters), 1:35.45 (mile), and 1:48.85 (mile and one-eighth). What exactly happened in the Blue Grass? Detractors point to a prominent speed bias on the Keeneland main course, but come on now, Sinister Minister won by double digit lengths. Strong Contender, First Samurai, and Bluegrass Cat were merely objects "larger than they appeared in the rear view mirror." Up to the Blue Grass, Sinister Minister's best race was a second place finish to Cause To Believe in the California Derby, March 11, at Golden Gate. In the stretch, Sinister Minister hit the rail twice trying to jump it, and still earned a very strong speed figure, hinting at what was to come. His three races prior to the California Derby included a 5th place finish in a maiden allowance sprint, a $62,500 maiden claiming win at 5 ½ furlongs (with a 102 Beyer figure), and an up-the-track finish in the Grade 2 San Vicente (Santa Anita). Like his father Old Trieste, Sinister Minister always shows speed. The sudden development of Sinister Minister into an important Kentucky Derby contender is bad news for Brother Derek, First Samurai, Lawyer Ron, and any other front runner. It could be great news for true closers like Jazil and Steppenwolfer. Or it might be bad news for all the contenders, except Sinister Minister, Bob Baffert, and the Lanni Family Trust Mercedes Stable. STRONG CONTENDER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.33. The sire of Strong Contender is Maria's Mon, a son of Wavering Monarch. The 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos is a son of Maria's Mon, sired in Maria's Mon's inaugural crop. Last year's Derby hopeful High Fly is also sired by Maria's Mon, along with this year's Derby hopeful Cause To Believe. Watchmon is another well known son of Maria's Mon. Wavering Monarch injects stamina into the pedigree of Strong Contender, having himself placed second in the 1983 Grade 1 Strub Stakes and third in the 1983 Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, both run at a mile and a quarter at Santa Anita Park. Strong Contender's maternal second sire is Dynaformer, from the Turn-To sire line. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Dynaformer's progeny is 8.35 furlongs, a little better than average. Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, places Dynaformer in the "Balanced Speed" category (for sires), the third of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Dynaformer, a son of turf champion Roberto, is known as a prodigious sire of turf specialists, but Dynaformer has also sired Dynever, Perfect Drift, and Mystery Giver, three superior dirt runners. Strong Contender looks to have a pedigree tailor-made for the new synthetic (Polytrack) surface, well balanced with strong grass and stamina aptitudes. Update 1 John Ward has been bringing Strong Contender along slowly and although that portends well for his future, it is jeapordizing Strong Contender's chances of making the Kentucky Derby cut for Saturday, May 6. Even with the April 15 Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass third place finish under his belt, Strong Contender has only three lifetime starts and $75,000 in graded stakes earnings. In his debut in August of 2005, his only race as a 2-year-old, Strong Contender easily defeated an Arlington Park maiden allowance field. It would be more than six months until Strong Contender returned to the track for a first-level allowance (one mile) at Gulfstream Park, and again he won easily, this time defeating Storm Treasure and registering a very impressive speed figure. Another seven and a half weeks passed before Strong Contender took to the track for the Toyota Blue Grass. At a minimum Strong Contender needed a second place finish in the Blue Grass to gain a Derby berth. As luck would have it, he ran into a buzz saw by the name of Sinister Minister, and still managed to capture third. The only remaining Kentucky Derby preps (as of April 18) are the Grade 2 Lexington (Keeneland) and the Grade 3 Withers (Aqueduct). The ball is in John Ward's and Strong Contender's court. STORM TREASURE Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.20. The sire of Storm Treasure is Storm Boot, a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is 7.58 furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. Storm Treasure's sire Storm Boot owns a Dosage Index of 2.40 and is influenced on the paternal side by the Northern Dancer and Secretariat/Bold Ruler lines, and on the dam side by the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native and Princequillo lines. Along with Storm Treasure, accomplished sons and daughters of Storm Boot include Hurricane Bertie, Night Patrol, and Show Boot. The sire of Storm Treasure's dam Boogie Beach Blues is Cure The Blues. Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, places Cure the Blues in the "Intermediate Speed" category (for sires), the second of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Cure the Blues is the sire of American Chance, Bedroom Blues, Stop Traffic, Dat You Miz Blue, Incurable Optimist, Le Glorieux (GB), Pennine Ridge, and Proven Cure. As a broodmare sire in 2004 and 2005, Cure The Blues' performance was unspectacular bar success in turf stakes. Update 1 Storm Treasure was little more than an object in Sinister Minister's rear view mirror during the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Saturday, April 15. That said, Storm Treasure persevered to gain second and the graded stakes prize money that goes with it. The $150,000 payday increases the overall graded stakes earnings for Storm Treasure to $155,000, and places him on the bubble in the hunt for a Kentucky Derby berth. Viewing the glass as half-full, Storm Treasure defeated Strong Contender by 4 ½ lengths, Bluegrass Cat by 8 ½ lengths, and First Samurai by an astounding 21 ½ lengths in the Blue Grass. Storm Treasure turned the tables on Strong Contender, avenging a loss in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream Park in February. Storm Treasure needed three tries at the maiden allowance level before breaking through at Churchill Downs in the third and final start of his juvenile campaign. The Blue Grass is the third start of Storm Treasure's sophomore campaign, and it follows a sixth place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, beaten 17 lengths by Deputy Glitters. Storm Treasure is owned by Mike McCarty and trained by Steve Asmussen. SHOWING UP Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.31. The sire of Showing Up is Strategic Mission, a son of Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector is certainly one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as well as classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. Showing Up's sire Strategic Mission raced primarily on the grass and has only three foals racing in 2006, Showing Up by far the most successful. The sire of Showing Up's dam Miss Alethia is T. V. Commercial. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) in North American open stakes on dirt for the progeny of T. V. Commercial is less than 7 ½ furlongs, a very weak figure. As a broodmare sire in 2005, T. V. Commercial was rated as "Balanced Speed" by Dr. Steve Roman, pedigree expert. Update 1 Showing Up has the fewest starts (3) of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls. After breaking his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park, Showing Up tackled first-level allowance conditions and stopped the clock in a scintillating 1:34.05 for one mile. Showing Up set a Gulfstream Park track record for the mile in the process. Only days earlier Bandini (2005 Blue Grass Stakes winner) set a Gulfstream Park track record for one mile in at 1:34.19, and other Gulfstream Park track records have fallen as well during the 2006 meet. Biased or not, the record setting effort by Showing Up is not to be discounted, as he defeated several highly regarded colts including Chatain, Big Lover, and Flanders Fields. With a brief but rich resume Showing Up made his way to Keeneland for the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes, Saturday, April 22. Showing Up settled fifth on the backstretch, content to stalk the leaders from a comfortable position. Meanwhile, Gotham winner Like Now thrust and parried with Fast Parade on the lead. Showing Up continued to make steady progress, and as as Like Now turned for home Showing Up improved his position to third while on the inside. Rider Cornelius Velazquez eased out Showing Up four wide entering the stretch and accelerated to get past Like Now and long shot Bear Character in deep stretch and extended his lead all the way to the finish. Showing Up got the 1 1/16 miles of the Lexington on a moist, "sticky" main course rated fast in 1:46.42, a good time but not outstanding. For the victory Showing Up earned $201,500, more than enough to secure a berth for the Kentucky Derby. A repeat of his Lexington performance will not get Showing Up a Derby victory, but with only three lifetime starts Showing Up is still eligible to improve. MISTER TRIESTER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 4.33. The sire of Mister Triester is Old Trieste, a son of A. P. Indy. This makes Mister Triester a half-brother to the hot Derby prospect Sinister Minister. Old Trieste died in early 2003 of acute laminitis, the same year he ranked second on the North American freshman sire list. From three crops to race Old Trieste sired Breeders Cup 2005 Sprint winner Silver Train, G1SW Minister Eric, and 4-time 2005 SW Mr. Trieste. Old Trieste finished 10th in the 1998 Kentucky Derby (won by Real Quiet) after setting the pace for one mile. The sire of Old Trieste, and grandsire of Mister Triester & Sinister Minister, is A. P. Indy. A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. Some of the illustrious sons & daughters of A. P. Indy are A. P. Warrior, Teammate, Sweet Symphony, Congrats, Mineshaft, Suave, Aptitude, Seeking the Glory, and Sweet Symphony. Mister Triester's broodmare sire is Prospector's Music, a son of Mr. Prospector. As a matter of fact, Mister Triester's dam Scatter The Crowd is inbred on both sides to the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native Line, and that spells S-P-E-E-D. It does not spell D-E-R-B-Y. Update 2 The feature race on opening day, Saturday, April 29, for Churchill Downs was the $100,000 Derby Trial featuring Kentucky Derby hopefuls Mister Triester and Dawn Of War, as well as the promising Protagonus and the speedy Noonmark. The connections of Mister Triester made it known the chestnut son of Old Trieste needed a standout race to convince them he should be entered in the Derby one week hence. Instead, Mister Triester turned in a professional, competent race, finishing third a little more than two lengths behind the surprise winner Record (Bob Baffert). It wasn't enough to convince trainer Warren Stute and owner B. Wayne Hughes the Derby was in reach for Mister Triester, and they made the right decision. The Preakness is a much more realistic proposition. The Derby Trial proved disappointing for Dawn Of War (fourth), Noonmark (sixth), and Protagonus (pulled up) as well. The defections of Mister Triester and Dawn Of War from the list of Derby entries makes room for Seaside Retreat and Flashy Bull. Update 1 The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, April 8, contested at 1 1/8 miles, served as the eighth and best overall start for Mister Triester. Sweetnorthernsaint was the betting favorite, but it was Mister Triester who forced the issue early on, setting a determined and prolonged pace and continuing on well to the finish despite being passed by Sweetnorthernsaint in early stretch. Mister Triester held on for second, as Sweetnorthernsaint cruised to victory, finishing 9 ¼ lengths clear of Mister Triester. Among other notables, Cause to Believe ran third, a length back of Mister Triester, and My Golden Song finished a well-beaten seventh. With $112,000 in graded stakes earnings, and with several defections from the list of Derby contenders, Mister Triester finds himself 20th on the list of top 20 graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Trainer Glen Stute and owner B. W. Hughes had planned on entering their chestnut colt in the ungraded Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, Saturday, April 29, and it remains to be seen if they alter their plans. SEASIDE RETREAT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.33. The sire of Seaside Retreat is King Cugat, a son of Kingmambo. King Cugat has only two crops of racing age and Seaside Retreat is his chief earner to-date. King Cugat's sire Kingmambo has a rich tradition in turf breeding and racing alike. Kingmambo's dam, Miesque, captured the 1987 and 1988 runnings of the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Mile, run on grass. The sire of Miesque is the great turf stallion Nureyev. Kingmambo's sire, Mr. Prospector, has sired three Breeders' Cup winners: Eillo, in the 1984 Sprint; Gulch, in the 1988 Sprint; and Rhythm, in the 1989 Juvenile. A Group I winner in England and France, Kingmambo has been represented by two of his offspring in the Breeders' Cup. King Cugat was 11th in the 2000 Breeders Cup Mile, and champion Lemon Drop Kid was fifth in the 1998 Juvenile, sixth in the 1999 Classic, and fifth in the 2000 Classic. The sire of Seaside Retreat's dam Shes Like Rio is Boundary. Boundary is descended from the Nothern Dancer sire line. Boundary won two Grade 3 sprints in 1994 (A Phenomenon Handicap at Saratoga and Roseben Handicap at Belmont). Pomeroy, a son of Boundary, won the 2005 A Phenomenon Handicap eleven years after his father won the race. Pomeroy is the most successful offspring of Boundary, a superior dirt sprinter on the New York circuit from 2003 to 2005. Update 1 The secret to understanding Seaside Retreat's chances in the Kentucky Derby lie in his pedigree, which is heavily slanted towards grass racing. In a parallel story, the now deceased With a City possessed a similar pedigree, weighted towards turf aptitude. With A City and Seaside Retreat combined for an unexpected, if not dramatic, one-two finish in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, March 25. There appears to be a measurable correlation between success on the turf and success on the new "all weather track" at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. How does all this relate to Seaside Retreat's chances in the Kentucky Derby? The Kentucky Derby is run on dirt, and not on grass, and not on an "all weather track," and considering Seaside Retreat followed up his Lane's End success with a sixth place finish, beaten 32 lengths by Sinister Minister in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Saturday, April 15, on dirt, things don't look too rosy for Seaside Retreat's Derby outlook. Seaside Retreat has shown promise racing on the Woodbine (Canada) dirt course, but against far weaker competition than he would see in Louisville on Saturday, May 6. FLASHY BULL Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Flashy Bull is Holy Bull, a son of Great Above. As a stallion, Holy Bull has been fairly consistent but not spectacular. From 2001 to 2004, he finished between 36th and 76th on the annual leading sires lists by earnings. Holy Bull suddenly entered the limelight in 2005, though, when his son Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby at very long odds. Despite this accomplishment, he has sired only three other Grade I winners: Pohave, Confessional and Macho Uno, the 2000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Dosage Index for Holy Bull is a very "un-classic like" 5.00, heavily slanted towards speed. Holy Bull was quite a phenomenon in the mid 1990s, winning no less than nine graded stakes from 1993 to 1994, including the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga in 1994, contested at the Derby distance of one and one-quarter miles. Generally he won by demoralizing his competition with speed, though, and in the 1994 Kentucky Derby those tactics failed badly as Holy Bull finished 12th as the big favorite. Update 1 By the eve of March 4, 2006, the fortunes of Flashy Bull appeared rosy, with a strong third earlier that day in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park. After being bothered in deep stretch by the unofficial winner Corinthian, Flashy Bull was placed second (by the stewards) behind the newly declared winner First Samurai. The Fountain Of Youth unofficial wining time of 1:49 for the 1 1/8 miles was considered fast, and Flashy Bull finished only 1 ¼ lengths behind the first horse to cross the wire. In late 2005 Flashy Bull had closed out his 2-year-old campaign with a strong second to Bluegrass Cat in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. So what happened since March 4 to take the steam out of Flashy Bull's Derby campaign? Flashy Bull relies on a high pressure stalking style, getting right behind a leader and commencing to "sweat him out." This style has generally served him well, but Saturday, April 1, in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, Flashy Bull was exposed against top level competition that included Barbaro (first), Sharp Humor (second), and Sunriver (third). Flashy Bull could get no closer than 6th some 3 ½ lengths from the lead, and faded to 7th, beaten nearly 11 lengths by Barbaro. The connections of Flashy Bull revealed days after the Florida Derby that Flashy Bull was suffering at the time from a case of the "thumps," an electrolyte imbalance, but there is no way to kow if that had a significant impact on his poor performance. With 9 overall starts, Flashy Bull probably doesn't have any new cards to play, but his consistency and hard work cannot be discounted. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here Copyright 2006 Horse-Race-Handicapping.com