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THE KENTUCKY DERBY WATCH 2006 Updated May 6 PRIVATE SUBSCRIBER REPORT Click Here For Derby Computer Analysis Click Here For National Handicapping Report The Breeders Cup 2007 Edition With Patented Computer Analysis And Handicapping Commentary For The Entire Breeders Cup Card And $100 BANKROLL Breeders Cup Plays From Horse Race Handicapping.com For Information Click Here Sign Up For Free HRH Racing Digest Click Here CLICK ON A NAME TO VIEW PROFILE (THEN CLICK "BACK" ON YOUR BROWSER TOOLBAR) A. P. WARRIOR ACHILLES OF TROY (withdrawn) BARBARO BLUEGRASS CAT BOB AND JOHN BROTHER DEREK CAUSE TO BELIEVE CORINTHIAN (withdrawn) DEPUTY GLITTERS DISCREET CAT (withdrawn) FIRST SAMURAI (withdrawn) FLASHY BULL JAZIL KEYED ENTRY LAWYER RON LIKE NOW (withdrawn) MISTER TRIESTER (withdrawn) POINT DETERMINED PRIVATE VOW RED RAYMOND (insufficient graded earnings) SEASIDE RETREAT SHARP HUMOR SHOWING UP SINISTER MINISTER STORM TREASURE STRONG CONTENDER (insufficient graded earnings) STEPPENWOLFER STEVIE WONDERBOY (withdrawn) SUNRIVER (insufficient graded earnings) SUPERFLY (withdrawn) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT WITH A CITY (euthanized) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.33. Sweetnorthernsaint is a son of Sweetsouthernsaint, and the sire of Sweetsouthernsaint is Saint Ballado. Saint Ballado is the sire of Sunriver, third place finisher in the Florida Derby, April 1. Saint Ballado is also the sire of 2005 Breeders Cup Classic winner Saint Liam and the champion mare Ashado. Sweetsouthernsaint hails from the sire line of Turn-To. The paternal line of Sweetnorthernsaint includes Halo, the sire of Saint Ballado. Halo is in the category of "Classic" Chef-de-Race, one of North America's finest sires. He contributes a potent blend of speed and stamina to the pedigree of Sweetnorthernsaint . Halo is the sire of classic winners Sunny's Halo and Sunday Silence. The sire of Sweetnorthernsaint's dam Ice Beauty is Waquoit. Waquoit is heavily influenced by excellent grass pedigrees including Relaunch, In Reality, Grey Dawn, Herbager, and Graustark. In 2006, the sons and daughters of Waquoit performed extremely well on dirt surfaces as well. Herbager provides a positive stamina influence on both the maternal and paternal sides of Sweetnorthernsaint. Update 1 The map to the Kentucky Derby that Sweetnorthernsaint is following parallels the journey of his handler, Michael Trombetta. The 39-year-old Trombetta has been training horses for going on twenty years now and he has spent most of those years based in Maryland and Virginia. Not coincidentally, Sweetnorthernsaint made his debut at Colonial Downs in Virginia and moved on to Laurel in Maryland for his next race. Sweetnorthernsaint finished 12th in a field of 14 at Colonial Downs, but all racing at Colonial is on the turf and the race had little meaning for the future of Sweetnorthernsaint. His Laurel race hinted at what was to come, as he won a $40,000 maiden claimer by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his third race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, stopping the watch at 1:09 for the six furlongs. His first stakes was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by an ever widening 10 lengths. Now it was time for a graded stakes, and Trombetta readied his charge for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Here Sweetnorthernsaint faced off with fellow Derby aspirants Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry, but it was a 36 to 1 outsider by the name of Like Now who stole the spotlight from the principals. Sweetnorthernsaint availed himself nicely, though, traveling 3-wide the entire race and persevering to a hard earned third place finish, less than a length beaten by the winner Like Now, and only ½ length shy of runner-up Keyed Entry. No one knew how much the Gotham took out of Sweetnorthernsaint, but three weeks later he climbed back in the ring to take on Cause To Believe and My Golden Song in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, with $500,000 in prize money at stake. Sweetnorthernsaint needed to finish second or better to earn enough to secure a position in the top 20 graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Sweetnorthernsaint cruised to victory in the Illinois Derby, finishing 9 ¼ lengths clear of runner-up and pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe ran third, another length back, and My Golden Song finished a well-beaten seventh. Not only did Sweetnorthernsaint capture the lion's share of the purse money, but he seemed to levitate to another level in the Illinois Derby. Next stop, Louisville. JAZIL Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Jazil is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire of Mr. Prospector is Raise A Native. The sire of Jazil's dam Better Than Honour is Deputy Minister, and the sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Jazil is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Bob And John, Red Raymond, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Jazil is a half-brother to Bob And John, recent winner of the 2006 Wood Memorial. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Northern Dancer represents the sire line of Jazil's damsire Better Than Honour, and Northern Dancer also represents the sire line of Storm Cat, one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico , as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Jazil's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a routine figure and not exceptional. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Jazil's maternal granddam is Blush With Pride, owner of an outstanding Dosage Index of 1.71. Blush With Pride won four graded stakes in her time, including the 1982 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Santa Susana Stakes. The pedigree of Blush With Pride is rich with stamina and provides a formidable balance of stamina and speed to the overall pedigree of Jazil, distinguishing Jazil from his half-brother Bob And John. Update 1 Jazil is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, one time assistant to D. Wayne Lukas, and the U.S. trainer for Darley Stables, the North American arm of Godolphin Stables, Inc. McLaughlin knew he had something special when Jazil closed from 18 lengths off the pace to get within a nose of the winner Steppenwolfer in a seven furlong maiden allowance at Aqueduct in November of 2005. A common refrain began appearing in the comment line of the Daily Racing Form for a Jazil race: "fast finish outside." After the November near miss, Jazil defeated a maiden allowance field, this time at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct in a race transferred to the outer dirt course from the turf. Jazil's next race was four months later, his 2006 debut, back on the dirt again in a first-level allowance route of ground at Gulfstream Park. Jazil faced off with up-and-comers Corinthian and High Blues, racing closer to the pace this time, taking the lead in the stretch, and finishing second after being outfinished by Corinthian. A month later Jazil got his first taste of graded stakes competition in the Fountain of Youth, a prep for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. In the Fountain of Youth, Jazil's late run never materialized, and Jazil finished seventh beaten 7 ¼ lengths by the unofficial winner Corinthian. With a very good colt on his hands and no graded stakes earnings, McLaughlin pointed Jazil towards the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. On the morning of the Wood, Saturday, April 8, the connections of Jazil must have been discouraged by the persistent showers that rendered the track sloppy, but if Jazil was to earn any graded stakes prize money he simply had to run. A deeep closer, Jazil was placed at an immediate disadvantage on the sloppy surface, and true to form he broke well back of the leaders, 13 ½ lengths back at the quarter-mile marker, and then he commenced his rally, determined, ground saving, and by mid-stretch he had pulled to within 7 lengths of the leader Bob And John, and when Bob And John crossed the wire Jazil had closed the gap to 1 ½ lengths. From the Daily Racing Form chart recap of the Wood: " Jazil ... rallied ... angled outside ... was coming outside fast at the finish." Perhaps it was McLaughlin's expert preparation and patience, perhaps it was the the influence of stamina and turf aptitude (turf aptitude often translates to off track performance), perhaps it was the three-way pace duel between Keyed Entry, Marco's Tale and Bob And John, or perhaps it was all of the above, but Jazil put together a rousing rally that carried him from the cheap seats all the way to a second place finish in the Wood, only 1 ½ lengths shy of the winner Bob And John. As a result Jazil earned his connections $150,000 in graded stakes prize money, and a possible ticket to the Kentucky Derby on May 6. Lightly raced with six overall starts, and fresh off his Wood performance, Jazil could well be peaking at the perfect moment in time, and he may be the best alternative to Brother Derek in the Derby. POINT DETERMINED Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Point Determined is sired by Point Given, a son of Thunder Gulch. The sire line of Point Given is Raise A Native. The sire of Point Determined 's dam Merengue is Broad Brush, and the sire line of Broad Brush is Domino. The first year at stud for Point Given was 2002, and Point Determined is now the leading money earner among his progeny. Broad Brush, the maternal grandsire of Point Determined, was the leading North America sire of 1994, and he sired Concern, winner of the 1994 Breeders Cup Classic, interestingly enough run at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby. Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, recently made Broad Brush a "Chef-de-Race" with an Intermediate-Classic designation, meaning he ranks among the better North American sires. Update 2 Point Determined punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a determined runner-up finish to probable Derby favorite Brother Derek in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Although Point Determined finished within 3 ¼ lengths of Brother Derek, onlookers had the impression the margin could have been as big as Brother Derek's jockey Alex Solis wanted it to be. Brother Derek set every fraction and threw a 24 second quarter at the field from the six furlong mark to the one mile mark, and it was all over but for the shouting. The final time of the race for the winner was an impressive 1:48 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. With only six lifetime starts now, Point Determined is still eligible to improve by the first Saturday in May, but he is going to have to come a long way to get past his nemesis Brother Derek. Update 1 Point Determined has five lifetime starts, three of them in 2006. The most recent was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Saturday, March 18. The San Felipe marked the return to championship form of the talented A. P. Warrior, but Point Determined challenged for the win in deep stretch, eventually settling for a hard fought second, one-half length back of the winner (A. P. Warrior). I witnessed the San Felipe and was impressed with the fighting spirit of Point Determined. With his first graded stakes earnings safely in his pocket, Point Determined is officially on the Derby trail. Next up for Point Determined is the Santa Anita Derby, April 8, at Santa Anita Park. The Santa Anita Derby is going to be a premier Kentucky Derby prep in 2006, hosting the talented Brother Derek, A. P. Warrior, and Point Determined. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. DISCREET CAT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.67. Discreet Cat is sired by Forestry, a son of Storm Cat. The sire line of Forestry is Northern Dancer. The sire of Discreet Cat's dam Pretty Discreet is Private Account, and the sire line of Private Account is Damascus. Storm Cat, the paternal grandsire of Discreet Cat, is one of the most successful sires in recent history. His progeny include an amazing 89 graded stakes winners, and that list is still growing. Cat Thief is Storm Cat's number one earner to-date at just under $4 million. Despite this sterling and prolific record, Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. On the dam side, maternal grandsire Private Account contributes an overall AWD of 8.03 furlongs (for North American open stakes ), a fairly pedestrian figure, although the figure for 2006 alone was a more promising 8.66. Pretty Discreet, the dam of Discreet Cat, won the 1995 Grade 1 Alabama. Pretty Discreet has also produced multiple stakes winner Pretty Wild. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Update 2 Godolphin announced Tuesday, April 18, Discreet Cat will bypass the entire Triple Crown series. Simon Crisford, Godolphin racing manager, pointed out that Discreet Cat is still very young and inexperienced, and will not reach three years of age until May, and these considerations weighed heavily in the decision. Discreet Cat will be pointed towards important races later in the 2006 campaign. Update 1 What exactly do we know about Discreet Cat? We know he defeated Superfly (Nick Zito) in his very first race, a maiden allowance at Saratoga, August 27, 2005, clocking in at a cool 1:09.76 for six furlongs, 3 ½ lengths clear of Superfly, and double-digit lengths ahead of the third place finisher. We know that within weeks of his inaugural performance, Discreet Cat was sold by Joyce Robsham to Godolphin Racing, Inc. We know that in his March 9, 2006 debut for Godolphin, Discreet Cat won the one mile Areej Trophy and did it easily, reaching the wire in 1:35.91. And now we know that Discreet Cat triumphed on the world stage in winning the $2 million U.E.A. Derby in Dubai, March 25, getting a mile and an eighth in 1:48.59. We also know the regular rider for Discreet Cat is the talented and flamboyant Frankie Dettori, and we know Discreet Cat is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. We know one more thing, that on March 25, 2006, Discreet Cat vaulted to the top of the graded earnings list for Kentucky Derby nominees, at a cool $1.2 million, not bad for a day's work. CAUSE TO BELIEVE Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Cause to Believe is sired by Maria's Mon, a son of Wavering Monarch. The sire line of Maria's Mon is Raise A Native. The sire of Cause to Believe's dam Imaginary Cat is Storm Cat, and the sire line of Storm Cat is Northern Dancer. The 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos is a son of Maria's Mon, interestingly enough sired in the inaugural crop of Maria's Mon. Last year's Derby hopeful High Fly was also sired by Maria's Mon. On the dam side, Storm Cat is a prolific and successful sire, however Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. Of course, Storm Cat is the maternal grandsire of Cause to Believe, contributing one-fourth of the overall pedigree to Cause to Believe. I f you are one of the millions of racing fans who enjoy thorough, professional race writing and analysis, you want to consider the popular new internet handicapping service The Premier Selection Plus. Replete with selections, analysis, wager recommendations, scratches, results and live updates the The Premier Selection Plus is waiting in your email inbox every Friday night with Saturday's handicapping report. It's only $14.99 for a full month of Saturdays, and you get 5 Saturdays, not 4. We email your order confirmation within 24 hours and also send you a complimentary copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For the 21st Century," by Horse-Race-Handicapping.com founder and internet handicapping professional Jim Lambert. Then you check your email late Friday night and the fun starts. Try it now. For Special Offer click here Update 2 The Illinois Derby, April 8, at Hawthorne was to be the coming out party for Cause to Believe, winner of the Grade 3 El Camino at Bay Meadows and the California Derby at Golden Gate. Instead, Sweetnorthernsaint may have blown out the candles on Cause to Believe's Derby cake. Cause to Believe seemed to be biding his time in an inside stalking position, saving ground, but when the field turned for home he simply had no answer for Sweetnorthernsaint, or even the pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe held on for third, beaten 10 ¼ lengths by Sweetnorthernsaint, and one length shy of runner-up Mister Triester. It was another length and a quarter back to fourth place finisher Lewis Michael. By finishing third, Cause to Believe was able to add $55,000 to his graded stakes earnings earnings, bringing his total graded stakes earnings to $192,500. This will probably be enough to punch a ticket to Louisville, but Cause to Believe will have to pick up his game to handle the added distance of the Kentucky Derby. Update 1 Cause to Believe is handled by the prolific winning trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and has already accomplished something not done before. Cause to Believe won both the Grade 3 El Camino at Bay Meadows and the California Derby at Golden Gate. These are the two Northern California preps for the Kentucky Derby. The first six races for Cause to Believe were all in his 2-year-old campaign and five of these were sprints, four of them at Golden Gate. He raced at a mile in the Bay Meadows Juvenile in October 2005. Cause to Believe won the Bay Meadows Juvenile and compiled three wins and two places in the five sprints. His first real test came in his 3-year-old debut, the San Miguel Stakes at Santa Anita, where he broke towards the rear of the pack and closed strongly to gain second behind Too Much Bling (Bob Baffert). Cause to Believe then won his first start in a graded stakes, the Grade 3 El Camino, defeating a fairly talented cast of characters that included Objective, A. P. Warrior (struggling at the time), and Wanna Runner. As if to answer the question, "Was the El Camino a fluke?", Cause to Believe thoroughly dominated the California Derby at Golden Gate. True, the field in the California was only five strong and not comparable to the strength of the higher profile Southern California preps, but what are you gonna do? He won and he won easily. Hollendorfer has indicated Cause to Believe will next race in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, April 8. WITH A CITY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.27. With a City is a son of City Zip, the #1 freshman sire of winners for 2005. His pedigree is heavily slanted towards speed. The average distance raced for his progeny is just over six furlongs, and the average winning distance is 6.3 furlongs. During his career, City Zip defeated Breeders Cup Sprint champion Speighstown in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga, a six furlong sprint. The pedigree of City Zip indicates there is a fair balance of sprint and classic distance aptitudes, and this is evidenced in 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, a half-brother to City Zip. The sire of City Zip is Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector) and the progeny of Carson City are even more slanted towards speed. On With a City's maternal side, the damsire With Approval, a son of Caro, injects stamina into the pedigree of With a City, but it appears to be turf stamina primarily. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) in North American open stakes on turf for the progeny of With Approval is over 9 furlongs, an indicator of above average endurance. However, the AWD for dirt stakes is less than 8 furlongs (less than one mile), a very common figure. On a footnote, the dirt AWD for progeny of With Approval is computed from less than five actual stakes races, which illustrates that the sons & daughters of With Approval do not find themselves in open stakes on the dirt very often. Update 3 With A City was euthanized early Sunday, April 23, several days after being stricken with an as yet undetermined illness. Update 2 The connections of With A City entered their colt a year too early and in the wrong race. With a new polytrack surface being installed during the off season, Keeneland will play host to the first Blue Grass Stakes ever to be run on polytrack in April of 2007. With A City would find the circumstances much less hostile than he did April 15, 2006 at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. On the authentic dirt surface, With A City finished thirteenth in a thirteen horse field, beaten over 50 lengths, and that is downright embarrassing. Amazingly, With A City has already punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his Lane's End triumph on the Turfway polytrack. His connections would be wise to take heed from the Arkansas Derby experience and quietly withdraw from the proceedings. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & THE KENTUCKY DERBY IS MAY 6 Full analysis and wager recommendations for all the big stakes races every Saturday at Pimlico, as well as Churchill Downs, and other major tracks are available from Horse-Race-Handicapping.com . You get 5 Saturday handicapping reports for only $14.99, and now is the time to do it with the Kentucky Derby around the corner. We'll also throw in a copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," a $21.99 value, FREE of charge. Click here to order 5 Saturday issues of the Premier Selection Plus handicapping report and get your free ebook. Update 1 I dusted off my copy of the July 23, 2005 Daily Racing Form, and flipped the pages until I found race 10 for Calder, and stared at the page. It was a six panel sprint on the dirt to be run under starter allowance conditions. A nondescript field of seven 2-year-olds stared back at me. The eventual winner, Beit's Bridge, had two prior races, a win in a maiden claiming sprint at Calder and a 5th place finish under starter allowance conditions, also at Calder. The eventual second place finisher, Suave Jazz, had won his maiden claiming debut at Calder. Suave Jazz has gone on to win a little over $16,000 in 2006. The fifth place finisher in the July 23 starter allowance was a 2-year-old by the name of With a City, losing by nearly 10 lengths as the betting favorite. That is how things were going for With a City early in his career. It's not all bad. He won his debut easily, a maiden claiming sprint at Calder. He finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, in two restricted stakes for Florida-breds at Calder, losing to In Summation in both races by a combined 19 ½ lengths. With a City managed to win twice on the turf at Calder, and herein lies the clue to his dramatic victory in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, March 25. There appears to be a mild correlation between success on the turf and success on the new "all weather track" at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. Why is this? Perhaps it is the "spongy" composition of the surface, that provides a buffer similar to the natural buffer that grass provides. Also, we know that the pedigree of With a City is influenced by a great source of turf aptitude, his maternal grandsire With Approval. And finally, With a City tried to give us a hint in the Battaglia at Turfway Park, finishing 8th but only four lengths back of the winner (Laity). What does all this mean for With a City's chances in the Kentucky Derby? Not much. The last time I looked, the Derby was run on dirt, and not on grass, and not on an "all weather track." The polytracks are coming, though, in California, and this is going to turn the handicapping & breeding industries topsy-turvy. None of the old rules will apply, in California anyway. ACHILLES OF TROY Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.67. Notebook, now deceased, is the sire of Achilles of Troy, and did his best running at one mile. Notebook sired 44 stakes winners, including the filly Spoken Fur (winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in 2003) and the superior sprinter Delaware Township. Notebook is the son of Well Decorated, and represents one of the last successful lines of the Bold Ruler sires. Update 3 It may be time to stick a fork in Achilles of Troy, because he might be done. Vanned off after a disappointing fifth place finish in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday, March 18, and beaten more than seven lengths by upset winner Like Now (trained by Kiaran McLaughlin), the news could not be any worse for the connections of Achilles of Troy. Still without any graded stakes earnings, Achilles of Troy has a small mountain to climb to get back in the Derby picture. I suppose it is not an impossible task, but the outlook is bleak. First things first, let's see what kind of physical condition Achilles of Troy is in. Getting vanned off after a race is never a good sign. Even if Achilles of Troy recovers to do battle in the near future, it looks like the distance limitations passed on by his daddy Notebook will hamper any remaining Kentucky Derby aspirations. Update 2 To my surprise Jennifer Pederson and Paraneck Stable parted ways after a five-year relationship that seemed to be flourishing, on the track anyway. It has been reported that Pederson and the authorized agent of Paraneck, the impulsive Ernie Paragallo, were sometimes at odds over operational decisions. Most notably, Pederson did not want to run the star of the stable, Achilles of Troy, in the Count Fleet on January 7 at Aqueduct because it allowed for only nine days rest off of a maiden allowance victory December 29, 2005. Paragallo overruled Pederson, and Achilles of Troy went on to easily win not only the Count Fleet, but the Whirlaway on February 11. Pederson has been replaced, it was announced March 11, with the 47-year-old Frank Amonte, Jr., a one-time assistant trainer to Gary Contessa. This unexpected turn reminds me of George Steinbrenner firing Billy Martin, and I really don't know if it will make a difference for the Kentucky Derby aspirations of Achilles of Troy, and I don't know if it made a difference for the Yankees, either. Stay tuned to the soap opera for more developments. Oh, and by the way, last year Jennifer Pederson was arrested and held briefly for chasing an ex-employee around the barn with a pitchfork, so if you run across her at the salad bar, don't ask to borrow a fork. Update 1 Jennifer Pederson's patience is being rewarded as this colt has turned in back-to-back blockbuster performances at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway. A possible Achilles heel, though, is that the inner dirt course at the "Big A" is very forgiving for speedsters, while that other dirt course under the "Twin Spires" is not. Still, Achilles of Troy looks to be a superior athlete, and may be able to make the adjustment. Achilles of Troy will meet Hutcheson winner Keyed Entry and the Maryland based Sweetnorthernsaint head-on in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, March 18, at Aqueduct. The Gotham is the first graded stakes race for Achilles of Troy. BLUEGRASS CAT Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.80. Bluegrass Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who ranked 11th in earnings on the 2005 North American Leading Sires list, and is one of the world's top sires. Storm Cat is also the broodmare sire of 2006 Juvenile Filly c hampion Folklore. Storm Cat is such a prolific and successful sire, it is almost unfair to cite weaknesses. However, Storm Cat's progeny are generally not dominant at classic distances. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is 7.58 furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender. This would tend to limit, by implication, Bluegrass Cat at the classic distances, such as the one and one-quarter miles of the Kentucky Derby. Update 3 Sinister Minister altered in an instant the expectations of several Kentucky Derby contenders on Saturday, April 15 in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Bluegrass Cat is on that list, and after finishing fourth, more than 21 lengths to the worse of Sinister Minister, it is gut check time for Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, and the WinStar Farm. Bluegrass Cat has won four of seven overall starts, including two graded stakes victories, and he has amassed $312,980 in graded stakes earnings. The problem is the graded stakes wins were both as a juvenile, he was beaten in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby by Deputy Glitters, after purportedly throwing a shoe at a crucial moment, and there is no ready excuse in the Blue Grass. Keeneland is known for a speed bias, but a speed bias does not get you beat by 21 lengths if you are a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. The bottom line, Bluegrass Cat has earned a berth to the Derby, and he is almost certainly not good enough to win it. I f you are one of the millions of racing fans who enjoy thorough, professional race writing and analysis, you want to consider the popular new internet handicapping service The Premier Selection Plus. Replete with selections, analysis, wager recommendations, scratches, results and live updates the The Premier Selection Plus is waiting in your email inbox every Friday night with Saturday's handicapping report. It's only $14.99 for a full month of Saturdays, and you get 5 Saturdays, not 4. We email your order confirmation within 24 hours and also send you a complimentary copy of the new ebook "Horse Race Handicapping For the 21st Century," by Horse-Race-Handicapping.com founder and internet handicapping professional Jim Lambert. Then you check your email late Friday night and the fun starts. Try it now. For Special Offer click here Update 2 Bluegrass Cat struggled to defeat Deputy Glitters (trained by Thomas Albertrani) in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February and was beaten by Deputy Glitters in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday, March 18. You could have gotten 63 to 1 on Deputy Glitters in the Sam F. Davis, and 8 to 1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bluegrass Cat is taking a circuitous route to the Kentucky Derby and needs to race on the major circuit soon, no disrespect to the good folks at Tampa Bay Downs. Update 1 Todd Pletcher's Derby hopeful is doing all that has been asked of him to-date. Saturday, February 18, Bluegrass Cat set a stakes record in winning the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. He is being pointed towards the Tampa Bay Derby in March. He will probably win given his talent and propensity to ration his considerable speed effectively. If I don't sound too excited, it's just that I am cautiously reserved about the chances of Bluegrass Cat to take the Kentucky Derby. Setting a stakes record at Tampa Bay Downs is not the stuff of legend, and Cat was four-fifths off the track record. Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner, Sun King, although he has turned into a nice horse, flopped at the Derby, finishing fifteenth (ouch). Make no mistake, though, Todd Pletcher will not place Bluegrass Cat in a position where he will be an abject failure. My gut feeling is that the Cat is an exotics play at best for the first Saturday in May. BROTHER DEREK Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 2.33. Brother Derek is sired by California sire Benchmark, a son of Alydar. Benchmark has generally outperformed the other better known sons of Alydar as a sire, including Alysheba, Strike the Gold, and Criminal Type. Benchmark captured three Grade 2 events in 1997: the Goodwood, the Del Mar Breeders Cup, and the San Bernardino. The dam of Brother Derek is the unraced Miss Soft Cell, who foaled the stakes winner Don'tsellmeshort, a full brother to Brother Derek. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) in North American open stakes for the progeny of Benchmark is 8.56 furlongs, certainly a positive indicator. And the AWD in open stakes for progeny of Brother Derek's maternal grandsire Siyah Kalem is 8.38 furlongs. Brother Derek looks to have a classic pedigree by any standards. Update 3 Sometimes numbers relay a story better than words. For example, the numbers 23.60, 46.59, 1:11.21, 1:35.39, and 1:48.00 tell you everything you need to know about the Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Brother Derek set every one of those fractions, and in doing so stamped himself the undeniable pre-Derby favorite. Take a closer at those numbers. The difference between 1:11.21 and 1:35.39 represents the 24 second quarter Brother Derek threw at the rest of the field from the six furlong marker to the mile marker. Now look at the final two numbers, 1:35.39 and 1:48.00. They represent the 12 3/5 seconds Brother Derek took to "cruise" the final eighth of a mile. Brother Derek was actually geared down by rider Solis for most of the final eighth. Now take a look at the last number, 1:48.00. That is how long it took Brother Derek to negotiate the entire 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. That is a demoralizing number for the rest of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Speaking of hope, is there any for the other 19 colts who will take on Brother Derek in Louisville? The answer is yes, despite Brother Derek's monster performance in the Santa Anita Derby. Brother Derek has yet to face a field in 2006 which challenged him in the early stages of a race. Expect that to change dramatically on Saturday, May 6. Also, the large fields of the modern day Kentucky Derby have the effect of transforming the spacious Churchill Downs main course into a "bull ring," particularly entering and exiting the turns. Of course, Brother Derek is not the only colt that has to negotiate through the harrowing traffic. All things considered, Brother Derek is going to be tough to beat in Louisville, but he has about a two in three chance of losing the race, even as the highest rated colt going in. Update 2 Brother Derek triumphed in the Grade 2 Santa Catalina Saturday, March 4, and he did it in a professional manner, patiently anticipating the cue from his rider Alex Solis that would be his signal to take control. Brother Derek did just that, taking control, and cruising to a definitive victory in just under 1:42 flat for the 1 1/16 miles on the main track at Santa Anita Park. He is ready for the Derby, right? Break out the bouquet of roses and the champagne glasses, right? Wrong! Derek is a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby, and came out of the Santa Catalina in good shape, with just a minor cut, but the late scratch of Bob Baffert's Wanna Runner created a pace void in the Santa Catalina. Latent Heat (Bobby Frankel) and Objective (Peter Miller) were left to contest the pace with Brother Derek, and Objective dropped back badly in the second turn, leaving Brother Derek very little resistance to deal with. Brother Derek is going to be more vulnerable at the mile and one-quarter Kentucky Derby distance, and there will be no shortage of pace pressure in the Derby, either. Brother Derek is one of the leading contenders right now, but I do not see a future with Brother Derek as Kentucky Derby champion. Update 1 Dan Hendricks is beloved in the Southern California region and beyond for his courage and clever wit. Hendricks is paralyzed from the waist down as a result of a motocross accident in the summer of 2004. A mere six weeks after the accident Hendricks returned to his Del Mar barn to resume training. Brother Derek would be his first Kentucky Derby starter. Fourth place finisher in the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile, Brother Derek was a mere footnote on the list of Derby hopefuls at that time. Brother Derek served notice seven weeks later (December 17, 2005) by winning the Hollywood Futurity. And in his 2006 campaign debut, Brother Derek defeated the two-year-old champion Stevie Wonderboy in the Grade 1 San Raphael at Santa Anita. Now Brother Derek is considered a leading contender and possible favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and who doth protest? Well, I do, as a matter of fact. Make no mistake, Brother Derek is a leading contender, but he has some limitations. His strength is a superior front-running style, and that style is tenuous at best in the Kentucky Derby. Also, the San Raphael set up like a training race for him as there was no other speed to think of. He could bide his time and save his strength for the stretch challenge sure to come from Stevie Wonderboy. But which Stevie Wonderboy showed up? Wonderboy was only days away from surgery to correct a condylar fracture and his performance was sub par, indicating to me he may have been suffering already. Andy Beyer awarded inflated speed figures to both Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy for the San Raphael, and when Beyer does that he renders his vaunted speed figures valueless. Brother Derek is probably at his best from one mile to one and one-sixteenth miles, and should he be challenged early in the Derby he will probably not be able to sustain his bid. BOB AND JOHN Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Bob And John is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire line of Seeking The Gold is Raise A Native. The sire of Bob And John' dam Minister's Melody is Deputy Minister, and the sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Bob And John is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Red Raymond, Jazil, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Northern Dancer represents the sire line of Bob And John's damsire Minister's Melody, and Northern Dancer also represents the sire line of Storm Cat, one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Bob And John's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a nondescript figure and not what you would like to see for a classic contender. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Update 2 No one can blame Bob And John for the Saturday morning showers that drenched the outer dirt course at Aqueduct, Saturday, April 8. Bob And John took the trip to New York from California to show the best of the East Coast his "A" game, and that's exactly what he did in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, sloppy track and all. Bob And John seemed to relish the off going as he sped effortlessly to the outside of the early leaders Keyed Entry and Marco's Tale, and commenced to hounding Keyed Entry all the way to the middle of the far turn, shaking loose of the rest of the field in the process. Rider Garrett Gomez asked for run from Bob And John in early stretch, and Bob And John responded and wore down Keyed Entry late, finishing with good energy to hold off the late closing Jazil for the victory. The final time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, in the slop, was 1:51.40. Bob And John got the final furlong in 14 seconds flat, not a strong figure, but good enough for the win. What are the implications of the victory? First and foremost, Bob And John earns $450,000 in graded stakes prize money to add on to the $140,370 he previously earned. That, in a nutshell, punches his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Second, the manner in which Bob And John fought and faced down Keyed Entry, Deputy Glitters, My Golden Song, and Greeley's Galaxy, and then held off the late charging Jazil, is a testimony to his talent, courage, and the preparation he received from handler Bob Baffert. Third, unless the track at Churchill Downs comes up sloppy on May 6, there is not much to project from his performance in the Wood to his anticipated performance in the Kentucky Derby. That is the nature of racing, but Bob And John is heading to Louisville, and getting there is half the battle. Update 1 Bob And John is trained by Bob Baffert, no stranger to the Kentucky Derby spotlight. It is worth mentioning that Bob Baffert has been amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Bob And John has been successful almost from the beginning, with three wins, one place, and two shows in seven starts heading into the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, at Santa Anita Park. We'll get back to the San Felipe in a moment. Bob And John has raced exclusively at the three major Southern California tracks, Del Mar, Hollywood Park, and Santa Anita. In just the second start of his inaugural campaign Bob And John served notice he was a talent to be reckoned with, ridden out in victory after toying with a maiden allowance field at Del Mar. Two months later, Bob And John met A. P. Warrior and Da Stoops in a talent laden first-level allowance, a two-turn mile, finishing second four lengths shy of the winner A. P. Warrior and a neck in front of stable mate Da Stoops. In the Real Quiet, three weeks later at Hollywood, Bob And John apparently won but was disqualified in a ridiculous steward's ruling and placed second behind the unofficial second place finisher Genre. Bob And John came in slightly exiting the far turn, momentarily impeding Genre, who was already beginning to back up and would eventually finish six lengths to the worse of Bob And John. In December, Bob And John met Kentucky Derby aspirant Brother Derek for the first time in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park. It was in the Futurity that Brother Derek stamped his name at the top of the short list of West Coast Derby hopefuls, while Bob And John was relegated to a quiet third place finish, beaten five lengths, but getting his first taste of graded stakes earnings. After reasserting himself by clearing first-level allowance conditions in January 2006, his 3-year-old debut, Bob And John turned his attention to the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, where rival Brother Derek was noticeably absent. Bob And John routed a questionable Sham field, nonetheless recording a healthy speed figure, and moved on to the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, also at Santa Anita. Now we can get back to the San Felipe. Bob And John received favoritism from the betting public, but failed to menace as he seemed one-paced the entire going, eventually working his way to a third place finish, but soundly beaten by the top two finishers, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined. I t is not that Bob And John digressed in the San Felipe, so much as A. P. Warrior (now trained by John Shirreffs, winning trainer of the 2005 Kentucky Derby) and Point Determined (another Baffert charge) moved forward. Point be told, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined both own pedigrees more in line with classic winners than does Bob And John. With this in mind, the outcome of the San Felipe is no surprise, but it sure seemed like a surprise to onlookers. Bob And John has amassed enough graded stakes earnings to gain an invitation to the big party on Saturday, May 6, but he has yet to show his 'A' game against top competition. His job is to make the San Felipe a distant memory, and he'll have his chance April 8, in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM* click here* STEPPENWOLFER Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.46. Steppenwolfer is sired by Aptitude, a son of A. P. Indy. The sire line of Aptitude is Bold Ruler. The sire of Steppenwolfer 's dam Wolfer is the South African-bred Wolf Power, and the sire line of Wolf Power is the Irish-bred Princequillo. The first year at stud for Aptitude is 2002 and Steppenwolfer is his chief earner to-date. A grandson of A. P. Indy, Steppenwolfer is bred on the sire line for the classics. On the dam side, the progeny of Wolf Power have an outstanding winning rate of 18% of open stakes at the classic distances from 9 ½ to 12 furlongs. Wolf Power is the sire of the dam (Ask Anita) of two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew. It is clear Steppenwolfer is bred to run all day, just like trainer Daniel Peitz has been trying to tell us. Reserve Your Triple Crown Special 2006 Edition Today You get ALL THREE TRIPLE CROWN RACES, The Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont. You get the patented Horse-Race-Handicapping.com computer analysis and Premier Selection Plus handicapping report, all for $19.99. Subscribers to Triple Crown Special 2005 won a net profit of $764. Order now and we email you a special link the day before each Triple Crown race, your privacy is always protected. For information click here. To order click here. Update 3 In the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, April 15, at Oaklawn Park, Robbie Albarado rode Steppenwolfer like his life depended on it. The stakes were high, a first or second place finish in the Arkansas Derby was needed to gain a berth in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Steppenwolfer customarily broke near the back of the pack, eleventh and about eleven lengths off the leader Lawyer Ron after the (first) quarter. Lawyer Ron wasted no time in accelerating to the lead, laying down the gauntlet early, and Steppenwolfer needed to respond. He did. Albarado began urging the gray/roan son of Aptitude almost from the get-go, and Steppenwolfer accepted the challenge. As Lawyer Ron polished off a sizzling (third) quarter to get six furlongs in 1:10 and 4/5, Steppenwolfer had improved to eighth, about 6 ½ lengths back of Lawyer Ron. Not to be understated, Steppenwolfer improved his position while Lawyer Ron was demoralizing the rest of the field. By the time Lawyer Ron reached the eighth pole the race was over for all intensive purposes, and Steppenwolfer kept working, now third, 3 lengths behind Private Vow and only 4 ½ lengths behind Lawyer Ron. By the time the winner crossed the wire, Steppenwolfer had put Private Vow away and remained 2 ¾ lengths shy of Lawyer Ron. A sterling performance earned Steppenwolfer $200,000 in graded stakes prize money, bringing his total graded earnings to $230,000, and that will punch his ticket to Louisville, Saturday, May 6, for the Kentucky Derby. Update 2 The weather was showery although the official track condition was fast, and Steppenwolfer overcame an outside post and a moisture laden track to finish a creditable third behind Lawyer Ron and Red Raymond in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 18. The paycheck was important for Steppenwolfer, representing his first graded stakes earnings to be applied towards the targeted Kentucky Derby berth in May. Daniel Peitz must be pleased with the progress of his big, rangy colt, and all systems are go for the next step, probably the Arkansas Derby. Update 1 Arkansas native Daniel Peitz was quoted shortly before the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park: "It looks like my horse can run all day." And he is right. All eyes were on Lawyer Ron in the one mile Southwest Stakes on February 25, and Lawyer Ron did not disappoint, controlling the race from gate to wire on a resistant dirt surface. Meanwhile, the eventual second place finisher Steppenwolfer rallied from ninth to second with a prolonged, determined, one might say relentless, rally to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner at the wire. It was apparent to all who witnessed the Southwest that had the race gone another eighth of a mile, Steppenwolfer would have won.