Sort It Out:  It doesn't seem right that this is Bob Baffert's only hope.  Finished 2nd in the Lexington on a sloppy surface.  Most of his success is against fellow New York breds.  This colt is no Smarty Jones.
Andromeda's Hero:  There's that man again, Mr. Zito, that is.  This colt finished 3rd behind Afleet Alex and Flower Alley in the Arkansas Derby.  That was the second time he lost to Flower Alley, one of the longshots in the Kentucky Derby.  Even with Zito in his corner, that's not a good recommendation.
Sun King: Finished a very willing 4th behind Bandini and High Limit in the Grade 1 Blue Grass.  Zito is Merlin the magician these days.  Wave your wand, Merlin, and who knows what will happen.  Post 3 is not a problem.
Noble Causeway:  Merlin is in the house once again.  This colt is scary - solid Dosage.Index, really big 2nd to stablemate High Fly in Grade 1 Florida Derby, eligible to improve off light schedule.  And did I mention Merlin?  Post 4 is fine.
Coin Silver: Victorious in the Grade 2 Lexington, yes.  But that was in the slop and heavily favored Rockport Harbor laid an egg that day.  But Todd Pletcher may disagree.  A tough call.
High Limit:   Bobby Frankel is used to getting top notice.  He is quoted as saying any one of ten horses could win the 2005 Kentucky Derby edition.  Believe him.  And this is clearly one of those ten.  He cannot be dismissed just because he lost to Bandini in the Blue Grass.  That was a very deep, talented field.  And he was victorious in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.  He can jump up and bite you.  Better not leave him out.
Flower Alley:  Was no match for the powerful Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby.  That exposed a lack of speed which will be his undoing against these.  I'm leaving him out.
Greater Good: Was merely an also-ran in the Arkansas Derby when well-beaten by Afleet Alex.  The only real positive is his late-running style which may land him in the trifecta or super.
Greeley's Galaxy:  Truly eye-popping in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby but exactly who were those horses chasing him.  That's the proverbial question.  He could be another Smarty Jones, but then again, maybe not.  I think he is very talented but he will be tested as never before in the Kentucky Derby. 
Giacomo:  Yet another Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby also-ran.  His only victory is a Maiden Allowance event at Santa Anita.
High Fly:  This is one of Zito's first-stringers, and deservedly so.  There are no kinks in the armor.  Capable of throwing a huge Beyer.  Has tactical speed and is bred to go long.  Trained by the hottest handler in the business bar none.  Powerful win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  Big chance from post 11.  
Afleet Alex:  An impressive four out of five in Graded Stakes races.  Granted, the Arkansas Derby field he destroyed was nowhere near as talented as this group.  Still, with the 12 post position and temperate pace, this colt might just shine under the Louisville sun.
Spanish Chestnut:  There is nothing here to meet the eye.  A brief dose of excitement for 6 or 7 furlongs, but no more.  Rabbit stew.
Wilko:  Frankly not very speedy.  Managed to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby, which appears to be a "key" race for second stringers.  Do I hear superfecta?
Bandini:  On any other day this colt would probably merit top billing.  The Pletcher charge defeated a very deep field in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland, and he did it in convincing fashion.  Bandini, meet Godzilla.  Godzilla, meet Bandini.  Who will stare down who?  This colt is for real.  Look for a very big effort in the Derby.  A minor negative is the 15 post.
Bellamy Road:  Have you ever met Godzilla?  Consider yourself introduced.  Am I kidding?  Well, he won his last two races by a combined 33 lengths, including a 17 length romp in the Gr. 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.  Oh, did I forget to mention, his trainer is Nick Zito, aka Merlin the magician.  The road to the roses goes through this fellow.  Make no mistake.  Should be able to negotiate post 16.
Don't Get Mad:  After his runaway win a week ago in the Derby Trial he is the horse of the moment.  But don't get mad when I tell you to don't get excited.  He threw in a clunker in the Santa Anita Derby.  He is a definite possible in the exotics, though.  Post 17 does not enhance chances.
Closing Argument: Do you watch Jeopardy?  The question to the answer "Closing Argument" is "What is the name of the horse that finished 3rd behind Bandini and High Limit in the Blue Grass Stakes?"  That alone raises my eyebrows, but then again, he was empty in the stretch.
Going Wild:  With deference to D. Wayne Lukas, this is a Hail Mary pass if ever there were one.  No reason to expect much against these.
Buzzards Bay: Jeff Mullins is one of the top handlers in California, and he has endured some embarrassment when some of his charges did time in the "penalty box" the night before races.  This is my longshot play, he could very well make the trifecta or even better with his late-running style and fine distance breeding.  Good odds are guaranteed because of the lackluster Santa Anita Derby key race.

OK, everybody, here it is, the Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com $100 Bankroll plays.

Picks: Bellamy Road (16) - High Fly (11) - Sun King (3) - Noble Causeway (4)  

2005 Kentucky Derby

Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Misses The Boat! 

$100 Bankroll Plays Returns $0.

$1 Trifecta Picks:

4 / 16 with 3 / 4 / 11 / 16 with 2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 11 / 12 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 20  ($48)

$1 Exacta Picks:

3 / 4 / 11 / 16 with 2 / 3 / 4 / 11 / 12 / 15 / 16 / 17   ($28)

$24 Win Pick:

4 ($24)

2005 Kentucky Derby Review
 
Giacomo, a son of Holy Bull, closes late to upset the apple cart.  Giacomo is owned by record producer Jerry Ross, trained by John Shirreffs, and was ridden to victory by Mike Smith.  Closing Argument places second at 71-1.  The shortest price to hit the boad is Afleet Alex at 9-2. 

Results and Payoffs:

For the Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Home Page  click here.

Back To Triple Crown Archives
 

You Are Visiting

Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

The Premier Online Handicapping Service