May 3, 2008

The Kentucky Derby 2008 Edition

A Service From
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com
Patented Computer Analysis For The 2008 Kentucky Derby
 FOR FAST OR GOOD TRACK CONDITION
 

May 3, 2008   134th  Kentucky Derby   1 1/4 Miles    Purse $2,000,000

Prg #

Horse

Track ML

Computer ML

  "You Can Quote Me" Comment

Computer Score

Computer Variant

Computer Rank

1

COOL COAL MAN

20-1

16-1

Expect Positive Bounce Today
Toss Out The Blue Grass

93

21

8

2

TALE OF EKATI

15-1

23-1

Never Say Never But I'm Starting To Think He's A Bit Overrated

87

38

11

3

ANAK NAKAL

30-1

33-1

His Graded Earnings
Were Earned As A Juvenile

78

48

18

4

COURT VISION

20-1

26-1

Consistent Sort Seems To
Lack Killer Instinct

85

45

12

5

EIGHT BELLES 15-1 35-1

A Filly Beating Other Fillies
Does Little For Me

76 37 20

6

Z FORTUNE

15-1

19-1

A Real Trooper But Everything Has
To Go Right To Have A Chance

90

13

9

7

BIG TRUCK 50-1 26-1 A Real Gutsy Performer On Dirt
Forget About The Blue Grass
85 36 12

8

VISIONAIRE

20-1

20-1

Scary To Leave Out Cold
Pedigree Wishy-Washy For Dirt

90

45

10

9

PYRO

6-1

9-2

A Major, Major Danger Now That He's Back On Favorite Surface

106

24

1

10

COLONEL JOHN

4-1

8-1

Wins All The Big Ones
And Working Great On Dirt

102

83

3

11

Z HUMOR

30-1

27-1

Another Who Did Most Of His
 Damage As A Juvenile

84

47

14

12

SMOOTH AIR

20-1

32-1

The Little Train That Could
Might Run Out Of Steam Today

80

24

17

13

BOB BLACK JACK 20-1 33-1 Cushion Track Or Dirt
He Won't Stay The Distance
78 87 18

14

MONBA

15-1

15-1

Could Surprise At A Price
All Healed Up And Feeling Good

94

54

6

15

ADRIANO

30-1

15-1

My Favorite Derby Long Shot
Improving And Bred To Handle Dirt

94

86

6

16

DENIS OF CORK

20-1

10-1

My Favorite Derby Rebound Horse
Fought Bias In Illinois Derby

98

38

5

17

COWBOY CAL

20-1

29-1

His Pedigree Says No To Dirt
A Probable Underlay

81

80

16

18

RECAPTURETHEGLORY

20-1

28-1

No Speed Bias Today
Comes Crashing Back To Earth

82

41

15

19

GAYEGO

15-1

8-1

Arkansas Derby Was No Accident
Look For An Honest Effort In Derby

102

52

3

20

BIG BROWN

3-1

9-2

Dominating Force On The Front End
Far Outside Post Is A Concern

106

47

1

www.Horse-Race-Handicapping.com                                   Picks:  9 - 20 - 10 - 19 - 16


Picks: Pyro  (9) - Big Brown (20) - Colonel John (10) - Gayego (19) - Denis Of Cork (16)  

We have added a new feature for you this year, the Computer Variant.  The Computer Variant (C.V.) ranges from 0 to 100.  The lower the number, the stronger the confidence in the Computer Score.  Conversely, the higher the number, the weaker the confidence in the Computer Score.  So if two horses have the same Computer Score of 88, but one horse has a C.V. of 36 and the other horse has a C.V. of 76, then the horse with a C.V. of 36 is more likely to run close to his Computer Score of 88, and the horse with the C.V. of 76 could run much worse or much better than his Computer Score.  For instance, a European import with no races on American soil will have a very high C.V. because he is an unknown quantity here in America.  But a horse with several route races over the Churchill Downs main course will have a low C.V. because he is a known quantity. 

We look to the Computer Score for the strength of a horse.  An average (typical) Computer Score is 90.
  We look to the Computer Variant for the variability of our Computer Score.   An average (typical) Computer Variant is 50.    

OK, everybody, here it is, the Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Kentucky Derby 2008 plays.


The Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs - Race 10 Wager Recommendation

For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$25 Win-Place 9 ($50)
$25 Win-Place 15 ($50)
$5 Exacta Box 7/9/15/16/19/20 ($150)
$5 Exacta 9/15/16 with 1/10/11 ($45)
$1 Trifecta 9/15 with ALL with 7/9/15/16 ($108)
$1 Superfecta 9 with ALL with 7/16 with 7/16 ($34)
Total Wagers $437

For "Lighter" Bettors
$10 Win-Place 9 ($20)
$5 Win-Place 15 ($10)
$2 Exacta Box 7/9/15/16/19/20 ($60)
$2 Exacta 9/15/16 with 1/10/11 ($18)
$1 Superfecta 9 with ALL with 7/16 with 7/16 ($34)
Total Wagers $142

For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$35 Place 9 ($35)
$25 Place 15 ($25)
Total Wagers $60

For "Power Ball" Bettors
$1 Superfecta 16 with ALL with 7/9 with 7/9 ($34)
Total Wagers $34


Here are the results of the 134th Kentucky Derby on May 3, 2008.

Prg # Horse Jockey Win Place Show

20

Big Brown Desormeaux K J

6.80

5.00

4.80

5

Eight Belles Saez G

 

10.60

6.40

16

Denis of Cork Borel C H

 

 

11.60

$2   Exacta  (20-5)  Paid $141.60
 
$2   Trifecta  (20-5-16)  Paid $3,445.60
 
$2   Superfecta  (20-5-16-2)  Paid $58,737.80


 

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