Patented Computer Analysis For
The 2008
Kentucky Derby
FOR FAST OR GOOD TRACK
CONDITION
|
May 3, 2008 134th
Kentucky Derby
1 1/4 Miles
Purse $2,000,000 |
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Track ML |
Computer ML |
"You Can Quote Me" Comment |
Computer Score |
Computer Variant |
Computer Rank |
|
1 |
COOL COAL MAN |
20-1 |
16-1 |
Expect
Positive Bounce Today
Toss Out The Blue Grass |
93 |
21 |
8 |
|
2 |
TALE OF EKATI |
15-1 |
23-1 |
Never
Say Never But I'm Starting To Think He's A Bit Overrated |
87 |
38 |
11 |
|
3 |
ANAK NAKAL |
30-1 |
33-1 |
His
Graded Earnings
Were Earned As A Juvenile |
78 |
48 |
18 |
|
4 |
COURT VISION |
20-1 |
26-1 |
Consistent Sort Seems To
Lack Killer Instinct |
85 |
45 |
12 |
|
5 |
EIGHT BELLES |
15-1 |
35-1 |
A Filly Beating Other
Fillies
Does Little For Me |
76 |
37 |
20 |
|
6 |
Z FORTUNE |
15-1 |
19-1 |
A Real
Trooper But Everything Has
To Go Right To Have A Chance |
90 |
13 |
9 |
|
7 |
BIG TRUCK |
50-1 |
26-1 |
A Real Gutsy Performer On Dirt
Forget About The Blue Grass |
85 |
36 |
12 |
|
8 |
VISIONAIRE |
20-1 |
20-1 |
Scary
To Leave Out Cold
Pedigree Wishy-Washy For Dirt |
90 |
45 |
10 |
|
9 |
PYRO |
6-1 |
9-2 |
A Major, Major Danger Now That He's Back On
Favorite Surface |
106 |
24 |
1 |
|
10 |
COLONEL JOHN |
4-1 |
8-1 |
Wins
All The Big Ones
And
Working Great On Dirt |
102 |
83 |
3 |
|
11 |
Z HUMOR |
30-1 |
27-1 |
Another
Who Did Most Of His
Damage As A Juvenile |
84 |
47 |
14 |
|
12 |
SMOOTH AIR |
20-1 |
32-1 |
The
Little Train That Could
Might Run Out Of Steam Today |
80 |
24 |
17 |
|
13 |
BOB BLACK JACK |
20-1 |
33-1 |
Cushion Track Or Dirt
He Won't Stay The Distance |
78 |
87 |
18 |
|
14 |
MONBA |
15-1 |
15-1 |
Could
Surprise At A Price
All Healed Up And Feeling Good |
94 |
54 |
6 |
|
15 |
ADRIANO |
30-1 |
15-1 |
My Favorite Derby Long Shot
Improving And
Bred To Handle Dirt |
94 |
86 |
6 |
|
16 |
DENIS OF CORK |
20-1 |
10-1 |
My Favorite Derby Rebound Horse
Fought Bias In Illinois Derby |
98 |
38 |
5 |
|
17 |
COWBOY CAL |
20-1 |
29-1 |
His Pedigree Says No To
Dirt
A
Probable Underlay |
81 |
80 |
16 |
|
18 |
RECAPTURETHEGLORY |
20-1 |
28-1 |
No
Speed Bias Today
Comes Crashing Back To Earth |
82 |
41 |
15 |
|
19 |
GAYEGO |
15-1 |
8-1 |
Arkansas Derby Was No Accident
Look For An Honest Effort In Derby |
102 |
52 |
3 |
|
20 |
BIG BROWN |
3-1 |
9-2 |
Dominating Force On The Front End
Far Outside Post Is A Concern |
106 |
47 |
1 |
Picks:
Pyro (9) -
Big Brown (20) - Colonel John (10)
-
Gayego (19) -
Denis Of Cork (16)
We have added a new feature for you this year, the
Computer Variant. The Computer
Variant (C.V.) ranges from 0 to 100. The lower the number,
the stronger the confidence in the Computer Score.
Conversely, the higher the number, the
weaker the confidence in the Computer Score. So if two
horses have the same Computer Score of 88, but one horse has a
C.V. of 36 and the other horse has a C.V. of 76, then the horse
with a C.V. of 36 is more likely to run close to his Computer
Score of 88, and the horse with the C.V. of 76 could run much
worse or much better than his Computer Score. For instance,
a European import with no races on American soil will have a very
high C.V. because he is an unknown quantity here in America.
But a horse with several route races over the Churchill Downs main
course will have a low C.V. because he is a known quantity.
We look to the
Computer Score for the strength of a
horse. An average (typical)
Computer Score
is 90.
We look to the
Computer Variant
for the variability of our
Computer Score.
An average (typical)
Computer Variant
is 50.
OK, everybody, here it is, the
Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Kentucky Derby 2008 plays.
|
The Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs - Race 10
Wager Recommendation |
|
For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$25 Win-Place 9 ($50)
$25 Win-Place 15 ($50)
$5 Exacta Box 7/9/15/16/19/20 ($150)
$5 Exacta 9/15/16 with 1/10/11 ($45)
$1 Trifecta 9/15 with ALL with 7/9/15/16 ($108)
$1
Superfecta 9 with ALL with 7/16 with
7/16 ($34)
Total Wagers $437 |
|
For "Lighter" Bettors
$10 Win-Place 9 ($20)
$5 Win-Place 15 ($10)
$2 Exacta Box 7/9/15/16/19/20 ($60)
$2 Exacta 9/15/16 with 1/10/11 ($18)
$1
Superfecta 9 with ALL with 7/16 with
7/16 ($34)
Total Wagers $142 |
|
For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$35 Place 9 ($35)
$25 Place 15 ($25)
Total Wagers $60 |
|
For "Power Ball" Bettors
$1
Superfecta 16 with ALL with 7/9 with
7/9 ($34)
Total Wagers $34 |
Here are the results of the 134th Kentucky
Derby on May 3, 2008.
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
20 |
Big Brown |
Desormeaux K J |
6.80 |
5.00 |
4.80 |
|
5 |
Eight Belles |
Saez G |
|
10.60 |
6.40 |
|
16 |
Denis of Cork |
Borel C H |
|
|
11.60 |
$2 Exacta (20-5) Paid
$141.60
$2 Trifecta
(20-5-16) Paid $3,445.60
$2 Superfecta
(20-5-16-2) Paid $58,737.80
Copyright 2008
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com |
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