Saturday March 8, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 9th at the Fair Grounds: Fair Grounds 9th (4:48)
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby 
1 1/16 Miles (Main Course) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $600,000
 

Prg #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Stevil	Castro E	Zito Nicholas P	15-1
2	My Pal Charlie	Leparoux J R	Stall Albert M Jr	20-1
3	Pyro	Bridgmohan S X	Asmussen Steven M	7-5
4	J Be K	Desormeaux K J	Asmussen Steven M	12-1
5	Unbridled Vicar	Lanerie C J	Geier Greg	20-1
6	Tale of Ekati	Prado E S	Tagg Barclay	7-2
7	Blackberry Road	Albarado R J	Carroll David	10-1
8	Yankee Bravo	Solis A	Gallagher Patrick	4-1
9	Majestic Warrior	Gomez G K	Mott William I	9-2

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 The Morning Line Odds For the 9th at Fair Grounds

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #7 (Blackberry Road),  #4 (J Be K), and #5 (Unbridled Vicar) are the Key value horses for our wagers. We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy. Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our value plays: #7 (Blackberry Road),  #4 (J Be K), and #5 (Unbridled Vicar).

 A Preview Of The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby  [Fair Grounds Race 9]

[#1] Stevil - Florida-based Stevil is a son of Maria’s Mon, the sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.  Monarchos won with one of the slowest Kentucky Derby times in the modern era.  Stevil’s pedigree indicates he may be not want to go longer than a mile, and he is a surprise entry in the Louisiana Derby by trainer Nick Zito.  Stevil is inexperienced, and he faces tremendous early pressure from J Be K, and then he has to deal with Blackberry Road, Tale Of Ekati, and Pyro in the lane.  After losing three entry level allowance races in a row, he has to be considered an outsider.

[#2] My Pal Charlie - Locally-based My Pal Charlie is a son of Indian Charlie, winner of the 1998 Santa Anita Derby and third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby the same year.  My Pal Charlie has just a single victory and he should be no match for the greater talents of Pyro, Tale Of Ekati, and Blackberry Road.  He may, however, contribute to the pace, and in doing so, he would help the same horses he is trying to beat.

[#3] Pyro - Pyro is one of the leaders as far as Kentucky Derby hopes go for 2008.  Pyro finished second to War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, and he was closing fast despite the sloppy going.  Pyro made his 2008 debut at the Fair Grounds a memorable one with a scintillating last-to-first move to win the Risen Star Stakes going away.  The Louisiana Derby distance of 1 1/16 miles is actually a tad shorter than Pyro prefers, and it is the only thing that could keep him out of the winner’s circle today.  That said, Pyro is in remarkable condition, a tribute to his handler Steve Asmussen.  In the Risen Star, Pyro defeated his previously undefeated stable mate Z Fortune.  Pyro had not raced for 3 1/2 months prior to the Risen Star, but now he has a recent race under his belt right here at the Fair Grounds.  He looks great and his Beyer figures are legitimate. Last year, Pyro finished 12 lengths clear of the third place finisher (Kodiak Kowboy) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and he earned a 105 Beyer for his trouble.  This followed a 100 Beyer effort in a second place finish (to War Pass again) in the Champagne at Belmont.  Pyro is regally bred, a son of 1997 Fountain of Youth winner Pulpit, and being a grandson of A P Indy he is proving to be a classic closer.  Closers don’t always win at the speed-biased Fair Grounds, so Pyro will prefer a very quick pace to run at, although he showed us in the Risen Star he can win without it.  Pyro is a major talent and he will take some beating today.

[#4] J Be K - J Be K is inexperienced but talented, a winner of both of his races including an impressive conditioned allowance win at the Fair Grounds.  With Steve Asmussen in his corner, and a recent fast race over the Fair Grounds course, J Be K will garner deserved support at the kiosks (betting machines).  J Be K looks to have a pedigree suited to turf, with the influence of Deputy Minister and Valid Wager, but sometimes this type of pedigree produces great sprinters on dirt.  J Be K has won his two sprints by a combined 12 lengths.  J Be K defeated maidens last summer at Saratoga for trainer Bob Baffert, transferred into Asmussen's barn last month when owner Ahmed Zayat pulled his West Coast runners out of California, and then sprinted to victory in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds on February 15.  The Louisiana Derby will be his first race around two turns.  Steve Asmussen was quoted by the Daily Racing Form as saying J Be K won't be caught if he stays.  And he went on to say, you don't know when they can stay until they've done it.  The key for J Be K today will be the pace.  The easier it is for J Be K to control the pace, the more he will have left to battle Pyro and Tale Of Ekati late.  But if the pace is contested, J Be K will be a sitting duck for his stable mate Pyro.  On paper, only My Pal Charlie looks to be able to run early with J Be K.  And if the that's the way the race plays out, J Be K has a legitimate chance to pull off the upset. 

[#5] Unbridled Vicar - Unbridled Vicar is a son of 1999 Fountain Of Youth and Florida Derby winner Vicar.  Locally based Unbridled Vicar has been competitive in his races but he has not posted any Beyer figures that would challenge Pyro, Blackberry Road, Tale Of Ekati, or J Be K.  Recently in the Risen Star Stakes,  Unbridled Vicar finished fourth, 3 1/4 lengths back of Pyro, but it is unlikely Unbridled Vicar will improve off that effort.  He had a perfect trip in the Risen Star and could do no better than fourth, and the competition just gets tougher today in the Louisiana Derby.

[#6] Tale Of Ekati - Tale Of Ekati looked very impressive winning the Futurity for 2-year-olds over Kodiak Kowboy last year.  Then he tailed off a little, finishing fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, behind War Pass (first), Pyro (second), and Kodiak Kowboy (third).  The Louisiana Derby will be the first race for Tale Of Ekati since the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and I expect a big effort.  And trainer Barclay Tagg reports Tale Of Ekati is fresh and ready for a big race.  Tale Of Ekati is versatile, with tactical speed and a big kick, and he is one of the main rivals for Pyro.  If J Be K gets loose on the lead, Tale Of Ekati should be in an ideal stalking position to reel him in.  The only question is if Tale Of Ekati likes the Fair Grounds main course as much as Pyro and J Be K, and if he does, look out for this guy in the lane.

[#7] Blackberry Road - Although Blackberry Road has won only one of his eight races so far, he is a very real threat to defeat Pyro in the Louisiana Derby.  Blackberry Road finished fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (won by Pyro) but he was victimized by a horrible trip under rider Calvin Borel.  Trapped in tight on the rail for the stretch run, Blackberry Road appeared to be climbing in frustration.  He looks like he wants more ground, and 8 ½ furlongs may be long enough to do the trick.  He bested the entire Le Comte field two months ago (here at the Fair Grounds) with the exception of the winner Z Fortune.  In the one mile Le Comte, he impressively passed four horses in the final eighth of a mile (earning a 90 Beyer).  Last November in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup at Churchill Downs he made up about 14 lengths to miss by a half-length.  He needs a good trip under new rider Robbie Albarado, and he could spring the upset.  In the Risen Star, he was next to last at the top of the stretch (Pyro was last) and finished fifth despite a nightmare trip down the lane.  Blackberry Road has the most upside of any horse in the Louisiana Derby.  No doubt about it.

[#8] Yankee Bravo - Yankee Bravo is the lone California shipper today and has won all three of his contests, including a maiden race last fall in England, the Eddie Logan Stakes on turf at Santa Anita, and the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on January 27.  His arrival in the "Big Easy" was delayed one day due to a cancelled flight from California, and that won't aid his cause any.  That said, handler Paddy Gallagher is high on Yankee Bravo, and that counts for something.  The Louisiana Derby will be Yankee Bravo's first start on a conventional dirt track.  He won his first two starts on grass and then won on a synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields.  His best chance is to bide his time and hope to make one big, late run, you notice I said hope. 

[#9] Majestic Warrior - For a brief moment in 2007, Majestic Warrior was considered the early favorite for the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  This was based on his powerful win in the Hopeful Stakes at Belmont Park.  But almost as suddenly as he appeared on the scene, Majestic Warrior dropped off the map with a disappointing effort in the Champagne (won easily by War Pass).  Sidelined by injury, Majestic Warrior finally returns to the track and trainer William Mott says he is ready.  I remember the impressive last-to-first move he made to win the Hopeful, and it was an eye-catcher.  I also remember the pitiful effort in the Champagne, where he had every chance and seemingly refused to run.  Majestic Warrior must be considered a dark horse for the Louisiana Derby, but we’ll need about 10-to-1 odds on him to be interested.

 Wager Recommendation Grade 2 Louisiana Derby  [Fair Grounds Race 9]

For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$25 Win-Place 7 ($50)
$5 Exacta Box 3/4/6/7 ($60)
$10 Exacta 7 with 3/4/5/6 ($40)
$10 Exacta 3/4/6 with 7 ($30) 
$1 Trifecta 3/7 with ALL with 3/4/5/6/7 ($56)
10¢ Superfecta 3/4/7 with ALL with 3/4/5/6/7 with ALL ($50.40)
Total Wagers $286.40

For "Lighter" Bettors
$3 Win-Place 7 ($6)
$1 Exacta Box 3/4/6/7 ($12)
$2 Exacta 7 with 3/4/5/6 ($8)
$2 Exacta 3/4/6 with 7 ($6) 
10¢ Superfecta 3/4/7 with ALL with 3/4/5/6/7 with ALL ($50.40)
Total Wagers $82.40

 Last Week's Results  

In the Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct last weekend, Daaher [#4] choked yet again in the stretch, and so did we along with him.  Our $250 WIN bet fell by the wayside.  Our second pick Malibu Moonshine [#1] gave us a measure of vindication by romping home for the victory.  For those smart enough to use our second pick Moonshine [#1] with our third pick Temporary Saint [#3] in the EXACTA BOX, you were handsomely rewarded with a $121.50 return on a $2 wager. 

$2   Exacta  (1-3)  Paid $121.50

Scratched: Kenta Kun [#2] and Explosive Heat [#5]