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Saturday March 15, 2008
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Reserve The Kentucky Derby 2008 Edition Full Card Selections And Wager Strategy For The Full Kentucky Derby Day Card Patented Computer Analysis For The Kentucky Derby All You Need For The First Jewel Of The Triple Crown ORDER NOW All For $7.79 From Horse Race Handicapping.com For Information Click Here For All 3 Triple Crown Full Cards Click Here Let's get down to business. As promised, here is the analysis of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. Good luck.
The System Toteboard
Gives You The Advantage Here is the field for the 10th at the Oaklawn Park:
Grade 2 Rebel Stakes 1 1/16 Miles (Main Course) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000
Copyright 2008 Daily
Racing Form
Our analysis indicates #8 (Anak Nakal), #1 (Isabull), #9 (Z Fortune), and #3 (Stone Bird) are the Key value horses for our wagers. We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy. Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win! You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our value plays: #8 (Anak Nakal), #1 (Isabull), #9 (Z Fortune), and #3 (Stone Bird). A Preview Of The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes [Oaklawn Park Race 10] [#1] Isabull – A son of Holy Bull, Isabull returned from two months off to finish a strong second (to Libery Bull) in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January. This came after failing to break through first allowance conditions at Churchill Downs, although one of those losses was to Monba. The problem is that Isabull threw in a clunker in the Southwest, just four weeks after his good Smarty Jones effort. Trainer Steve Hobby doesn't win too many big stakes, and the Rebel is one of the biggest stakes for 3-year-olds in the Oaklawn meet. Isabull, a son of Holy Bull and grandson of Miswaki, is certainly bred to run well, though, and the withdrawal of Denis Of Cork leaves the door open. Isabull has valuable experience over the Oaklawn course, and that makes him attractive as a dark horse in the Rebel. [#2] Sierra Sunset - Sierra Sunset, the Jeff Bonde trained runner-up to Denis Of Cork in the Southwest Stakes, impressed his trainer so much he decided to stay in Arkansas to run him in the Rebel Stakes. Sierra Sunset earned a Beyer of 92 in the Southwest, a lifetime best. He worked hard in the Southwest Stakes, stalking fast fractions (set by Sacred Journey) and then battling the length of the stretch to gain second place honors. Sierra Sunset is a son of Bertrando, and is fairly closely related by his female family to Denis Of Cork, who defeated him in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Sierra Sunset's second dam, Kay Ho, is the fourth dam of Denis Of Cork. Sierra Sunset won the California Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita (on Cushion Track) last year, and he won the Bay Meadows Juvenile on dirt. Sierra Sunset has 3 wins in 10 races and is proving he can compete at a high level. He competed pretty well against two of the the best West Coast 3-year-olds, Colonel John and El Gato Malo. His style is that of a stalker and he’s able to inject a healthy dose of speed to go along with it. His best chance in the Rebel is to nurse his speed and hope for a controlled, reasonable pace. If the pace is too hot, expect Sierra Sunset to have trouble in deep stretch. On the other hand, if they don't go too fast early, Sierra Sunset has a chance. [#3] Stone Bird - Stone Bird has won twice during the Oaklawn meet, a one mile maiden allowance and then a first level optional claiming allowance, also at a mile. The knock on Stone Bird is that he lost his first four races, but all of those races were as a juvenile. Also, none of those races were around two turns, and he rebounded to win his first two tries around two turns this year. He earned a 83 Beyer in his recent allowance win, as compared with the 95 Z Fortune earned in the Le Comte. D Wayne Lukas trains Stone Bird. Lukas has high hopes for the three-quarter brother to Birdstone, who defeated Smarty Jones in his bid for the 2004 Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. Birdstone and Stone Bird, both sons of 1996 Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, are bred and owned by Mary Lou Whitney, for years a prominent owner as well as the de facto queen of Saratoga society. Despite the positive signs, Stone Bird is going to have to improve a level to compete with the likes of Z Fortune, and we’re going to need reasonable odds to consider playing him in the Rebel. Stone Bird's style is to stalk from close-up, and that will put him in direct conflict with Sierra Sunset, making it very tough to achieve a good result, but not impossible. [#4] Sacred Journey - Sacred Journey flew out of the gate in the Southwest and set all the early fractions before succumbing to pressure in the stretch. Sacred Journey hung on for a share of third place in a virtual dead heat with Liberty Bull, all in all not a bad result. Sacred Journey is a son of millionaire Unbridled’s Song, winner of the 1995 Breeders Cup Juvenile and the 1996 Wood Memorial and Florida Derby. Sacred Journey is lightly raced but he has the look of a pure front runner, and Sacred Journed and others like He’s Eze and Sierra Sunset are going to need to slow the pace down in the Rebel to have a realistic chance of beating Z Fortune. [#5] Golden Yank – Golden Yank has an interesting pedigree, being a member of the first crop by freshman sire Yankee Gentleman. Yankee Gentleman is a son of Storm Cat and injects staying speed into Golden Yank's bloodline, and Golden Yank's broodmare sire Strike The Gold (a son of Alydar) provides a more classic oriented background. On the race track, Golden Yank enjoyed immediate success with a couple of stakes victories (at Remington Park and Delta Downs) before narrowly missing (to Turf War and Z Humor, who dead-heated for the win) in the $1 million G3 Delta Jackpot (also at Delta Downs). While Golden Yank is indisputably impressing everyone, his style is at odds with several in the Rebel, most notably Sierra Sunset, Sacred Journey, and He's Eze. It's a tall order to expect Golden Yank to repel the advances of all these front runners and stalkers, and then hold off both Z Fortune and Anak Nakal. Very tall order indeed. [#6] He’s Eze – He’s Eze could turn the balance of the Rebel to the advantage of the closers, because he is comfortable only when he runs on or near the pace. And his only stakes win came in the Jack Price Juvenile at Calder, which was a picture perfect gate-to-wire trip to defeat heavy favorite Wise Answer (as well as an up-and-coming Smooth Air). He’s Eze finished fifth in the Southwest after being restrained early and then completing the running evenly paced, and that’s just not his best style. I expect He’s Eze to be more prominent in the early stages of the Rebel, and that’s good news for Z Fortune and Anak Nakal. [#7] King's Silver Son – With a pedigree that includes names like Mizzen Mast, Cozzene, Caro, Graustark, Ribot, Dynaformer, and Roberto, one pervading thought comes to mind. Why isn't King's Silver Son racing on turf or synthetic surfaces instead of dirt? He already has three nice seconds on Polytrack. Steve Asmussen handles King's Silver Son and I have to think Steve is eager to give King's Silver Son a race before he loses form, having broken his maiden (in his sixth try) January 21 at the Fair Grounds. If I'm right, King's Silver Son may well be headed for a race on Polytrack or turf next time out. And it won't be at Oaklawn Park, because there is only dirt racing at Oaklawn. There is a chance King's Silver Son may close late to get a piece in the Rebel, but only if the pace collapses. [#8] Anak Nakal - Anak Nakal is a son of Victory Gallop, the horse who snatched a certain Triple Crown away from Real Quiet in the last jump of the 1998 Belmont Stakes. It's easy to forget that Victory Gallop won the G1 Whitney Handicap the following year. The pedigree of Anak Nakal is heavily influenced by Fappiano, who is a 4th generation sire on both the male and female family lines, and in turn by Fappiano's sire Mr. Prospector. All in all, the pedigree of Anak Nakal is representative in the classic sense (Dosage Index = 4.0) without being outstanding. On the racetrack, Anak Nakal has two wins in four starts, including a narrow victory over Blackberry Road in the 2007 G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Anak Nakal also finished second to the highly regarded Etched in the G3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last year. Anak Nakal last raced February 24 in the G2 Fountain Of Youth, his first race since his Kentucky Jockey Club triumph, and he finished a lackluster eighth (in a field of twelve) and did not show much. I'm sure Nick Zito was disappointed, but it is a strong vote of confidence that Zito comes right back with Anak Nakal in the Rebel. If Anak Nakal is ready to run and he likes the Oaklawn surface, the pace should not be a major factor, and he becomes the most logical alternative to Z Fortune. [#9] Z Fortune - Z Fortune exits the Risen Star Stakes, an important key race in which Z Fortune defeated all comers except one. That would be Pyro, of course, who came from dead last to win the Risen Star going away. Pyro stayed hot and went on to win the Louisiana Derby, also in impressive fashion, on Saturday, March 8. The third place finisher in the Risen Star was the fast improving Visionaire. Visionaire followed up on his Risen Star performance with a win in the Gotham Stakes in the fog at Aqueduct on Saturday, with an impressive and determined last to first move. The Risen Star Stakes looks like a solid key race and that certainly validates the performance of Z Fortune. I wrote this about Z Fortune the morning of the Risen Star Stakes, Saturday, February 9: "Steve Asmussen certainly holds all the aces in the Risen Star. If Pyro doesn’t win, Z Fortune is quite capable of picking up the pieces himself. In fact, having won impressively in the LeComte on January 12 (right here at the Fair Grounds), Z Fortune may go postward as favorite in the Risen Star. A New York bred son of Siphon (a star handicap horse in the late 1990s), Z Fortune has won all three of his races (by a combined 13 lengths) with Beyers of 93, 77, and 95. He wasn’t really asked when he earned the 77 against fellow N.Y. state breds, so his 95 in the Le Comte is more representative of where he is at right now. He must contend with an outside post and a potentially fast pace, and then with the big closers Blackberry Road and stable mate Pyro. He’s damn good, but don’t accept less than three-to-one odds on him." Z Fortune waited patiently in the Risen Star, stalking from his outside post position, timed his move nicely, and made what appeared to a winning moved in the stretch, only to be passed by a freight train by the name of Pyro. It is true that Z Fortune is peaking for the Rebel, and he is going to be a handful, but we may have caught a glimpse of the ceiling of Z Fortune in the Risen Star. Pyro made Z Fortune look bad in the final eighth of a mile, and Steve Asmussen had to know then that Z Fortune was not in the same league as his stable mate Pyro. Pyro is not in the Rebel, though, and neither is the talented Denis Of Cork, who was withdrawn to be pointed toward either the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. With no Pyro or Denis Of Cork to worry about, it appears the main challengers to Z Fortune will be Sierra Sunset and Anak Nakal. The ball is in Z Fortune's court, but he will have to overcome obstacles to take the game. Wager Recommendation Grade 2 Rebel Stakes [Oaklawn Park Race 10] For "Deep Pockets" Bettors $25 Win-Place 8 ($50) $5 Exacta Box 1/2/8/9 ($60) $10 Exacta 2/8 with 1/2/8/9 ($60) $5 Exacta 1/2/8/9 with 2/8 ($30) $1 Trifecta 2/8 with 1/2/3/8/9 with ALL ($56) 10¢ Superfecta 1/2/8/9 with 1/2/3/8/9 with ALL with ALL ($67.20) Total Wagers $323.20 For "Lighter" Bettors $5 Win-Place 8 ($10) $1 Exacta Box 1/2/8/9 ($12) 10¢ Superfecta 1/2/8/9 with 1/2/3/8/9 with ALL with ALL ($67.20) Total Wagers $89.20 Reminder: To check the results for the weekly selection you can always go to the home page for Horse-Race-Handicapping.com and click on the date in the upper right corner. Last Week's Results Pyro [#3] looked the part of a Kentucky Derby contender as odds-on favorite in the Louisiana Derby, knifing through traffic at the top of the lane, and storming past the leaders to win. Our primary value play Blackberry Road [#7] ran a respectable race but tired in the final yards to finish fourth at odds of 11-to-1. Long shot My Pal Charlie [#2] surprised the pundits by carrying his speed all the way to a second place finish at odds of 60-to-1. Had Blackberry Road finished third instead of fourth, the Horse-Race-Handicapping TRIFECTA and SUPERFECTA would have scored at very nice prices. As it was, the 10¢ SUPERFECTA of 3-2-8-7 paid $151 (for a dime). We'll be back next week with another big race on this year's Kentucky Derby trail.
$2 Exacta (3-2) Paid
$81.20 Reserve All 3 Triple Crown Full Cards Now Click Here
Copyright 2008 |
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