Saturday March 22, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 12th at Turfway Park: Turfway Park 12th (6:49)
Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes 
1 1/8 Miles (All-Weather Course) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000
 

Prg #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Duke Of De Buqe	Leparoux J	Pletcher Todd	12-1
2	Macho Again	Mena M	Stewart Dallas	10-1
3	Chitoz	Douglas R	Pletcher Todd	8-1
4	Rich Young Ruler	Pompell T	Daughn Thomas	30-1
5	Adriano	Prado E	Motion H Graham	6-1
6	Racecar Rhapsody	Albarado R	McPeek Kenneth	6-1
7	Halo's King	Castanon J	Hofmans Grant	50-1
8	Halo Najib	Desormeaux K	Romans Dale	7-2
9	Cannonball	Solis A	Ward Wesley	9-2
10	El Aleman	Mojica O	Seglin Luis	99-1
11	Turf War	Husbands P	Casse Mark	5-1
12	Medjool	Baze M	Hofmans David	5-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 12th at Turfway Park

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #3 (Chitoz), #5 (Adriano), and #9 (Cannonball) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our value plays:  #3 (Chitoz), #5 (Adriano), and #9 (Cannonball).

 A Preview Of The Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes  [Turfway Park Race 12]

[#1] Duke Of De Buqe –
Poly Pedigree Grade:  C-
Sire Dixie Union is strictly a dirt influence and adds nothing to the pedigree for Polytrack.  Dam Miss Livi introduces Halo and Stage Door Johnny to the pedigree, both versatile and very effective on grass and dirt, thereby softening the inhibiting presence of Dixie Union.  Duke Of De Buqe is a half-brother to Balto Star (shares same dam Miss Livi) who was effective on dirt and on grass.
Poly Performance Grade :  D+
Comes into Lane's End off a sprint win on conventional dirt at Aqueduct.  Owns 2 wins in 4 attempts, all on dirt, and always runs early.  Todd Pletcher trains.  No race experience on Polytrack.   

[#2] Macho Again -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A
Sold for $150,000 in Ocala Breeders Sale last year.  On the male line, the sire Macho Uno is a son of Holy Bull and a descendant of Blushing Groom.  These are strong positive Poly-indicators.  On the female side, dam Go Donna Go brings Wild Again and Proud Birdie into the mixture, which adds a bit more Poly-quality.  The male and female lines complement each other nicely.   
Poly Performance Grade:  C+
No recent Polytrack experience to go on, just a poor maiden effort on Polytrack last October.  Owns a nice second to well-regarded Monba in a Churchill Downs conditioned allowance, and a win in allowance conditions at the Fair Grounds.  Both races were dirt sprints which means little today, but you can't knock Macho Again for lack of class.   

[#3] Chitoz -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A+
Sire Forest Wildcat is a son of the great Polytrack sire Storm Cat, which is great news, while Forest Wildcat's dam Victoria Beauty doesn't add much to the mix (except speed).  Dam Wichitoz adds Affirmed and Nijinsky to the pedigree mix, both proven sires on both grass and dirt.  Versatile sires like these give promise of a strong affinity for Polytrack.  All in all, Chitoz has a nearly flawless pedigree to run great on synthetic surfaces.
Poly Performance Grade:  A-
Chitoz has a maiden and a allowance victory, the allowance won on grass at Churchill Downs.  More importantly, has previous experience over Turfway Polytrack, running a respectable second to Texas Fever in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile last year.  Chitoz is in prime physical condition, and he is trained by Hall-of-Famer Todd Pletcher.  Pletcher also trains Duke Of De Buqe, but Chitoz is the better of the two on Polytrack.  Chitoz is a prime threat to win the Lane's End, despite his modest morning line odds. 

[#4] Rich Young Ruler -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  C
Sire Victory Gallop introduces Cryptoclearance and Vice Regent into the bloodline, a solid Poly-combination of both speed and endurance.  Dam Scratch Paper introduces Notebook, a dirt miler, into the mix, not a good Poly-sign at all.
Poly Performance Grade:  D+
Broke his maiden at lowly Sam Houston, then managed an unexpected third (behind Liberty Bull and Isabull) in Smarty Jones at Oaklawn.  Next was an off-the-board finish in the Risen Star (won by current Kentucky Derby favorite Pyro).  No races on synthetic tracks yet.    

[#5] Adriano –
Poly Pedigree Grade:  B+
Sire is A P Indy which may add a little too much Secretariat to the pedigree cocktail.  Remember, Secretariat is a son of Bold Ruler, a dominant conventional dirt sire.  Adriano's dam Gold Canyon, on the other hand, introduces Mr. Prospector and Theatrical, as well as Golden Dust, into the pedigree.  This female line influence is a combination that screams Polytrack, Polytrack, Polytrack.
Poly Performance Grade:  A-
Although Adriano usually races on grass, the H. Graham Motion trainee finished fourth in Keeneland’s G1 Lane’s End Breeders Futurity Stakes on Polytrack, this after breaking his maiden on turf at Saratoga.  Sometimes how a horse runs on grass indicates how he will like synthetic tracks.  Adriano has a big 7-length allowance win over the Gulfstream Park turf course, this after running fifth in the Laurel Futurity, also run on turf.  Enters Lane's End off a poor performance in Fountain of Youth that we can ignore because it was on conventional dirt.  Possesses a very nice closing style which will only aid his cause in the Lane's End.

[#6] Racecar Rhapsody –
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A
Sire is Tale Of The Cat, who is in turn a son of probably the greatest Polytrack sire Storm Cat.  Racecar Rhapsody's dam Reflect The Music introduces A P Indy and Nijinsky into the bloodline, altogether another positive effect to be added to the influence of Storm Cat.  The result is a damn good Polytrack pedigree.
Poly Performance Grade:  B+
Only win is a maiden effort over Keeneland Polytrack.  Also has a third in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes November 24, 2007 at Churchill Downs, and a fourth-place finish in the Delta Jackpot early in December.  Those two races were on dirt.  Lane's End is first start of the year for Racecar Rhapsody.  If he is primed, he may be able to circle the field late.

[#7] Halo's King –
Poly Pedigree Grade:  B
Sire Halo's Image is good as a Poly-sire without being outstanding.  Dam Queen Lu Lu is a daughter of Kingmambo, a perfect sire for routes on Polytrack, but Queen Lu Lu is also a descendant of the Jacinto branch of the Bold Ruler line, which indicates conventional dirt aptitude only.  The overall pedigree is still pretty good, but the influence of Jacinto puts a damper on things.
Poly Performance Grade:  D+
Broke maiden on Turfway Polytrack in very slow time.  Finished fifth in J Battaglia here at Turfway.  Has experience at local  venue but is still considered outsider.  Maybe gets in superfecta.

[#8] Halo Najib -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  B
Sire Halo's Image is good as a Poly-sire, but not outstanding.  Dam Najibe's Wish is a granddaughter of Nijinsky, who is a rock solid Poly-sire, and she is also a granddaughter of Slewpy, who is fair as a Polytrack sire.
Poly Performance Grade:  A
Broke maiden at first asking over Keeneland Polytrack. Then returned to an artificial surface to win the February 11 Darley Ocala Breeders Sale Championship Stakes at the Ocala Training Center.  Enters Lane's End off sixth-place finish in Fountain of Youth, which is a total throw-out since it was run on conventional dirt.  Looks dangerous against a Lane's End field that lacks depth.  No good arguments against Halo Najib, except that his odds will not be attractive.  We'll put him underneath where we can.

[#9] Cannonball -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A+
Cannonball is a son of Catienus out of the Skywalker mare No Deadline.  Catienus was a son of Storm Cat and won 5 of 22 starts for earnings of over $370,000.  Catienus never won a graded stakes, but he did finish second in the 1999 G2 Suburban and third in the G1 Whitney the same year, both on conventional dirt.  On the male line, Storm Cat is a highly important Polytrack sire, while on the female line Skywalker adds endurance to an already strong pedigree.  Bottom line, Cannonball is bred to excel on Polytrack and other synthetic surfaces. 
Poly Performance Grade:  A-
Has quite an impressive resume' already.  Finished second at long odds in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, this less than a week after winning the King Cugat at Belmont over yielding turf.  Continued to perform well in 2008 with on-the-board finishes in the G3 Tropical Park Derby at Calder and the Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream, both on grass.  Although Cannonball has no Polytrack races to talk about, his turf performance and close-up stalking style are positive signs he will do just fine on a synthetic surface. 

[#10] El Aleman -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A
Sire Point Given introduces Gulch and Turkoman into bloodline, an excellent match of speed and endurance, as well as versatility.  Turkoman was a two-time in-the-money finisher in Breeders Cup Classics (1985-1986) on conventional dirt.  Dam Deep Magic adds Gone West and Cyane to the mix, both proven excellent Poly-sires.  An outstanding Polytrack pedigree.  Something seems amiss, though, because El Aleman sold for a mere $11,000 at the February 2007 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky sales.  Can't blame the pedigree.
Poly Performance Grade:  D+
Locally-based maiden.  Nothing to bank on from record so far.  Only positive is the "second race back from a layoff" angle.  O.K. to include as part of superfecta wheel.  

[#11] Turf War -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  B-
Full brother to New Orleans Handicap winner (on dirt) Grasshopper.  Sire Dixie Union screams dirt, dirt, dirt!  That could be a big problem for Turf War in the Lane's End.  Dam Grass Skirt is a mix of Mr. Prospector and Nijinsky, both much sunnier prospects for Polytrack performance.  But the male line inhibits Turf War's overall Polytrack prospects.
Poly Performance Grade:  A-
Turf War broke his maiden over Polytrack at Woodbine and won the Swynford Stakes there as a 2-year-old.  Has been training all winter on Polytrack and at Ocala on an all-weather surface similar to Polytrack.  Turf War's trainer Mark Casse, who is a fixture near the top of the trainer standings at Woodbine in Canada, is an expert at training for synthetic tracks.  The only fly in the ointment is Turf War's unexpected recent poor finish in the Rebel at Oaklawn.  He finished ninth as favorite and trailed by as many as 25 lengths chasing a hot pace.  Since the Rebel was on a conventional dirt surface, it's not that important.  It's wise to disregard the Rebel, and concentrate on the excellent results for Turf War on synthetic surfaces.

[#12] Medjool -
Poly Pedigree Grade:  A-
Sire Monarchos was a Kentucky Derby winner on dirt, but introduces excellent Poly-sires Wavering Monarch and Roberto into the mix.  Dam Perfect Story is a granddaughter of Storm Cat and Turkoman, another outstanding mixture of Polytrack breeding. 
Poly Performance Grade:  B-
Medjool enters the Lane's end off a 4-length victory in a maiden route over the Cushion Track surface at his home track, Santa Anita.  It took Medjool six tries to secure his first win, but trainer David Hofmans is very optimistic about the colt's future.  "Wise-guy" type of horse.  O.K. to include in exotics.

 Last Week's Results  

Yet again Horse-Race-Handicapping is just shy of nailing outstanding EXACTA, TRIFECTA and SUPERFECTA payoffs.  In the Rebel Stakes, had our value play Isabull [#1] finished second instead of third, we would have enjoyed a clean sweep at very big prices.  As it was, the winning combination of 2-7-1-5 in the SUPERFECTA paid $644.29 for a dime.  We're just getting warmed up for the Triple Crown and we'll be back next week with another race featuring Kentucky Derby contenders.  

$2   Exacta  (2-7)  Paid $173.60
$2   Trifecta  (2-7-1)  Paid $2,210.80
$2   Superfecta  (2-7-1-5)  Paid $6,442.90