"HRH Toteboard For The Grade 1
Florida Derby (10th Race At Gulfstream Park, Saturday,
March 29,
2008)"
Gulfstream Park plays host Saturday to
the $1 million Florida Derby, historically one of the
most important Kentucky Derby preps of the season. Two years ago Barbaro used the Florida Derby as a springboard to a
dramatic victory in the Kentucky Derby. The
$1,000,000 graded stakes takes place Saturday afternoon,
and it will be televised live on
ESPN2.
The estimated $600,000 winner's share of the purse will guarantee a
berth to the Kentucky Derby.
Today we handicap the $1,000,000 Grade 1 Florida Derby
for 3-year-olds to be contested at 1 1/8 miles over the
Gulfstream Park main course on conventional dirt. The Grade
1 Florida Derby is the
10th race on the card at Gulfstream Park.
Saturday's race is off at 5:45 p.m. EDT (4:45 p.m. CDT, 2:45 p.m. PDT).
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Let's get down to business. As promised, here is the
analysis of the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Good luck.
The System Toteboard
Gives You The Advantage
Today we employ a tool
introduced by
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
, the
System Toteboard.
Here is the field for the 10th at Gulfstream Park:
Gulfstream Park 10th (5:45)
Grade 1 Florida Derby
1 1/8 Miles (Main Course) |
3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Trainer |
ML |
|
1 |
Fierce Wind |
Velasquez C |
Zito Nick |
6-1 |
|
2 |
Smooth Air |
Cruz M |
Stutts, Jr. Bennie |
10-1 |
|
3 |
Da' Tara |
Bravo J |
Zito Nick |
20-1 |
|
4 |
Tomcito |
Chavez J |
Zanelli Dante |
12-1 |
|
5 |
Cool Gator |
Castro E |
Vella Danny |
20-1 |
|
6 |
Nistle's Crunch |
Leparoux J |
McPeek Kenneth |
10-1 |
|
7 |
B B Frank |
Castellano J |
Tarrant Amy |
20-1 |
|
8 |
Elysium Fields |
Coa E |
Tagg Barclay |
4-1 |
|
9 |
Hey Byrn |
Lezcano J |
Plesa, Jr. Eddie |
5-1 |
|
10 |
Majestic Warrior |
Douglas R |
Mott William |
15-1 |
|
11 |
Face The Cat |
Velazquez J |
Pletcher Todd |
8-1 |
|
12 |
Big Brown |
Desormeaux K |
Dutrow, Jr. Rick |
3-1 |
Copyright 2008 Daily
Racing Form
Step 1.
Compare
the odds on the
System Toteboard to the
Morning Line
odds for the race.
Here are the two toteboards:
Morning Line Odds for the 10th at Gulfstream
Park
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#1 |
#2
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#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
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#7 |
#8
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#9 |
#10 |
#11
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#12 |
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6 |
12 |
20 |
12 |
20 |
10 |
20 |
4 |
5 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
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System Toteboard Odds for
the 10th at Gulfstream Park
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#1 |
#2
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#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
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#7 |
#8
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#9 |
#10 |
#11
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#12 |
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5 |
14 |
22 |
12 |
15 |
10 |
32 |
4 |
5 |
14 |
8 |
9:2 |
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Step 2.
Copy down the program number,
System
Toteboard odds, and Morning
Line odds of every horse having
Morning Line odds
higher
than the System Toteboard odds.
|
Program Number |
System Toteboard odds |
Morning Line odds |
|
#1 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
|
#5 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
|
#10 |
14.0 |
15.0 |
Step 3.
Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract
the System Toteboard odds from the
Morning Line odds.
Now
divide the result by the System Toteboard odds.
Copy this
number down for each horse.
|
Program Number |
Morning Line
odds - System Toteboard odds |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
|
#1 |
1.0 |
0.20 |
|
#5 |
5.0 |
0.33 |
|
#10 |
1.0 |
0.07 |
Step 4.
List the horses
from Step 3 from the
largest
red
number down to the
smallest
red number.
|
Program Number |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
|
#5 |
0.33 |
|
#1 |
0.20 |
|
#10 |
0.07 |
Step
5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #5 (Cool Gator),
#1 (Fierce Wind), and #10 (Majestic Warrior) are the Key value horses for our wagers. We incorporate these
horses into our betting strategy. Here is the low down on the race and
our final strategy to win!
You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the
board on our value plays: #5 (Cool Gator), #1 (Fierce Wind), and
#10 (Majestic Warrior).
A
Preview Of
The Grade 1 Florida Derby [Gulfstream Park
Race 10]
[#1] Fierce Wind - Highly regarded colt defeated Big Truck and Smooth
Air in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Fierce Wind took the
lead at top of the stretch and held off a late run by Big Truck.
In the Sam F Davis, Fierce Wind had to track a pair of talented
pacesetters (Wise Answer and Z Humor) before assuming command.
Prior to the Sam F Davis, Fierce Wind was a confident winner in a
first-level allowance, right here at Gulfstream. The experience
gained from that allowance win over the track at Gulfstream is going to
help Fierce Wind a great deal.
Fierce Wind was purchased for $90,000 at Keeneland September 2006.
Sire Dixie Union was a five-time graded stakes winner from 1999-2000.
Dixie Union is an outstanding source of aptitude for conventional dirt
racing from 6.5 up to 9 furlongs. Fierce Wind's dam Post Parade is
a daughter of the classic sire A P Indy. The female line also is
sprinkled with versatile sires such as Nijinsky and Roberto. All
in all, the pedigree of Fierce Wind is outstanding.
[#2] Smooth Air - Smooth Air made a splash in the slop at Gulfstream
winning the G2 Hutcheson over Silver Edition and Halo Najib. In
the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Smooth Air finished third behind a
pair of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Fierce Wind and Big Truck. Smooth
Air is a nice talent but we may have caught a glimpse of his ceiling
already. Smooth Air had a troubled trip in his two-turn debut in the Sam F Davis Stakes,
and although the experience will do him good, he may not have the
staying power to win the Florida Derby. He faces a difficult
challenge considering the depth of the field.
Sire Smooth Jazz won a single graded stakes at seven furlongs. In
Reality is present in the female line, always a good sign for an off
track.
[#3] Da' Tara - Back in January, Da’Tara broke his maiden at Gulfstream going 1 1/8 miles.
That was his third career start, and he came back to finish third in a one-mile
first-level allowance on February 22. Nick Zito trains Da' Tara as
well as the more accomplished Fierce Wind. Zito chose to run Da'
Tara (along with Fierce Wind) instead of Anak Nakal, also under
consideration. If Da' Tara receives a patient ride from Joe Bravo,
he could slip into the superfecta at long odds.
Da' Tara's sire Tiznow is also the sire of Slew's Tiznow, Slew's Tizzy,
and Bear Now, all principally synthetic track specialists. Tiznow is the only horse in history to win back-to-back Breeders Cup Classics at Churchill Downs
(2000) and Belmont Park (2001). Tiznow's winning times for his two Classic wins were good but not exceptional.
Da' Tara's dam Torchera is a daughter of Pirate's Bounty, who had a
non-descript career. Torchera's female line includes Cyane, a son
of Turn-To. Turn-To is one of the premier sources of stamina and
turf aptitude.
[#4] Tomcito - Peruvian import won a pair of G1 stakes in South America
before making the journey to the U. S. Last out Tomcito won Peru’s
G1 Derby Nacional at 1 1/2 miles on November 17. His first start
in the U. S. will be the G1 Florida Derby.
Tomcito has won 4 of 5 starts, his only defeat a second in the Peruvian
2,000 Guineas. Tomcito, bred in Kentucky, raced in Peru against
horses bred in the Southern Hemisphere with several months more
development under their belt. Comparisons have inevitably been
made between Tomcito and another South American thoroughbred named
Canonero II. Canonero II won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in
1971. Canonero II sold for a modest $1,200 as a yearling at the 1969
Keeneland Fall sales, shipped to Venezuela under the care of Juan Arias,
and won the Kentucky Derby 18 months later. Tomcito was a modest
$7,500 purchase at the 2006 Keeneland September yearling sales, and he
is trying to follow in the footsteps of Canonero II.
Sire is 2002 Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry, who also sired 2007 Kentucky Derby
winner Street Sense. The Street Cry line is suited to grass as
well as it is to conventional dirt. Tomcito's broodmare sire Eastern Echo raced
only three times in a shortened career, but made the most of it winning
the 1990 G1 Futurity at Belmont. The pedigrees of Tomcito and
Canonero II are not related.
Are You A Practical "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettor? Or
Maybe You're A Sensible "Lighter" Bettor. You Could Be A Let It All
Hang Out "Deep Pockets" Bettor. Or Possibly You Are A
"Power Ball"
Bettor Swinging For The Fences. Whatever The Case We Have The
Best
Kentucky Derby 2008 Strategy For You.
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[#5] Cool Gator - Cool Gator performed very well in Canada last fall. Finished second in the Grey B. C. Stakes at Woodbine
on Polytrack. Also finished second in the Coronation Futurity at
Woodbine, a stakes restricted to Canadian-breds. The plan for Cool
Gator is to use the Florida Derby as a litmus test for the Kentucky
Derby. Do well in the Florida Derby, and head on to the Kentucky
Derby. Cool Gator became acclimated to the track in a 1 1/8 mile
allowance, finishing second to Florida Derby rival Nistle's Crunch on
March 1.
Sire Macho Uno, a son of Holy Bull, won the 2000 Breeders Cup Juvenile defeating the brilliant Point Given.
Broodmare sire Rubiano was a seven-time graded stakes winner
specializing in 7-furlong sprints on conventional dirt. Cool
Gator is certainly bred to be fast on conventional dirt, and so are many
others in this exciting Florida Derby line-up.
[#6] Nistle's Crunch - Nistle's Crunch has registered both career victories at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Florida Derby, including a two-length win in a first-level allowance
at Gulfstream Park on March 1. "I think off his last race he definitely deserves a chance in the Florida Derby," trainer Ken McPeek said
(as reported by the Daily Racing Form). Nistle's
Crunch did much of the running in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita
(on Cushion Track) finishing a willing third.
Sire Van Nistlerooy was group stakes placed at a mile (and less) in Ireland
in 2002. Van Nistlerooy is a son of Storm Cat, a source of staying
speed. Dam of Nistle's Crunch is Halory, a daughter of Halo.
[#7] B B Frank - B B Frank enters off a conditioned allowance win here at Gulfstream
Park, defeating Da’ Tara (who finished third). B B Frank daces the
most difficult challenge of his developing career in the Florida Derby
(his stakes debut).
The sire of B B Frank is Came Home, a son of Mr. Prospector. Came
Home was a top quality handicap horse with no less than six graded
stakes victories as a 3-year-old including the 2002 Swaps Stakes, Santa
Anita Derby, and Affirmed Handicap. That was also the year long
shot War Emblem (trained by Bob Baffert) wired a Kentucky Derby field
that included Came Home. Came Home finished sixth in the Derby,
closing from 14th early on to get as close as 4th in the stretch.
B B Frank's dam Diaki is a daughter of English-bred Diesis, a two-time
group 1 winner of turf sprints overseas.
[#8] Elysium Fields - Elysium Fields is one of three Kentucky Derby contenders trained by Barclay Tagg (Big Truck and Tale Of Ekati are the other two). His second to Cool Coal Man in the Fountain
of Youth showcased an ability to finish a race impressively. I'm still not convinced of the depth of the Fountain
of Youth field, but there is no denying the quality of the effort by Elysium Fields. He went off at odds of 8-to-1 in the Fountain of Youth, and we won’t get anything near that in the Florida Derby. The original official wining time of the Fountain of Youth was reported as 1:51.85. Then the official time was revised to 1:50.07 due to a clock malfunction. Either way it was a slowly-run Fountain of Youth, but the revision (if you believe it) makes the winning time more palatable. In the Florida Derby, the door is wide open for Elysium Fields if he continues to show improvement. And with two solid routes over the course already (a maiden win and the second in the Fountain of Youth) there is
every reason to expect Elysium Fields to step up and run a big race.
The reserve price for Elysium Fields was not attained when $275,000 was the high bid on him at Keeneland September 2006. This is commonly referred to as a “buy-back.” Ownership does not transfer because the consignor set a minimum price which was never reached in the bidding. Elysium Fields is by El Prado, and El Prado is by Sadler's Wells out of the Sir Ivor mare Lady Capulet. The dam of Elysium Fields is Dreams. Dreams is by Silver Hawk, a son of Roberto. This pedigree looks typical for a horse running in the Arc De Triomphe, not the Florida Derby. It didn't bother Elysium Fields in the Fountain
of Youth, where he finished a strong second to Cool Coal Man. The pedigree supports an aptitude for endurance, and that could come in handy in a Florida Derby laced with speed.
[#9] Hey Byrn - Hey Byrn may compete for favoritism with Big Brown and Elysium Fields in the Florida Derby.
Last year Hey Byrn showed promise with a second-place finish to Wise
Answer in the 7-fulrong Affirmed Stakes at Calder. This year Hey Byrn
broke his maiden in style with a 14-length score at one mile at
Gulfstream. It was his first start since finishing fourth (losing
to Wise Answer again) in the Foolish Pleasure at Calder last September.
He followed his maiden triumph with a 6-length win under first-level
allowance conditions at 1 1/8-miles over the Gulfstream Park main
course. It was a professional performance, albeit in a winning
time typical for the conditions. Since then Hey Byrn has been working
forwardly for the Florida Derby.
Hey Byrn was purchased for $160,000 at the OBS (Ocala Breeders Sale) March sales
for 2-year-olds.
Hey Byrn is a son of the stakes sprinter Put It Back and a grandson of
the successful handicap horse Skip Trial. Skip Trial won a
remarkable eight graded stakes from 1985-1986, including the Haskell
Invitational and the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Hey Byrn owns a
pedigree highly suited to routes at Gulfstream Park.
[#10] Majestic Warrior - For a brief moment in 2007, Majestic Warrior was considered the early favorite for the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This was based on his powerful win in the Hopeful Stakes at Belmont Park. But almost as suddenly as he appeared on the scene, Majestic Warrior dropped off the map with a disappointing effort in the Champagne (won easily by War Pass). Sidelined by injury, Majestic Warrior finally returned to the track in March in the Louisiana Derby, and trainer William Mott claimed he was ready. He wasn’t. Majestic Warrior never really threatened and finished a tired seventh in the Louisiana Derby (won by Pyro). It’s funny how jockeys “sugarcoat” their mounts after a poor performance. After the race Garrett Gomez stated Majestic Warrior ran a good race to the eighth pole and he (Gomez) was encouraged by the overall performance. I remember last year the impressive last-to-first move Majestic Warrior made to win the Hopeful, and it was an eye-catcher. I also remember the pitiful effort in the Champagne, where he had every chance and seemingly refused to run. I considered Majestic Warrior a dark horse for the Louisiana Derby, and I didn’t seen anything in his performance to make me overly optimistic for the Florida Derby. He is definitely not a throw-out, and this will be his second race off a five-month layoff, but we’ll need at least 14-to-1 odds on him to be interested. If we get odds, he could be an upset candidate.
Sire is the classic stallion A P Indy (still gets $300,000 stud fee) and dam is the two-time G1 winner Dream Supreme. At age three, Dream Supreme won the G1 Test, G1 Ballerina and G3 Gallant Bloom. The next year she won another three graded stakes. Dream Supreme was strictly a dirt sprinter, and a good one. Her sire Seeking The Gold was a career $2 million winner with a pair of G1 victories and a second (to Alysheba) in the 1988 Breeders Cup Classic. It's safe to say Majestic Warrior is about as regally bred as a horse can get (for conventional dirt).
[#11] Face The Cat - The Florida Derby will be the first start for Face The Cat since being purchased privately by owner Satish Sanan earlier this winter. Todd Pletcher has been assigned training duties by the new owner. Face The Cat is a perfect two-for-two at Gulfstream Park, having won a maiden sprint (January 4) and a one-mile conditioned allowance (January 30) while in the barn of trainer Helen Pitts. Face The Cat recorded a solid winning time of 1:35.33 for the one mile allowance, and defeated Nistle’s Crunch (second) and Stevil (third). With four excellent breezes from February 11 to March 16, you can expect Face The Cat to be
primed for the Florida Derby (his stakes debut). The outside post
position is a negative, but not a deal-breaker because there are horses
he can clear to his immediate inside.
Face The Cat has a classic pedigree. He is a son of Tale Of The
Cat, second-place finisher to the champion handicap horse Awesome Again
in the 1998 Grade 1 Whitney. Mr. Prospector, present in both
male and female lines, is responsible for 25% of the pedigree of Face
The Cat.
[#12] Big Brown - Before we talk about Big Brown, you better read this:
Since Gulfstream Park expanded to a 1 1/8 mile oval in 2005, no horse
has ever won a 1 1/8 mile race (on dirt) from the 12th post position, or
the 11th for that matter.
Now you can continue reading. Big Brown has looked dominating in his only two races, a maiden
special weight on turf and a first-level
allowance scheduled for turf but transferred to dirt. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is
thrilled with his young charge's development. Dutrow was quoted by
the Daily Racing Form as saying the overall plan has been going well and
Big Brown has done everything asked of him so far. The Kentucky-bred
won by over 12 lengths in the first-level allowance on March 5, and Big
Brown was timed in a brisk 1:35.66 for the one-turn mile. Big Brown won
his debut (at Saratoga) in the summer of 2007, run on grass, with an 11 length
walk in the park. He was unable to compete in the inaugural
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last fall due to nagging hoof problems, which
delayed his 2008 debut. Big Brown earned a 104 Beyer for his
latest victory, and in a season where Kentucky Derby prep winners have
not broken the triple-digit Beyer threshold, that's big news. And the fact that Big Brown did it recently over the Gulfstream strip
means he could be a horse-for-the-course, so look for a big effort in
the Florida Derby. Will the outside post deny him? Maybe,
maybe not, but it will definitely detract from his value as a wagering
proposition.
Big Brown was a $190,000 Keeneland April 2007 purchase.
Big Brown's sire is Boundary. Boundary was chiefly a sprinter on conventional dirt wining a pair of Grade 3 six-furlong sprints
in 1994. Big Brown's dam Bien is a daughter of Nureyev and Miasma.
The female line is heavily slanted towards turf aptitude. The
blending of brilliant speed from Boundary and resilient staying power
from Bien could be the formula for a Florida Derby winner.
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Wager Recommendation
Grade 1 Florida Derby [Gulfstream Park
Race 10]
For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$25 Win-Place 1 ($50)
$10 Exacta 1/8 with 1/5/8/9/10 ($80)
$5 Exacta 1/5/8/9/10 with 1/8 ($40)
$1 Trifecta 1/8/9 with ALL with 1/5/8/9 ($90)
10¢
Superfecta 1/8/9/10 with ALL with ALL with 1/8/9/10 ($108)
Total Wagers $368
For "Lighter" Bettors
$3 Win-Place 1 ($6)
$2 Exacta 1/8 with 1/5/8/9/10 ($16)
$2 Exacta 1/5/8/9/10 with 1/8 ($16)
Total Wagers $38
For "Sharpshooter" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 1 with ALL with 8 with ALL ($9)
Total Wagers $9
For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$50 Place-Show 1 ($100)
$15 Win 9 ($15)
Total Wagers $115
For "Power Ball" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 1/8/9/10 with ALL with ALL with 5 ($36)
Total Wagers $36
Reminder: To check the results for the weekly
selection you can
always go to the home page for
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com and click on the date in the upper right
corner.
Last Week's Results
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com is beginning to warm up, and just in time for
the major Kentucky
Derby preps, including the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial, and the
Santa Anita Derby. We nailed a win bet in the Lane's End on
our value play Adriano [#5] returning $145 for a $25 investment.
Also
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com cashed the
SUPERFECTA of 5-8-12-6
returning $92.94 for a silver dime. Our other value play Chitoz
[#3] finished fifth, just missing the SUPERFECTA at long odds.
Don't miss next week's selection at Horse-Race-Handicapping.com.
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
5 |
Adriano |
Prado E S |
11.60 |
6.40 |
4.60 |
|
8 |
Halo Najib |
Desormeaux K J |
|
5.40 |
4.00 |
|
12 |
Medjool |
Baze M C |
|
|
4.80 |
$2 Exacta (5-8) Paid
$46.80
$2 Trifecta (5-8-12) Paid $321.60
$2 Superfecta (5-8-12-6) Paid $1,858.80
Scratched: Halo's King [#7]
Reserve
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Copyright 2008
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
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