Saturday April 5, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 7th  at Hawthorne Park: Hawthorne Park 7th  (4:30 CDT)
Grade 2 Illinois Derby 
1 1/8 Miles (Main Course) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000
 

Prg #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Recapturetheglory	Baird E T	Roussel, III Louie J	8-1
2	Instill	Emigh C A	Wainwright John C	15-1
3	Z Humor	Douglas R R	Mott William I	3-1
4	Atoned	Bravo J	Pletcher Todd A	4-1
5	Denis Of Cork	Leparoux J R	Carroll David	2-1
6	Golden Spikes	Thornton T	Wolfson Martin D	5-1
7	Real Appeal	Graham J	Amoss Thomas	8-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 7th  at Hawthorne Park

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #4 (Atoned), #3 (Z Humor) and #5 (Denis Of Cork) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our value plays:  #4 (Atoned), #3 (Z Humor) and #5 (Denis Of Cork).

 A Preview Of The Grade 2 Illinois Derby  [Hawthorne Park Race 7]

[#1] Recapturetheglory - In September of last year, Recapturetheglory broke his maiden in a route here at Hawthorne.   Later on in November, Recapturetheglory ran a nice second to Cool Coal Man at Churchill Downs in a first-level allowance.  Cool Coal Man went on to win the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.  Recapturetheglory breezed five furlongs in 1:00.00 on March 26 at the Fair Grounds.

Sire Cherokee Run should be familiar to you, as he is also the sire of last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile champion War Pass.  Cherokee Run specialized in long distance sprinting, but he also performed well in routes, winning at 1 1/8 miles in the G2 Dwyer and finishing second in the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles the same year (1993).  Recapturetheglory's broodmare sire Dehere won five graded stakes from 1993-1994 and four of those wins were sprints.  Dehere was the favorite in the 1993 Breeders Cup Juvenile but faded to eighth (Brocco won) and as a 3-year-old he won the G3 Fountain Of Youth and was injured shortly after and retired to stud.

[#2] Instill - Last year's winner of the Illinois Futurity (an Illinois state-bred stakes for juveniles) Instill will be considered an underdog in the Illinois Derby.  Instill looks to right the ship after two disappointing efforts in his most recent starts.

Sire Proud Citizen earned $638,000 in 16 starts and finished second in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.  Proud Citizen is also the sire of the outstanding filly Proud Spell (trained by Larry Jones) who defeated Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly champion Indian Blessing in the Fair Grounds Oaks this year.  Instill's broodmare sire Sports View won over $900,000 in a wonderful career.  Although Sports View never won a G1 stakes, he finished second to Jolie's Halo in the 1991 G1 Donn Handicap, and provides a rich source of stamina for Instill.

[#3] Z Humor - Z Humor is not to be confused with Z Fortune (runner-up to Pyro in the Risen Star).  Z Humor is the colt who finished fourth (behind Cool Coal Man, Elysium Fields and Court Vision) in the Fountain of Youth, which is looking more and more to be a weak key race.  Z Humor also looked good in another race that isn't living up to its reputation.  In December, Z Humor dead-heated with Turf War for the win in the $1 million G3 Delta Jackpot (at Delta Downs).  Turf War next surfaced in the G2 Rebel to finish a terrible ninth as betting favorite, and trailed by as many as 25 lengths chasing a hot pace.  Then in the Lane's End, Turf War finished well off the board (8th of twelve) once again.  Another horse that ran well in the Delta Jackpot was Golden Yank, who finished a close third behind Z Humor and Turf War.  Golden Yank had enjoyed success with a couple of stakes victories (at Remington Park and Delta Downs) before narrowly missing in the Delta Jackpot, but then finished an uninspired fourth in the Rebel.  Z Humor will have to overcome the stigma of those two bad key races, the Fountain of Youth and the Delta Jackpot. 

Sire Distorted Humor was a multiple graded stakes winner from 1996 to 1998 and was most effective from 7 furlongs to a mile.  Z Humor's broodmare sire A P Indy is perhaps the most influential classic stallion (for conventional dirt) in the last thirteen years.

[#4] Atoned - Atoned was the bad luck loser to Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby, best remembered as the race in which War Pass finished last at odds of 1-to-20.  Atoned was very competitive as a juvenile racing in stakes at Delaware Park and Monmouth Park.  And this year, continuing under the care of Todd Pletcher, Atoned has attained an even higher level of performance.  In the Tampa Bay Derby, despite not winning, Atoned displayed patience, professionalism, and an impressive stretch kick in finishing a shade behind one proven Kentucky Derby contender (Big Truck) while defeating another (War Pass).  Look for another solid effort in the Illinois Derby.

Atoned is a son of the millionaire Repent (second-place finisher to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby).  Icecapade, the broodmare sire of Atoned, is a son of Shenanigans, sire of the brilliant and ill-fated filly Ruffian.

[#5] Denis Of Cork - Minutes before the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Denis Of Cork sauntered out onto the track like he owned it.  A physically imposing colt with a brown coat and muscles rippling, Denis Of Cork seemed like a movie star among commoners as he paraded past the stands.  A few minutes later in the Southwest Stakes, Denis Of Cork made a big, sweeping move on the turn for home and raced past the leaders in mid-stretch to win going away with emphasis.  It's been a month since the Southwest win, but Denis Of Cork did his main work for the Illinois Derby last Sunday at Churchill, completing five furlongs in a swift 59.60 seconds.  He's ready.  

Just who is Denis Of Cork?  He is a 3-year-old son of Harlan’s Holiday trained by David Carroll.  David Carroll is very talented, and Denis Of Cork couldn’t be in better hands.  Denis Of Cork’s sire Harlan's Holiday won six graded stakes from 2001 to 2003 on conventional dirt, including the G1 Florida Derby.  Harlan’s Holiday earned an eye-opening $3.6 million in 22 lifetime starts and raced exclusively on dirt.  Harlan's Holiday is also the sire of Riley Tucker and the talented filly Tasha's Miracle.  Denis Of Cork is a perfect three-for-three and the Southwest was his first stakes race.  One of his wins came over a sloppy track at the Fair Grounds where he showed he was a fighter, overcoming a terribly unruly surface to get up in the final strides.  In the Southwest, Denis Of Cork defeated a solid group that included Sierra Sunset, Liberty Bull, Riley Ticker (half-brother to Denis Of Cork), and Turf War.  Denis Of Cork earned a 96 Beyer and he did it on a demanding Oaklawn course where good Beyer figures don't come cheap.  He is the main one to watch today, and the pace looks to be just honest enough to set the stage for his customary stretch run.

[#6] Golden Spikes –Golden Spikes enters the Illinois Derby off a tiring fifth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth.  Earlier this winter, Golden Spikes finished a close second to Cool Coal Man under allowance conditions.  Trainer Martin Wolfson had considered turning Golden Spikes back to seven furlongs or a mile, but after consulting with the colt's owners decided to keep Golden Spikes on the Kentucky Derby trail, wherever it may lead.  Wolfson secured the services of Hawthorne's leading jockey, Tim Thornton, to ride Golden Spikes in the Illinois Derby, and that can't hurt his chances.  Golden Spikes is normally based at Calder, and that's where he's been preparing for his Illinois Derby start.  Last week, Golden Spikes worked a half-mile in 49.40 seconds over a sluggish Calder main track and galloped out to five furlongs into a stiff headwind in 1:03.08.

Sire is Seeking The Gold.  Seeking the Gold, a son of Mr. Prospector, is a proven, effective stallion for conventional dirt racing.  It was Seeking the Gold who finished second to Alysheba in the 1988 Breeders Cup Classic.  The dam of Golden Spikes is A P Interest, a daughter of A P Indy.  Golden Spikes has a classic pedigree for conventional dirt.  The only thing missing is an aptitude for tactical speed, which is an important ingredient for a Triple Crown contender.

 Last Week's Results  

The winning favorite Big Brown tossed a shutout against Horse-Race-Handicapping.com in the Florida Derby.  Big Brown becomes the first horse to win from the 12th post position at 1 1/8 miles since the Gulfstream Park main course was reconfigured in 2005.  Our value plays Fierce Wind [#1], Cool Gator [#5] and Majestic Warrior [#10] finished tenth, fifth, and sixth, respectively.  We'll be back next week for an in-depth look at another Kentucky Derby prep..  

$2   Exacta  (12-2)  Paid $68.80
$2   Trifecta  (12-2-4)  Paid $702.80
$2   Superfecta  (12-2-4-9)  Paid $5,822.80