Saturday April 12, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 9th at Keeneland: Keeneland 9th (5:18 EDT)
Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes 
1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000
 

Prg #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Cool Coal Man	Desormeaux K J	Zito Nicholas P	4-1
2	Kentucky Bear	Theriot H J II	Baker Reade	50-1
3	Cowboy Cal	Velazquez J R	Pletcher Todd A	15-1
4	Stevil	Bejarano R	Zito Nicholas P	30-1
5	Monba	Prado E S	Pletcher Todd A	15-1
6	Big Truck	Coa E M	Tagg Barclay	6-1
7	Pyro	Bridgmohan S X	Asmussen Steven M	1-1
8	Stone Bird	Lanerie C J	Lukas D Wayne	50-1
9	Medjool	Baze M C	Hofmans David	30-1
10	Miner's Claim	Husbands P	Casse Mark	20-1
11	Halo Najib	Gomez G K	Romans Dale	15-1
12	Visionaire	Lezcano J	Matz Michael R	6-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 9th at Keeneland

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates that #7 (Pyro) is an unattractive underlay.  And that makes several others in the Blue Grass field attractive betting opportunities.  Our top four value plays #3 (Cowboy Cal), #5 (Monba),  #6 (Big Truck) and #11 (Halo Najib) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our top value plays:  #3 (Cowboy Cal), #5 (Monba),  #6 (Big Truck).

 A Preview Of The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes  [Keeneland Race 9]

[#1] Cool Coal Man - Trainer Nick Zito would have preferred to prep Cool Coal Man on conventional dirt instead of Polytrack, but Zito is quick to cite the success of Street Sense last year.  Despite getting upset by Dominican in the G1 Blue Grass (on Polytrack) Street Sense came back strong to win the Kentucky Derby.  Zito opted to give Cool Coal Man an additional two weeks of training in preparation for the Blue Grass instead of running him in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream (as originally planned).  Cool Coal Man looked fantastic winning the G2 Fountain of Youth on the front end, but the Fountain of Youth appears more and more to be a weak "key race."  Fountain of Youth third-place finisher Court Vision finished third in a slowly run edition of the G1 Wood Memorial (won by Tale Of Ekati).  That may be the best result of a Fountain of Youth participant.  Second-place finisher Elysium Fields came back to run a horrible Florida Derby, finishing eleventh of twelve.  Golden Spikes finished second in the Illinois Derby off a fifth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth.  At first glance it was a good result, but Golden Spikes lost to a relatively unknown longshot (Recapturetheglory).  Fountain of Youth fourth-place finisher Z Humor finished third in the Illinois Derby, about a length behind Golden Spikes.  The original official wining time of the Fountain of Youth was fist reported as 1:51.85 and then revised to 1:50.07 (due to a clock malfunction).  Either way it was a slowly run Fountain of Youth, and the onus is on Cool Coal Man to prove he's the real deal.   

Sire Mineshaft is a son of A. P. Indy.  Mineshaft was a millionaire twice over and he did it by winning no less than six graded stakes in 2003 (four of them grade one).  Interestingly enough Mineshaft did not beat a lot of top flight horses during his streak.  Mineshaft specialized on conventional dirt and excelled at distances from 1 1/8 miles up to a mile and a quarter.  Mineshaft's daddy A. P. Indy is the most influential dirt sire in the past decade.  Cool Coal Man's broodmare sire Mr. Prospector is, in my book, the finest Triple Crown sire in history.  Descendants of Mr. Prospector have won more Triple Crown races than any other stallion.  Mr. Prospector also offers reasonable Polytrack aptitude, but the overall pedigree of Cool Coal Man is better suited to conventional dirt than to synthetic surfaces.

[#2] Kentucky Bear - The seventh-place finisher in the Fountain of Youth, Kentucky Bear is yet another refugee from our negative key race (Fountain of Youth).  Kentucky Bear entered the Fountain of Youth off an impressive 6 1/2-length maiden special weight win (earning a 93 Beyer).  Trainer Reade Baker considered entering his inexperienced 3-year-old in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, but instead opted for the Blue Grass Stakes and the Keeneland Polytrack racing surface.

Sire Mr. Greeley earned over $420,000 as a brilliant middle distance sprinter (1995) from six to seven furlongs (strictly on conventional dirt).  Kentucky Bear's broodmare sire Afleet earned just short of a million dollars and was a top handicap horse at distances up to 1 1/6 miles.  Mr. Prospector ( arguably the most influential Triple Crown sire) is present in both the male and female lines of Kentucky Bear.  Mr. Prospector is responsible for 25% of the pedigree of Kentucky Bear.  There are two stallions in the Kentucky Bear pedigree (Nijinsky and Gone West) that suggest Polytrack aptitude.  The overall pedigree of Mr. Kentucky is pretty well balanced, but it's not ideally suited for routes on synthetic tracks.

[#3] Cowboy Cal - To be honest, I never heard of Cowboy Cal until the day after the Breeders Cup pre-entries were drawn last year.  Then I learned he was trained by Todd Pletcher, and that prior to his maiden debut Cowboy Cal worked head-to-head with King Of The Roxy.  That was quite a statement of confidence by Pletcher in his young charge.  Cowboy Cal had a forgettable debut on conventional dirt but came to life in his turf debut at Belmont Park.  It’s not just that Cowboy Cal won but the way he did it, posting 46.38 for the half, relaxing at a nice 24.64 clip for the third quarter, and igniting the after-burners for a 23.16 final quarter.  That works out to a heck of a time (1:34.18) for a one mile grass debut.  Cowboy Cal parlayed his maiden win into a three race winning streak including the Laurel Futurity and the G3 Tropical Park Derby, both on grass, and both authoritative wins.  Cowboy Cal's victims during the streak include Lane's End winner Adriano, Hallandale Beach Stakes winner Why Tonto, and Cannonball (third-place finisher in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf).  Cowboy Cal finally lost a race, the Hallandale Beach, when he was run down by Why Tonto after setting torrid early fractions.  The big question is how will Cowboy Cal handle the surface change from grass to Polytrack.  We look to his pedigree for answers.

Cowboy Cal is a 3-year-old colt by Giant’s Causeway out of the Seeking the Gold mare Texas Tammy.  In his career Giant's Causeway was a $3 million earner and the 2000 European champion is proving to be an outstanding and versatile stallion (for all surfaces).  Seeking the Gold, a son of Mr. Prospector, is a very effective stallion for conventional dirt racing.  It was Seeking the Gold who finished second to Alysheba in the 1988 Breeders Cup Classic.  And let's not forget Storm Cat, the sire of Giant's Causeway, who may be the most important synthetic track stallion on record.  Todd Pletcher has good reason to be optimistic about Cowboy Cal's chances in the G1 Blue Grass.

[#4] Stevil - Florida-based Stevil’s pedigree indicates he may be not want to go longer than a mile, although Polytrack should not be a problem.  I thought Stevil was a surprise entry in the Louisiana Derby by trainer Nick Zito, however Stevil managed a fifth-place finish (better than I expected).  Stevil is still inexperienced, and he figures to face substantial early pressure in the Blue Grass, and then he has to deal with Monba, Big Truck, and Pyro in the lane.  Stevil lost three entry level allowance races in a row before his fifth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, and he has to be considered an outsider. 

Stevil is a half-brother (by a common sire Maria’s Mon) to the Todd Pletcher trained Monba.  Monba and Stevil are both in Kentucky (for the Blue Grass) trying their luck on the Keeneland Polytrack.  Let’s look at my notes on Maria’s Mon from Monba’s pedigree:  “Monba is son of Maria's Mon, sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.  Monarchos is a half-brother to the 2006 Eclipse award winning filly Wait A While.  It is no accident Wait A While excelled on the grass, because Maria's Mon owns a pedigree rich in turf aptitude (from Wavering Monarch, Majestic Light and Caro).“  While Monba’s broodmare sire is Easy Goer, Stevil’s broodmare sire is Storm Creek (a son of Storm Cat).  Storm Creek won $143,000 in 14 starts (as a miler) and his father Storm Cat is an excellent source of Polytrack aptitude.

[#5] Monba – Monba won his career debut at Keeneland last October, and followed with a win in a first-level allowance at Churchill Downs.  Todd Pletcher trains Monba, who's worst race to-date was the Fountain of Youth.  Monba finished a distant twelfth (last) after getting roughed up on the first turn while racing in a group with Ready Set, Kentucky Bear, and Elysium Fields.  Monba came out of the race with an ugly abrasion on his right rear leg, and he also underwent minor throat surgery since the Fountain of Youth.  A rested, healthy Monba looks to rebound on a friendlier surface, the Keeneland Polytrack.  And he certainly has the pedigree to handle a synthetic track.  Last December, Monba was fourth on the synthetic Cushion Track surface at Hollywood Park in the CashCall Futurity.  The top three finishers in the CashCall were Into Mischief, Colonel John, and Massive Drama, all have proved to be serious race horses.  Monba was gaining on the trio after languishing near the back of the back for much of the early going.  Monba is going to get a good pace to run at in the Blue Grass, and Monba may well be good enough to win.

Monba is son of Maria's Mon, sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.  Monarchos is a half-brother to the 2006 Eclipse award winning filly Wait A While.  It is no accident Wait A While excelled on the grass, because Maria's Mon owns a pedigree rich in turf aptitude (from Wavering Monarch, Majestic Light and Caro).  Monba's broodmare sire Easy Goer earned an astounding $4.8 million from 1988-1990 as one of the most powerful handicap horses in recent memory.  A son of Alydar, Easy Goer won nine grade one stakes, and specialized at the classic distances on conventional dirt.  The important turf stallion Prince John is present in Monba's female line, complementing an already rich and balanced pedigree.

[#6] Big Truck - Don't get in this guy's lane, this bad boy is a fighter.  Last year in the G2 Remsen (won by Court Vision) Big Truck was stopped cold and forced to re-break not once, but twice, and still managed to finish a respectable fourth in a brutally run race.  This year, Big Truck was defeated by Fierce Wind in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, but mounted a very strong late rally to gain second and was wearing down the winner.  Everything came together for the long striding, big brown colt in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.  While odds-on favorite War Pass was gasping for air on the turn for home, Big Truck put together his signature run, steady and powerful, to wear down Atoned for the victory.  Big Truck's winning time (1:44.13) for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby is not too shabby, and he's had four weeks to recuperate for the G1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Sire Hook And Ladder earned $388,000 in 19 starts from 2001-2002 and defeated Trippi in the 2001 Gulfstream B.C. Sprint Handicap.  Hook And Ladder was strictly a sprinter, and strictly on conventional dirt.  Broodmare sire Cox's Ridge was a tremendous handicap horse (also on conventional dirt) with multiple graded stakes wins.  The Irish-bred Turn-To, second-sire of Cox's Ridge, is my favorite turf sire of all time.  Turn-To brings versatility, balance, and stamina to the pedigree of Big Truck. 

[#7] Pyro - Pyro and Big Brown are the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby as we draw closer to the May classic.  Pyro has nothing to prove, so his connections may (no guarantees) employ a stalking strategy in the Blue Grass to tighten the screws for the Kentucky Derby.  We all know Pyro finished second to War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, and that he was closing fast despite the sloppy going.  We also know Pyro made his 2008 debut at the Fair Grounds a memorable one with a rapid last-to-first move to win the Risen Star Stakes going away.  And we know Pyro uncorked yet another big stretch run to capture the the Louisiana Derby (also at the Fair Grounds) just weeks later.  Still, there are protractors who complain that Pyro's Beyer speed figures this year are not on a par with the 106 Big Brown earned in the Florida Derby.  This may be true, but it's easy to forget that Pyro earned a 105 Beyer in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile.  This followed a 100 Beyer effort in a second place finish (also to War Pass) in the Champagne at Belmont.  Also overlooked is Pyro's preference for longer routes of ground.  Pyro has been racing (and winning) at 1 1/6 miles this year, while his ideal distance is going to be longer.  And remember, the Kentucky Derby is run at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. 

The Kentucky Derby is run on conventional dirt, while the Blue Grass is run on Polytrack, and that in baseball terms is "a whole new ball game."  We feel we really know Pyro, but the truth is we don't know if he will positively relish Polytrack.  Just because Pyro is a classic stone cold closer on conventional dirt does not mean it will translate to Polytrack.  The bottom line, it could create a window of opportunity for us to try and beat Pyro today.   

Pyro is regally bred, a son of 1997 Fountain of Youth winner Pulpit.  Pulpit is a son of the classic stallion A. P. Indy.  The sire line of Pulpit is Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat) and that generally indicates an affinity to conventional dirt.  Pulpit won four of six starts (all on conventional dirt) for earnings of $712,000 and won both the 1997 Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes.  Another famous son of Pulpit is Corinthian.  Pyro's broodmare sire Wild Again earned over $2.2 million from 1982-1985 and won the inaugural Breeders Cup Classic in 1984.  Pyro's pedigree is a perfect fit for the Kentucky Derby, and it's only a reasonable fit for the Blue Grass Stakes.

 Last Week's Results  

In the G2 Illinois Derby, Horse-Race-Handicapping.com narrowly missed the huge SUPERFECTA payoff of $3,245.60 for $2.  The winning combination of 1-6-3-4 featured a 15-to-1 longshot in front, and Horse-Race-Handicapping.com had 1/2/5/6 with ALL with ALL with 1/2/5/6.  

$2   Exacta  (1-6)  Paid $180.80
$2   Trifecta  (1-6-3)  Paid $789.60
$2   Superfecta  (1-6-3-4)  Paid $3,245.60