Saturday April 12, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 11th at Oaklawn Park: Oaklawn Park 11th (5:44 CDT)
Grade 2 Arkansas Derby 
1 1/8 Miles (Main Track) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
 

Prg #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Victory Pete	Potts C L	Barba Alexis	12-1
2	Tres Borrachos	Baze T C	Greely C Beau	20-1
3	King's Silver Son	Quinonez L S	Asmussen Steven M	6-1
4	Gayego	Smith M E	Lobo Paulo H	5-2
5	Isabull	Doocy T T	Hobby Steve	20-1
6	My Pal Charlie	Leparoux J R	Stall Albert M Jr	12-1
7	Blackberry Road	Borel C H	Carroll David	8-1
8	Liberty Bull	Razo E Jr	Amoss Thomas	6-1
9	Golden Yank	Sterling L J Jr	Thomas Gary A	15-1
10	Z Fortune	Albarado R J	Asmussen Steven M	9-2
11	Indian Sun	Migliore R	Hendricks Dan L	12-1
12F	Shekinah	Emigh C A	Stewart Dallas	12-1
13F	Ablaze With Spirit	Berry M C	Asmussen Steven M	12-1
14F	Jazz in the Park	Mena M	Barnett Bobby C	12-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 11th at Oaklawn Park

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #7 (Blackberry Road) and #9 (Golden Yank) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our value plays:  #7 (Blackberry Road) and #9 (Golden Yank).

 A Preview Of The Grade 2 Arkansas Derby  [Oaklawn Park Race 11]

[#1] Victory Pete - Florida-bred broke his maiden on the Santa Anita turf on January 10.  Best finish in a graded stakes was a third in the G3 Sham (March 1) behind Colonel John and El Gato Malo.  It sounds better than it looked, though, because Victory Pete was allowed to set a slow, uncontested pace in a short field.  He ended up splitting a five-horse field, 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner Colonel John.  Prior to the Sham, Victory Pete finished third in the California Derby at Golden Gate.  West Coast synthetic track specialist Yankee Bravo won, Tres Borrachos finished fourth, and Medjool finished sixth. 

Sire Five Star Day was a three-time graded stakes winner (1999-2001) and he was a pure sprinter just like his daddy Carson City.  Carson City's sire is Mr. Prospector, an excellent source of speed.  Five Star Day's broodmare sire Tabasco Cat won 8 of 18 starts for $2.3 million.  Tabasco Cat had a difficult temperament and is remembered for inflicting a serious head injury to Jeff Lukas (son of D Wayne Lukas).  On the racetrack, Tabasco Cat had a break out year in 1994 and won several important stakes (including the Preakness and Belmont).  Storm Cat (Tabasco Cat's sire) provides more speed for the Five Star Day pedigree.

[#2] Tres Borrachos finished third in the El Camino Real Derby (March 8) at Bay Meadows, his first race on conventional dirt.  Tres Borrachos earned a career-best Beyer figure of 82.  That’s not exactly Triple Crown quality, but it was good enough to convince trainer Beau Greely to enter Tres Borrachos in the G2 Arkansas Derby.  Tres Borrachos started the year with a fourth-place finish in the California Derby at Golden Gate (on Tapeta Track).  The winner of the California Derby was West Coast synthetic track specialist Yankee Bravo, while Lane’s End third-place finisher Medjool finished sixth.   

Sire Ecton Park earned $1.5 million and finished third in the 1999 Arkansas Derby.  Ecton Park’s sire Forty Niner won over $2.7 million in an outstanding career that featured seven graded stakes wins from 1987-1988.  Peteski, the broodmare sire of Tres Borrachos, earned $1.2 million and won the 1993 Canadian Triple Crown (Queen’s Plate Stakes, Prince of Wales Stakes and Breeders Stakes).

[#3] King's Silver Son – It was a big surprise to me when King's Silver Son finished second (behind Sierra Sunset) in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn.  In fact, I wrote this before the race:  “With a pedigree that includes names like Mizzen Mast, Cozzene, Caro, Graustark, Ribot, Dynaformer, and Roberto, one pervading thought comes to mind.  Why isn't King's Silver Son racing on turf or synthetic surfaces instead of dirt?”   My reasoning was sound, so I thought.  King's Silver Son already had three second-pace finishes on Polytrack.  And I thought Steve Asmussen was giving King's Silver Son a race before he lost form, not having raced since he broke his maiden January 21 at the Fair Grounds.  King's Silver Son surprised us all and closed late to get up for second.  I wasn’t totally off the mark.  I also wrote this before the race:   “There is a chance King's Silver Son may close late to get a piece in the Rebel, but only if the pace collapses.”  Well the pace did collapse, in a sense.  Sacred Journey set torrid fractions (just as he did in the Southwest) and set the stage for the stalker Sierra Sunset to win.  And it also allowed  King’s Silver Son to pass a multitude of tired horses.  That’s not to take anything away from King's Silver Son’s second-place finish, but let’s not get overly excited.  After all, he didn’t come close to winning the race, and before the Rebel it took King's Silver Son six attempts to break his maiden. 

[#4] Gayego - Gayego is improving at just the right time (albeit on Cushion Track).  His spirited second to Georgie Boy in the G2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita represents Gayego's debut around two turns (as it was Georgie Boy's) and the results were promising.  Before trying two turns Gayego succeeded in the San Pedro (also at Santa Anita) at 6 1/2 panels on Cushion Track.  In the San Pedro, Gayego recorded a new track record for 6 1/2 furlongs at 1:13.07.  One has to absorb that bit of information with a grain of salt, because in January the Santa Anita Cushion Track was producing certifiably insane winning times.  Gayego impressed his trainer Paulo Lobo so much with his San Felipe effort that Lobo is thinking Kentucky Derby for the talented colt.  The Santa Anita Derby was to be the litmus test, but Lobo opted to give his colt another week of preparation and ship to Arkansas for the G2 Arkansas Derby.  This will be the second graded stakes appearance for Gayego.

Gayego's sire Gilded Time earned $975,980 in only six career starts from 1992-1993, the most prestigious being a win in the 1992 Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Gilded Time's female line includes the dramatic combination of Bold Ruler and Princequillo.  Bold Ruler is in my eyes the finest progenitor of classic dirt runners (and stallions) in the world, while the same can be said for Princequillo with regard to turf racing.  Gayego's broodmare sire Lost Code was a prolific graded stakes winner (ten graded stakes wins from 1987-1988) specializing at 1 1/8 miles on conventional dirt.  Lost Code is also broodmare sire to the brilliant sprinter Fabulous Strike.  Gayego owns a rich pedigree to be sure, and it looks better suited to traditional dirt than synthetic surfaces.  Maybe that’s why trainer Paulo Lobo opted for the Arkansas Derby.

[#5] Isabull – A son of Holy Bull, Isabull returned from two months off to finish a strong second (to Liberty Bull) in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January.  This came after failing to break through first allowance conditions at Churchill Downs, although one of those losses was to Monba.  The problem with Isabull is his inconsistency, for example he threw in a clunker in the Southwest, just four weeks after his good Smarty Jones effort.  Trainer Steve Hobby doesn't win too many big stakes, and the G2 Arkansas Derby is about as big as it gets (in April) for a 3-year-old.  Isabull tuned up in the G2 Rebel four weeks ago, and he held a good account of himself, rallying for third place (although not threatening the top two).  On again, off again, that's  Isabull for you.

Isabull, a son of Holy Bull and grandson of Miswaki, is certainly bred to run well, and  Isabull does has valuable experience over the Oaklawn course.   Isabull seems to appreciate the Oaklawn track, and that could make him attractive as a dark horse in the Arkansas Derby.  But don't count your chickens!

[#6] My Pal Charlie – I underestimated this fellow in the Louisiana Derby, where he shocked everybody (at 60-to-1 odds) and finished second behind Pyro and ahead of Yankee Bravo, Blackberry Road, Tale Of Ekati and Majestic Warrior.  He did it with speed over a speed-favoring strip (Fair Grounds).  But the Arkansas Derby is run at Oaklawn Park, and Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds are like apples and oranges (despite both being conventional dirt).  Oaklawn is a thoroughly fair dirt surface and I consider the Fair Grounds to be a speed-favoring dirt surface.  That’s not good news for fans of My Pal Charlie, who has to be considered a speed horse despite his showing in the Louisiana Derby.  This is what I said about May Pal Charlie prior to the Louisiana Derby:  “My Pal Charlie has just a single victory and he should be no match for the greater talents of Pyro, Tale Of Ekati, and Blackberry Road.  He may, however, contribute to the pace, and in doing so, he would help the same horses he is trying to beat.”  O.K., I was way off, I admit it, but my words have more relevance today in the Arkansas Derby.

Sire Indian Charlie earned $516,000 in only five starts in 1988 winning the Santa Anita Derby and finishing third in the Kentucky Derby the same year.  Indian Charlie raced strictly on conventional dirt, but his sire In Excess was more versatile.  A millionaire earner, In Excess was a brilliant miler who could win on grass or dirt, although his most important wins (and most of his opportunities) came on dirt.  In Excess won the G1 Metropolitan, the G1 Woodward, the G1 Strub, and the G1 Whitney all in 1991, and all on conventional dirt.  Indian Charlie’s broodmare sire Leo Castelli had a more modest career (winning only $257,000) but provides a measure of Polytrack aptitude from his sire Sovereign Dancer (a son of Northern Dancer).  Indian Sun’s broodmare sire Alleged is a premium source of turf aptitude, having won nine of ten starts (all on grass) including the 1978 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp.

Note:  Shekinah, Ablaze With Spirit and Jazz In The Park are all part of the mutuel field and are #12 In your program.

[#12f] Shekinah – Shekinah impressed by defeating quality 4-year-olds in a first-level allowance at Oaklawn Park (March 16).  Shekinah dueled in the one-mile affair, going on to win by a three-length margin under Calvin Borel, and earning a career-best Beyer of 92.  Trainer Dallas Stewart opted for the Arkansas Derby over the Northern Spur.  Before his victory at Oaklawn, Shekinah finished fourth (to My Pal Charlie) in a first-level allowance at the Fair Grounds.  My Pal Charlie went on to run a surprising second to Pyro in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Sire Johannesburg is famous for winning the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile (on conventional dirt) but he was much more accomplished as a sprinter on grass.  Johannesburg’s sire Hennessy was also prolific as a juvenile.  Shekinah’s broodmare sire Private Account won a pair of grade one stakes on dirt in 1980.  Private Account’s sire Damascus is one of the more influential sires of the modern age.  Damascus won 21 of 32 starts for over $1.1 million (back when a million dollars meant something).

[#13f] Ablaze With Spirit – Won a minor stakes (the Jim Orbit) at Sam Houston on sloppy going over Gold Coyote.  Followed that up with an energetic third-place finish in the Winstar Derby (Sunland Park).  From Liberty Bull’s profile:  “Liberty Bull won the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park last out.  The horse he beat, Screen To Screen, was a maiden making his stakes debut.  . . . The conclusion we have to draw is that the WinStar came up weak, even though Liberty Bull did his job.”  That’s why Ablaze With Spirit has been made part of the Mutuel Field (along with Shekinah and Jazz In The Park).  Ablaze With Spirit  is on a par with Shekinah, and perhaps a head better than Jazz In The Park.

Sire American Spirit won 5 of 25 career starts for earnings of $344,000 and was competitive on both grass and dirt.  Broodmare sire Wekiva Springs won 10 of 21 starts for over $1.5 million and provides speed and balance to America Spirit’s pedigree.

[#14f] Jazz In The Park – Jazz In The Park was of ten late nominees to the Triple Crown.  The late nomination stage ended March 29 and included My Pal Charlie (second to Pyro in Louisiana Derby) and Big Glen (defeated Miner’s Claim in Rushaway).  That makes Jazz In The Park eligible for the Triple Crown. but he has yet to make his mark in a stakes race.  He defeated first-level allowance competition at the Fair Grounds in March (and he has also lost three races).

Jazz In The Park is a half-brother (by a common sire Ecton Park) to Tres Borrachos.  For notes on Ecton Park, we turn to the pedigree of Tres Borrachos:  “Sire Ecton Park earned $1.5 million and finished third in the 1999 Arkansas Derby.  Ecton Park’s sire Forty Niner won over $2.7 million in an outstanding career that featured seven graded stakes wins from 1987-1988.”  Jazz In The Park’s broodmare sire Kentucky Jazz won only 3 races in 11 starts (for earnings of $124,700) but his sire Dixieland Band had more success.  Dixieland Band earned over $400,000 and won a pair of grade 3 stakes (on conventional dirt).
 

 Wager Recommendation Grade 2 Arkansas Derby  [Oaklawn Park Race 11]

For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 7 ($100)
$25 Exacta 7 with 1/3/4/8/9/10 ($150)
$20 Exacta 9/10 with 7 ($40)
10¢ Superfecta 7 with ALL with 1/3/4/8/9/10 with ALL ($54)
Total Wagers $344

For "Lighter" Bettors
$5 Win-Place 7 ($10)
$3 Exacta 7 with 1/3/4/8/9/10 ($18)
$2 Exacta 9/10 with 7 ($4)
Total Wagers $32

For "Sharpshooter" Bettors
10¢ Superfecta 7 with ALL with 1/10 with ALL ($18)
Total Wagers $18

For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 7 ($100)
$20 Win 9 ($20)
Total Wagers $120

For "Power Ball" Bettors
10¢ Superfecta 1/3/7 with ALL with 9 with ALL ($27)
Total Wagers $27

 Last Week's Results  

In the G2 Illinois Derby, Horse-Race-Handicapping.com narrowly missed the huge SUPERFECTA payoff of $3,245.60 for $2.  The winning combination of 1-6-3-4 featured a 15-to-1 longshot in front, and Horse-Race-Handicapping.com had 1/2/5/6 with ALL with ALL with 1/2/5/6.  

$2   Exacta  (1-6)  Paid $180.80
$2   Trifecta  (1-6-3)  Paid $789.60
$2   Superfecta  (1-6-3-4)  Paid $3,245.60