"HRH Toteboard For The Grade 2
Arkansas Derby (11th Race At Oaklawn Park, Saturday,
April 12,
2008)"
In my view the G2
Arkansas Derby has steadily become the most important
Triple Crown prep. Several Arkansas Derby past winners have gone on to win
important Grade 1 races such as 1980 winner Temperence Hill, 1998
winner Victory Gallop and 2005 winner Afleet Alex who all went on to
win the Belmont Stakes. Sunny's Halo won the 1983 Kentucky Derby as did Smarty Jones in 2004.
Duel Arkansas Derby and Preakness winners include Elocutionist (1976), Tank's Prospect (1985), Pine Bluff (1992),
Afleet Alex (2005) and Curlin (2006). The 1994 winner Concern won the Breeders Cup Classic
the same year and Curlin won the Classic and the Dubai
World Cup in 2007. The 2006 Arkansas Derby winner
Lawyer Ron went on to win the Grade 1 Metroplotian, the
Grade 1 Whitney and the Grade 1 Woodward.
Today we handicap the $1,000,000 Grade 2 Arkansas Derby
for 3-year-olds to be contested at 1 1/8 miles over the
Oaklawn Park main course. The Grade 2 Arkansas Derby is the
11th race on the card at
Oaklawn Park.
Saturday's race is off at 6:44 p.m. EDT (5:44 p.m. CDT, 3:44 p.m. PDT).
Reserve The
Kentucky Derby 2008
Edition
Full Card
Selections And Wager Strategy For
The Full Kentucky Derby Day Card
Patented Computer Analysis For The Kentucky Derby
All You Need For The First Jewel Of The Triple Crown
ORDER
NOW
All For
$7.79
From
Horse Race Handicapping.com
For
Information
Click Here
For
All 3 Triple Crown Full Cards
Click Here
Let's get down to business. As promised, here is the
analysis of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. Good luck.
The System Toteboard
Gives You The Advantage
Today we employ a tool
introduced by
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
, the
System Toteboard.
Here is the field for the 11th at
Oaklawn Park:
Oaklawn Park 11th (5:44
CDT)
Grade 2
Arkansas Derby
1 1/8 Miles (Main Track) |
3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Trainer |
ML |
|
1 |
Victory Pete |
Potts C L |
Barba Alexis |
12-1 |
|
2 |
Tres Borrachos |
Baze T C |
Greely C Beau |
20-1 |
|
3 |
King's Silver Son |
Quinonez L S |
Asmussen Steven M |
6-1 |
|
4 |
Gayego |
Smith M E |
Lobo Paulo H |
5-2 |
|
5 |
Isabull |
Doocy T T |
Hobby Steve |
20-1 |
|
6 |
My Pal Charlie |
Leparoux J R |
Stall Albert M Jr |
12-1 |
|
7 |
Blackberry Road |
Borel C H |
Carroll David |
8-1 |
|
8 |
Liberty Bull |
Razo E Jr |
Amoss Thomas |
6-1 |
|
9 |
Golden Yank |
Sterling L J Jr |
Thomas Gary A |
15-1 |
|
10 |
Z Fortune |
Albarado R J |
Asmussen Steven M |
9-2 |
|
11 |
Indian Sun |
Migliore R |
Hendricks Dan L |
12-1 |
|
12F |
Shekinah |
Emigh C A |
Stewart Dallas |
12-1 |
|
13F |
Ablaze With Spirit |
Berry M C |
Asmussen Steven M |
12-1 |
|
14F |
Jazz in the Park |
Mena M |
Barnett Bobby C |
12-1 |
Copyright 2008 Daily
Racing Form
Step 1.
Compare
the odds on the
System Toteboard to the
Morning Line
odds for the race.
Here are the two toteboards:
Morning Line Odds for the 11th at Oaklawn
Park
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#1 |
#2
|
#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
|
#7 |
#8
|
#9 |
#10 |
#11
|
#12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
20 |
6 |
5:2 |
20 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
15 |
9:2 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
System Toteboard Odds for the
11th at Oaklawn Park
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#1 |
#2
|
#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
|
#7 |
#8
|
#9 |
#10 |
#11 |
#12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
22 |
10 |
7:2 |
20 |
14 |
4 |
9 |
14 |
6 |
16 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Step 2. Copy down the program number,
System
Toteboard odds, and Morning
Line odds of every horse having
Morning Line odds
higher
than the System Toteboard odds.
|
Program Number |
System Toteboard odds |
Morning Line odds |
|
#7 |
4.0 |
8.0 |
|
#9 |
14.0 |
15.0 |
Step 3.
Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract
the System Toteboard odds from the
Morning Line odds. Now
divide the result by the System Toteboard odds. Copy this
number down for each horse.
|
Program Number |
Morning Line
odds - System Toteboard odds |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
|
#7 |
4.0 |
1.00 |
|
#9 |
1.0 |
0.07 |
Step 4. List the horses
from Step 3 from the
largest
red
number down to the
smallest
red number.
|
Program Number |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
|
#7 |
1.00 |
|
#9 |
0.07 |
Step
5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #7 (Blackberry
Road) and
#9 (Golden Yank) are the Key value horses for our wagers. We incorporate these
horses into our betting strategy. Here is the low down on the race and
our final strategy to win!
You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the
board on our value plays: #7 (Blackberry Road) and
#9 (Golden Yank).
A
Preview Of
The Grade 2 Arkansas Derby [Oaklawn
Park Race 11]
[#1] Victory Pete - Florida-bred broke his maiden on the Santa Anita
turf on January 10. Best finish in a graded stakes was a third in
the G3 Sham (March 1) behind Colonel John and
El Gato Malo. It sounds better than it looked, though, because
Victory Pete was allowed to set a slow, uncontested pace in a short
field. He ended up splitting a five-horse field, 3 1/2 lengths
behind the winner Colonel John. Prior to the Sham, Victory Pete finished third in the California Derby at Golden
Gate. West Coast synthetic track specialist Yankee Bravo won, Tres Borrachos
finished fourth, and Medjool finished sixth.
Sire Five Star Day was a three-time graded stakes winner (1999-2001) and
he was a pure sprinter just like his daddy Carson City. Carson
City's sire is Mr. Prospector, an excellent source of speed. Five
Star Day's broodmare sire Tabasco Cat won 8 of 18 starts for $2.3
million. Tabasco Cat had a difficult temperament and is remembered
for inflicting a serious head injury to Jeff Lukas (son of D Wayne
Lukas). On the racetrack, Tabasco Cat had a break out year in 1994
and won several important stakes (including the Preakness and Belmont).
Storm Cat (Tabasco Cat's sire) provides more speed for the Five Star Day
pedigree.
[#2] Tres Borrachos finished third in the El Camino Real Derby (March 8)
at Bay Meadows, his first race on conventional dirt. Tres Borrachos earned a
career-best Beyer figure of 82. That’s not exactly Triple Crown quality, but it
was good enough to convince trainer Beau Greely to enter Tres Borrachos in the
G2 Arkansas Derby. Tres Borrachos started the year with a fourth-place finish
in the California Derby at Golden Gate (on Tapeta Track). The winner of the
California Derby was West Coast synthetic track specialist Yankee Bravo, while
Lane’s End third-place finisher Medjool finished sixth. Sire Ecton Park earned $1.5 million and finished
third in the 1999 Arkansas Derby. Ecton Park’s sire Forty Niner
won over $2.7 million in an outstanding
career that featured seven graded stakes wins from 1987-1988. Peteski,
the broodmare sire of Tres Borrachos, earned $1.2 million and won
the 1993 Canadian Triple Crown (Queen’s Plate Stakes, Prince of Wales
Stakes and Breeders Stakes).
[#3]
King's Silver Son – It was a big surprise to me when King's Silver Son
finished second (behind Sierra Sunset) in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn. In
fact, I wrote this before the race: “With a pedigree that includes
names like Mizzen Mast, Cozzene, Caro, Graustark, Ribot, Dynaformer, and
Roberto, one pervading thought comes to mind. Why isn't King's Silver
Son racing on turf or synthetic surfaces instead of dirt?” My reasoning
was sound, so I thought. King's Silver Son already had three
second-pace finishes on Polytrack. And I thought Steve Asmussen was
giving King's Silver Son a race before he lost form, not having raced
since he broke his maiden January 21 at the Fair Grounds. King's
Silver Son surprised us all and closed late to get up for second. I
wasn’t totally off the mark. I also wrote this before the race:
“There is a chance King's Silver Son may close late to get a piece in
the Rebel, but only if the pace collapses.” Well the pace did collapse,
in a sense. Sacred Journey set torrid fractions (just as he did in the
Southwest) and set the stage for the stalker Sierra Sunset to win. And
it also allowed King’s Silver Son to pass a multitude of tired horses.
That’s not to take anything away from King's Silver Son’s second-place
finish, but let’s not get overly excited. After all, he didn’t come
close to winning the race, and before the Rebel it took King's Silver
Son six attempts to break his maiden.
[#4] Gayego - Gayego is
improving at just the right time (albeit on Cushion Track). His spirited second to Georgie Boy in the G2
San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita represents Gayego's debut around two turns (as
it was Georgie Boy's) and the results were promising. Before trying two turns Gayego succeeded in
the San Pedro (also at Santa Anita) at 6 1/2 panels on Cushion Track. In the San Pedro, Gayego recorded a new track
record for 6 1/2 furlongs at 1:13.07. One has to absorb that bit of information with
a grain of salt, because in January the Santa Anita Cushion Track was producing
certifiably insane winning times. Gayego
impressed his trainer Paulo Lobo so much with his San Felipe effort that Lobo
is thinking Kentucky Derby for the talented colt. The Santa Anita Derby was to be the litmus
test, but Lobo opted to give his colt another week of preparation and ship to
Arkansas for the G2 Arkansas Derby. This will be the second graded stakes
appearance for Gayego.
Gayego's sire Gilded Time earned $975,980 in only six career starts from
1992-1993, the most prestigious being a win in the 1992 Breeders Cup
Juvenile. Gilded Time's female line includes the dramatic combination of
Bold Ruler and Princequillo. Bold Ruler
is in my eyes the finest progenitor of classic dirt runners (and stallions) in
the world, while the same can be said for Princequillo with regard to turf
racing. Gayego's broodmare sire Lost
Code was a prolific graded stakes winner (ten graded stakes wins from
1987-1988) specializing at 1 1/8 miles on conventional dirt. Lost Code is also broodmare sire to the
brilliant sprinter Fabulous Strike. Gayego owns a rich pedigree to be sure, and it
looks better suited to traditional dirt than synthetic surfaces. Maybe that’s why trainer Paulo Lobo opted for
the Arkansas Derby.
[#5] Isabull – A son of Holy Bull, Isabull returned from two months off to finish a strong second (to Liberty Bull) in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January. This came after failing to break through first allowance conditions at Churchill
Downs, although one of those losses was to Monba. The problem
with Isabull is his inconsistency, for example he threw in a clunker in the Southwest, just four weeks after
his good Smarty Jones effort. Trainer Steve Hobby doesn't win too many big stakes, and the
G2 Arkansas Derby is about as big as it gets (in April) for a 3-year-old.
Isabull tuned up in the G2 Rebel four weeks ago, and he held a good account of himself, rallying for third place (although not
threatening the top two). On again, off again, that's Isabull for
you.
Isabull, a son of Holy Bull and grandson of Miswaki, is certainly bred to run well,
and Isabull does has valuable experience over the Oaklawn course.
Isabull seems to appreciate the Oaklawn track, and that could make
him attractive as a dark horse in the Arkansas Derby. But don't
count your chickens!
[#6]
My Pal Charlie – I underestimated this fellow in the Louisiana Derby, where he
shocked everybody (at 60-to-1 odds) and finished second behind Pyro and ahead
of Yankee Bravo, Blackberry Road, Tale Of
Ekati and Majestic Warrior. He did it
with speed over a speed-favoring strip (Fair Grounds). But the Arkansas Derby is run at
Oaklawn
Park, and Oaklawn
and the Fair Grounds are like apples and oranges (despite both being
conventional dirt). Oaklawn is a
thoroughly fair dirt surface and I consider the Fair Grounds to be a
speed-favoring dirt surface. That’s not
good news for fans of My Pal Charlie, who has to be considered a speed horse
despite his showing in the Louisiana Derby.
This is what I said about May Pal Charlie prior to the Louisiana
Derby: “My Pal Charlie has just a single victory and he should be no match for
the greater talents of Pyro, Tale Of Ekati, and Blackberry Road. He may,
however, contribute to the pace, and in doing so, he would help the same horses
he is trying to beat.” O.K., I was way
off, I admit it, but my words have more relevance today in the Arkansas Derby.
My Pal Charlie is a son of
Indian Charlie, winner of the 1998 Santa Anita Derby and third place finisher in
the Kentucky Derby the same year. My Pal
Charlie is a half-brother to Kohana (by virtue of their common sire Indian
Charlie). My Pal Charlie’s broodmare
sire Halo is one of the more versatile stallions in racing. Halo’s celebrated son Sunday Silence has
rejuvenated the entire Japanese breeding industry. Sunday Silence had a dream year in 1989,
winning the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders Cup
Classic, all on conventional dirt. But
with the influence of Halo’s second sire Turn-To, Sunday Silence has passed on
a tremendous turf aptitude to his progeny (and that is what is fueling the
turn-around in the Japanese breeding industry).
[#7]
Blackberry Road – My favorite "on the bubble" Kentucky Derby
contender Blackberry Road finally
surfaces in the G2 Arkansas Derby.
Blackberry Road is in desperate need of graded stakes earnings if he
wants to make the Kentucky Derby cut. Although Blackberry Road has won only one of his nine races so far, he is a
very real threat to win in the Arkansas Derby. Blackberry Road finished fifth in the Risen
Star Stakes (won by Pyro) but he was victimized by a horrible trip under rider
Calvin Borel. Trapped in tight on the
rail for the stretch run, Blackberry Road had nowhere to go.
In fact, he appeared to want more ground than the 8 ½ furlongs of the
Risen Star. In the Le Comte three months
ago (Fair Grounds) Blackberry Road closed gamely for second (to Z Fortune) and ran out
of ground in the one mile affair. When
he faced Pyro in the Louisiana Derby on March 8 Blackberry Road was
inexplicably sent early by rider Robbie Albarado. In my eyes this was a knee-jerk reaction by
his connections to avoid another troubled trip, but it backfired. Blackberry Road tired in the lane and finished
fourth (nipped by Yankee Bravo for the show).
This colt is a closer, a good one, and I’m glad to see Borel back in the
irons. Last November in the Kentucky
Juvenile Cup at Churchill
Downs Blackberry Road made up 14
lengths to miss by a half-length. He
needs a good trip today, and he could spring the upset. Blackberry Road has a lot of upside today in
the Arkansas Derby. No question.
Sire
Gone West is a good source of speed on all surfaces. Gone West’s sire Mr. Prospector provides a
lot of that speed, and it’s staying speed (the best kind). Gone West is also known as an excellent “off
track” sire. Broodmare sire
Strawberry
Road won $1.7 million in Australia and the U. S. on turf. Strawberry Road finished second
to Pebbles in the 1985 Breeders Cup Turf.
The second sire of Strawberry
Road is Nijinsky, a quality source for turf
aptitude. Blackberry Road has a very
well-balanced and high quality pedigree, and if things don’t work out on the
Triple Crown trail Blackberry Road will have a
lot of other options (down the road).
[#8] Liberty Bull – I’ve always been a big proponent of “key races.” And Liberty Bull has two
negative key races that diminish his accomplishments. Liberty Bull won the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park last out. The horse he beat, Screen To Screen, was a maiden making his stakes debut. In his only other race, Screen To Screen lost by a nose to Meetingwithdestiny in a maiden allowance. Meetingwithdestiny was trying to graduate the maiden ranks for the sixth time when he beat Screen To Screen. Meetingwithdestiny went on to race in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing eighth (at odds of 62-to-1). The conclusion we have to draw is that the WinStar came up weak, even though Liberty Bull did his job. Liberty Bull also won the Smarty Jones Stakes (here at Oaklawn Park). He defeated Isabull (second) and Rich Young Ruler (third) that day. Isabull came back to run third in the G2 Rebel while Rich Young Ruler hasn’t done anything since. Liberty Bull is an honest race horse, and he has a stakes win over the course, but he’s going to be facing real competition today (competition that the Smarty Jones and WinStar have not prepared him for).
Sire Holy Bull was a freak on the race course, winning $2.4 million winning 13 of 16 career starts (and nine graded stakes). Holy Bull’s daddy Great Above was a very good sprinter but not with the class of Holy Bull. Broodmare sire Dehere won five graded stakes from1993-1994 and four of those were sprints. Dehere was the favorite in the 1993 Breeders Cup Juvenile but faded to eighth, and as a 3-year-old he won the G3 Fountain Of Youth and was injured shortly after and retired to stud. Dehere is a son of Deputy Minister (who is a proven sire for all surfaces).
Are You A Practical "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettor? Or
Maybe You're A Sensible "Lighter" Bettor. You Could Be A Let It All
Hang Out "Deep Pockets" Bettor. Or Possibly You Are A
"Power Ball"
Bettor Swinging For The Fences. Whatever The Case We Have The
Best
Kentucky Derby 2008 Strategy For You.
For
Kentucky Derby 2008 Membership Information
Click Here
For
Discounted Triple Crown 2008 Membership Click Here
[#9] Golden Yank – Golden
Yank has an interesting pedigree, being a member of the first crop by
freshman sire Yankee Gentleman. Yankee Gentleman is a son of Storm Cat
and injects staying speed into Golden Yank's bloodline, and Golden
Yank's broodmare sire Strike The Gold (a son of Alydar) provides a more
classic oriented background. On the race track, Golden Yank enjoyed
immediate success with a couple of two-turn stakes victories (at
Remington Park and Delta Downs) before narrowly missing (to Turf War and
Z Humor, who dead-heated for the win) in the $1 million G3 Delta Jackpot
(also at Delta Downs). While Golden Yank has had relatively impressive
results, he needs a break-out performance to convince us he’s really
Triple Crown caliber. In his most recent start, Golden Yank finished
fourth in the G2 Rebel (here at Oaklawn) but the only lasting impression
I have about the Rebel is Sierra Sunset’s dominating victory. It’s fair
to say Golden Yank has been one of the more accomplished
3-year-olds at Oaklawn this winter, judged on his third-place finish
last year in the G3 Delta Jackpot after winning a pair of two-turn
stakes. But last year is becoming a distant memory and it’s time for
Golden Yank to put up or shut up. Last Saturday Golden Yank worked five
furlongs in 1:00.20 in preparation for the G2 Arkansas Derby, his second
start of the year.
[#10] Z Fortune - Z Fortune ran exceptionally well in the Risen Star Stakes
in January, an important key race in which Z Fortune defeated all comers except one. That would be Pyro, of course, who came from dead last to win the Risen Star going away. Pyro stayed hot and went on to win the Louisiana Derby, also in impressive fashion, on Saturday, March 8. The third place finisher in the Risen Star was the fast improving Visionaire. Visionaire followed up on his Risen Star performance with a win in the Gotham Stakes in the fog at Aqueduct on Saturday, with an impressive and determined last to first move. The Risen Star Stakes looks like a solid key race and that certainly validates the performance of Z Fortune.
It looked as if Z Fortune was peaking nicely for the G2 Rebel here at
Oaklawn, and I thought he was going to be a handful, but we may have caught a glimpse of the ceiling of Z Fortune in the
Rebel. While Sierra Sunset drew away for an uncontested win,
Z Fortune struggled home in fifth. Even back in the Risen Star, Pyro made Z Fortune look bad in the final eighth of a mile, and Steve Asmussen had to know then that Z Fortune was not in the same league as his stable mate Pyro. Pyro
was not in the Rebel, though,
and neither was the talented Denis Of Cork, who was withdrawn to be
pointed to the Illinois
Derby at Hawthorne. With no Pyro or Denis Of Cork to worry about, the main challenger to Z Fortune
was Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune was very disappointing in defeat. The ball is
again in Z Fortune's
court, but he will have to overcome obstacles to take the game.
If you enjoy the race coverage and wager recommendations from
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com, a special treat
awaits you. For only a nominal fee you can have full card
selections and wager recommendations for the entire Kentucky Derby card.
For
Information
Click Here
For
Discounted Triple Crown 2008 Edition
Click Here
[#11] Indian Sun – Indian Sun’s best race to-date
is a second-place finish to El Gato Malo in the G3 San Rafael (over the
Santa Anita Cushion Track). Indian Sun rallied behind a furious pace to
gain second over the 3-to-2 favorite Massive Drama. Indian Sun was
coming off a fifth-place finish in the CashCall Futurity for trainer Dan
Hendricks. The CashCall boasted a stellar field that included Into
Mischief (first), Colonel John (second), Massive Drama (third), Monba
(fourth) and Sierra Sunset (sixth). Indian Sun has the pedigree to run
on conventional dirt, but his best races have been on synthetic tracks. Sire Indian Charlie earned $516,000 in only five
starts in 1988 winning the Santa Anita Derby and finishing third in the
Kentucky Derby the same year. Indian Charlie raced strictly on
conventional dirt, but his sire In Excess was more versatile. A
millionaire earner, In Excess was a brilliant miler who could win on
grass or dirt, although his most important wins (and most of his
opportunities) came on dirt. In Excess won the G1 Metropolitan, the G1
Woodward, the G1 Strub, and the G1 Whitney all in 1991, and all on
conventional dirt. Indian Charlie’s broodmare sire Leo Castelli had a
more modest career (winning only $257,000) but provides a measure of
Polytrack aptitude from his sire Sovereign Dancer (a son of Northern
Dancer). Indian Sun’s broodmare sire Alleged is a premium source of
turf aptitude, having won nine of ten starts (all on grass) including
the 1978 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp.
Note: Shekinah,
Ablaze With
Spirit and Jazz In The Park are all part of the mutuel field and are #12
In your program.
[#12f] Shekinah – Shekinah
impressed by defeating quality 4-year-olds in a first-level allowance at
Oaklawn Park
(March 16). Shekinah dueled in the one-mile affair, going on to win by
a three-length margin under Calvin Borel, and earning a career-best
Beyer of 92. Trainer Dallas Stewart opted for the Arkansas Derby over
the Northern Spur. Before his victory at Oaklawn, Shekinah finished
fourth (to My Pal Charlie) in a first-level allowance at the Fair
Grounds. My Pal Charlie went on to run a surprising second to Pyro in
the G2 Louisiana Derby.
Sire Johannesburg is famous for winning the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile
(on conventional dirt) but he was much more accomplished as a sprinter
on grass. Johannesburg’s sire Hennessy was also prolific as a juvenile.
Shekinah’s broodmare sire Private Account won a pair of grade one
stakes on dirt in 1980. Private Account’s sire Damascus is one of
the more influential sires of the modern age. Damascus won 21 of
32 starts for over $1.1 million (back when a million dollars meant
something).
[#13f]
Ablaze With Spirit – Won a minor stakes (the Jim Orbit) at Sam Houston
on sloppy going over Gold Coyote. Followed that up with an energetic
third-place finish in the Winstar Derby (Sunland Park). From Liberty
Bull’s profile: “Liberty
Bull won the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park last out. The horse he
beat, Screen To Screen, was a maiden making his stakes debut. . .
. The conclusion we have to draw is that the WinStar came up weak, even though Liberty Bull did his job.”
That’s why Ablaze With Spirit has been made part of the Mutuel Field
(along with Shekinah and Jazz In The Park). Ablaze With Spirit is on a
par with Shekinah, and perhaps a head better than Jazz In The Park.
Sire American Spirit won 5 of 25 career starts for earnings of $344,000
and was competitive on both grass and dirt. Broodmare sire Wekiva
Springs won 10 of 21 starts for over $1.5 million and provides speed and
balance to America Spirit’s pedigree.
[#14f] Jazz In The
Park – Jazz In The Park was of ten late nominees to the Triple Crown.
The late nomination stage ended March 29 and included My Pal Charlie
(second to Pyro in Louisiana Derby) and Big Glen (defeated Miner’s Claim
in Rushaway). That makes Jazz In The Park eligible for the Triple
Crown. but he has yet to make his mark in a stakes race. He defeated
first-level allowance competition at the Fair Grounds in March (and he has
also lost three races).
Jazz In The Park is a half-brother (by a common sire Ecton Park) to Tres
Borrachos. For notes on Ecton Park, we turn to the pedigree of Tres
Borrachos: “Sire
Ecton Park earned $1.5 million and finished third in the 1999 Arkansas
Derby. Ecton Park’s sire Forty Niner won over $2.7 million in an
outstanding career that featured seven graded stakes wins from
1987-1988.”
Jazz In The Park’s broodmare sire Kentucky Jazz won only 3 races in 11
starts (for earnings of $124,700) but his sire Dixieland Band had more
success. Dixieland Band earned over $400,000 and won a pair of grade 3
stakes (on conventional dirt).
Wager Recommendation
Grade 2 Arkansas Derby [Oaklawn Park Race 11]
For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 7 ($100)
$25 Exacta 7 with 1/3/4/8/9/10 ($150)
$20 Exacta 9/10 with 7 ($40)
10¢
Superfecta 7 with ALL with 1/3/4/8/9/10 with ALL ($54)
Total Wagers $344
For "Lighter" Bettors
$5 Win-Place 7 ($10)
$3 Exacta 7 with 1/3/4/8/9/10 ($18)
$2 Exacta 9/10 with 7 ($4)
Total Wagers $32
For "Sharpshooter" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 7 with ALL with 1/10 with ALL ($18)
Total Wagers $18
For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 7 ($100)
$20 Win 9 ($20)
Total Wagers $120
For "Power Ball" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 1/3/7 with ALL with 9 with ALL ($27)
Total Wagers $27
Reminder: To check the results for the weekly
selection you can
always go to the home page for
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com and click on the date in the upper right
corner.
Last Week's Results
In the G2 Illinois Derby, Horse-Race-Handicapping.com narrowly missed
the huge SUPERFECTA payoff of $3,245.60 for $2. The winning
combination of 1-6-3-4 featured a 15-to-1 longshot in front, and Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
had 1/2/5/6 with ALL with ALL with 1/2/5/6.
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
1 |
Recapturetheglory |
Baird E T |
33.80 |
15.60 |
10.00 |
|
6 |
Golden Spikes |
Thornton T |
|
6.80 |
5.40 |
|
3 |
Z Humor |
Douglas R R |
|
|
4.80 |
$2 Exacta (1-6) Paid
$180.80
$2 Trifecta (1-6-3) Paid $789.60
$2 Superfecta (1-6-3-4) Paid $3,245.60
In the G1 Santa Anita Derby, Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
value play Coast Guard [#3] finished third
while our other value
plays failed to hit the board. It was a painful
result, and we'll be making amends next week as the
Kentucky Derby draws near.
| Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
5 |
Colonel John |
Nakatani C S |
7.20 |
4.00 |
3.20 |
|
4 |
Bob Black Jack |
Migliore R |
|
7.20 |
5.40 |
|
3 |
Coast Guard |
Talamo J |
|
|
7.80 |
$2 Exacta (5-4) Paid
$49.20
$2 Trifecta (5-4-3) Paid $613.00
$2 Superfecta (5-4-3-1) Paid $2,369.20
Reserve
All 3 Triple Crown Full Cards Now Click Here
Copyright 2008
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
|
|
|
|
|