Saturday April 19, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 9th at Keeneland: Keeneland 9th (5:40 EDT)
Grade 2 Lexington Stakes 
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $325,000
 

Prg. #	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Atoned	Prado E S	Pletcher Todd A	3-1
2	Salute the Sarge	Baze M C	Guillot Eric	4-1
3	Samba Rooster	Gomez G K	Baffert Bob	8-1
4	St. Joe	Mena M	Miller Darrin	8-1
5	Racecar Rhapsody	Albarado R J	McPeek Kenneth G	9-2
6	Felon	Leparoux J R	Maker Michael J	20-1
7	Behindatthebar	Flores D R	Pletcher Todd A	12-1
8	Tomcito	Chavez J F	Zanelli Dante	6-1
9	Big Glen	Douglas R R	Brothers Frank L	12-1
10	Riley Tucker	Velazquez J R	Mott William I	12-1
11	Red Sandy	Theriot H J II	Lukas D Wayne	30-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 9th at Keeneland

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates that #7 (Behindatthebar), #2 (Salute The Sarge), #8 (Tomcito), #9 (Big Glen), #5 (Racecar Rhapsody) and #10 (Riley Tucker) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our top four value plays:  #7 (Behindatthebar), #2 (Salute The Sarge), #8 (Tomcito) and #9 (Big Glen).

 A Preview Of The Grade 2 Lexington Stakes  [Keeneland Race 9]

[#1] Atoned - Atoned was the bad luck loser to Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby, best remembered as the race in which War Pass finished last at odds of 1-to-20.  Three weeks later in the Illinois Derby, Atoned finished a well-beaten fourth and appeared listless.  I believe Atoned was tired from his efforts three weeks earlier, and I also believe Atoned was a victim of a "golden rail."  The pacesetter Recapturetheglory took advantage of a lightning rail to sail unmolested around the Hawthorne oval.  As a juvenile, Atoned was very competitive in stake races at Delaware Park and Monmouth Park.  This year Atoned continued to improve under the care of Todd Pletcher.  In the Tampa Bay Derby, despite not winning, Atoned displayed patience and a determined stretch kick to finish a shade behind one proven Kentucky Derby contender (Big Truck) while defeating another one (War Pass).  I expected another solid effort from Atoned in the Illinois Derby and it simply didn't happen.  Will Atoned rebound in the Lexington?  Owner Colt Campbell (Dogwood Stable President) was reported (by the Daily Racing Form) as saying  Atoned has been training with energy as of late.  Working on Keeneland's Polytrack, Atoned breezed a half in 47.1 and galloped out five-eighths in 59.2.  Should he run well in the Lexington, the G1 Preakness appears to be the next target for Atoned .

Atoned is a son of the millionaire Repent (second-place finisher to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby).  Icecapade, the broodmare sire of Atoned, is a son of Shenanigans, sire of the brilliant and ill-fated filly Ruffian.  Outside of Atone's third-generation sire Sovereign Dancer, there are not a lot of turf (or synthetic track) influences, and that could be a problem.  That said, Pletcher is Pletcher, and Atoned will be well prepared.  

[#2] Salute The Sarge - Last year Salute The Sarge banged heads with Georgie Boy on two occasions.  The first time they met was in the G2 Best Pal over 6 1/2 furlongs on the Del Mar Polytrack.  Two important scratches (Leonides and Slam Slew) set the stage for a duel between favored Georgie Boy and Salute The Sarge.  Salute The Sarge was not impressed and wore down Georgie Boy in deep stretch for the win.  The two juvenile stars would meet again five weeks later in the G1 Del Mar Futurity.  It was Georgie Boy who would electrify the crowd this time, rallying from eleventh place to win by a half-length in a six-horse blanket finish.  And it was Salute The Sarge who finished a heart-breaking second.  At the half Georgie Boy was eleventh (but only six lengths back of the leader) and after rallying three-wide in the stretch and then knifing between horses late, Georgie Boy reached the front in time (a half-length to the better of rival Salute The Sarge).  In many respects the Futurity was a typical Polytrack race (the pacesetters were nowhere to be seen at the finish) and the winning time (1:25.34) for the seven furlongs was nothing spectacular.  Salute The Sarge went on to finish second (to Dixie Chatter) in the G2 Norfolk on Cushion Track, and then finished ninth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the mud. 

This year Georgie Boy picked up right where he left off with a win in the San Felipe and was under consideration for the Kentucky Derby until a minor injury derailed him.   Salute The Sarge also made a successful 3-year-old debut, winning the San Miguel Stakes (at Santa Anita) at six furlongs, a race that trainer Eric Guillot indicated was a prep for the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.  True to his word, Guillot has entered Salute The Sarge in the Lexington.   A rested and well-conditioned Salute The Sarge should be a handful on the Keeneland Polytrack, a surface he will relish.

Sire Forest Wildcat is a son of Storm Cat and it's universally known Storm Cat is a premier source of Polytrack aptitude.  Salute The Sarge's broodmare sire Silver Ghost is a son of Mr. Prospector and a grandson of Halo, further solidifying his pedigree for Polytrack.  The only negative I see in the pedigree is Dixieland Band (a sire in the third-generation of the female line).  Dixieland Band accounts for 12.5 % of the pedigree of Salute The Sarge, which is one part in eight.   

[#3] Samba Rooster – Samba Rooster was runner-up (to Harlem Rocker) in a first-level allowance late March at Gulfstream Park.  He has been in-the-money in all of his five starts to-date and has a single win (a maiden allowance).  Samba Rooster is Bob Baffert’s last chance to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby.  Baffert trained Sinister Minister to a runaway victory in last year’s Blue Grass at Keeneland.  Samba Rooster has the same no-holds-barred running style as Sinister Minister but he's never been in a stakes before.  Baffert recently joked that Sinister Minister’s win was the last straw that led Keeneland to replace its dirt racing surface with Polytrack.

Sire Songandaprayer won the G1 Fountain of Youth in 2001 and placed in the G1 Blue Grass the same year (back when it was run on dirt).  Songandaprayer is influenced by Caro, Fappiano, and Exclusive Native (excellent sources of turf and Polytrack aptitude).  Samba Rooster is very closely related to Preachin Man (a stakes level sprinter who finished last in the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile).  They share a common sire (Songandaprayer) and broodmare sire (Devil’s Bag) but have different dams (Samba Rooster  is out of Illumination and Preachin Man is out of Sweet Cameron).  Devil’s Bag is a full-brother to Saint Ballado, winner of the (1992) Arlington Classic on grass.

[#4] St. Joe - The owner-trainer team of Silverton Hill Farms and Darrin Miller was responsible for sending Dominican to last year’s the Blue Grass Stakes where he won a four-horse photo.  One year and three races later, Dominican hasn't won again, compromised by "a respiratory, allergy" ailment, but is scheduled to run Friday in an optional claimer at Keeneland.  Meanwhile Silverton Hill and Miller will rely on St. Joe to carry the stable's hopes in the Lexington.  The odds for St. Joe will be long, but the colt has run well in both of his races over the Keeneland Polytrack, winning a maiden race last fall and a first-level allowance here opening day (April 4).  Between those bookend wins St. Joe had four losses including two horrible races at Gulfstream on conventional dirt.  The Gulfstream Park races can be ignored, and that makes St. Joe an interesting dark horse in the Lexington.  The only problem is rating the eager colt, who prefers to go the lead, and that puts him in direct conflict with Samba Rooster (and potentially Riley Tucker).

St. Joe’s sire Trippi was a dominant force in graded stakes from 2000-2001 and defeated More Than Ready in the G1 Vosburgh over seven furlongs at Belmont Park.  Trippi was known as a long sprinter but he is proving to be an excellent grass sire.  His son Trippi’s Storm defeated After Market (one of America’s top turf milers) last year in the G2 Kelso on the Belmont lawn.  St. Joe is also influenced by Valid Appeal, Danzig, and Lord Gaylord, each a versatile sire in his own right.

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[#5] Racecar Rhapsody – Although his only win so far is a maiden score over the Keeneland Polytrack, Racecar Rhapsody has been competitive in stakes.  He finished third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes November 24, 2007 at Churchill Downs, and registered a fourth-place finish in the Delta Jackpot early in December.  Those two races were on conventional dirt.  The G2 Lane's End at Turfway was the first start of the new year for Racecar Rhapsody.  I thought If he was really primed, he might be able to circle the field late.  As it turned out, Racecar Rhapsody made an imposing move along the rail on the second turn, but flattened out and eventually finished fourth.  The screws should be tightened on Racecar Rhapsody and he will enjoy a heated pace (and he'll probably get it).
 
Sire is Tale Of The Cat, who is in turn a son of the highly successful Polytrack sire Storm Cat.  Racecar Rhapsody's dam Reflect The Music introduces A. P. Indy and Nijinsky into the bloodline, nicely complementing the influence of Storm Cat.  The result is an excellent Polytrack pedigree.

[#6] Felon – With one win in three starts and limited winnings Felon is probably in over his head in the Lexington.  Granted he won over the Turfway Polytrack, but he didn't beat anybody of note and the Lexington will be his stakes debut.  Mike Maker trains and the patient Julien Leparoux is in the irons.

Sire Stephen Got Even won over $1 million in just 11 career starts.  Wins in the G1 Donn (2000) and G2 Lane’s End (1999) went a long way towards that million.  The Lane’s End was run on conventional dirt back then.  Stephen Got Even inherited an aptitude for dirt (and endurance) from his father A. P. Indy.  Felon’s broodmare sire Sefapiano won only $37,000 in a forgettable career but passes along turf (and probably Polytrack) aptitude from his sire Fappiano.

[#7] Behindatthebar - Todd Pletcher has been on the fence about starting Behindatthebar in the G2 Lexington, and in the end he decided to run him.  Behindatthebar finished fifth in the G3 El Camino Real Derby (March 8) at Bay Meadows.  Tres Borrachos, surprise third-place finisher in the G2 Arkansas Derby last weekend, finished third in the El Camino Real with an 82 Beyer.  Behindatthebar earned an even lower Beyer in the El Camino Real, not exactly Kentucky Derby inspired, but I believe Pletcher was buoyed by the performance of Tres Borrachos in the Arkansas Derby (and he hopes Behindatthebar will respond in like kind).  Behindatthebar doesn’t have the seasoning Tres Borrachos enjoyed prior to his Arkansas Derby start, though.  Tres Borrachos started the year with a fourth-place finish in the California Derby at Golden Gate (on Tapeta Track).  The winner of the California Derby was West Coast synthetic track specialist Yankee Bravo, while Lane’s End third-place finisher Medjool finished sixth.  The good news is Behindatthebar has two wins on Santa Anita's synthetic Cushion Track, including a four-length allowance win April 3.  The bad news is Behindatthebar has yet to hit the board in a stakes race.  That may not stop Behindatthebar and Todd Pletcher.

Behindatthebar‘s Sire Forest Wildcat was a moderately successful, occasionally brilliant graded stakes sprinter back in 1996.  This year’s stud fee for Forest Wildcat’s sire Storm Cat dropped from $500,000 to $300,000 in a concession to age and demand (A. P. Indy also commands a $300,000 fee).  Storm Cat is a wonderful Polytrack sire.  Behindatthebar‘s broodmare sire Runaway Groom is a son of Blushing Groom (five-time G1 winner from 1976-1977).  Blushing Groom was a brilliant turf miler based in Europe and has become an important source of turf aptitude.  The pedigree of Behindatthebar should be kind for synthetic surfaces.  And Behindatthebar is a half-brother to synthetic track standout Salute The Sarge.  The two square off today in the Lexington.

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[#8] Tomcito - This Peruvian import surprised a lot of pundits with a late running third-place finish in the G1 Florida Derby in late March (although he at no time threatened Big Brown).  Tomcito won a pair of G1 stakes in South America before making the journey to the U. S.  In his last race in South America, Tomcito won Peru’s G1 Derby Nacional at 1 1/2 miles on November 17.  His very first start in the U. S. was the G1 Florida Derby. Tomcito has won 4 of 6 overall starts, his only defeats the third in the Florida Derby and a second in the Peruvian 2,000 Guineas.  Tomcito, bred in Kentucky, raced in Peru against horses bred in the Southern Hemisphere with several months more development under their belt. 

Comparisons have inevitably been made between Tomcito and another South American racehorse named Canonero II.  Canonero II won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 1971.  Canonero II sold for a modest $1,200 as a yearling at the 1969 Keeneland Fall sales, shipped to Venezuela under the care of Juan Arias, and won the Kentucky Derby 18 months later.  Tomcito was an equally modest $7,500 purchase at the 2006 Keeneland September yearling sales, and he is trying to follow in the footsteps of Canonero II.

Sire is 2002 Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry, who also sired 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.  The Street Cry line is suited well for grass as well as conventional dirt, and should be right at home on synthetic surfaces.  Tomcito's broodmare sire Eastern Echo raced only three times in a shortened career, but made the most of it winning the 1990 G1 Futurity at Belmont.  The pedigrees of Tomcito and Canonero II are not related.  Polytrack aptitude is readily found in Tomcito's pedigree. 

[#9] Big Glen - Finished well to defeat odds-on favorite Miner's Claim in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park (on Polytrack) after getting a dream trip tracking the leader.  The Rushaway marked the 2008 debut for Big Glen's new rival Miner's Claim, and Miner's Claim would finish sixth (three weeks later) in the G1 Blue Grass.  A story recently came out that Miner Claim had problems with a partially detached shoe in the Blue Grass.  Big Glen, prior to defeating Miner's Claim in the Rushaway, won the WEBN Stakes at one mile over the Turfway Polytrack.   

Sire Cactus Ridge won all four of his starts in a brief career (with a single graded stakes win).  Cactus Ridge's sire Hennessy was prolific as a juvenile.  Hennessy made the most of nine career starts with four wins and three seconds for earnings of $580,000.  A son of Storm Cat, Hennessy won three graded stakes sprints (1995) as a juvenile and finished second to Unbridled’s Song in the prestigious Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Hennessy was brilliant at a mile, but he did not excel at the classic distances.  Cactus Ridge's broodmare sire Lycius introduces badly needed turf (and probably Polytrack) aptitude.  Lycius performed as a very successful group one miler in Europe (1990-1991).

[#10] Riley Tucker – I loved this horse last year but he was injured before Breeders Cup so we didn’t get to see how he measured up against the likes of War Pass and Pyro (in the Juvenile).  Riley Tucker was a four-length winner in his maiden debut last year at Belmont and immediately stepped up to graded stakes company in the G2 Saratoga Special.  Riley Tucker faced a first rate field in the Saratoga Special including Breeders Cup hopefuls Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse.  Riley Tucker held a good account of himself although he did not win.  He pressed the pace early and dug in late, holding on for third place behind Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse.  Trainer Bill Mott was encouraged by Riley Tucker’s performance so he entered him in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity (on the Arlington Polytrack).  Riley Tucker was outstanding in the Arlington-Washington Futurity and almost certainly would have won but for a mishap at the start.  Riley Tucker hit the gate at the start and spotted the field a couple lengths, then worked his way forward from the second flight and took a brief lead in mid-stretch, fought to the wire only to lose a head-nod to Wicked Style. 

Riley Tucker did not race again until February 2008 in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.  He split the field (finishing fifth) while Denis Of Cork and Sierra Sunset finished first and second, respectively.  Owned by Zayat Stables, Riley Tucker enters the Lexington off a second-place finish in the G3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland (April 4).  The Transylvania was originally scheduled for the turf and transferred to Polytrack due to inclement weather.  The Tom Amoss trained Boss Lafitte won the Transylvania (his first graded stakes win) and the highly respected Prussian ran fourth.

Riley Tucker is a son of $3.6 million winner Harlan's Holiday.  Harlan's Holiday won six graded stakes from 2001-2003 on conventional dirt including the G1 Florida Derby.  Harlan's Holiday is also the sire of Denis Of Cork and Tasha's Miracle.  Riley Tucker's broodmare sire Bold Ruckus exhibited excellent speed and occasionally carried it to over a mile (second in 1979 G2 Ohio Derby at 1 1/8 miles).  Riley Tucker’s dam My Sweet Country is heavily influenced by Bold Ruler (grandfather of Bold Ruckus) and that is a concern.  Bold Ruler is a premier stallion for conventional dirt but not for Polytrack.  Fortunately, Harlan’s Holiday is a grandson of Storm Cat, or Riley Tucker would have nothing in his pedigree that would indicate Polytrack.

[#11] Red Sandy – The D Wayne Lukas trained Red Sandy broke his maiden March 16 at Oaklawn Park in a 1 1/16 mile route (in 1:46.19) and that is his only win to-date.  With Stone Bird’s last-place finish in the Blue Grass last Saturday, Red Sandy represents a Hail-Mary pass by Lukas to have a horse qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Red Sandy’s sire Yes It’s True was a millionaire sprinter with nine graded stakes victories from 1998-1999 (from 5 1/2 to 7 furlongs on conventional dirt).  Yes It’s True has proven to be an excellent off-track sire although Polytrack aptitude is altogether another issue.  Red Sandy’s broodmare sire Major Moran won less than $50,000 in 13 career starts and is a grandson of the unluckiest racehorse in history (Sham).  Sham finished second to the great Secretariat in all three legs of the 1973 Triple Crown.  Sham’s bad luck was being foaled in the same crop as “Big Red.”

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 Last Week's Results  

It all came together in the G1 Blue Grass for Horse-Race-Handicapping.com with a top of the line EXACTA play.  Of course we're talking about our top two value plays, Monba (#5) and Cowboy Cal (#3).  The scrumptious 5-3 EXACTA returned $1,390 for a sawbuck ($20 for you youngsters).  The SUPERFECTA combination of 5-3-2-4 paid an astounding $44,821.60 for $2.  Did we have it?  Close doesn't count, but Horse-Race-Handicapping.com was dangerously close with a 3/5/6 with ALL with 3/5/6/9/11 with ALL ticket.  And our $50 WIN-PLACE wager on Cowboy Cal (#3) returned $215.  Oh, and did I mention, we nailed a $25 WIN play on Monba (#5) for a $245 payoff.  Bring on the Kentucky Derby!

$2   Exacta  (5-3)  Paid $139.00
$2   Trifecta  (5-3-2)  Paid $3,313.80
$2   Superfecta  (5-3-2-4)  Paid $44,821.60