Saturday May 10, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest
A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
 
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Here is the field for the 10th at Lone Star Park: Lone Star Park 10th (5:47 CDT)
Grade 3 Lone Star Derby 
1 1/16 Miles (Main Track) | 3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $400,000
 

Prg. #	PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	1	Limestone Edge	Lanerie C J	Hess R B Jr	9-5
1A	9	Samba Rooster	Gomez G K	Baffert Bob	9-5
2	2	El Gato Malo	Bejarano R	Dollase Craig	2-1
3	3	Golden Yank	Berry M C	Thomas Gary A	20-1
4	4	Poni Colada	Hamilton Q	Asmussen Steven M	15-1
5	5	King's Silver Son	Quinonez L S	Asmussen Steven M	15-1
6	6	Texas Wildcatter	Albarado R J	Pletcher Todd A	8-1
7	7	Ide Like a Double	Clark K D	Gilbert Bryon J	15-1
8	8	Isabull	Doocy T T	Hobby Steve	30-1
9	10	Leonides	Migliore R	Cerin Vladimir	10-1
10	11	My Pal Charlie	Theriot H J II	Stall Albert M Jr	12-1
11	12	Fort Apache	Martin E M Jr	Calhoun W. B	30-1
12	13	Real Appeal	Graham J	Amoss Thomas	30-1

Copyright 2008 Daily Racing Form

Step 1.
Compare the odds on the System Toteboard to the Morning Line odds for the race.

Here are the two toteboards:

 Morning Line Odds for the 10th at Lone Star Park

Step 5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates that #3 (Golden Yank), #9 (Leonides), #6 (Texas Wildcatter), #2 (El Gato Malo) and #11 (Fort Apache) are the Key value horses for our wagers.  We incorporate these horses into our betting strategy.  Here is the low down on the race and our final strategy to win!

You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the board on our top three value plays:  #3 (Golden Yank), #9 (Leonides), #6 (Texas Wildcatter).

 A Preview Of The Grade 3 Lone Star Derby  [Lone Star Park Race 10]

[#1] Limestone Edge - Limestone Edge has raced and raced well against the likes of Medjool and Ready's Echo, even defeating Medjool in a maiden allowance last November.  There is a caveat, all four of Limestone Edge's races were on the Santa Anita Cushion Track.  His two wins are a maiden allowance and a first-level allowance and his high Beyer is 86.  Limestone Edge is half of a Robert Hess trained entry with Samba Rooster.    

Sire Cat Thief is a son of Storm Cat.  Cat Thief was a serviceable handicap horse (1998-2000) who won the 1999 Breeders Cup Classic.  Limestone Edge's broodmare sire is Unbridled.  The pedigree for Limestone Edge is balanced and strong.  

[#1A] Samba Rooster - Samba Rooster is best known for his gutsy second (to Behindatthebar) in the Lexington at odds of 17-to-1.  But Samba Rooster has been flying on the racetrack well before the Lexington.  Samba Rooster was runner-up to the highly regarded Harlem Rocker in a first-level allowance late March at Gulfstream Park.  He has been in-the-money in all of his six starts to-date, however has only a single win (a maiden allowance).  Samba Rooster is trained by Bob Baffert who is an old hand at sending his lesser stakes horses to Lone Star Park for easy pickings (but the Lone Star Derby is no easy pickings).  Samba Rooster has a no-holds-barred running style that served him well in the Lexington (his first stakes).  Samba Rooster's highest Beyer on conventional dirt is a 96 at one mile at Gulfstream Park.. 

Sire Songandaprayer won the G1 Fountain of Youth in 2001 and placed in the G1 Blue Grass the same year (back when it was run on dirt).  Songandaprayer is influenced by Caro, Fappiano, and Exclusive Native (excellent sources of turf and Polytrack aptitude).  Samba Rooster is very closely related to Preachin Man (a stakes level sprinter who finished last in the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile).  They share a common sire (Songandaprayer) and broodmare sire (Devil’s Bag) but have different dams (Samba Rooster  is out of Illumination and Preachin Man is out of Sweet Cameron).  Devil’s Bag is a full-brother to Saint Ballado, winner of the (1992) Arlington Classic on grass.

[#2] El Gato Malo - Heading into the Santa Anita Derby, El Gato Malo had won 3 of 4 starts and earned over $200,000, his only defeat at the hands of Colonel John in the G3 Sham on March 1.  El Gato Malo looked to be one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby candidates to emerge from the West Coast labyrinth of synthetic race tracks.  Everyone was disappointed in El Gato Malo's lackluster fifth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (won by Colonel John).  He simply should have run better, and the upside is he may bounce right back in the Lone Star Derby.  The downside is he has no experience on conventional dirt.  El Gato Malo's last three Beyers (starting with the most recent) are 86 (Santa Anita Derby), 85 (Sham) and 99 (San Rafael).   

In the G3 Sham at Santa Anita, Colonel John got the jump on El Gato Malo and held him safe in the final yards, but El Gato Malo looked visually to be the better horse.  Back in January, El Gato Malo won the G3 San Rafael with daylight to spare after stalking a fast pace.  His victims in the San Rafael include Indian Sun, Massive Drama, and Sierra Sunset.  Sierra Sunset went on to win the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, and has since been sidelined due to injury.  With all of his five starts on synthetic tracks, El Gato Malo is a mystery on conventional dirt tracks (such as the Lone Star Derby host track Lone Star Park) but he is certainly one of the best 3-year-olds on synthetic surfaces.  Hazard a guess which track hosts the Breeders Cup Classic the next two years?  Santa Anita Park.  Advantage El Gato Malo.  

Sire El Corredor won seven of ten lifetime starts for earnings of over $727,000.  El Corredor was a one mile specialist on conventional dirt winning graded stakes on both the East and West Coasts, including the G1 Cigar Mile (2000).  Broodmare sire Mountain Cat was a four-time graded stakes winner (1992-1993) on conventional dirt from 6 furlongs up to a 1 1/16 miles.  Mountain Cat is a son of Storm Cat, and Storm Cat is proving to be one of the most successful Polytrack sires.  El Gato Malo's pedigree looks reasonable for conventional dirt and I suspect he has a good Lone Star Derby in him.

[#3] Golden Yank – Golden Yank is coming into the Lone Star Derby off a well beaten seventh in the Arkansas Derby.  Down by 14 lengths at the top of the lane and about 12 at the finish, Golden Yank had no excuses in the Arkansas Derby.

Golden Yank has an interesting pedigree, being a member of the first crop by freshman sire Yankee Gentleman.  Yankee Gentleman is a son of Storm Cat and injects staying speed into Golden Yank's bloodline, and Golden Yank's broodmare sire Strike The Gold (a son of Alydar) provides a more classic oriented background.   On the race track, Golden Yank enjoyed immediate success with a couple of two-turn stakes victories (at Remington Park and Delta Downs) before narrowly missing (to Turf War and Z Humor, who dead-heated for the win) in the $1 million G3 Delta Jackpot (also at Delta Downs).  While Golden Yank has had relatively impressive results, he never got that break-out performance to convince us he’s really Triple Crown caliber.  Two starts back, Golden Yank finished fourth in the G2 Rebel (Oaklawn Park) but the only lasting impression I have about the Rebel is Sierra Sunset’s dominating victory.  It’s fair to say Golden Yank has been one of the more accomplished 3-year-olds at Oaklawn this winter, judged on his third-place finish last year in the G3 Delta Jackpot after winning a pair of two-turn stakes.  But last year is becoming a distant memory and it’s past time for Golden Yank to put up or shut up.  Outside of a 96 Beyer in the Delta Jackpot, Golden Yank has been limited to a 86 Beyer.  The Lone Star Derby will be his third start of the year.

[#4] Poni Colada - Like Golden Yank, Poni Colada was based at Oaklawn Park earlier in the year.  Poni Colada finished a tiring sixth in the Smarty Jones (won by Liberty Bull) in January.  Later on in April, Poni Colada turned in his best race to-date with a fast closing second (to Sebastian County) in the Northern Spur at Oaklawn Park.  Poni Colada earned a 90 Beyer (easily his best figure) in the Northern Spur.  Poni Colada has one win in five starts on dirt and he is going to need to step up his game to compete in graded stakes company.  He lost his only graded stakes by 15 lengths.    

Sire Volponi won 7 of 30 starts including an upset at very long odds in the 2002 Breeders Cup Classic.  Poni Colada stood to inherit stamina from Volponi and from Volponi's sire Cryptoclearance but it has not materialized on the racetrack yet. 
 

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[#5] King's Silver Son – King's Silver Son enters the Lone Star Derby off a seemingly uninterested ninth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.  Not unlike Golden Yank, he seemed to hit a wall in the Arkansas Derby and threw in a real clunker. 

It was a big surprise to me when King's Silver Son finished second (behind Sierra Sunset) in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn.  In fact, I wrote this before the race:  “With a pedigree that includes names like Mizzen Mast, Cozzene, Caro, Graustark, Ribot, Dynaformer, and Roberto, one pervading thought comes to mind.  Why isn't King's Silver Son racing on turf or synthetic surfaces instead of dirt?”   My reasoning was sound, so I thought.  King's Silver Son already had three second-pace finishes on Polytrack.  And I thought Steve Asmussen was giving King's Silver Son a race before he lost form, not having raced since he broke his maiden January 21 at the Fair Grounds.  King's Silver Son surprised us all and closed late to get up for second.  I wasn’t totally off the mark.  I also wrote this before the race:   “There is a chance King's Silver Son may close late to get a piece in the Rebel, but only if the pace collapses.”  Well the pace did collapse, in a sense.  Sacred Journey set torrid fractions (just as he did in the Southwest) and set the stage for the stalker Sierra Sunset to win.  And it also allowed  King’s Silver Son to pass a multitude of tired horses.  That’s not to take anything away from King's Silver Son’s second-place finish, but let’s not get overly excited.  After all, he didn’t come close to winning the race, and before the Rebel it took King's Silver Son six attempts to break his maiden. 

[#6] Texas Wildcatter – Texas Wildcatter is best remembered as the colt Visionaire collared in the final yards of the Gotham (a race ran almost completely under the cover of fog).  The Gotham marked the high point for Texas Wildcatter with a 98 Beyer.  Next out in the Wood, though, Texas Wildcatter came tumbling back to Earth with a 33 length loss (finishing eighth) to Tale Of Ekati.  Todd Pletcher will not let Texas Wildcatter run anywhere near as poor a race in the Lone Star Derby.

With sire Monarchos and broodmare sire Forest Wildcat, Texas Wildcatter looks to have a nice pedigree for synthetic surfaces (and in fact won his lone attempt on Polytrack).

[#7] Ide Like A Double - A son of Ide (by Forty Niner) Ide Like A Double finished 3 3/4 lengths behind Poni Colada in the Northern Spur (earning a 83 Beyer).  Prior to the Northern Spur, Ide Like A Double dominated the Crescent City Derby (a $75,000 stakes for Louisiana State breds) at the Fair Grounds.  Ide Like A Double achieved his personal high Beyer of 93 in the Crescent City (but his high Beyer in the five races leading up to the Crescent City was an uninspiring 72).  The Lone Star Derby is the first graded stakes for Ide Like A Double as he tries to overcome his humble beginnings on the Evangeline Downs and Delta Downs circuit in Louisiana. 

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[#8] Isabull - Isabull went off at odds of 31-to-1 in the Arkansas Derby and finished sixth (10 lengths behind the winner Gayego).  His high Beyer in eight overall races is 89 so we have a pretty good idea of what Isabull can and cannot do.

A son of Holy Bull, Isabull returned from two months off to finish a strong second (to Liberty Bull) in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January.  This came after failing to break through first allowance conditions at Churchill Downs, although one of those losses was to Monba.  The problem with Isabull is his inconsistency, for example he threw in a clunker in the Southwest, just four weeks after his good Smarty Jones effort.  Trainer Steve Hobby doesn't win too many big stakes, and the G2 Arkansas Derby was about as big as it gets (in April) for a 3-year-old.  Isabull tuned up for the Arkansas Derby in the G2 Rebel, and he held a good account of himself, rallying for third place (although not threatening the top two).  On again, off again, that's  Isabull for you.

Isabull, a son of Holy Bull and grandson of Miswaki, is certainly bred to run well, and  Isabull does have experience over conventional dirt tracks.

[#9] Leonides - Leonides is a 3-year-old son of Richter Scale out of the Beau Genius mare North East Belle.  Richter Scale was a superior handicap horse (ten-time graded stakes winner) specializing in 6 to 7 furlong sprints (1997-2000).  Beau Genius won the 1990 G1 Philip Iselin at Monmouth Park.  The influence of Canadian-bred Beau Genius in the pedigree of Leonides is promising. 

To open his career Leonides posted a win and a second in his first two starts.  After winning his maiden debut Leonides tried winners in the G3 Hollywood Juvenile on Cushion Track at Hollywood Park.  Leonides rallied strongly and narrowly missed falling short to Salute The Sarge.  Salute The Sarge was a winner again in the G2 Best Pal (Leonides was scratched from the Best Pal).  Leonides is trained by Vladimir Cerin.  In his second graded stakes (G1 Del Mar Futurity) Leonides was prominent throughout but was no match for the winner Georgie Boy.  The winning time (1:25.34) for the seven furlongs was slow.

After a 5 1/2 month freshening Leonides resurfaced in the Palo Verde at Turf Paradise and won handily (with a 91 Beyer).  Five weeks later in the San Miguel, Leonides ran a spirited second to Salute The Sarge but earned only a 84 Beyer (on the Santa Anita Cushion Track).  Leonides has just the lone race on conventional dirt but he possesses an aggressive style and he should be ready to fire in his third race back from a layoff.

[#10] My Pal Charlie – My Pal Charlie was forwardly placed in the Arkansas Derby but never really got going (finishing fifth beaten about 8 lengths).  He earned a 90 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby which matches his high from the Louisiana Derby one month earlier.

I underestimated this fellow in the Louisiana Derby, where he shocked everybody (at 60-to-1 odds) and finished second behind Pyro and ahead of Yankee Bravo, Blackberry Road, Tale Of Ekati and Majestic Warrior.  He did it with speed over a speed-favoring strip (Fair Grounds).  But the Arkansas Derby is run at Oaklawn Park, and Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds are like apples and oranges (despite both being conventional dirt).  Oaklawn is a thoroughly fair dirt surface and I consider the Fair Grounds to be a speed-favoring dirt surface.  That was not good news for fans of My Pal Charlie, who has to be considered a speed horse despite his showing in the Louisiana Derby.  This is what I said about May Pal Charlie prior to the Louisiana Derby:  “My Pal Charlie has just a single victory and he should be no match for the greater talents of Pyro, Tale Of Ekati, and Blackberry Road.  He may, however, contribute to the pace, and in doing so, he would help the same horses he is trying to beat.”  O.K., I was way off, I admit it, but my words had more relevance in the Arkansas Derby.

My Pal Charlie is a son of Indian Charlie, winner of the 1998 Santa Anita Derby and third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby the same year.  My Pal Charlie is a half-brother to Kohana (by virtue of their common sire Indian Charlie).  My Pal Charlie’s broodmare sire Halo is one of the more versatile stallions in racing.  Halo’s celebrated son Sunday Silence has rejuvenated the entire Japanese breeding industry.  Sunday Silence had a dream year in 1989, winning the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders Cup Classic, all on conventional dirt.  But with the influence of Halo’s second sire Turn-To, Sunday Silence has passed on a tremendous turf aptitude to his progeny (and that is what is fueling the turn-around in the Japanese breeding industry).

[#11] Fort Apache – In four career races, Fort Apache lost three maiden special weights at the Fair Grounds and then won a first-level allowance here at Lone Star Park.  Trained by one of the perennial leading locals (Bret Calhoun) Fort Apache has home field advantage but the Lone Star Derby will be his first stakes (much less graded stakes).

With sire Mineshaft and broodmare sire Deputy Minister, Fort Apache has a fine pedigree.  And his trainer is winning at a ridiculous 38% clip here at Lone Star.   

[#12] Real Appeal – Real Appeal, a closer, was beaten 27 lengths in the Illinois Derby (on a day speed was king).  Prior to the Illinois Derby, Real Appeal won the Texas Heritage Stakes (not a graded stakes) at Sam Houston Park.  His winning time of 1:38.71 for the mile does not suggest the resources of a Triple Crown type candidate, but that's not to say he couldn't close late to get a piece in the Lone Star Derby.

Sire Successful Appeal was a multiple graded stakes sprinter effective at distances up to a mile, racing primarily on conventional dirt.  Successful Appeal is a son of Valid Appeal, whose pedigree hints strongly at grass and Polytrack aptitude.

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