Saturday May 31, 2008


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Churchill Downs - Race 8  [Post 4:49 EDT]
GRADE 3 DOGWOOD STAKES
1 Mile (Main Track) Fillies 3-Years-Old Stakes Purse $100,000

Prg # Horse Jockey Trainer ML

1

Alina Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 5-2

2

Keep the Peace Leparoux J R Kenneally Eddie 2-1

3

Temper Temper Lanerie C J Arnold George R II 15-1

4

Secret Gypsy Trujillo E Werner Ronny 4-1

5

Pious Ashley Hernandez B J Jr Romans Dale 10-1

6

Tiz to Dream Castellano J J Wilkes Ian R 7-2

7

Acoma Albarado R J Carroll David 10-1

   Picks:  1 - 2 - 4 - 7


No less than four of the seven runners in the Grade 3 Dogwood return from a meeting in the Grade 3 La Troien on the Kentucky Derby undercard. 

The Grade 3 La Troien turned out to be a showcase for three of the finest fillies in the division:  Game Face (the winner), Keep The Peace (runner-up by a neck), and Alina (a disappointing fourth but beaten barely two lengths) put on a show in the La Troien.  Here were my pre-race comments for the La Troien:  “There is no letdown in this outstanding field of 3-year-old fillies.  If you twist my arm, I would focus on Keep the Peace, Game Face, and Alina.  There is very little to separate the three high class fillies.  Alina finished a strong front-running second to (Kentucky Derby bound) Eight Belles in the two-turn Fantasy at Oaklawn.  Keep the Peace was nosed out by the outstanding filly Bsharpsonata in the Forward Gal at Gulfstream Park.  Game Face was second to the same Bsharpsonata in the Davona Dale, also at Gulfstream Park.  And there is the West Coast phenom Secret Gypsy who earned a 100 Beyer in her only race to-date (a sprint).  You could throw a blanket over the top three or four.“ 

As it turned out, Game Face won a grueling, stretch long battle edging Keep The Peace while Alina never really got geared up and settled for a close-up fourth.  Despite settling for second, Keep The Peace earned a career best 95 Beyer in the La Troien and I have to believe it took something out of her.  That would tend to swing the door of opportunity wide open for Alina who earned a 91 Beyer (and will be ready to bounce back to the 98 she earned against Eight Belles in the Fantasy).

Secret Gypsy set the pace in the La Troien before finally fading to fifth (beaten only about 5 lengths) and in only her third career start she could be a handful.  I have to believe Secret Gypsy was aided by the lighting fast track on the Derby day undercard, and she won’t have that working for her today.  But she remains dangerous on the front end.

Tiz To Dream exceed all expectations, finishing a close-up third in the La Troien (and earning a career best 91 Beyer).  With a previous high Beyer on dirt of 76 (a maiden allowance) we have to expect Tiz To Dream to digress in the Dogwood.  

Acoma and Temper Temper exit the same first-level allowance here at Churchill Downs on May 11.  Acoma defeated Temper Temper by ¾ of a length over sloppy going and neither filly has yet to break the 80 Beyer barrier (much less 90).  Both fillies were sired by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker.  

Pious Ashley won a maiden allowance (78 Beyer) here at Churchill Downs (on the final race of the Derby undercard) for trainer Dale Romans.  She followed up her graduation with a fifth (beaten 9 ½ lengths) in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico.  The Dogwood will be the second stakes (and third start overall) for the 3-year-old daughter of Include.


Churchill Downs - Race 8 Wager Recommendation

For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$25 Exacta 1 with 2/4/7 ($75)
$20 Exacta 2/4/7 with 1 ($60)
10¢ Superfecta 1 with ALL with 2/4/7 with ALL ($6)
10¢ Superfecta 2/4/7 with 1 with ALL with ALL ($6)

Total Wagers $
147

For "Lighter" Bettors
$10 Exacta 1 with 2/4/7 ($30)
$5 Exacta 2/4/7 with 1 ($15)
10¢ Superfecta 1 with ALL with 2/4/7 with ALL ($6)
10¢ Superfecta 2/4/7 with 1 with ALL with ALL ($6)
Total Wagers $57

For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$125 Place 1 ($125)
$10 Exacta 2/4/7 with 1 ($30)
Total Wagers $155

For "Power Ball" Bettors
10
¢ Superfecta ALL with ALL with 4 with ALL ($12)
Total Wagers $12


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Churchill Downs - Race 10  [Post 5:51 EDT]
GRADE 3 ARISTIDES STAKES
6 Furlongs (Main Track) 3-Years-Old And Up Stakes Purse $125,000

Prg # Horse Jockey Trainer ML

1

Esperamos Trujillo E Ward Wesley A 4-1

2

Elite Squadron Castellano J J Baker James E 7-2

3

Carnacks Choice Albarado R J Foley Gregory D 15-1

4

Indian Chant Theriot H J II Amoss Thomas 2-1

5

Kelly's Landing Leparoux J R Kenneally Eddie 5-2

6

Noonmark Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 9-2

   Picks:  4 - 6 - 5 - 2


The Grade 3 Aristides is host to a compact and competitive field of experienced sprinters.  Half of the field of six returns from a meeting in the Churchill Downs Stakes four weeks ago on the Kentucky Derby undercard.  Elite Squadron ran off and hid (at odds of 4.4-to-1) in the seven panel stakes with a career high Beyer of 105.  Lukewarm favorite Noonmark finished a belated second (about 4 ½ lengths back of Elite Squadron) and outsider Carnacks Choice finished a well beaten seventh.  The Churchill strip was playing like a cement highway on Derby day, this after being sealed several times in an attempt to speed up the drying out process prior to the running of the Derby.  Elite Squadron set a torrid 1:08 fraction for three-quarters on his way to a career best 1:21 2/5 for seven furlongs.  Don’t expect such dramatic times today.  Elite Squadron will still be fast out of the gate but there is plenty of other speed in the race and Elite Squadron will probably be overplayed.  Noonmark stands to improve off a deceptively good Churchill Downs Stakes.  Noonmark finished ahead of Junior College in the Churchill Downs and that gets him high marks with me.

Esperamos has suddenly blossomed from a struggling maiden into a back-to-back triple digit Beyer sprinter.  How did he do it?  Wesley Ward took over training duties from Hugh Robertson (who already had Esperamos on the road to improvement) and Esperamos immediately responded with a 7 ½ length romp in second-level allowance conditions at Hawthorne (earning a 104 Beyer).  Then Esperamos took a suspicious four month vacation from the races only to return with a splash by defeating optional claimers at Oaklawn Park by 9 lengths under wraps (setting a career high 108 Beyer).  Esperamos was shipped overseas for the $2 million Golden Shaheen in Dubai and finished 6th in a field of 15 (beaten by the winner Benny The Bull but finishing ahead of Diabolical in 7th).  To give you an idea of how dramatic the turnaround is for Esperamos, consider this:  Esperamos is 0 for 5 at Churchill
Downs with a high Beyer of 66.  His improvement looks real enough to me, but the Golden Shaheen was the first career stakes for Esperamos.

Speaking of Dubai, Kelly’s Landing is the winner of the 2007 Golden Shaheen.  Kelly’s Landing earned a 117 Racing Post Rating (as opposed to a 100 for Esperamos) in the Golden Shaheen, which was in my judgement his finest career performance.  Another of Kelly’s Landing's best career performances came in the 2006 edition of the Aristides (right here at Churchill) where he finished a strong second to Lost In The Fog (earning a 108 Beyer for his trouble).  Kelly’s Landing finished third in an optional claimer over a sloppy track here at Churchill Downs after a 6 ½ month freshening.  He will be better today but the modest 80 Beyer he registered is of some concern.  The winner of that optional claimer was Indian Chant, second place finisher to Junior College in the Hot Springs Stakes (Oaklawn Park) in late March.  Indian Chant has thrown some gaudy Beyer figures in allowance competition but has limited experience in graded stakes.
 

Churchill Downs - Race 10 Wager Recommendation

For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$15 Exacta 4 with 2/5/6 ($45)
$10 Exacta 2/5/6 with 4 ($30)
10¢ Superfecta 4 with ALL with ALL with ALL ($6)
10¢ Superfecta ALL with 4 with ALL with ALL ($6)

Total Wagers $87

For "Lighter" Bettors
$5 Exacta 4 with 2/5/6 ($15)
$3 Exacta 2/5/6 with 4 ($9)
10¢ Superfecta 4 with ALL with ALL with ALL ($6)
10¢ Superfecta ALL with 4 with ALL with ALL ($6)

Total Wagers $36

For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$50 Place 4 ($50)
$5 Exacta 4 with 2/5/6 ($15)
Total Wagers $65

For "Power Ball" Bettors
10
¢ Superfecta ALL with ALL with ALL with 3/6 ($12)
Total Wagers $12


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