"The Breeders Cup 2006 Classic"
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
CLASSIC
The 2006 edition of the Breeders Cup Classic is a classic in the
truest sense of the term, playing host to three of the four top
rated horses in the world: Lava Man (best handicap horse on the
west coast), Bernardini (best handicap horse in the entire U.S.),
and George Washington (European grass champion trying the dirt for
the first time). The Classic also features grass specialist David
Junior, winner the of $5 million Dubai Duty Free in March of this
year, and the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Newmarket) in
2005. The 1 1/4 mile distance over the Churchill Downs main course
is reminiscent of this year's Kentucky Derby (won by Barbaro). And
although the cast of characters has changed, the strategy of the
riders has not. The winner will need to stay in contact with the
leaders and begin to surge at the one mile point in the race. Kiaran McLaughlin enters Invasor, an Argentinian-bred who burst on
the scene this year with three eye-opening wins in four starts,
his only loss a career debut (fourth) against Discreet Cat at Nad
Al Sheba. The pedigree of Invasor is sprinkled with grass breeding
and I believe that is where the future lies for the talented colt. In the meantime, he should run a good Classic but will probably
not offer value. The sensational grass specialist David Junior is
ostensibly bred to run on grass and despite his sterling record
(seven wins in twelve starts) I expect he may digress in his dirt
debut. In the biggest upset in Breeders Cup history, the
French-bred grass runner Arcangues won the Classic in 1993 at odds
of 133-1, but he did so against a suspect Classic field, and that
is simply not the case in 2006. Lava Man, handled by Doug O'Neil,
is the best handicap horse in California, and this son of Slew
City Slew is peaking at the right moment. Lava Man has the ability
to run well on either dirt or grass, and O'Neil brushed a master
stroke by entering Lava Man in the Charles Whittingham Stakes (on
grass) in the summer. Lava Man won with a brilliant performance,
and the surface change kept him fresh and the result is Lava Man
is in peak form for the Classic. On the down side, Lava Man has
not performed all that well outside the confines of the state of
California, and that could be a concern today in Louisville. We
all knew Bernardini was something special on that fateful day in
May when Barbaro was seriously injured in the Preakness, but
Bernardini went on to a dominating win. Bernardini is the early
favorite for the Classic, and his recent performances have
earned him favoritism.
Racing for Darley Stable, and trained by Thomas
Albertrani, this son of A.P. Indy has been simply lights out. When
he left Bluegrass Cat for dead at the top of the stretch in the
Travers (Saratoga), Bernardini stamped himself early favorite for
Horse of the Year as well. With six dominating wins in seven
starts, there's little not to like. O.K., naysayers, he's merely a
3-year-old, and that's a strike against him. Also, he will be
facing the toughest field of his brief career. Dan Hendricks
saddles Brother Derek, once the hottest item in California. Having
been humbled by Bernardini in the Preakness, and exposed in the
process, Brother Derek rebounded to finish second (behind Lava
Man) in the Goodwood at Santa Anita. Brother Derek should not be
ignored, and he may offer wagering value, but he will need the
performance of a lifetime to win the 2006 Classic.
Todd Pletcher
saddles Flower Alley, a professional handicap horse but probably
outclassed today. With Mr. Prospector on both sides of his
pedigree, Flower Alley will be limited by the 1 1/4 mile distance and
the high level of competition. Flower Alley has raced well in the
east, though, and he has Pletcher in his corner. Perfect Drift
finished third (behind Saint Liam and Flower Alley) in last year's
Breeders Cup Classic, and he is a true road warrior, but his best
racing days are behind him, leaving him with little chance to win
but he is a possible in the exotics (on sheer determination). Long
shot 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo is a mild danger from off
the pace, but he needs a career best performance and help from a
very fast pace in order to win. Giacomo will retired to stud after
the Classic. Edgar Prado is scheduled to ride Woodward Stakes winner
Premium Tap. The son of Pleasant Tap is a serviceable handicap
horse (trained by John Kimmel) with a front running style that may
hinder his chances in the Classic. Sun King (trained by Nick Zito)
is best at a mile, and even at a mile he probably doesn't rank
with the best in here. Super Frolic sometimes runs out of his
shoes, and he will need to in order to make an impact. The
(3-year-old) European champion miler George Washington is entered
for the Classic, in an eyebrow-raising move by the connections
(trainer Aiden O'Brien). A multiple Group 1 winner on grass in
Europe, including the Irish 2000 Guineas this year, George
Washington has never run out of the money, and he has also never
raced on dirt, until today. The sire Danehill is a prime source of
grass aptitude, although the dam sire Alysheba may inject some
dirt aptitude. Still it is a huge gamble to switch surfaces from
grass, where George Washington is one of the best in the world, to
dirt, where he is untested. After watching Lawyer Ron lose to
Strong Contender in the Super Derby on the speed favoring
Louisiana Downs course, I am convinced Lawyer Ron is not Breeders
Cup Classic winning material. Lawyer Ron (recently turned over to Pletcher) can be scary fast for intervals, but probably not for a
grueling mile and a half at Louisville.
Copyright 2006
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
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