"The Breeders Cup 2006 Juvenile Fillies"
by Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
JUVENILE FILLIES
As the November 4 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs approaches, no
race appears as wide open as the Juvenile Fillies. Nearly all of
the 2-year-old fillies being pointed toward the 1 1/16-mile race
have questions surrounding their form, including early hopefuls
Cash Included and Dreaming of Anna. The pace of the race looks to
be incredibly fast, so we give a long hard look to the best of the
closers. Helen Pitts pointed to Bel Air Beauty's upset victory in
the October 6 Alcibiades at 47-1 odds as evidence that the
division is wide open. Bel Air Beauty won on the Keeneland
polytrack but she is bred to handle a dirt surface and the Juvy
Filly will be her first race on dirt and third race overall. Gatorize is another talented closer trained by Pitts. Fifth in the Alcibiades but beaten only about four lengths, look for Gatorize
to improve on dirt and she will offer real betting value. Gatorize
broke near the back of the pack in the Alcibiad (Keeneland) and
worked her way to a determined fifth place finish and showed good
energy at the wire. Sutra, a daughter of the champion Meadowlark
and surprise winner of the Frizette at Belmont, looks very
legitimate with the guaranteed fast pace. She earned only a 68
Beyer Speed Figure in the Frizette, but trainer Mike Stidham wants
to give her a chance in the Breeders Cup. Enchanting Star,
runner-up in the Frizette at odds of 47-1, took three tries to
break her maiden at Delaware Park and is not entered in the Juvy
Filly. Also, Meadow Breeze who disappointed as favorite in the Frizette by running ninth, is not entered. Several fillies possess
lightning speed, and these include Octave (lost to the overrated
Meadow Breeze), Untouched Talent, Adhrythm, Appealing Zophie, Cash
Included, Cotton Blossom, and Dreaming of Anna. Of these, Cash
Included could be the most promising off her dominant Santa Anita
form. Cash Included upset Point Ashley in the Oak Leaf (Santa
Anita) and we look for more improvement with experience. Untouched
Talent has been very consistent for trainer Jeffe Bonde and would
have
threatened in the exotics. Untouched Talent, a daughter of Storm
Cat, finished a fast closing second to Point Ashley in the Del Mar Debante
but is unable to continue her ascent today (in the Juvy Filly) as
she has been withdrawn by handler Jeff Bonde.
Appealing Zophie looks destined to become embattled in a pace
duel, and that will hurt her chances tremendously, but the Scott
Blasi charge exits an excellent prep in the Alcibiad (Keeneland).
Finishing sixth but beaten only 4 1/2 lengths after setting the
pace for a mile on the tiring polytrack surface, Appealing Zophie
will be a close-up factor for most if not all of the running in
the Juvy Filly. Cottom Blossom, trained by Todd Pletcher, has
shown an ability to rate off the pace, and that should enhance her
chances to hit the board. Cotton Blossom finished second to
runaway winner Appealing Zophie in the Spinaway in early September
and we look for continued improvement under the watchful eye of
handler Todd Pletcher. Awesome Ashley, also trained by Pletcher
and not to be confused with Point Ashley, finished a respectable
fourth in the Frizette (won by Sutra) and the Breeders Cup
Juvenile Filly would be only her fourth lifetime start if she were able
to draw in. Dreaming of Anna, owned by Frank Calabrese and trained
by Wayne Catalano, looks to be pure speed but quite talented and
an interesting betting proposition. The same can be said for
Florida based Adhrhythm, trained by Ed Plesa. Lilly Carson was a
late pre-entry by trainer Ralph Nicks, but the front runner looks
to be up against it, considering the abundance of speed in the
race, even though she did draw in. Trainer Dale Romans is excellent in big
races, and he enters Baroness Thatcher in the Juvy Filly, although
she was not selected in the top fourteen. The lightly raced
Baroness Thatcher took three tries to graduate the maiden
allowance ranks, but she flashed great speed in her maiden victory
and is bred to run well on an off track (should she draw in). Quick Little Miss is a surprise selection by the Breeders Cup
selection committee. Third place finisher in the Oak Leaf (Santa
Anita) seven lengths beaten by Cash Included, Quick Little Miss
defeated eight of ten rivals and finished with good energy. Quick
Little Miss is not the fastest filly in the Juvy Filly but a quick
pace will aid her cause. She's Included is another surprise
qualifier, off her third place finish (to Point Ashley) in the
seven panel Del Mar Debante, however the pace of the Juvy Filly
will probably be too heated for She's Included to make a
significant impact. The best betting strategy will be to look for
the best of the closers and include them with the most logical
speedsters.
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