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139th Belmont June 9
The Belmont Watch 2007
From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com

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Hard Spun

Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths, but then he lost in the Southwest (at Oaklawn Park) as the 1-to-2 favorite. He bounced back to easily win the Lane's End (on Polytrack) at Turfway and, as we all know, ran the race of his life to finish 2nd to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby. Hard Spun came back down to earth in the Preakness, but still ran a very respectable 3rd under difficult circumstances. He had little choice but to run into the teeth of a suicidal pace, and then had to deal with the intimidating late moves of Curlin and Street Sense. Hard Spun held on for a third place finish in the Preakness, beaten only 4 1/2 lengths, in perhaps the fastest Preakness in history. Now Hard Spun is ready to try his luck in the Belmont Stakes. Hard Spun must somehow nurse his brilliant speed for the entire 1 and 1/2 miles of the Belmont. There will no speed bias or sharp turns to aid him, either. Hard Spun is sired by the top stallion Danzig, who died in 2006 at the age of 29. Danzig sired 107 graded stakes winners in his lifetime. The sire of Danzig is Northern Dancer, the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Northern Dancer was small for a champion, standing at only 14 hands 2 1/2 inches, but he defeated his competitors with brilliant speed and a big heart. About 75% of modern thoroughbreds can be traced back to Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer, the sire of champions, died in 1990. Turkish Tryst is Hard Spun's dam. Turkish Tryst , a daughter of Turkoman, injects great stamina into the pedigree of Hard Spun. However, being a grandson of Northern Dancer is not necessarily an advantage in the Belmont. Danzig is out of the mare Pas De Nom, primarily a pure speed influence, and this further restricts Hard Spun at the classic distances. Pace will be a critical factor in determining Hard Spun's chances in the Belmont. The presence of Slew's Tizzy and Rags To Riches will be complicating factors for Hard Spun, and so will the 1 and 1/2 mile distance. Hard Spun enters the third and final installment of the 2007 Triple Crown already having worked incredibly hard. He will need a slow pace, and he might not get it. An aside, owner Rick Porter is close to finalizing a deal that will assign the breeding rights of Hard Spun to Darley Stable, which recently acquired the rights to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

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Digger

On Wednesday morning, June 6, the connections of Digger withdrew him from consideration for the Belmont.

Owner Larry Roman, a native of Queens, got his start in harness racing, not thoroughbred racing, and he was an accomplished amateur driver at one time. He is the owner of a Manhattan-based plumbing company, and he has an eye for the spotlight. He owned Lawrence The Roman, once a rising star in the New York bred ranks, who won the Damon Runyon Stakes in December 2006 but has subsequently been retired. Roman must have caught Triple Crown fever with Lawrence The Roman, because about 5 weeks ago he purchased Maryland-bred Digger from William Wise for $60,000, and turned him over to New York-based trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. (trainer of Lawrence The Roman). Digger was briefly considered run in the Belmont, a race for which Digger would have been woefully inadequate. With 2 wins in 8 overall starts, and a recent loss in a Charles Town conditioned allowance race, Digger had no chance to win. His best effort in a stakes race was a 3rd place finish in a field of 5, and that was against (Maryland) state-breds (at Laurel). His best overall effort was a runaway maiden allowance victory (also at Laurel), but even if he were to repeat his performance from that race, he would have no chance in the Belmont. His pedigree is not suited for the classics, and the best we could have expected from Digger is brief to moderate pace, and then he would have folded like a house of cards in a hurricane.

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Circular Quay

On Tuesday morning, June 5, the connections of Circular Quay withdrew him from consideration for the Belmont.

Let's take a look at him anyway. Todd Pletcher was convinced that 'Quay' was his best shot at a Derby victory for 2007. Pletcher's decision to rest 'Quay' for the 8 weeks (actually 57 days) leading up to the Derby was an attempt to bring Circular Quay in very fresh. The brief freshening probably is not the cause of Circular Quay's lackluster sixth place finish in the Derby. His style is to lay back and make one big ferocious run, and Pletcher knew that he would be able to do that just fine with an 8 week rest. It just didn't work out as planned in the Kentucky Derby. The only drawback on Circular Quay is that he has not yet registered a superior speed figure. His Kentucky Derby performance was a respectable performance, but not a championship performance. He passed twelve horses from the three-quarters mark to the finish, but he was still beaten by more than nine lengths by Street Sense, and he finished behind two also-rans, Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield. His Preakness performance at first appearance was not unlike his Derby performance. He finished fifth (beaten about 7 lengths) in the Preakness. He finished sixth (beaten about 10 lengths) in the Kentucky Derby. In both Triple Crown races he passed several horses from the three-quarters mark to the finish. But in the Preakness, he averaged just over 6 seconds for each sixteenth from the three-quarters mark to the finish. That is a determined and fast finish. Circular Quay did this over a speed favoring track, granted he was aided by a wicked fast pace. The bottom line is that Circular Quay could not have been overlooked in a 1 1/2 mile race over the Belmont course of the same distance, had he run. But with 4 wins in 9 overall starts, Circular Quay is beginning to show some chinks in the armor. But 'Quay' would have have been good enough to figure in the outcome of the Belmont, and would have been a serious candidate. Circular Quay is a son of Thunder Gulch, winner of 8 graded stakes including the 1995 Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Gulch, the sire of Thunder Gulch, is a son of Mr. Prospector. Northern Dancer is present in both the sire and dam lines of Circular Quay. The combination of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer injects superior class Circular Quay's aptitude, but possibly limit his outlook for the classic distances.

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2007 Preakness Review

There will be no Triple Crown winner in 2007 as Curlin runs down Street Sense in the last jump in one of the most exciting Preakness Stakes in history. Calvin Borel had Street Sense in front with 100 yards to go and looked to be a winner until Curlin (under rider Robbie Albarado) commenced a fierce rally to the outside of Street Sense and nipped the Derby champ at the wire. The time for the 1 3/16 miles of the Preakness (at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland) was 1:53.46 (ties for the fastest Preakness in history). Hard Spun held third and C P West secured fourth.

12th Race
132nd Preakness (Grade 1)

Pgm

Horse

Jockey

Win

Place

Show

4

Curlin

Albarado R J

8.80

3.80

2.80

8

Street Sense

Borel C H

3.00

2.40

7

Hard Spun

Pino M G

3.00

Times in 5ths: :22⁴ :45³ 1:09⁴ 1:34³ 1:53²
Times in 100ths: :22.83 :45.75 1:09.80 1:34.68 1:53.46

Also ran: C P West, Circular Quay, King of the Roxy, Mint Slewlep, Xchanger and Flying First Class
Winning Trainer: Asmussen Steven M - Owner: Stonestreet Stables, Padua Stables, Bolton, George and Midnight Cry Stables

$2 Exacta (4-8) Paid $23.20
$1 Superfecta (4-8-7-9) Paid $340.30
$2 Trifecta (4-8-7) Paid $50.00

ARTICLES

The Kentucky Derby Jinx [An Excerpt From HORSING AROUND: A GUIDE FOR THE EVERYDAY HORSEPLAYER Released 2007]
Slew's Tizzy Earns Free Ticket to Derby   April 21
Dominican Gets The Nod On Street Sense In Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes   April 14
Business As Usual For Curlin In Grade 2 Arkansas Derby April 14
Huge Upset By Tiago In Santa Anita Derby   April 7
Nobiz Like Shobiz Impresses In Grade 1 Wood Memorial April 7
Grade 1 Florida Derby Belongs to Scat Daddy   March 31
Hard Spun Outstanding In Lane's End March 24
Street Sense Wins Extended Duel In Tampa Bay Derby March 17
Curlin Opens Plenty Of Eyes In Grade 3 Rebel March 17
Cowtown Cat Sizzles In Grade 3 Gotham March 10

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Circular Quay Turns It Up A Notch In Louisiana Derby March 10
Great Hunter Dominates Robert B. Lewis March 3
Scat Daddy By A Nose (Hair) In Fountain Of Youth March 3
Teuflesberg Wires Southwest While Hard Spun Spins Wheels February 19
Any Given Saturday Victorious In Sam F. Davis February 17
Circular Quay Victim Of Traffic Jam February 10
Shobiz Lays Down The Gauntlet February 3

Kentucky Derby 2007
Rankings By Graded Stakes Earnings

RANKING

HORSE

1

STREET SENSE

2

SCAT DADDY

3

CIRCULAR QUAY

4

CURLIN

5

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ

6

GREAT HUNTER

7

STORMELLO

8

DOMINICAN

9

TIAGO

10

COWTOWN CAT

11

HARD SPUN

12

STORM IN MAY

13
ZANJERO

14

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY

15

LIQUIDITY

16

SAM P

17

SEDGEFIELD

18

BWANA BULL

19

TEUFLESBERG

20

IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY

The above Earnings Rankings include only those horses that are intending on running in the Kentucky Derby, May 5, 2007.

Kentucky Derby 2007
Post Positions [And Program Number]

PGM NO.	HORSE
1	SEDGEFIELD
2	CURLIN
3	ZANJERO
4	STORM IN MAY
5	IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
6	COWTOWN CAT
7	STREET SENSE
8	HARD SPUN
9	LIQUIDITY
10	TEUFLESBERG
11	BWANA BULL
12	NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
13	SAM P.
14	SCAT DADDY
15	TIAGO
16	CIRCULAR QUAY
17	STORMELLO
18	ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
19	DOMINICAN
20	GREAT HUNTER

The Preakness 2007 Probables

HORSE

CURLIN

HARD SPUN

STREET SENSE

KING OF THE ROXY

C P WEST

FLYING FIRST CLASS

XCHANGER

MINT SLEWLEP

CIRCULAR QUAY

Preakness Stakes 2007
Post Positions

PGM NO.	HORSE	JOCKEY
1	MINT SLEWLEP	ALAN GARCIA
2	XCHANGER	RAMON DOMINGUEZ
3	CIRCULAR QUAY	J R VELAZQUEZ
4	CURLIN	ROBBIE ALBARADO
5	KING OF THE ROXY	GARRETT GOMEZ
6	FLYING FIRST CLASS	MARK GUIDRY
7	HARD SPUN	MARIO PINO
8	STREET SENSE	CALVIN BOREL
9	C P WEST	EDGAR PRADO

The 139th Belmont Stakes, June 9, 2007

PGM	NAME	JOCKEY	TRAINER	M. L. ODDS
1	IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY	MARK GUIDRY	WILLIAM KAPLAN	20
2	TIAGO	MIKE SMITH	JOHN SHIRREFFS	10
3	CURLIN	ROBBIE ALBARADO	STEVE ASMUSSEN	6-5
4	C P WEST	EDGAR PRADO	NICK ZITO	12
5	SLEW'S TIZZY	RAFAEL BEJARANO	GREGORY FOX	20
6	HARD SPUN	GARRETT GOMEZ	LARRY JONES	5-2
7	RAGS TO RICHES	JOHN VELAZQUEZ	TODD PLETCHER	3

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"Slew's Tizzy Earns Free Ticket to Derby"
by Jim Lambert

'Tizzy' Stuns Crowd In Lexington Stakes

A week after Dominican paid $18.00 to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, long shot Slew's Tizzy ($83.00) claimed victory in the Lexington Stakes, the final graded Derby prep. The irony of the success of Keeneland's new Polytrack racing surface (installed in time for the 2007 meet) is that the results of the Keeneland Derby preps should have little or no impact on the results of the Kentucky Derby except possibly influencing who gets in. Why, do you ask? Because Polytrack performance generally does not translate into dirt performance. Remember, the Kentucky Derby is still run on dirt. The Lexington Stakes is contested at 1 1/16 miles on the artificial surface, and Slew's Tizzy negotiated the distance in 1:43.20.

Slew's Tizzy, until today, was best known for his spill in the Risen Star Stakes that nearly cost Derby contender Circular Quay his chance for glory. As it turned out Circular Quay evaded injury thanks to good fortune and the quick reactions of rider J. R. Velazquez. In the Lexington, Robbie Albarado (James Graham rode Slew's Tizzy in the Risen Star) placed 'Tizzy' on or near the lead going into the 1st turn and he never relinquished the lead although headed briefly by Soaring By. Leading up to the Lexington, Slew's Tizzy had only one victory in five starts, but it was on Keeneland's Polytrack. By virtue of the $195,000 payday, Slew's Tizzy is assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby if his connections want it.

On a dirt surface Slew's Tizzy is 0 for 3 and his best performance is a 7th place finish in the Louisiana Derby, about 11 1/2 lengths shy of the winner Circular Quay. On the positive side 'Tizzy' has only six lifetime starts, so maybe he is peaking at the right time. But maybe not. That's the problem with Polytrack preps, they don't offer much in the way of useful information. An aside, the fleet of foot Xchanger won the un-graded Tesio Stakes at Pimlico today by 8 lengths, and Xchanger would have a better chance than Slew's Tizzy to do well in the Kentucky Derby.

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A footnote to the Lexington, lukewarm favorite Belgravia (9-to-5 odds) finished last in his 2007 debut and set up some astronomical payoffs. Slew's Tizzy won at odds of 40-to-1 and Starbase finished second at odds of 36-to-1, delivering a $1,002.20 exacta payoff for $2 Forty Grams finished third at odds of 5-to-1 resulting in a huge $14,726.20 trifecta payout for a $2 ticket (that's $7,363.10 for a dollar before the IRS man finds you).

"Dominican Gets The Nod On Street Sense In Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes"
by Jim Lambert

Rushaway Winner Dominican Wins Again On Polytrack

The management at Keeneland (in Lexington, Kentucky) must be patting each other on the back. Their controversial move to Polytrack last year is paying big dividends in 2007. The new artificial surface is keeping horses safer (injuries are down from pre-Polytrack days) and providing for much closer, exciting races on the whole. That makes both the horsemen and the horseplayers happy, and that's the name of the game. And to make things better, two of the marquis Kentucky Derby prospects, Street Sense and Great Hunter, squared off in the Toyota Blue Grass Saturday.

Street Sense comes in off his thrilling victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Great Hunter comes in off his relatively easy win in the Robert B. Lewis. Teuflesberg, Zanjero, and Dominican head up the main competition to the top two choices.

Here is the synopsis I wrote for my HRH Racing Digest readers last night:

The grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass is a mile and one-eighth on the All Weather Track. A steady rain (up to one inch) is forecast for Saturday, but if the track drains the way Polytrack is advertised we should have a fair race. Only Love Dubai (#3) and Time Squared (#5) are not stakes placed, so that leaves a balance of five other horses. The System Toteboard isolates #2 (Dominican), #6 (Teuflesberg), #7 (Great Hunter) and #1 (Zanjero) as the key value horses, and leaves out the probable post-time favorite Street Sense (#4). That does not mean we ignore Street Sense, but it means we look to the others for value, particularly Great Hunter, who has a solid aptitude for the Polytrack surface and class to spare.

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What happened in the Blue Grass, besides the four horse blanket finish of Dominican, Street Sense, Zanjero, and Teuflesberg? Teuflesberg was able to set a pedestrian pace of 26.12 for the quarter, 51.46 for the half, and 1:16.65 for three quarters, and that's slow even for a Polytrack race, where riders have learned to restrain their mounts early, much like they do in a grass race. Great Hunter took up the chase but could not sustain his bid, bothered by a tiring Teuflesberg in deep stretch, and failed to hit the board, finishing 5th, but was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the winner Dominican. Street Sense, the even money favorite, timed his move well but lost the nod to Dominican ($18.00), who got an outside trip and rushed to the leaders at the wire for his winning bid.

Dominican defeated a lesser group in the Rushaway at Turfway Park in March, run also on Polytrack, and that is the key for Dominican. Unfortunately for Dominican, the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt (for now). Dominican's winning time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Blue Grass was 1:51.33.

What does all this mean for the Kentucky Derby? Absolutely nothing. Performance on Polytrack does not translate into performance on dirt. If you really want to know how to handicap Polytrack, you need to check out my new book, and you'll get a lot more than that (127 pages worth of handicapping and good old fashion entertainment). Just click below to check it out.

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A footnote to the Blue Grass, Dominican is now 3 for 3 on Polytrack, and he is 0 for 4 on dirt. He is not a Derby threat.

"Business As Usual For Curlin In Grade 2 Arkansas Derby"
by Jim Lambert

Curlin Following Hoof-Prints Of Smarty Jones

This morning, April 14, Saturday, I jotted down a few notes in preparation for the $1million Arkansas Derby. The Arkansas Derby is run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Oaklawn Park. Let's take a peek at my pre-race notes:

All eyes will be on Curlin, impressive winner of the Rebel 4 weeks ago in just his 2nd lifetime start (Smarty Jones won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby in 2004 on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby). In the Rebel Stakes, Curlin closed out the final three eighths averaging 12 and 2/5 seconds per furlong, very, very impressive. He beat Officer Rocket, who is back again today, but Officer Rocket could not get close to Curlin with his best, so why should that change today? Steve Asmussen handles Curlin and Bob Holthus trains Officer Rocket, so expect both colts to be very well prepared today. Curlin is capable of early pace, but will probably let Deadly Dealer (Todd Pletcher), Flying First Class (D Wayne Lukas), and Storm In May (William Kaplan) set the early fractions. Deadly Dealer manhandled a group of first level allowance foes in early March, but gets his first real test today. Curlin will be able to stalk the pace setters and should be very tough in the stretch, but let's see just how good he really is. Officer Rocket is not a front line Derby threat, so if Curlin cannot put "Rocket" away, that is a sign of weakness. Flying First Class and Storm In May could hold on until mid stretch, and this will be another test for Curlin. Also, Going Ballistic and Delightful Kiss are proven closers, and may provide a late test for Curlin, although neither is in the same class. I was looking forward to watching For You Reppo (Helen Pitts) run today, after his respectable 4th in the Lane's End, but he is a race day scratch. Curlin is one of my top five Derby contenders coming in to the Arkansas Derby.

How did the race go? Curlin ($3.60) stalked the early pace setter Deadly Dealer, as anticipated, and absolutely murdered the field in the Oaklawn stretch, winning by daylight times two. The final time was 1:50.09, very fast considering Curlin has only three lifetime starts, for goodness sakes, and considering he won by a country mile. Curlin has answered all questions, and he is headed to the Triple Crown, and he will be one of the top two to three favorites, and deservedly so. As for the others, Storm In May ran 2nd, and Deadly Dealer held on for 3rd, but they were so far back as to be considered personae not gratae.

What about Curlin's pedigree? Curlin is a son of Smart Strike, who is a son of Mr. Prospector, undeniably the best Triple Crown sire in recent times. His grandson Unbridled won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. Mr. Prospector's great-grandsons Real Quiet (1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) and Grindstone (1996 Kentucky Derby) won Triple Crown events. His son Conquistador Cielo won the 1982 Belmont. Other descendants winning Triple Crown events are Birdstone (2004 Belmont), Tank’s Prospect (1985 Preakness), Hansel (1991 Preakness and Belmont), Timber Country (1995 Preakness), Victory Gallop (1998 Belmont), Thunder Gulch (1995 Derby and Belmont), Point Given (2001 Preakness and Belmont), Smarty Jones (2004 Derby and Preakness), Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont), Editor’s Note (1996 Belmont), Funny Cide (2003 Derby and Preakness), War Emblem (2002 Derby and Preakness), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000 Derby). You get the picture. Curlin is influenced by Deputy Minister (and hence, Northern Dancer) on the dam side.

A footnote to the Arkansas Derby, Steve Asmussen set the single day training mark in the history of Oaklawn Park with 5 wins, including 3 stakes, capping it off with Curlin's victory in the Arkansas Derby. Not a bad day, all in all.

"Huge Upset By Tiago In Santa Anita Derby"
by Jim Lambert

'Roxy' Can't Hold Off Fast Closing Tiago

The second longest price on the board, Tiago ($60.60), stormed home on the rail to overtake runner-up King of the Roxy in a thrilling upset in the 1 1/8 mile grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. At the midpoint of the race, Black Seventeen, Liquidity, Sam P., and King of the Roxy raced within 1 1/2 lengths of each other, while Tiago (ridden by Mike Smith) languished some 12 lengths back of the front runners. When the real running began in upper stretch, King of the Roxy, Liquidity, and Sam P. all threatened for the lead, while Tiago angled toward the rail, all the time gaining momentum. As the stretch run ensued, King of the Roxy broke away from Liquidity and Sam P. but looked tired and his stride began to shorten noticeably. That was the cue for Tiago to rush past 'Roxy' for a 1/2 length victory at odds of 29-to-1.

John Shirreffs trains Tiago, as he did Tiago's half-brother Giacomo (winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby). The winning time for the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby was 1:49.51. Just how impressive was Tiago's victory? I always look at the last three furlongs, the crunch time of any route of ground. Tiago was 6 lengths (and change) back of the leader Black Seventeen at the 6 furlong marker, and the 6 furlong fraction was 1:11 and 2/5. Tiago clocked in at 1:49 and 2/5 for the 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. That puts him at about 36 and 4/5 for the last three furlongs (about 12 and 1/5 per furlong). That's a good effort at Santa Anita, maybe not a great effort, but certainly a very good effort.

Taking a look at the pedigree of Tiago, Tiago is sired by Pleasant Tap, a son of Pleasant Colony. Pleasant Tap is a multiple graded stakes winner who loved Churchill Downs and Santa Anita, a good omen for his son Tiago. Pleasant Colony, sire of Pleasant Tap, won two jewels of the Triple Crown in 1981 (Kentucky Derby and Preakness). Pleasant Colony ran 3rd in the 1981 Belmont. Another grandson of Pleasant Colony did well in a Derby prep today, as Sightseeing ran 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial.

A footnote to the Santa Anita Derby, Sam P. ran 3rd, about 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner.

"Nobiz Like Shobiz Impresses In Grade 1 Wood Memorial"
by Jim Lambert

'Shobiz' Holds Off Determined Sightseeing For The Win

In a courageous, eye-opening effort Nobiz Like Shobiz (B. Tagg trains and C. Velasquez rides) battled for inside position, contributed to scintillating early fractions (set by the threesome of 'Shobiz', Summer Doldrums, and Any Given Saturday), put away challenger Any Given Saturday, and fought off the fast closing Sightseeing for the win. The 1 1/8 mile Wood Memorial starts alarmingly close to the Aqueduct (outer dirt) first turn, so horses that lose position early are put at an immediate disadvantage. Knowing this, the riders urge their mounts early to secure position and then attempt to get a breather on the backstretch. 'Shobiz' jostled immediately with Flashstorm and was able to secure the rail early and maintain the rail for the entire race, an important and successful strategy. But Summer Doldrums and Any Given Saturday weren't done yet, as they combined with 'Shobiz' to set a brisk six panel fraction of 1:10.90, with 'Shobiz' on the rail and Any Given Saturday on the outside. As they left the 2nd turn, 'Shobiz' asserted himself and began to put away Any Given Saturday for good, while Summer Doldrums faded badly, but Sightseeing began to rumble on the far outside. Sightseeing (handled by Shug McGaughey) looked to pass 'Shobiz' but could not get past him as 'Shobiz' "rebroke" and would not relent, capturing the Wood by 1/2 length over Sightseeing.

Nobiz Like Shobiz ($3.40) registered a winning time of 1:49.46 for the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, and closed out the final three furlongs in 38.56 seconds (an average of 12 and 4/5 seconds per furlong).

Sightseeing averaged better than 11 and 4/5 seconds per furlong (that's fast) after getting a dream trip early and fast fractions to run at. Sightseeing earns enough for a ticket to the Derby with his 2nd place finish. Sightseeing is a son of Pulpit (who is a son A P Indy). He is out of the mare Resort, a moderately successful stakes runner, but Resort's father Pleasant Colony won two jewels of the Triple Crown in 1981 (Kentucky Derby and Preakness). Pleasant Colony ran 3rd in the 1981 Belmont. Another grandson of Pleasant Colony did well in a Derby prep today, as Tiago captured the Santa Anita Derby at odds of 29-to-1.

Taking a look at the pedigree of Nobiz Like Shobiz, 'Shobiz' is sired by Albert The Great, a winner of five graded events in 2001-2002. Albert The Great's sire, Go For Gin, is a Kentucky Derby winner (1994). The broodmare sire of 'Shobiz' is Storm Cat, a proven classic sire. As of December 2006, he has sired 93 winners of group or graded stakes races.

A footnote to the Wood Memorial, Any Given Saturday ran 3rd, about 4 lengths behind the winner.

Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer
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NEW HANDICAPPING BOOK: Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer By Jim Lambert. ON SALE NOW! A thoughtful yet simple presentation of horse race handicapping presented in a narrative mode. The latest hot button topics of 2007 are all hit on. From real life handicapping examples to Polytrack to the Maktoums of Dubai. And if that's not enough a fictional story set in the world of horse racing might be to your liking. All race case studies are from 2007.

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"Grade 1 Florida Derby Belongs to Scat Daddy"
by Jim Lambert

Determined Scat Daddy Takes 5th Win In 8 Starts

On a day that 2006 Horse of the Year Invasor captured the winner's share of the $6 million Dubai World Cup half way around the world, Scat Daddy ran down Stormello and then held off Notional to take the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Scat Daddy (handled by Todd Pletcher) broke alertly under strong handling from Edgar Prado and settled 3-wide on the backstretch, hitting a comfortable stride and never far from the front. Stormello, who suffered a heart-breaking loss at the hands of Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth just 4 weeks ago, again sprinted to the lead and stayed there until early to mid stretch. Then it was Scat Daddy ($6.40) who wrestled the lead and never looked back, registering a winning time of 1:49.00 flat for the 1 1/8 miles of the Florida Derby.

Notional (Doug O'Neil trains) finished an inspiring 2nd after getting a dream trip tracking the leaders in 5th place along the rail down the backstretch. A son of In Excess, Notional is probably not suited to handle the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby, but he looked great (bet down to 3-to-1) today at Gulfstream Park.

More interesting to me is Chelokee, 3rd place finisher (at 8-to-1 odds), who closed strongly for the show after a troubled trip. Handled by Mike Matz (trained Barbaro), Chelokee is a son of Cherokee Run. Although Cherokee Run specialized in long distance sprinting, he did win at 1 1/8 miles (Grade 2 1993 Dwyer), and he also ran 2nd in the Preakness Stakes (at 1 3/16 miles) the same year. Watch out for Chelokee, although he'll need some more graded stakes money to qualify for the Derby.

Here is a review of Scat Daddy's pedigree:

Nearly one-third of of the pedigree of Scat Daddy can be traced back to a single horse, the brilliant Mr. Prospector. This could impose a minor limitation for the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

A footnote to the Florida Derby, Stormello hung on for 4th, and the Nick Zito trained Boogie Boggs ran 5th at odds of 33-to-1.

Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer
For Info click here

NEW HANDICAPPING BOOK: Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer By Jim Lambert. ON SALE NOW! A thoughtful yet simple presentation of horse race handicapping presented in a narrative mode. The latest hot button topics of 2007 are all hit on. From real life handicapping examples to Polytrack to the Maktoums of Dubai. If that's not enough a fictional story set in the world of horse racing might be to your liking.

Order e-Book click here. Info click here.

"Hard Spun Outstanding In Lane's End"
by Jim Lambert

Hard Spun Front And Center In Derby Picture

Trainer Larry Jones picked the right race to enter his stand-up 3-year-old Hard Spun, and that race was the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. The 1 1/8 mile Lane's End is now run on the synthetic Polytrack surface and Hard Spun ($7.20) found it much to his liking. Without being asked, Hard Spun took over the lead on the second turn and cruised to a 3 1/4 length victory over Sedgefield (twice stakes placed on the grass). Sedgefield has never raced on dirt, although the grandson of Mr. Prospector is bred to handle it. Sedgefield has not been mentioned as a Derby candidate but he is Triple Crown nominated. His connections (owner Silverton Hill LLC and trainer Darrin Miller) now have two stakes placings in graded affairs (including a 2nd in the Tropical Park Derby, a $100,000 grade 3 turf event at Calder) to consider.

Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths but then disappointed in the Southwest as the 1-to-2 favorite. Breaking from the outside post in the Southwest, Hard Spun raced wide the entire going and ended up fourth beaten three lengths by the talented Teuflesberg. Considering the level of competition in the Southwest, and the brilliant effort by Teuflesberg, Hard Spun remained firmly in the Kentucky Derby picture. And he remains front and center after his powerful performance in the Lane's End.

Here is a review of Hard Spun's pedigree:

Hard Spun is sired by the top stallion Danzig, who died in 2006 at the age of 29. Danzig sired 107 graded stakes winner in his lifetime. The sire of Danzig is Northern Dancer, the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Northern Dancer was small for a champion, standing at only 14 hands 2 1/2 inches, but he defeated his competitors with brilliant speed and a big heart. About 75% of modern thoroughbreds can be traced back to Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer, the sire of champions, died in 1990. Turkish Tryst is Hard Spun's dam. Turkish Tryst , a daughter of Turkoman, injects great stamina into the pedigree of Hard Spun.

A footnote to the Lane's End, the Nick Zito trained Forefathers was eased after never reaching contention.

"Street Sense Wins Extended Duel In Tampa Bay Derby"
by Jim Lambert

Street Sense And Any Given Saturday Put On A Show

This was the most exciting rendition of the Tampa Bay Derby ever run. In the 1 1/16 mile route for 3-year-olds, a stretch-long duel set up between Street Sense (last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile winner) and Any Given Saturday (one of several Todd Pletcher Derby hopefuls).

Tampa Bay Downs tends to favor speed, so when Any Given Saturday (sent off as 3-to-5 favorite) secured an excellent stalking position behind the early leaders (All I Can Get and Most Distinguished), he looked to be in great shape to take the race. But last year's champ had something to say about the outcome, as he skimmed the rail early (some 7 lengths back of the pace-setter). In a near blueprint of his Breeders Cup move (at Churchill Downs in November 2006) Street Sense hugged the rail all the way through the second turn and burst through an opening inside of the tiring All I Can Get. Leaving the 2nd turn it looked as if Street Sense would kick away, but it didn't happen because J. R. Velazquez had made sure Any Given Saturday had some reserves in his tank for the stretch run.

That's when the duel began, with Any Given Saturday and Street Sense heads apart for the entire battle, and in a head nod it was Street Sense ($4.40) by a nose (in track record time of 1:43.11 for 1 1/16 miles). For the record, I saw Velazquez get busy with the whip very late, while Calvin Borel looked to have instructions not to abuse Street Sense (with the whip). That said, Street Sense may have been a little better than the nose over Any Given Saturday, and that's scary. Also for the record, Street Sense closed out the final 2 1/2 panels at a remarkable rate of 11.9 seconds per furlong. That's a big move!

Carl Nafzger handles the talented Street Sense, a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby. Carl Nafzger is aiming for the Blue Grass Stakes (on the Keeneland Polytrack) as the final Kentucky Derby prep for Street Sense.

A footnote to the Tampa Bay Derby: Last year's winner and runner-up, Deputy Glitters and Bluegrass Cat, finished 8th and 2nd, respectively, in the Kentucky Derby.

"Curlin Opens Plenty Of Eyes In Grade 3 Rebel"
by Jim Lambert

Curlin Leaves Us Repeating: "Who Is This Colt?"

Today, nine 3-year-olds contested the 1 1/16 miles of the 2007 edition of the Rebel Stakes. It is wise to pay close attention to the Derby prospects that perform well at Oaklawn Park, perhaps the fairest (least biased) race course on the circuit. Smarty Jones won the Rebel Stakes (2004) and went on capture two of the three jewels of the Triple Crown. That said, Curlin must be the "real deal." Breaking without a lot of urgency, and racing in the second flight early on, Curlin didn't have the look of a horse that was about to sweep four-wide on the second turn and dismantle a talented field, winning going away by five lengths and change.

At the half, Curlin ($7.40) was 5th, some 5 1/2 lengths back of the leader Xchanger. By the finish, Curlin had posted 31.1 seconds for the final 2 1/2 furlongs. With a final time of 1:44.70, that works out to 12 and 2/5 seconds per furlong to close out the race, and that's remarkable for a colt who just broke his maiden February 3 (at Gulfstream Park in his career debut). Steve Asmussen trains this son of Smart Strike, although Helen Pits originally handled him, the switch a result of private sale by Midnight Cry Stable to Satish Sanan, Jess Jackson and George Bolton. Curlin defeated fellow Kentucky Derby prospects Officer Rocket (finished 2nd) and Teuflesberg (finished 3rd) in the Rebel today.

I wrote this a few weeks ago: Teuflesberg broke so alertly in the one mile Southwest Stakes I thought he just drank a half-gallon cup of coffee. Not only did he break well but he kept on running and he never stopped.

It was a different story today as Teuflesberg missed the break and had no answer for Curlin. Of course, nobody had an answer for Curlin, and Teuflesberg still managed a 3rd place finish, about 8 lengths back of the runaway winner. The Jamie Sanders charge now has 14 starts to his credit (with 4 wins) and we may have seen all the cards he's been holding. We'll keep tabs on him, though.

A footnote to the Rebel is the nice 2nd place finish of Officer Rocket (handled by Robert Holthus). Officer Rocket has 3 wins in 9 starts, and he is another who has probably shown us his best. Holthus is one of the best trainers around, so we'll keep an eye on Officer Rocket.

"Cowtown Cat Sizzles In Grade 3 Gotham"
by Jim Lambert

Cowtown Cat Runs Down Summer Doldrums

February 3, the same day that Nobiz Like Shobiz turned heads at Gulfstream Park by dominating the Holy Bull, Cowtown Cat finished a respectable 3rd in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint. The Swale proved a perfect tightener for today's Gotham Stakes as Cowtown Cat mowed down favored Summer Doldrums and long shot Wafi City inside the eighth pole of the inner dirt course at Aqueduct and went on to win ($6.70) the 1 and 1/16 mile event. Todd Pletcher handles Cowtown Cat and he also handles Circular Quay (winner of Louisiana Derby today) and he also trains Scat Daddy (winner Fountain of Youth last week). In the midst of this embarrassment of riches, Cowtown Cat enters the Derby picture with his Gotham victory.

Cowtown Cat shadowed the leaders only a length back amongst sluggish fractions (1:13 and 2/5 for six panels). Then the running heated up several degrees for the final 2 1/2 furlongs, which Cowtown Cat negotiated in 31.15 seconds (a little more than 12 and 2/5 per furlong to close out the race). The Aqueduct inner dirt course is altogether a different animal than the Churchill Downs surface that plays host to the Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, the connections of Cowtown Cat will be probably be eyeing the Derby.

Cowtown Cat is sired by Distorted Humor, a son of Forty Niner. The sire line of Distorted Humor is Raise A Native. Raise A Native influences Cowtown Cat on both family lines, and Raise A Native belongs to the "Brilliant" classification of the Chefs-de-Race. This is the "aptitude" category representing speed, as opposed to endurance. For instance, Mr. Prospector is a son of Raise A Native, an outstanding sprinter, and also is classified as a "Brilliant" Chef-de-Race. The 5 categories of Chefs-de-Race, covering the spectrum from speed to endurance, are "Brilliant", "Intermediate", "Classic", "Solid", and "Professional". The progeny of Cowtown Cat's sire, Distorted Humor, register a AWD (Average Wining Distance) of just under one mile, a typical distance.

A footnote to the Gotham is the lackluster performance of Summer Doldrums, pre-race favorite, and 3rd place finisher. No apparent excuses in sight.

"Circular Quay Turns It Up A Notch In Louisiana Derby"
by Jim Lambert

'Quay' Returns To The Scene Of The Accident

One month to the day, Circular Quay returned to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, where he narrowly averted disaster in the Risen Star Stakes on February 10. In the Risen Star, J. R. Velazquez navigated 'Quay' around a fallen jockey (James Graham) and miraculously finished 5th after coming to a near standstill.

J. R. Velazquez and Circular Quay found much better fortune in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, passing Ketchikan (trained by local stalwart Albert Stall, Jr.) for the lead in mid-stretch and finishing first (in hand). Circular Quay ($5.20) went off as favorite and rewarded his supporters with a thoroughly professional effort, saving ground early, and commencing his winning rally approaching the second turn. The 1 and 1/16 mile route of ground set up well for 'Quay' as Ketchikan and Liquidity contested the pace most of the way, with Ketchikan setting fractions of 1:10 and 4/5 (six furlongs) and 1:36 and 3/5 (one mile). Circular Quay closed out the final 2 1/2 furlongs in 30.7 seconds. That translates into an average of 12 and 3/5 seconds per furlong to close out the race. That's pretty fast considering 'Quay' was in hand at the finish, and considering he turned a 7 1/2 length deficit (at six panels) into a 2 1/4 length victory. Todd Pletcher should be thrilled with Circular Quay's performance in the Louisiana Derby.

Here is a look at Circular Quay's pedigree: Circular Quay is a son of Thunder Gulch, winner of 8 graded stakes including the 1995 Kentucky Derby. Gulch, the sire of Thunder Gulch, is a son of Mr. Prospector. Northern Dancer is present in both the sire and dam lines of Circular Quay. The combination of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer injects superior class and speed into Circular Quay's aptitude.

"Great Hunter Dominates Robert B. Lewis"
by Jim Lambert

Great Hunter Throws Hat In The Ring

Doug O'Neil was struck with bad luck in 2006 when Stevie Wonderboy, winner of the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile, missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury. Now, one year later, O'Neil has a very serious Derby contender in Great Hunter. In the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, Great Hunter ($3.80) swooped past the field in early stretch and held Sam P safe. A versatile colt, Great Hunter now has 3 victories in 8 starts, including a graded stakes win on polytrack and now one on dirt. Great Hunter's rivals had combined for only 11 wins in 45 starts against less than stellar competition. Given that Great Hunter badly outclassed his rivals in the Robert Lewis, he still looked magnificent and registered a respectable time of 149.11 in the 1 and 1/8 mile event.

Great Hunter is sired by Aptitude, a son of A P Indy. The first year at stud for Aptitude was 2002 and Steppenwolfer, last year's Derby 3rd place finisher, is a chief earner to-date along with Great Hunter. A grandson of A P Indy, Great Hunter is bred on the sire line for the classics. Zenith, the dam of Great Hunter, injects turf aptitude into his pedigree and is probably one the reasons Great Hunter runs so well on polytrack as well as dirt. Great Hunter is one of the more intriguing Derby candidates for 2007.

"Scat Daddy By A Nose (Hair) In Fountain Of Youth"
by Jim Lambert

Scat Daddy Firmly Back In Derby Picture

Stormello broke alertly and secured the rail for the two-turn 1 1/8 mile route. Then he set every single fraction (except the last) and went on to run the race of his life . . . Stormello set fractions of 46.06, 1:09.89, 1:35.36, and Scat Daddy stuck his nose down in front of Stormello's nose for the final fraction of 1:49.11 (1:49 and 1/2 of a fifth). Frankly, I thought it was a dead heat in one of the most exciting races of the Triple Crown preps.

Scat Daddy was caught 4-wide on the far turn and in fifth place with a furlong to go, but under a furious ride from J. R. Velazquez Scat Daddy closed quickly in deep stretch to win at the wire (Scat Daddy paid $13.80 to win). Stormello left his heart on the Gulfstream race course but settled for second place (at odds of 6-to-1). Nobiz Like Shobiz was sent off as the 3-to-5 public choice, but used tremendous energy early to secure position on the 1st turn and then he had to deal with Stormello's furious pace-setting effort. The race took a toll on 'Shobiz' and a third place finish was all he could manage.

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The Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth featured no less than three serious Derby prospects: Nobiz Like Shobiz (Barclay Tagg), Scat Daddy (Todd Pletcher), and Drums Of Thunder (William Kaplan). Scat Daddy is a half-brother to the Southwest Stakes winner Teuflesberg by virtue of a common sire, Johannesburg. Johannesburg won the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile, but was mainly a European grass sprinter. Nearly one-third of of the pedigree of Scat Daddy can be traced back to a single horse, the brilliant Mr. Prospector. This could impose a minor limitation for the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, but you wouldn't know it from Scat Daddy's performance in the Fountain Of Youth.

Nobiz Like Shobiz Eats Humble Pie As Beaten Favorite

Nobiz Like Shobiz, a son of Albert The Great, came into the race off his dominating win in the Holy Bull over the same surface. The presence of Stormello essentially did in the chances for the pre-race favorite. 'Shobiz' is a superior talent, but chasing a 109.89 six panel fraction and a brisk 1:35.36 one mile call, and then being forced to deal with the hard charging Scat Daddy proved too much for 'Shobiz' to handle. The connections (Barclay Tagg trains) have to consider this race a "character builder" because 'Shobiz' was still running strong at the end, and he can only learn from a tough experience like this. So don't forget about Nobiz Like Shobiz for the first Saturday in May. He could still come up roses.

A footnote to the Fountain Of Youth is the disappointing 6th place finish of Drums Of Thunder. He was never in contention, and his stock plummets from an all-time high after his 2nd place finish to 'Shobiz' in the Holy Bull.

"Teuflesberg Wires Southwest While Hard Spun Spins Wheels"
by Jim Lambert

Teuflesberg Turns Tables On Hard Spun

Teuflesberg broke so alertly in the one mile Southwest Stakes I thought he just drank a half-gallon cup of coffee. Not only did he break well but he kept on running and he never stopped. It's not easy to wire a classy stakes field at Oaklawn Park, one of the fairest (unbiased) race courses on the circuit. Handler Jamie Sanders took off the blinkers for the first time in Teuflesberg's career, which now includes 4 wins in 13 starts, and it paid immediate dividends. Five weeks ago in the Grade 3 LeComte at the Fair Grounds, also run at one mile, Teuflesberg bobbled at the break and ended up third to winner Hard Spun. Teuflesberg turned the tables today, paying $48.80 to win while Hard Spun finished fourth as the 1-to-2 heavy favorite. Teuflesberg recorded a winning time of 138 and 1/5 for the two-turn mile, posting a nifty 13 and 1/5 seconds for the final eighth. Officer Rocket closed ground to finish second at 12-to-1 odds.

Teuflesberg is sired by Johannesburg, surprise winner of the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Johannesburg was a European grass sprinter, but was sired by the American champion Hennessy. St. Michele, Teuflesberg's dam, is a daughter of the deceased Devil's Bag, a great success as a juvenile sire, but not as a Triple Crown sire.

Hard Spun Disappointing Fourth In Southwest

Hard Spun won his first four races by a combined 28 lengths but it all came to a grinding halt in the Southwest as Teuflesberg humbled the 1-to-2 favorite. Breaking from the outside (9th) post, Hard Spun raced wide the entire going and ended up fourth beaten three lengths by the winner. Considering the level of competition in the Southwest, and the brilliant effort by Teuflesberg, I wouldn't count Hard Spun out of Kentucky Derby contention so early.

How about breeding? Hard Spun is sired by the top stallion Danzig, who died in 2006 at the age of 29. Danzig sired 107 graded stakes winner in his lifetime. The sire of Danzig is Northern Dancer, the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Northern Dancer was small for a champion, standing at only 14 hands 2 1/2 inches, but he defeated his competitors with brilliant speed and a big heart. About 75% of modern thoroughbreds can be traced back to Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer, the sire of champions, died in 1990. Turkish Tryst is Hard Spun's dam. Turkish Tryst , a daughter of Turkoman, injects great stamina into the pedigree of Hard Spun.

"Any Given Saturday Victorious In Sam F. Davis"
by Jim Lambert

'Given Saturday' Captures Sam F. Davis For Pletcher

Any Given Saturday is one of Todd Pletcher's Derby hopefuls for 2007. Today, Any Given Saturday won the 2007 edition of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Last year Pletcher won the same race with Bluegrass Cat, eventual runner-up to Barbaro in the 2006 Kentucky Derby. In 2006, Bluegrass Cat registered a wining time of 144 and 1/5 in the Sam F. Davis. Today (Februrary 17) Any Given Saturday posted a winning time of 144 and 1/5. How's that for consistency for handler Todd Pletcher.

I watched the (ungraded) Sam F. Davis and although Any Given Saturday ran a professional race, it could have been better. 'Given Saturday' tracked the early leader All I Can Get, spanned 3-wide on the final turn to begin his winning move, and wore down All I Can Get in the stretch to win by a comfortable 2 3/4 lengths. The problem is that All I Can Get is a Michigan-bred with no better than a 76 Beyer in six races coming into the Sam F. Davis. The betting public sent All I Can Get off at 33-to-1 odds, while the winner Any Given Saturday was bet down to 1-to-5.

For 'Given Saturday' to walk in the footsteps of Bluegrass Cat, he will have to step his game up several levels. But Bluegrass Cat was a pretty special colt last year. The jury is still out on Any Given Saturday.

What about breeding? Any Given Saturday is a son of Distorted Humor, a superior handicap horse from 1996 to 1998. Distorted Humor is a son of Forty Niner, another fine handicap horse. Forty Niner won the 1988 Travers, but he may best be remembered as the runner-up to the speedy filly Winning Colors in the Kentucky Derby the same year. The dam of Any Given Saturday is Weekend In Indy, a daughter of A.P. Indy and a direct descendent of the talented Weekend Surprise. No problems in the breeding barn for Any Given Saturday.

"Circular Quay Victim Of Traffic Jam"
by Jim Lambert

'Quay' Avoids Tragedy In Risen Star

Circular Quay figured to come from the back today in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. But he didn't figure on having to dodge a jockey (James Graham) who couldn't stay on his horse. Graham, the rider of long shot Slew's Tizzy, steered his mount into the heels of another long shot (Weather Warning). The horses clipped heels and Graham fell off his mount into the path of Circular Quay. J. R. Velazquez did what he had to do, avoiding the vulnerable Graham (who was not injured) and it cost Circular Quay the race.

While Circular Quay regrouped to finish fifth, amazing under the circumstances, west coast invader Notional (trained by Doug O'Neil) rallied for the win and paid $7.80. Notional is not a serious Kentucky Derby threat, so we won't waste any print on him, but what about Circular Quay?

For those of you who were paying attention last November in the Breeders Cup, there was a killer rail bias at work at Churchill Downs (from a hard rail dried out from the previous day's rain) resulting in four out of five winners (on the dirt course) from post position one. One of those winners, Dreaming Of Anna, took the Juvenile Fillies on Breeders Cup day by a wide margin. Today, Dreaming Of Anna finished a well beaten third (as 2:5 favorite) in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The winner of the Old Hat was Dream Rush, the second choice (paid $6.00 to win). Dreaming Of Anna was a mere mortal without the Breeders Cup 2006 rail bias. Last November Circular Quay fought the rail bias to finish second to Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense. Today, he was going to inhale the Risen Stakes field in the lane, but he never got the chance. Circular Quay is still live for the Derby.

What about breeding? Circular Quay is a son of Thunder Gulch, winner of 8 graded stakes including the 1995 Kentucky Derby. Gulch, the sire of Thunder Gulch, is a son of Mr. Prospector. Northern Dancer is present in both the sire and dam lines of Circular Quay. The combination of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer injects superior class and speed into Circular Quay's aptitude. Keep your eye on 'Quay' next time out.

"Shobiz Lays Down The Gauntlet"
by Jim Lambert

'Shobiz' Dominant In Holy Bull

We're still three months away from May, but Nobiz Like Shobiz looks like a serious Derby contender for 2007 already. Saturday, February 3, 'Shobiz' defeated Drums Of Thunder by 1 ½ lengths in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Barclay Tagg handles Nobiz Like Shobiz. The highly regarded Scat Daddy finished third, 2 lengths back of the winner.

The final time of 1:35.47 for the one-turn mile was impressive considering that 'Shobiz' essentially took responsibility to set the pace for the entire running of the Holy Bull. He ran the final quarter in 24.68 (24 and 3 for you purists). Scat Daddy worked hard in the role of the stalker but came up empty in deep stretch. Drums Of Thunder (trained by William Kaplan) actually gained about half-a-length in the final quarter but was clearly beaten.

'Shobiz' is a big time Derby contender, but he had to really work in the final yards to secure the Holy Bull. Do you remember last year's Holy Bull winner? His name was Barbaro. Is 'Shobiz' bred to handle the Derby mile and a quarter distance. The answer is yes, probably. His sire is Albert The Great, a winner of five graded events in 2001-2002. Albert The Great's sire, Go For Gin, is a Kentucky Derby winner (1994). The broodmare sire of 'Shobiz' is Storm Cat, a proven classic sire. As of December 2006, he has sired 93 winners of group or graded stakes races.

The tricky thing about breeding is that good breeding does not always translate into good performance. In the case of 'Shobiz' it looks like he's got the breeding and he's got the ability. He's the real thing, but it's only February.

"The Kentucky Derby Jinx"
by Jim Lambert

[An Excerpt From HORSING AROUND: A GUIDE FOR THE EVERYDAY HORSEPLAYER Released April 2007]

Is The Kentucky Derby Jinx Real?

No Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Not one. This is known as the Kentucky Derby jinx. Only two Breeders Cup Juvenile winners have even managed to finish in the money in a Kentucky Derby. That feat was first accomplished by Chief's Crown, who won the inaugural Breeders Cup Juvenile at Hollywood Park in 1984, and then went on to finish third in the 1985 Kentucky Derby. And ten years later Timber Country won the 1994 Juvenile at Churchill Downs, and finished third the following year in the Kentucky Derby. Does this mean there is no way on earth that a Juvenile Champion will win the Kentucky Derby? No, it simply means the odds are stacked against him. The issue was not even on the table in 2006 due to the unfortunate injury to 2005 Juvenile champion Stevie Wonderboy. Carl Nafzger handles the talented Street Sense, runaway winner of the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Street Sense is a son of one-time Derby hopeful and Godolphin property Street Cry. In 2001, Street Cry sustained an ankle injury and was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby. Carl Nafzger is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with Street Sense in 2007, and it will be an uphill battle for Street Sense to defeat the jinx.

Before Breeders Cup appeared on the scene, some Juvenile champions did go on to win the Kentucky Derby. In fact, three in a row did it from 1977 to 1979. The Kentucky Derby winners in those years were Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid, and each was a 2-year-old champion the prior year. Times have changed dramatically, though. The prize money has grown, causing the field sizes to expand to a maximum of twenty. The ensuing traffic jams that these large fields spawn make a clean trip in the Derby a near impossibility. Also, breeding for speed has become incredibly selective, such that durability and soundness have been left out in the cold. So how does juvenile success really relate to Kentucky Derby performance?

For more clues we look to the twenty-three year history of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and to the twenty-two Kentucky Derbies that have thus far followed. Let's go back in the time capsule to that first Breeders Cup Juvenile in 1984 at Hollywood Park in California. Chief's Crown wasn't the only colt that embarked on the long journey from California to Churchill Downs in Kentucky in the spring of 1985. A talented colt by the name of Spend A Buck also took that journey. Do you remember Spend A Buck, the winner of the 1985 Kentucky Derby? That is the same Spend A Buck that finished third in the 1984 Breeders Cup Juvenile, 1 ½ lengths behind the winner Chief's Crown. So there is more than meets the eye than a blanket condemnation of all Breeders Juvenile winners.

The History Of The Breeders Cup Juvenile And the Kentucky Derby

The true story is more complicated. It is an oversight to track only the Breeders Cup Juvenile winners. That is far too simplistic an approach. We should at least follow the fortunes of all the juveniles that managed to finish in the money in the Juvenile.

The Breeders Cup is now twenty-three years old. It began in 1984, with the most recent rendition last year in 2006. The Juvenile has been run in each of those twenty-three years, and to date twenty-two Kentucky Derby runnings have followed the next year.

Here is a list of all top three Breeders Cup Juvenile finishers that also managed a top three finish in the Kentucky Derby the following year.

Year of Breeders Cup Juvenile	Name of Horse	Breeders Cup Juvenile Finish	Kentucky Derby Finish The Next Year
1984	Chief's Crown	Win	Show
1984	Spend A Buck	Show	Win
1986	Alysheba	Show	Win
1988	Easy Goer	Place	Place
1993	Blumin Affair	Place	Show
1994	Timber Country	Win	Show
1994	Tejano Run	Show	Place
1998	Cat Thief	Show	Show
2004	Afleet Alex	Place	Show

Suddenly a pattern begins to emerge. Nine "in the money" finishers in the Juvenile were also "in the money" finishers in the following year's Kentucky Derby. It doesn't exactly break the jinx, but this list should give hope to future Breeders Cup Juvenile winners. Of course it makes sense that the best of the two year-old crop will compete well in the three year-old campaign.

Is there a pattern beneath the surface that provides further clues? Perhaps certain race courses favor Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Let's take an in depth look.

Race Course	Hosted Breeders Cup	Derby Winners Produced	Derby In the Money Finishers Produced
Arlington Park	1	0	0
Aqueduct	1	0	0
Belmont Park	4	0	1
Churchill Downs	6	0	4
Gulfstream Park	3	1	2
Hollywood Park	3	1	3
Lone Star Park	1	0	1
Santa Anita Park	3	1	3
Woodbine	1	0	0

Churchill Downs has hosted six Breeders Cups, more than any other track, and it has produced no Kentucky Derby winners (the jury is still out for 2007). Churchill Downs has, however, produced four in the money finishers. This stands to reason because Churchill Downs is the host for the Kentucky Derby. Belmont Park, on the other hand, has hosted four Breeders Cups and has produced no Derby winners and only one in the money finisher. The two California tracks, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita Park, have hosted a combined six Breeders Cups and produced two Derby winners and six in the money finishers. Lone Star Park, Woodbine (Canada), Aqueduct, Arlington Park and Gulfstream Park have hosted a combined seven Breeders Cups, producing one Kentucky Derby winner and three in the money finishers.

Woodbine hosted the 1996 Breeders Cup and not one of the Juvenile participants made the trip to Kentucky for the Derby. Two participants (Brother Derek and Private Vow) in the 2005 Breeders Cup, held at Belmont Park, made the trip to Kentucky in 2006. However, none of the top three 2005 Juvenile finishers, Stevie Wonderboy, Henny Hughes, or First Samurai, ran in the 2006 Derby. Street Sense hopes to put a stop to that trend by starting in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The only colt that dramatically improved his performance from the Juvenile to the Derby was Sea Hero, who languished in seventh place for the Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992, and then went on to take the 1993 Kentucky Derby, skimming the rail. Usually it is the other way around. There have been many Juvenile winners whose Derby performances can best be described as train wrecks. In the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Capote finished 16th. In the 1992 Derby, Juvenile winner Arazi finished 8th. In the 1998 Derby, Favorite Trick had a similar fate, finishing 8th. The next year, 1999, Answer Lively finished 10th in the Derby, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous year. The carnage continued in the 2000 Derby, with Juvenile winner Anees running 13th. More recently, in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile winner Wilko finished an uninspiring 6th. 2005 Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy did not run in the 2006 Derby due to injury.

The only filly to win the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era is Winning Colors in 1988, and as a filly Winning Colors did not race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and also did not race in the 1987 Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly.

Statistics On Horses That Started In Both A Breeders Cup Juvenile And A Kentucky Derby

There are 55 colts which started both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby. Thirty of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 25 finished out of the money in the Juvenile. Of the 55 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was eighth. Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so a fifth place Juvenile finish is probably not so different than an eighth place Derby finish. Of the 30 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance. On the surface, this seems to be a surprising result. Why did the horses that hit the board in the Juvenile finish seventh, on average, in the Kentucky Derby?

Is there a lesson here? I believe there is, and it centers around the physical development of the modern thoroughbred. From the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing. A colt changes during this period from a "gangly teenager" to a "mature adult." In the midst of these changes, the overall athletic ability of a horse can improve dramatically. With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast and powerful three year-olds. And this season of change that takes place between Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby permanently alters the landscape for Kentucky Derby contenders.

Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues?

The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore. As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore. In the twenty-three Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows. His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor. To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas. Who has the three? Bob Baffert. Several trainers own two in the money finishes.

Two questions rise to mind. How did Lukas do it? And does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success? The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another. Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart. Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record for trainers in 2006, incredibly breaking his own record established only one year earlier. Kiaran McLaughlin has achieved greatness in his own right, having trained 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2006 Breeders Cup Classic winner Invasor for Sheik Hamdan's Shadwell Stable.

What about the second question, do D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds? The answer is yes, and the answer is no. The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era. But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas is winning the Kentucky Derby with are not the same horses Lukas is winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with. The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996). Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999). It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses.

I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas. No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas. It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races. The playing field has become level in recent years. With Michael Matz, trainer of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, there have been eight different winning trainers in the last eight Derbies . In the last eleven runnings of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, there have been no less than eleven different winning trainers. Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, also trained 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner Unbridled.

Which Horse Will Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby?

The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made. Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections. Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce. Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge. This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run. His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all. Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life. This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period. Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns.

The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates. A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns. The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges. Even when the campaign of a Derby hopeful is in full bloom, a sudden injury can derail Derby plans for even a top prospect. Such was the case for the connections of Stevie Wonderboy in 2006.

There are many potential challengers to capture the roses on the first Saturday in May, and the list will only get longer.

Here is a list of early Derby hopefuls for 2007.

2007 DERBY CONTENDER	TRAINER
Nobiz Like Shobiz	Barclay Tagg
Street Sense	Carl Nafzger
Circular Quay	Todd Pletcher
Scat Daddy	Todd Pletcher
Great Hunter	Doug O'Neil
E Z Warrior	Bob Baffert
C P West	Nick Zito
Teuflesberg	Jamie Sanders
U D Ghetto	Anthony Reinstedlar
Hard Spun	Larry Jones

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12th Race 132nd Preakness (Grade 1)

12th Race
132nd Preakness (Grade 1)