Updated May 7
The Kentucky Derby Watch 2007
From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
 
  
Jim Lambert
Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com  

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ARTICLES

The Kentucky Derby Jinx [An Excerpt From HORSING AROUND:  A GUIDE FOR THE EVERYDAY HORSEPLAYER  Released 2007]
Slew's Tizzy Earns Free Ticket to Derby    April 21
Dominican Gets The Nod On Street Sense In Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes    April 14
Business As Usual For Curlin In Grade 2 Arkansas Derby  April 14
Huge Upset By Tiago In Santa Anita Derby    April 7
Nobiz Like Shobiz Impresses In Grade 1 Wood Memorial    April 7
Grade 1 Florida Derby Belongs to Scat Daddy    March 31
Hard Spun Outstanding In Lane's End    March 24
Street Sense Wins Extended Duel In Tampa Bay Derby   March 17
Curlin Opens Plenty Of Eyes In Grade 3 Rebel March 17
Cowtown Cat Sizzles In Grade 3 Gotham March 10

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Circular Quay Turns It Up A Notch In Louisiana Derby March 10
Great Hunter Dominates Robert B. Lewis March 3
Scat Daddy By A Nose (Hair) In Fountain Of Youth March 3
Teuflesberg Wires Southwest While Hard Spun Spins Wheels February 19
Any Given Saturday Victorious In Sam F. Davis February 17
Circular Quay Victim Of Traffic Jam February 10
Shobiz Lays Down The Gauntlet February 3

 

Kentucky Derby 2007
Rankings By Graded Stakes Earnings 

RANKING

HORSE

1

STREET SENSE

2

SCAT DADDY

3

CIRCULAR QUAY

4

CURLIN

5

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ

6

GREAT HUNTER

7

STORMELLO

8

DOMINICAN

9

TIAGO

10

COWTOWN CAT

11

HARD SPUN

12

STORM IN MAY
13

ZANJERO

14

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY

15

LIQUIDITY

16

SAM P

17

SEDGEFIELD

18

BWANA BULL

19

TEUFLESBERG

20

IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY

The above Earnings Rankings include only those horses that are intending on running in the Kentucky Derby, May 5, 2007.
Kentucky Derby 2007
Post Positions [And Program Number]
 

PGM NO.

HORSE

1

SEDGEFIELD

2

CURLIN

3

ZANJERO

4

STORM IN MAY

5

IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY

6

COWTOWN CAT

7

STREET SENSE

8

HARD SPUN

9

LIQUIDITY

10

TEUFLESBERG

11

BWANA BULL

12

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
13

SAM P.

14

SCAT DADDY

15

TIAGO

16

CIRCULAR QUAY

17

STORMELLO

18

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY

19

DOMINICAN

20

GREAT HUNTER

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'Tizzy' Stuns Crowd In Lexington Stakes
A week after Dominican paid $18.00 to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, long shot Slew's Tizzy ($83.00) claimed victory in the Lexington Stakes, the final graded Derby prep.  The irony of the success of Keeneland's new Polytrack racing surface (installed in time for the 2007 meet) is that the results of the Keeneland Derby preps should have little or no impact on the results of the Kentucky Derby except possibly influencing who gets in.  Why, do you ask?  Because Polytrack performance generally does not translate into dirt performance.  Remember, the Kentucky Derby is still run on dirt.  The Lexington Stakes is contested at 1 1/16 miles on the artificial surface, and Slew's Tizzy negotiated the distance in 1:43.20. 

Slew's Tizzy, until today, was best known for his spill in the Risen Star Stakes that nearly cost Derby contender Circular Quay his chance for glory.  As it turned out Circular Quay evaded injury thanks to good fortune and the quick reactions of rider J. R. Velazquez.  In the Lexington, Robbie Albarado (James Graham rode Slew's Tizzy in the Risen Star) placed 'Tizzy' on or near the lead going into the 1st turn and he never relinquished the lead although headed briefly by Soaring By.  Leading up to the Lexington, Slew's Tizzy had only one victory in five starts, but it was on Keeneland's Polytrack.  By virtue of the $195,000 payday, Slew's Tizzy is assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby if his connections want it. 

On a dirt surface Slew's Tizzy is 0 for 3 and his best performance is a 7th place finish in the Louisiana Derby, about 11 1/2 lengths shy of the winner Circular Quay.  On the positive side 'Tizzy' has only six lifetime starts, so maybe he is peaking at the right time.  But maybe not.  That's the problem with Polytrack preps, they don't offer much in the way of useful information.  An aside, the fleet of foot Xchanger won the un-graded Tesio Stakes at Pimlico today by 8 lengths, and Xchanger would have a better chance than Slew's Tizzy to do well in the Kentucky Derby.

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A footnote to the Lexington, lukewarm favorite Belgravia (9-to-5 odds) finished last in his 2007 debut and set up some astronomical payoffs.  Slew's Tizzy won at odds of 40-to-1 and Starbase finished second at odds of 36-to-1, delivering a $1,002.20 exacta payoff for $2  Forty Grams finished third at odds of 5-to-1 resulting in a huge $14,726.20 trifecta payout for a $2 ticket (that's $7,363.10 for a dollar before the IRS man finds you).

"Dominican Gets The Nod On Street Sense In Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes"
 by Jim Lambert

Rushaway Winner Dominican Wins Again On Polytrack
The management at Keeneland (in Lexington, Kentucky) must be patting each other on the back.  Their controversial move to Polytrack last year is paying big dividends in 2007.  The new artificial surface is keeping horses safer (injuries are down from pre-Polytrack days) and providing for much closer, exciting races on the whole.  That makes both the horsemen and the horseplayers happy, and that's the name of the game.  And to make things better, two of the marquis Kentucky Derby prospects, Street Sense and Great Hunter, squared off in the Toyota Blue Grass Saturday.

Street Sense comes in off his thrilling victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Great Hunter comes in off his relatively easy win in the Robert B. Lewis.  Teuflesberg, Zanjero, and Dominican head up the main competition to the top two choices. 

Here is the synopsis I wrote for my HRH Racing Digest readers last night:

The grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass is a mile and one-eighth on the All Weather Track. A steady rain (up to one inch) is forecast for Saturday, but if the track drains the way Polytrack is advertised we should have a fair race. Only Love Dubai (#3) and Time Squared (#5) are not stakes placed, so that leaves a balance of five other horses. The System Toteboard isolates #2 (Dominican), #6 (Teuflesberg), #7 (Great Hunter) and #1 (Zanjero) as the key value horses, and leaves out the probable post-time favorite Street Sense (#4). That does not mean we ignore Street Sense, but it means we look to the others for value, particularly Great Hunter, who has a solid aptitude for the Polytrack surface and class to spare.

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What happened in the Blue Grass, besides the four horse blanket finish of Dominican, Street Sense, Zanjero, and Teuflesberg?  Teuflesberg was able to set a pedestrian pace of 26.12 for the quarter, 51.46 for the half, and 1:16.65 for three quarters, and that's slow even for a Polytrack race, where riders have learned to restrain their mounts early, much like they do in a grass race.  Great Hunter took up the chase but could not sustain his bid, bothered by a tiring Teuflesberg in deep stretch, and failed to hit the board, finishing 5th, but was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the winner Dominican.  Street Sense, the even money favorite, timed his move well but lost the nod to Dominican ($18.00), who got an outside trip and rushed to the leaders at the wire for his winning bid. 

Dominican defeated a lesser group in the Rushaway at Turfway Park in March, run also on Polytrack, and that is the key for Dominican.  Unfortunately for Dominican, the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt (for now).  Dominican's winning time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Blue Grass was 1:51.33. 

What does all this mean for the Kentucky Derby?  Absolutely nothing.  Performance on Polytrack does not translate into performance on dirt.  If you really want to know how to handicap Polytrack, you need to check out my new book, and you'll get a lot more than that (127 pages worth of handicapping and good old fashion entertainment).  Just click below to check it out.

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A footnote to the Blue Grass, Dominican is now 3 for 3 on Polytrack, and he is 0 for 4 on dirt.  He is not a Derby threat.  

Curlin Following Hoof-Prints Of Smarty Jones
This morning, April 14, Saturday, I jotted down a few notes in preparation for the $1million Arkansas Derby.  The Arkansas Derby is run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Oaklawn Park.  Let's take a peek at my pre-race notes:

All eyes will be on Curlin, impressive winner of the Rebel 4 weeks ago in just his 2nd lifetime start (Smarty Jones won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby in 2004 on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby).  In the Rebel Stakes, Curlin closed out the final three eighths averaging 12 and 2/5 seconds per furlong, very, very impressive.  He beat Officer Rocket, who is back again today, but Officer Rocket could not get close to Curlin with his best, so why should that change today?  Steve Asmussen handles Curlin and Bob Holthus trains Officer Rocket, so expect both colts to be very well prepared today.  Curlin is capable of early pace, but will probably let Deadly Dealer (Todd Pletcher), Flying First Class (D Wayne Lukas), and Storm In May (William Kaplan) set the early fractions.  Deadly Dealer manhandled a group of first level allowance foes in early March, but gets his first real test today.  Curlin will be able to stalk the pace setters and should be very tough in the stretch, but let's see just how good he really is.  Officer Rocket is not a front line Derby threat, so if Curlin cannot put "Rocket" away, that is a sign of weakness.  Flying First Class and Storm In May could hold on until mid stretch, and this will be another test for Curlin.  Also, Going Ballistic and Delightful Kiss are proven closers, and may provide a late test for Curlin, although neither is in the same class.  I was looking forward to watching For You Reppo (Helen Pitts) run today, after his respectable 4th in the Lane's End, but he is a race day scratch.  Curlin is one of my top five Derby contenders coming in to the Arkansas Derby.    

How did the race go?  Curlin ($3.60) stalked the early pace setter Deadly Dealer, as anticipated, and absolutely murdered the field in the Oaklawn stretch, winning by daylight times two.  The final time was 1:50.09, very fast considering Curlin has only three lifetime starts, for goodness sakes, and considering he won by a country mile.  Curlin has answered all questions, and he is headed to the Triple Crown, and he will be one of the top two to three favorites, and deservedly so.   As for the others, Storm In May ran 2nd, and Deadly Dealer held on for 3rd, but they were so far back as to be considered personae not gratae.