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132nd Preakness
May
19
See How
We Did In
ARTICLES
Kentucky
Derby
2007
The above Earnings Rankings include only those horses that are intending on running in the Kentucky Derby, May 5, 2007. Kentucky Derby 2007 Post Positions [And Program Number]
The Preakness 2007 Probables
Preakness Stakes 2007 Post Positions
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Rushaway Winner Dominican
Wins Again On Polytrack Street Sense comes in off his thrilling victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Great Hunter comes in off his relatively easy win in the Robert B. Lewis. Teuflesberg, Zanjero, and Dominican head up the main competition to the top two choices.
Here is the synopsis I
wrote for my HRH Racing Digest readers last night:
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be ready for the value plays.
What happened in the
Blue Grass, besides the four horse blanket finish of
Dominican, Street Sense, Zanjero, and Teuflesberg?
Teuflesberg was able to set a pedestrian pace of 26.12
for the quarter, 51.46 for the half, and 1:16.65 for three
quarters, and that's slow even for a Polytrack race, where
riders have learned to restrain their mounts early, much
like they do in a grass race. Great Hunter took up
the chase but could not sustain his bid, bothered by a
tiring
Teuflesberg in deep
stretch, and failed to hit the board, finishing 5th, but
was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the winner Dominican.
Street Sense, the even money favorite, timed his move
well but lost the nod to Dominican ($18.00), who got an
outside trip and rushed to the leaders at the wire for
his winning bid.
A
Racing
eBook A footnote to the Blue Grass, Dominican is now 3 for 3 on Polytrack, and he is 0 for 4 on dirt. He is not a Derby threat.
Curlin Following
Hoof-Prints Of Smarty Jones How did the race go? Curlin ($3.60) stalked the early pace setter Deadly Dealer, as anticipated, and absolutely murdered the field in the Oaklawn stretch, winning by daylight times two. The final time was 1:50.09, very fast considering Curlin has only three lifetime starts, for goodness sakes, and considering he won by a country mile. Curlin has answered all questions, and he is headed to the Triple Crown, and he will be one of the top two to three favorites, and deservedly so. As for the others, Storm In May ran 2nd, and Deadly Dealer held on for 3rd, but they were so far back as to be considered personae not gratae. What about Curlin's pedigree? Curlin is a son of Smart Strike, who is a son of Mr. Prospector, undeniably the best Triple Crown sire in recent times. His grandson Unbridled won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. Mr. Prospector's great-grandsons Real Quiet (1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) and Grindstone (1996 Kentucky Derby) won Triple Crown events. His son Conquistador Cielo won the 1982 A footnote to the Arkansas Derby, Steve Asmussen set the single day training mark in the history of Oaklawn Park with 5 wins, including 3 stakes, capping it off with Curlin's victory in the Arkansas Derby. Not a bad day, all in all.
"Huge
Upset By Tiago In Santa Anita Derby"
"Nobiz
Like Shobiz Impresses In Grade 1 Wood Memorial"
'Shobiz' Holds Off
Determined Sightseeing For The Win
Nobiz Like Shobiz
($3.40) registered
a winning time of 1:49.46 for the 1 1/8 miles of the
Wood, and closed out the final three furlongs in 38.56 seconds
(an average of 12 and 4/5 seconds per furlong).
Taking a look at the pedigree of Nobiz Like Shobiz, 'Shobiz' is sired by Albert The Great, a winner of five graded events in 2001-2002. Albert The Great's sire, Go For Gin, is a Kentucky Derby winner (1994). The broodmare sire of 'Shobiz' is Storm Cat, a proven classic sire. As of December 2006, he has sired 93 winners of group or graded stakes races. A footnote to the Wood Memorial, Any Given Saturday ran 3rd, about 4 lengths behind the winner. Horsing Around: A Guide For The Everyday Horseplayer For Info click here
"Grade
1 Florida Derby Belongs to Scat Daddy"
"Hard Spun Outstanding In Lane's End"
"Street
Sense Wins Extended Duel In Tampa Bay Derby"
"Curlin Opens Plenty Of Eyes In Grade 3 Rebel"
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"Cowtown Cat Sizzles In Grade 3 Gotham"
"Circular Quay Turns It Up
A Notch In Louisiana
Derby" "Great Hunter Dominates Robert B. Lewis" by Jim Lambert
Great Hunter Throws Hat In
The Ring "Scat Daddy By A Nose (Hair) In Fountain Of Youth" by Jim Lambert
Scat Daddy Firmly Back In
Derby Picture
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The Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth featured no less than three
serious Derby prospects: Nobiz Like Shobiz (Barclay
Tagg), Scat Daddy (Todd Pletcher), and Drums Of Thunder
(William Kaplan). Scat Daddy is a half-brother to
the Southwest Stakes winner Teuflesberg by virtue of a
common sire,
Johannesburg.
Johannesburg won the 2001 Breeders Cup Juvenile, but was
mainly a European grass sprinter. Nearly one-third
of of the pedigree of Scat Daddy can be traced back to a
single horse, the brilliant Mr. Prospector. This could
impose a minor limitation for the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4
miles, but you wouldn't know it from Scat Daddy's performance in
the Fountain Of Youth. A footnote to the Fountain Of Youth is the disappointing 6th place finish of Drums Of Thunder. He was never in contention, and his stock plummets from an all-time high after his 2nd place finish to 'Shobiz' in the Holy Bull. "Teuflesberg Wires Southwest While Hard Spun Spins Wheels" by Jim Lambert
Teuflesberg Turns Tables
On Hard Spun
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How about breeding? Hard Spun is sired by the top
stallion Danzig, who died in 2006 at the age of 29.
Danzig sired 107 graded stakes winner in his lifetime.
The sire of Danzig is Northern Dancer, the 1964 Kentucky
Derby and Preakness winner. Northern Dancer was
small for a champion, standing at only 14 hands 2 1/2
inches, but he defeated his competitors with brilliant
speed and a big heart. About 75% of modern
thoroughbreds can be traced back to Northern Dancer.
Northern Dancer, the sire of champions, died in 1990.
Turkish Tryst is Hard Spun's dam.
Turkish Tryst ,
a daughter of Turkoman, injects great stamina into the
pedigree of Hard Spun. "Any Given Saturday Victorious In Sam F. Davis" by Jim Lambert
'Given Saturday' Captures
Sam F. Davis For Pletcher I watched the (ungraded) Sam F. Davis and although Any Given Saturday ran a professional race, it could have been better. 'Given Saturday' tracked the early leader All I Can Get, spanned 3-wide on the final turn to begin his winning move, and wore down All I Can Get in the stretch to win by a comfortable 2 3/4 lengths. The problem is that All I Can Get is a Michigan-bred with no better than a 76 Beyer in six races coming into the Sam F. Davis. The betting public sent All I Can Get off at 33-to-1 odds, while the winner Any Given Saturday was bet down to 1-to-5. For 'Given Saturday' to walk in the footsteps of Bluegrass Cat, he will have to step his game up several levels. But Bluegrass Cat was a pretty special colt last year. The jury is still out on Any Given Saturday. What about breeding? Any Given Saturday is a son of Distorted Humor, a superior handicap horse from 1996 to 1998. Distorted Humor is a son of Forty Niner, another fine handicap horse. Forty Niner won the 1988 Travers, but he may best be remembered as the runner-up to the speedy filly Winning Colors in the Kentucky Derby the same year. The dam of Any Given Saturday is Weekend In Indy, a daughter of A.P. Indy and a direct descendent of the talented Weekend Surprise. No problems in the breeding barn for Any Given Saturday. "Circular Quay Victim Of Traffic Jam" by Jim Lambert "Shobiz Lays Down The Gauntlet" by Jim Lambert by Jim Lambert [An Excerpt From HORSING AROUND: A GUIDE FOR THE EVERYDAY HORSEPLAYER Released April 2007]
Is The
Kentucky Derby Jinx Real?
Suddenly a pattern begins to emerge. Nine "in the money" finishers in
the Juvenile were also "in the money" finishers in the following year's
Kentucky Derby. It doesn't exactly break the jinx, but this list
should give hope to future Breeders Cup Juvenile winners. Of course it makes sense that the best of the two year-old
crop will compete well in the three year-old campaign.
Churchill Downs has hosted six Breeders Cups, more than any other track, and it has produced no Kentucky Derby winners (the jury is still out for 2007). Churchill Downs has, however, produced four in the money finishers. This stands to reason because Churchill Downs is the host for the Kentucky Derby. Belmont Park, on the other hand, has hosted four Breeders Cups and has produced no Derby winners and only one in the money finisher. The two California tracks, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita Park, have hosted a combined six Breeders Cups and produced two Derby winners and six in the money finishers. Lone Star Park, Woodbine (Canada), Aqueduct, Arlington Park and Gulfstream Park have hosted a combined seven Breeders Cups, producing one Kentucky Derby winner and three in the money finishers.
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Woodbine hosted the 1996 Breeders Cup and not one of the Juvenile
participants made the trip to Kentucky for the Derby. Two
participants (Brother Derek and Private Vow) in the 2005 Breeders Cup, held at
Belmont Park, made the trip to Kentucky in 2006. However, none of the top three
2005 Juvenile finishers, Stevie Wonderboy,
Henny Hughes, or First Samurai, ran in the 2006 Derby.
Street Sense hopes to put a stop to that trend by starting in the 2007
Kentucky Derby. The only
colt that dramatically improved his performance from the Juvenile to the
Derby was Sea Hero, who languished in seventh place for the Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992, and then went on to take the 1993 Kentucky Derby,
skimming the rail. Usually it is the other way around. There
have been many Juvenile winners whose Derby performances can best be
described as train wrecks. In the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile
winner Capote finished 16th. In the 1992 Derby, Juvenile winner
Arazi finished 8th. In the 1998 Derby, Favorite Trick had a similar
fate, finishing 8th. The next year, 1999, Answer Lively finished 10th in
the Derby, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile the previous year.
The carnage continued in the 2000 Derby, with Juvenile winner Anees
running 13th. More recently, in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, Juvenile
winner Wilko finished an uninspiring 6th. 2005 Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy did not
run in the 2006 Derby due to injury. There are 55 colts which started both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the subsequent Kentucky Derby. Thirty of these colts had finished in the money in the Juvenile, and 25 finished out of the money in the Juvenile. Of the 55 Juvenile starters, the average finish in the Juvenile had been fifth, and the average finish of these colts in the Kentucky Derby was eighth. Of course, more horses run in the Derby than do in the Juvenile, so a fifth place Juvenile finish is probably not so different than an eighth place Derby finish. Of the 30 colts that finished in the money in the Juvenile, though, the average Kentucky Derby finish was seventh, much worse as a whole than their Juvenile performance. On the surface, this seems to be a surprising result. Why did the horses that hit the board in the Juvenile finish seventh, on average, in the Kentucky Derby? Is there a lesson here? I believe there is, and it centers around the physical development of the modern thoroughbred. From the time a colt is two years of age to the time he is three years of age his entire physical makeup is changing. A colt changes during this period from a "gangly teenager" to a "mature adult." In the midst of these changes, the overall athletic ability of a horse can improve dramatically. With the advantage of maturity, many average two year-olds become very fast and powerful three year-olds. And this season of change that takes place between Breeders Cup and the Kentucky Derby permanently alters the landscape for Kentucky Derby contenders. Does the Trainer Provide Any Clues? The name D Wayne Lukas is forever tied to Breeders Cup Juvenile folklore. As a matter of fact, Lukas won the 2005 Juvenile Filly with a precocious filly named Folklore. In the twenty-three Breeders Cup Juveniles run to date, D Wayne Lukas charges have collected an incredible five wins, three places and five shows. His first Juvenile win was in 1986 at Santa Anita Park with Capote, and his most recent win was in 1996 at Woodbine in Canada with Boston Harbor. To understand how unbelievable these numbers are, consider that the most in the money finishes for any other trainer besides Lukas in the Juvenile is three, ten behind the thirteen registered by Lukas. Who has the three? Bob Baffert. Several trainers own two in the money finishes. Two questions rise to mind. How did Lukas do it? And does his Breeders Cup Juvenile success translate into Kentucky Derby success? The answer to the first question is the corporate like efficiency that Lukas created in the mid 1980s, where he seemingly turned out one young champion after another. Success breeds success, and Lukas enjoyed the services of some of the most talented assistants in the business, names like Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart. Lukas could afford to pay them, and each of them went on to his own training greatness, particularly Todd Pletcher who set the all time money record for trainers in 2006, incredibly breaking his own record established only one year earlier. Kiaran McLaughlin has achieved greatness in his own right, having trained 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2006 Breeders Cup Classic winner Invasor for Sheik Hamdan's Shadwell Stable. What about the second question, do D Wayne Lukas juveniles go on to win the Kentucky Derby as three year-olds? The answer is yes, and the answer is no. The answer is yes because Lukas charges have registered four wins, one place and four shows in the Kentucky Derby during the Breeders Cup era. But the answer is also no because the horses Lukas is winning the Kentucky Derby with are not the same horses Lukas is winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile with. The five Breeders Cup Juvenile winners Lukas has saddled are Capote (1986), Success Express (1987), Is it True (1988), Timber Country (1994) and Boston Harbor (1996). Meanwhile, the four Lukas Derby winners are Winning Colors (filly, 1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999). It is remarkable that Lukas won the Juvenile and the following Derby twice, with four different horses. I didn't mean for this to be a history lesson lauding the accomplishments of D Wayne Lukas. No conversation about thoroughbred racing in the last quarter-century is complete without mention of Lukas. It is also worth mention that Bob Baffert has been equally amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Baffert, however, has not matched Lukas in the Breeders Cup Juvenile races. The playing field has become level in recent years. With Michael Matz, trainer of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, there have been eight different winning trainers in the last eight Derbies . In the last eleven runnings of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, there have been no less than eleven different winning trainers. Carl Nafzger, trainer of 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, also trained 1990 Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winner Unbridled. Which Horse Will Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby? The road to the Derby is wrought with hazards, most of them man-made. Young colts are thrust into demanding campaigns, all for the glory and profit of their connections. Let's face it, horse racing is big business and the competition is fierce. Many times a two-year old is physically spent by the time his juvenile campaign is complete, and he simply cannot recover fast enough to face the Triple Crown challenge. This is the refrain Lukas endured during his spectacular Juvenile run. His Juvenile winners either failed in the Kentucky Derby or did not run at all. Lukas was accused of extracting too much from his young charges, leaving them infirm for life. This is a simplification, though, because Lukas was in fact winning Derbies in the same period. Presumably, he trained these Derby winners as juveniles also, and they were in peak condition for their three year-old campaigns. The truth is that horses, like humans, develop physically at differing rates. A star two year-old, like Favorite Trick, peaked early as a juvenile, but was surpassed athletically as others matured and grew stronger for their three year-old campaigns. The challenge for trainers is to know the capacities and the limitations of their charges. Even when the campaign of a Derby hopeful is in full bloom, a sudden injury can derail Derby plans for even a top prospect. Such was the case for the connections of Stevie Wonderboy in 2006. There are many potential challengers to capture the roses on the first Saturday in May, and the list will only get longer. Here is a list of early Derby hopefuls for 2007.
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