"HRH Toteboard For The Grade 1
Santa Anita Derby (6th Race At Santa Anita Park, Saturday,
April 5,
2008)"
Inaugurated in 1935, the Santa Anita Derby is considered the most important West Coast stepping-stone to the Kentucky Derby. Since its inception, six Santa Anita Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby,
but it hasn't happened since 1989 (Sunday Silence).
Another era begins in 2008 with the first ever Santa
Anita Derby run over a synthetic track (Cushion Track).
The
$750,000 graded stakes takes place Saturday afternoon at
Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
Today we handicap the $750,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby
for 3-year-olds to be contested at 1 1/8 miles over the
Santa Anita main (Cushion Track) course. The Grade
1 Santa Anita Derby is the 6th race on the card at Santa
Anita Park.
Saturday's race is off at 5:30 p.m. EDT (4:30 p.m. CDT, 2:30 p.m. PDT).
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Let's get down to business. As promised, here is the
analysis of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Good luck.
The System Toteboard
Gives You The Advantage
Today we employ a tool
introduced by
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
, the
System Toteboard.
Here is the field for the 6th at
Santa Anita Park:
Santa Anita Park 6th (2:30
PDT)
Grade 1
Santa Anita Derby
1 1/8 Miles (Cushion
Track) |
3 Year-Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Trainer |
ML |
|
1 |
Yankee Bravo |
Solis A |
Paddy Gallagher |
4-1 |
|
2 |
Signature Move |
Baze M Z |
Eric Guillot |
30-1 |
|
3 |
Coast Guard |
Talamo J |
David Hoffmans |
20-1 |
|
4 |
Bob Black Jack |
Migliore R |
Jim Kasparoff |
6-1 |
|
5 |
Colonel John |
Nakatani C S |
Eoin Harty |
2-1 |
|
6 |
On The Virg |
Baze T C |
Pletcher Todd |
15-1 |
|
7 |
Shore Do |
Sutherland C |
Bobby Frankel |
20-1 |
|
8 |
El Gato Malo |
Flores D R |
Craig Dollase |
5-2 |
|
9 |
Polonius |
Espinoza V |
Michael Pender |
10-1 |
|
10 |
Meeting With Destiny |
Rosario J |
Dennis O’Neill |
30-1 |
|
11 |
Rosso Corsa |
Quinonez A |
Darrell Vienna |
50-1 |
Copyright 2008 Daily
Racing Form
Step 1.
Compare
the odds on the
System Toteboard to the
Morning Line
odds for the race.
Here are the two toteboards:
Morning Line Odds for the 6th at Santa
Anita
Park
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#1 |
#2
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#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
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#7 |
#8
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#9 |
#10 |
#11
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4 |
30 |
20 |
6 |
2 |
15 |
20 |
5:2 |
10 |
30 |
50 |
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System Toteboard Odds for
the 6th at Santa Anita Park
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#1 |
#2
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#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6
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#7 |
#8
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#9 |
#10 |
#11 |
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9:2 |
30 |
17 |
10 |
5:2 |
15 |
19 |
2 |
9 |
35 |
55 |
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Step 2.
Copy down the program number,
System
Toteboard odds, and Morning
Line odds of every horse having
Morning Line odds
higher
than the System Toteboard odds.
|
Program Number |
System Toteboard odds |
Morning Line odds |
|
#3 |
17.0 |
20.0 |
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#7 |
19.0 |
20.0 |
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#8 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
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#9 |
9.0 |
10.0 |
Step 3.
Using only the horses from Step 2, subtract
the System Toteboard odds from the
Morning Line odds.
Now
divide the result by the System Toteboard odds.
Copy this
number down for each horse.
|
Program Number |
Morning Line
odds - System Toteboard odds |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
|
#3 |
3.0 |
0.18 |
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#7 |
1.0 |
0.05 |
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#8 |
0.5 |
0.25 |
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#9 |
1.0 |
0.11 |
Step 4.
List the horses
from Step 3 from the
largest
red
number down to the
smallest
red number.
|
Program Number |
Result / System
Toteboard odds |
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#8 |
0.25 |
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#3 |
0.18 |
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#9 |
0.11 |
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#7 |
0.05 |
Step
5.
It's time to wrap things up!
Our analysis indicates #8 (El Gato Malo),
#3 (Coast Guard), #9 (Polonius) and #7 (Shore Do) are the Key value horses for our wagers. We incorporate these
horses into our betting strategy. Here is the low down on the race and
our final strategy to win!
You can follow our betting strategy below or simply bet $2 across the
board on our value plays: #8 (El Gato Malo),
#3 (Coast Guard), #9 (Polonius) and #7 (Shore Do).
A
Preview Of
The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby [Santa Anita Park
Race 6]
[#1] Yankee Bravo - Yankee Bravo was
the lone California shipper in the Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds) and
had won all three of his prior contests, including a maiden race last
fall in England, the Eddie Logan Stakes on turf at Santa Anita, and the
California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on January 27. His arrival in
the "Big Easy" was delayed one day due to a cancelled flight from
California, however that didn't stop him from running a quality race.
While all eyes were on consensus Kentucky Derby favorite Pyro (who
stormed down the lane to win the Louisiana Derby) Yankee Bravo closed
determinedly, edging Blackberry Road for the show. Yankee Bravo has
been a picture of consistency for trainer Paddy Gallagher, who is
understandingly very high on the 3-year-old colt. The Louisiana Derby
was Yankee Bravo's first start on a conventional dirt track. He won his
first two starts on grass and then won on a synthetic track at Golden
Gate Fields. His best chance (in the Louisiana Derby) was to bide his
time and hope to make one big run, and that's essentially what he did.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Yankee Bravo makes his first start on Cushion
Track, although he has already won a stakes over a synthetic track (the
Golden Gate Tapeta Track). Sire Yankee
Gentleman (a son of Storm Cat) earned just over $200,000 in ten career
starts, and did not finish in-the-money in a stakes. Broodmare sire
Royal Academy was three-times group stakes placed in Europe from 6
furlongs up to a mile, but the pinnacle of his career was a victory in
the 1990 Breeders Cup Mile (on turf).
[#2] Signature Move - Signature Move will be making his first start since finishing 10th in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at
the Fair Grounds in February. He emerged from that race with a lung infection, trainer Eric Guillot said.
Prior to the Risen Star, Signature Move had two wins in three starts,
including back-to-back maiden and first-level allowance victories at
Santa Anita (over Cushion Track). Signature Move has yet to beat
anybody worth mentioning.
Sire Vindication won the 2002 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Arlington Park
(over a very deep and tiring dirt track) before the Polytrack era at Arlington. Vindication also won the G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile
(Turfway Park) on a speed favoring dirt track. Other offspring of Vindication include
More Happy (last year's G2 Adirondack winner) and Maimonides (a talented
West Coast sprinter). With Seattle Slew and Strawberry Road from
the male line, and El Prado and Sadler's Wells from the female line,
Signature Move has an intriguing and well balanced pedigree.
[#3] Coast Guard - Coast Guard broke his maiden in his third start (December 29)
earning an 84 Beyer leading gate to wire on graduation day. Immediately
Coast Guard headed to the Robert B. Lewis, his first stakes.
In the G2 Robert B. Lewis, Coast Guard finished runner-up
(to Crown Of Thorns) at Santa Anita.
Coast Guard raced on or near the pace until finally yielding to the
winner (Crown Of Thorns).
Coast Guard was expected to run in the
G3 Sham in late February, but was a late withdrawal. Coast Guard is improving steadily for trainer David Hoffmans
and has a bright future.
Sire Stormy Atlantic is a son of Storm Cat, and that almost invariably
means turf and synthetic track aptitude. Stormy Atlantic earned
only $123,000 in 15 starts. Coast Guard's broodmare sire Royal Academy
(a son of Nijinsky) earned over $720,000 in only seven career starts (all in 1990). Royal Academy was three-times group stakes placed in Europe from 6 furlongs
up to a mile, but the pinnacle of his career was a victory in the 1990 Breeders Cup Mile
(on turf, of course). Coast Guard owns a pedigree highly suited to
racing on synthetic surfaces (such as Cushion Track).
[#4] Bob Black Jack – The pedigree of Bob Black Jack is perfect for a
sprinter racing on Cushion Track. So it’s no surprise Bob Black
Jack set a track record at 6 furlongs (1:06.53) on Cushion Track in the
Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita earlier this year. Bob Black
Jack tried stretching out in the G2 San Felipe (also on Cushion Track)
and, after setting a controlled pace, fell victim to Georgie Boy and
Gayego in the lane. Bob Black Jack held third the San Felipe and
there is no reason to expect a better result in the Santa Anita Derby.
There are other candidates (apart from Bob Black Jack)
capable of pressing the pace early, and the big boys
(notably El Gato Malo, Colonel John, and Yankee Bravo) should be flying
down the lane late.
Bob Black Jack ‘s sire Stormy Jack was an effective West Coast sprinter
from 1999-2001 and his best effort was a second (to Caller One) in the
G3 Los Angeles Handicap. Stormy Jack ‘s sire Bertrando was a major
force on the West Coast, winning seven graded stakes and securing
second in the 1993 Breeders Cup Classic. Bertrando’s sire
Skywalker introduces turf (and synthetic track) aptitude into the
pedigree of Bob Black Jack. In the female line of Bob Black Jack,
broodmare sire Native Prospector (a son of Mr. Prospector) introduces
yet more speed into the bloodline.
Are You A Practical "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettor? Or
Maybe You're A Sensible "Lighter" Bettor. You Could Be A Let It All
Hang Out "Deep Pockets" Bettor. Or Possibly You Are A
"Power Ball"
Bettor Swinging For The Fences. Whatever The Case We Have The
Best
Kentucky Derby 2008 Strategy For You.
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Kentucky Derby 2008 Membership Information
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[#5] Colonel John - Colonel John is on everybody's list
of top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders, and this is based on a brilliant West Coast campaign.
The problem is, the Kentucky Derby is not run on Cushion Track, or Polytrack
for that matter. It's still run on good old dirt. Thank God
for small favors! Colonel John ran a perfect race to defeat El Gato Malo
in the G3 Sham. His winning move was timed so precisely, El Gato
Malo could not regroup in time to pass Colonel John (although it looked
as if he would had they ran another 100 yards). Colonel John also
won the Real Quiet Stakes (Hollywood Park) this year. And last
year Colonel John finished second (to Into Mischief) in the G1 Cashcall
Futurity at Hollywood Park. There are no weaknesses in Colonel
John's game (as long as he's on Cushion Track) and he will probably be
favored over El Gato Malo in the Santa Anita Derby.
Colonel John's sire Tiznow is also the sire of Slew's Tiznow, Slew's Tizzy,
and Bear Now, all principally synthetic track specialists. Tiznow is the only horse in history to win back-to-back Breeders Cup Classics at Churchill Downs
(2000) and Belmont Park (2001). Tiznow's winning times for his two Classic wins were good but not exceptional.
Colonel John's broodmare sire Turkoman was a $2 million earner with
two G1 victories on conventional dirt at classic distances. Turkoman also finished third in the 1985 Breeders Cup Classic and second
in the 1986 Breeders Cup Classic.
[#6] On The Virg –
Todd Pletcher trains On The Virg and would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby. On
The Virg responded for Pletcher in late February with a half-length victory over lukewarm favorite Winsome Charm in Santa Anita’s $59,000 The Deputy Purse. Although seven of the field of ten
were nominated to the Triple Crown, the race developed into a two-horse contest with Winsome Charm setting the pace and On
The Virg tracking in second. With Garrett Gomez aboard, On The Virg passed Winsome Charm in mid-stretch and steadily drew clear. The final time for the 1 1/16 miles (on Cushion Track) was a reasonable 1:44.89. The Deputy Purse is the second win routing in three starts for On The Virg. Prior to The Deputy Purse, On
The Virg finished off-the-board as even-money favorite in his six furlong debut at Hollywood Park last December.
On The Virg was purchased for $160,000 as a yearling. On The Virg ‘s sire Pulpit is a son of the classic stallion A P Indy. The sire line of Pulpit is Bold Ruler (sire of Secretariat) and that generally indicates an affinity to conventional dirt. Pulpit won four of six starts (all on conventional dirt) for earnings of $712,000 and won both the 1997 Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes. Two famous sons of Pulpit are Pyro and Corinthian. On The Virg ‘s broodmare sire Housebuster earned much of his $1.2 million sprinting, and could occasionally nurse his brilliant speed
up to a mile. For stamina and synthetic track aptitude, we find Green Dancer, Nijinsky, and Sir Ivor present in the female line of On The Virg’s dam House Virgin.
[#7] Shore Do
–Shore Do is a winner of one in five starts for earnings of $67,920. In
his first graded stakes, Shore Do finished third (behind Dixie Chatter
and Salute The Sarge) in the G2 Norfolk at Santa Anita on Cushion
Track. Shore Do finished about three lengths back of the winner Dixie
Chatter. Dixie Chatter and Salute The Sarge are both synthetic track
specialists and may be better suited to Cushion Track than Shore Do.
However, what makes Shore Do attractive is that he broke his maiden in a
two-turn mile on the Del Mar turf course. In the Breeders Cup Juvenile
last year, longshot Shore Do finished eighth (beaten 26 lengths). Chuck
Peery trained Shore Do for his first four races, but Bobby Frankel has
since taken over training duties. In the G1 Cash Call Futurity last
December, Shore Do finished a non-threatening tenth.
Shore Do is a 3-year-old by Include out of the Dynaformer mare Dynashore.
Include was a winner of seven stakes including the 2001 Pimlico
Special. Although Include was superior at classic distances he was not
bred for the grass or synthetic tracks. Include’s sire Broad Brush was
a superior handicap horse on conventional dirt. The American stallion
Dynaformer, however, is an excellent sire for classic distances on all
surfaces, including the Santa Anita Cushion Track.
[#8] El Gato Malo - El Gato Malo has won 3 of 4 starts and earned over $200,000,
his only defeat at the hands of Colonel John in the G3 Sham on March 1. El Gato Malo is one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby
candidates to emerge from the West Coast labyrinth of synthetic race tracks.
In the G3 Sham at Santa Anita, Colonel John got the jump on El Gato Malo
and held him safe in the final yards, but El Gato Malo looked visually
to be the better horse. Back in January, El Gato Malo won the G3
San Rafael with daylight to spare after stalking a fast pace. His
victims in the San Rafael include Indian Sun, Massive Drama, and Sierra
Sunset. Sierra Sunset went on to win the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, and
has since been sidelined due to injury. With all of his four starts on synthetic tracks, El Gato Malo is a mystery on conventional dirt
tracks (such as the Kentucky Derby host track Churchill Downs) but he is
certainly one of the best 3-year-olds on synthetic surfaces.
Hazard a guess which track hosts the Breeders Cup Classic the next two
years? Santa Anita Park. Advantage El Gato Malo.
Sire El Corredor won seven of ten lifetime starts for earnings of
over $727,000. El Corredor was a one mile specialist on conventional dirt winning graded stakes on both the
East and West Coasts, including the G1 Cigar Mile (2000). Broodmare sire Mountain Cat was a four-time graded stakes winner
(1992-1993) on conventional dirt from 6 furlongs up to a 1 1/16 miles.
Mountain Cat is a son of Storm Cat, and Storm Cat is proving to be one
of the most successful Polytrack sires.
[#9] Polonius - Polonius won
his stakes debut in the one-mile Pasadena Stakes on turf on March 15,
and makes his graded stakes (and Cushion Track) debut in the $750,000
Santa Anita Derby on April 5. Trainer Michael Pender gained his first
stakes win in the Pasadena and started making Kentucky Derby prep plans for Polonius.
Pender considered the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, and the
Santa Anita Derby, and finally decided to stay at Santa Anita for the Santa Anita Derby. Polonius now has 2 wins in 3 overall
starts. After defeating maidens in a six-furlong turf sprint at
Hollywood Park last July, Polonius was sidelined for seven months and
did not return to racing until February, finishing fourth in an optional
claimer on the Santa Anita hillside turf course. Then came the Pasadena
Stakes, with Polonius winning by four lengths in a front-running effort,
his first start around two turns. Now a proven commodity over the turf,
Polonius gets his chance on Cushion Track in the Santa Anita Derby.
Sire Broken Vow is also the sire of the millionairess Unbridled Belle,
winner of the G1 Beldame last year. Broken Vow is a descendant of
Fappiano and Nijinsky, two important turf (and potentially Cushion
Track) influences. Polonius's dam Word O'Ransom is a daughter of Red
Ransom and Right Word. The sire of Red Ransom is Roberto, another major
turf influence. And the sire of Right Word is Verbatim, yet another
grass influence. The pedigree of Polonius is a sign of the times,
heavily influenced by turf stallions, and clearly pointed toward a
career spent on turf and synthetic tracks. [#10] Meetingwithdestiny - Meetingwithdestiny will certainly be a longshot in
the Santa Anita Derby, but trainer Dennis O’Neill feels the gelding’s
March 1 maiden victory was flattered by the horse he beat that day
(Screen To Screen). Meetingwithdestiny broke his maiden in his
sixth attempt, defeated the game first-time starter
Screen To Screen (by a nose). Afterwards, Screen To Screen went on to
finish second (to Liberty Bull) in the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park.
Screen To Screen was a maiden making his stakes debut, and he managed a
second-place finish, a neck in front of stakes winner Ablaze With
Spirit, who closed for third. Meetingwithdestiny will be making his
stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby.
Meetingwithdestiny is a Kentucky-bred son of Belong to Me. Belong To Me
was a nice stakes sprinter back in 1992 and his influence adds balance
to Meetingwithdestiny’s distance aptitude. Meetingwithdestiny ‘s
broodmare sire Pleasant Colony earned over $965,000 and took the first
two jewels of the 1981 Triple Crown. A descendant of Ribot, Pleasant
Colony is an excellent source of stamina. Alydar is present in the
female line of Meetingwithdestiny’s dam Capricha, further enhancing a
classic boodline.
[#11] Rosso Corsa - The lightly raced California-bred Rosso Corsa broke his maiden in a $100,000
maiden claimer race at 1 1/16 miles last out on March 7 at Santa Anita. Richard Migliore has the mount
in the Santa Anita Derby. Rosso Corsa is a late addition to the
expected field, and the Santa Anita Derby will be his stakes debut.
Rosso Corsa's sire Ferrari is a German-bred with a strictly German
pedigree. Ferrari specialized at the European classic distances
and raced primarily in Germany. Rosso Corsa's broodmare sire
Prized earned over $2 million and reeled off four graded stakes wins in
1990. Prized could run long and he could run on either grass or
dirt. A son of Kris S, Prized should be a positive source of
Cushion track aptitude.
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Wager Recommendation
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby [Santa Anita Park
Race 6]
For "Deep Pockets" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 8 ($100)
$30 Exacta 8/9 with 5/8/9 ($120)
$15 Exacta 8/9 with 1/3/7 ($60)
10¢
Superfecta 8/9 with ALL with 1/5/8/9 with ALL ($43.20)
Total Wagers $323.20
For "Lighter" Bettors
$5 Exacta 8/9 with 5/8/9 ($20)
$3 Exacta 8/9 with 1/3/7 ($12)
10¢
Superfecta 8/9 with ALL with 1/5/8/9 with ALL ($43.20)
Total Wagers $75.20
For "Sharpshooter" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 8/9 with ALL with 5 with ALL ($14.40)
Total Wagers $14.40
For "Just Interested In Making A Buck" Bettors
$50 Win-Place 8 ($100)
$15 Win 9 ($15)
Total Wagers $115
For "Power Ball" Bettors
10¢
Superfecta 1/3/8/9 with ALL with 5 with ALL ($28.80)
Total Wagers $28.80
Reminder: To check the results for the weekly
selection you can
always go to the home page for
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com and click on the date in the upper right
corner.
Last Week's Results
The winning favorite Big Brown tossed a shutout against
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com in the Florida Derby. Big Brown
becomes the first horse to win from the 12th post position at 1 1/8
miles since the Gulfstream Park main course was reconfigured in 2005.
Our value plays Fierce Wind [#1], Cool Gator [#5] and Majestic Warrior
[#10] finished tenth, fifth, and sixth, respectively. We'll be
back
next week for an in-depth look at another Kentucky Derby prep..
|
Prg # |
Horse |
Jockey |
Win |
Place |
Show |
|
12 |
Big Brown |
Desormeaux K |
5.00 |
3.80 |
3.20 |
|
2 |
Smooth Air |
Cruz M |
|
12.60 |
7.60 |
|
4 |
Tomcito |
Chavez J |
|
|
6.20 |
$2 Exacta (12-2) Paid
$68.80
$2 Trifecta (12-2-4) Paid $702.80
$2 Superfecta (12-2-4-9) Paid $5,822.80
Reserve
All 3 Triple Crown Full Cards Now Click Here
Copyright 2008
Horse-Race-Handicapping.com
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