Malibu Sunshine:  The only member of the field ever to have raced on the Pimlico course before.  In fact, he has run 4 times here, and won twice, including the 1 1/8 mile Federico Tesio most recently, in a pedestrian 153.2.  I watched the Federico Tesio and I was not overly impressed as Malibu Sunshine managed to run by the collapsing speed in late stretch.  Home course is a real advantage, though, because the hometown horse is used to the sights and sounds and nuances of the racetrack.  He is less likey to get spooked or lose concentration.  It is for this reason that Malibu Sunshine has a chance to hit the board, no better than second I suspect, though.
High Fly:  For the first time in his life, High Fly finished off the board in the Kentucky Derby.  He has won 5 of 7 lifetime against top competition.  This race is certainly within his grasp.  Even though this colt finished out of the money in the Derby, don't count on seeing that happen again in the Preakness.  For whatever reason, Nick Zito's vaunted colt sleptwalk through the most exciting two minutes in sports, but he is bound to awaken gunning on the speed favoring Maryland racecourse.  Expect him to be flying at the top of the lane.  He will threaten at the very least, and post position 2 is beneficial.
Noble Causeway:  Everyone was terribly disappointed with his performance in the Derby.  Throw the Derby out, and this is legitimate because of the confounding nature of the Derby, and you are looking at the colt that is most likely to win the Preakness.  Noble Causeway will have every opportunity, engineered by a perfect mixture of speed and stamina.  Nick Zito will have him ready to go.  Don't forget he ran a big 2nd to stablemate High Fly in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, and he is still  eligible to improve off a light schedule.  He may offer value as a sweetener.  This is where my money is going.
Greeley's Galaxy:  Greeley's Galaxy is intriguing in that his speedy stalker running style is perfect for the Pimlico course.  He should be fresh after expending little energy in the Derby.  Of couse the same can be said for the Nick Zito trio of runners, and any of those three is probably more talented than this fellow.  Still, Greeley's Galaxy will perform better in Maryland.  Don’t forget his eye-popping victory in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby.  This colt has a realistic chance to fill your trifecta.
Scrappy T:  The Preakness is simply the wrong race at the wrong time for Scraps.  He is a moderately fast colt with no aspirations of going the distance against these kind.  He managed to earn a 102 Beyer in the Grade 3  Withers at Aqueduct by pressing the pace, driving hard, and losing no ground at all.  This will not happen for him in the Preakness.  Enough said.
Hal's Image:  This Florida bred has a record of 2 wins in 16 lifetime races.  The victories came at Calder racecourse, a speed-biased dirt track, and in slow times, and against local competition.  This colt simply does not belong in the Preakness Stakes.  I assign him the dubious label of "pace fodder."
Closing Argument:  A dead giveaway about how Closing Argument will perform on the Pimlico course is his earlier racing at Calder in Florida.  In two mediocre stakes events he managed to finish 2nd and 3rd, easily handled by the winners.  Expect more of the same in the Preakness.  None of the influential factors that were present in the Derby will be manifest in the Preakness.  The speed wil not universally collapse, the stretch is not long enough for "out of the clouds" charges, and the race distance is shorter, and furthermore the turns are sharper.  Closing Argument will be lucky to hit the board..
Galloping Grocer:  Another newcomer to Triple Crown trail, this colt last won during his two-year old campaign at Belmont in the Sleepy Hollow in October 2004.  The New York bred was clearly a better prospect as a juvenile, and the others in the class have caught up with him. He is an outsider in the Preakness.
Wilko:  Wilko is going to have a nice career as a turf specialist.  Ten of his 14 lifetime races were on European grass courses, and he hit the board in 8 of those events.  However, his style is problematic for the narrow, sharp turns of the Pimlico dirt course.  Wilko will be forever circling turns and and getting carried wide in the process.  And frankly he is not fast enough on dirt to make up for all that lost ground.  He will not win the Preakness.  Did I hear someone say superfecta?
Sun King:  Sun King has been performing in a less than stellar manner for about a five week stretch, however don’t forget he was represented as one of Nick Zito's top prospects not so very long ago.  Also don't forget he finished a very willing 4th behind Bandini and High Limit in the Grade 1 Blue Grass.  Sun King can be excused for sleepwalking through the crowded nightmare of the Derby.  He is not a great horse, but he is certainly good enough to win the Preakness in the right circumstances.  Sun King is the kind of horse that knows how to take advantage of the sharp Pimlico turns and abbreviated stretch.  And he may do so at a big price.  He should offer honest value.
High Limit:  Can we expect this colt to make amends?  Bobby Frankel says yes, and he is right.  Does this mean he will win?  Well, no, he will not.  You see, there are several clones of High Limit in this race, all running fast early and fast through the far turn and fast into the stretch.  All of a sudden High Limit's loss to Bandini in the Blue Grass looks a lot less flattering, with Bandini's horrible performance in the Kentucky Derby.  But I rarely leave Bobby Frankel out, and it is wise to include him in the exotics on Preakness day.
Afleet Alex:  The only colt who really impressed in the Kentucky Derby is this fellow, with a courageous, determined effort to narrowly miss the win, and capture the show.  Afleet Alex has placed in the money an impressive 9 out 10 lifetime races.  This inlcudes an impressive 4 out of 5 in graded stakes races.  Granted, the Arkansas Derby field he destroyed was not near as talented as this group.  Still, with the splendid Derby peformance, and an opportunity to race on the speed favoring Pimlico course, coupled with his subtle stalking style and courage, he is a deserving favorite.  That is the upside.  There is, alas, a down side.  He expended great energy going for the roses on May 7, and that determined effort surely depleted his cache of reserves.  There is no way to recoup quickly off that effort.  Still, he is dangerous, but I think he can and will be beaten.  Who will best him?  There are three colts trained by Nick Zito in this race.  Any one one of them can beat Afleet Alex on Saturday.
Giacomo:  This a direct quote from my tipsheet for the Kentucky Derby: "Yet another Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby also-ran.  His only victory is a Maiden Allowance event at Santa Anita."  I am not embarrassed about this statement, well, maybe just a little bit, because the Derby was run so slow, due to a variety of reasons, that a Santa Anita Derby also ran could have won, and did win.  The Preakness is altogether a different animal.  Quoting myself once again, and let’s hope that is not too much a display of narcism: "The Preakness will be run in typical Pimlico fashion:  fast and furious.  And if a horse does not break, forget it, he is history.  It is very rare for superior front-runners to lose at Pimlico.  There will be no Ferdinands or Sea Heros or even Giacomos surprising everyone and winning this race." 
Going Wild:  My exact Derby quote for this colt is:  "With deference to D. Wayne Lukas, this is a Hail Mary pass if ever there were one.  No reason to expect much against these."  I was right, and he will not win the Preakness, but he can be prominent early, and he my effect the outcome of the race by offering serious pace pressure to the other early runners.  And the more pressure to the early runners, the better the chance for the superior stalkers, such as Noble Causeway and Afleet Alex, and perhaps High Fly.  But Going Wild will not be there at the wire.

OK, everybody, here it is, the Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com $100 Bankroll plays.

Picks: High Fly (2) - Noble Causeway (11) - Sun King (10) - Afleet Alex (12)  

2005 Preakness Stakes

Horse-Race-Handicapping.Com Underestimates Alex! 

$100 Bankroll Plays Returns $0.

$1 Trifecta Picks:

2 / 3 with 2 / 3 / 10 / 12 with 1 /2 / 3 / 4 / 7 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 12 / 13  ($48)

$1 Exacta Picks:

2 / 3 / 10 / 12 with 2 / 3 / 4 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 12 / 13   ($28)

$24 Win Pick:

2 ($24)

2005 Preakness Stakes Review
 
Giacomo, a son of Holy Bull, closes late to upset the apple cart.  Giacomo is owned by record producer Jerry Ross, trained by John Shirreffs, and was ridden to victory by Mike Smith.  Closing Argument places second at 71-1.  The shortest price to hit the boad is Afleet Alex at 9-2. 

Results and Payoffs:

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