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Update 2 The first stakes race for Sweetnorthernsaint was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by 10 lengths and it could have been more. Two races before that he won a $40,000 maiden claimer at Laurel by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his next race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, getting the six panels in 1:09. The salient point is that Sweetnorthernsaint has raced twice over the Laurel main course, which is right across the way and very similar in layout to Pimlico, the host track for the Preakness. Among the Kentucky Derby runners entered in the Preakness, Sweetnorthernsaint is the colt that can be associated most closely with home field advantage. Sweetnorthernsaint ran a reputable race in the Kentucky Derby, his seventh lifetime start, and after reaching contention faltered when straightening out for the drive. He ended up seventh, beaten 13 lengths by Barbaro. Sweetnorthernsaint did manage to beat 13 of his 19 opponents, not a bad effort. He ran the first three-quarters in 1:11.7 seconds, four lengths and a head off the lead, and proceeded to run the final one-half mile in 52.2, averaging a reasonable 26.1 seconds for the final two quarters. Sweetnorthernsaint crossed the wire in 2:03.9, not a winning time by any stretch but again, a reasonable time. The Preakness will be the fourth race in 14 weeks for Sweetnorthernsaint, which is not an overburden, and Michael Trombetta and Sweetnorthernsaint will feel very comfortable in the State of Maryland. Update 1 The map to the Kentucky Derby that Sweetnorthernsaint is following parallels the journey of his handler, Michael Trombetta. The 39-year-old Trombetta has been training horses for going on twenty years now and he has spent most of those years based in Maryland and Virginia. Not coincidentally, Sweetnorthernsaint made his debut at Colonial Downs in Virginia and moved on to Laurel in Maryland for his next race. Sweetnorthernsaint finished 12th in a field of 14 at Colonial Downs, but all racing at Colonial is on the turf and the race had little meaning for the future of Sweetnorthernsaint. His Laurel race hinted at what was to come, as he won a $40,000 maiden claimer by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his third race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, stopping the watch at 1:09 for the six furlongs. His first stakes was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by an ever widening 10 lengths. Now it was time for a graded stakes, and Trombetta readied his charge for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Here Sweetnorthernsaint faced off with fellow Derby aspirants Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry, but it was a 36 to 1 outsider by the name of Like Now who stole the spotlight from the principals. Sweetnorthernsaint availed himself nicely, though, traveling 3-wide the entire race and persevering to a hard earned third place finish, less than a length beaten by the winner Like Now, and only ½ length shy of runner-up Keyed Entry. No one knew how much the Gotham took out of Sweetnorthernsaint, but three weeks later he climbed back in the ring to take on Cause To Believe and My Golden Song in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, with $500,000 in prize money at stake. Sweetnorthernsaint needed to finish second or better to earn enough to secure a position in the top 20 graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Sweetnorthernsaint cruised to victory in the Illinois Derby, finishing 9 ¼ lengths clear of runner-up and pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe ran third, another length back, and My Golden Song finished a well-beaten seventh. Not only did Sweetnorthernsaint capture the lion's share of the purse money, but he seemed to levitate to another level in the Illinois Derby. Next stop, Louisville. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 &
BROTHER DEREK To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here LIKE NOW Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.40. Like Now is sired by Jules, a son of Forty Niner. The sire line of Jules is Raise A Native. The sire of Jules John Dillon (owner) and Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) made the right decision to hold Like Now out of the Kentucky Derby and point him towards the Preakness. Had he run in the Derby they would still be scraping him off the ground from getting run over by the other 19 horses. Enough said. Like Now is perfectly suited for the speed biased Pimlico main course. Remember, Like Now used his brilliant speed to steal the Grade 3 Gotham over the speed favoring inner dirt course at Aqueduct, holding off Keyed Entry and Sweetnorthernsaint in the process, and he stands a much better chance in the Preakness than he would have had in the Derby. That said, the more speed entered against him the less likely he is to do well in the Preakness. With Bernardini, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Simon Pure scheduled to run, not to mention Barbaro, Like Now will have a small mountain to climb to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Update 2 Like Now earned $65,000 for his second place finish in the Grade 2 Lexingon Stakes at Keeneland , Saturday, April 22. Together with the $120,000 from the Grade 3 Gotham victory, Like Now has $185,00 in graded stakes earnings, good enough for 17th place on the earnings list and an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. Under the careful handling of rider Fernando Jara (replacement for the injured J. R. Velazquez), Like Now sparred with Fast Parade in the early going of the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes, and after disposing of that one alternated leads with long shot Bear Character in early stretch. Like Now was tackled by eventual winner Showing Up in deep stretch and managed to save the place. In the aftermath of the Lexington, the connections of Like Now are hesitant to announce a Kentucky Derby committment. Realistically, Like Now has little or no chance to win in the Derby. The limitations of the pedigree, coupled with the strength of the anticipated Derby field, are simply too high a mountain to climb for Like Now. Update 1 The influence of speed in the pedigree of Like Now is evident on the track in dramatic fashion, and Like Now used his inherited speed to separate himself from the rest of the Grade 3 Gotham field, Saturday, March 18, at Aqueduct, holding just enough in reserve to repel the late challenge from Keyed Entry (Todd Pletcher). The result was a first place paycheck in a graded stakes, and a huge upset at odds of better than 36 to 1. Kiaran McLaughlin, a one-time Lukas assistant, handles Like Now for owner John J. Dillon, and owner and trainer must realize that the same strengths Like Now exhibited in winning the Gotham are going to be exposed as weaknesses at the classic distances (the Gotham was 1 1/16 miles) against the best 3-year-olds in the country. For now, though, for the connections of Like Now, it is time to savor the taste of victory. Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.81. The sire of Barbaro is Dynaformer, known as a prodigious sire of turf specialists. Dynaformer has managed to sire Dynever and Mystery Giver, two superior dirt runners. Barbaro's dam is La Ville Rouge. Barbaro is only her second foal to race. With maternal grandsire Carson City, Barbaro's pedigree on the dam side is heavily slanted towards speed, although the sire line of Turn-To injects much needed stamina into Barbaro's pedigree. Horse racing writers almost to a man (and woman) railed on about the five weeks Barbaro did not race before the Kentucky Derby. There were exactly 35 days between Barbaro's previous race, the Florida Derby (April 1), and the Kentucky Derby (May 6). Michael Matz chose to prepare Barbaro without a race during that period, and the media "alerted" everyone to the dangers of that strategy, citing the " . . . hasn't been done since Needles did it in 1956 . . . " mantra. The shortest wait between races for a Derby horse this year was 14 days for Showing Up, and the longest wait was the 35 days for Barbaro and Flashy Bull. On dirt, layoffs for top caliber horses are not a concern unless they fall inside the 60 to 100 day range. This is a statistical fact I discovered analyzing literally tens of thousands of races over a twenty-three year period, and is documented in my book "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," not an easy read, I might add. It makes perfect sense if you think about this way: A horse that has not raced in 80 days and is entered on the 81st day has taken too long a break for a horse in top physical condition, because he would have raced well before the 81st day. On the other hand, 81 days is not enough time to correct a debilitating physical condition and prepare a horse to compete at the top level. The 35-day layoff Barbaro experienced is a perfectly acceptable latent period for a top level performer with a top level handler like Matz. It is well under the 60-day layoff that would send a warning signal to the handicapper. The Needles factor is more a "factoid" than a "factor," with no statistical bearing whatsoever. "Well, now the table's turned, isn't it?" Matz said a day after the Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby. "That's what we were planning for with the five weeks' rest. It looks like we made the right plan." Another problem occurs when a horse comes back too soon to race again. On dirt, that period is 8 days or less. The Preakness is only 14 days after the Kentucky Derby, but it is long enough to recover, and it should not pose a problem except for "over-campaigned" horses. This would tend to include only one Derby horse, Lawyer Ron, with 15 starts since the summer of 2005 and no siginificant break. The "wear and tear" factor would have come into play for Lawyer Ron in the Preakness with only a 14 day rest after a gruelling campaign, but his connections have withdrawn him from consideration for the Preakness. Meanwhile, thanks to Michael Matz, Barbaro has just six overall starts, and the Preakness will be only his third start in 49 days, his second in 14 days, and he looks to be in superb physical condition. How will Barbaro do in the Preakness? He should be the top choice, but there is no guarantee of a win. Not one of the Preakness horses that ran in the Derby has ever raced at Pimlico. Sweetnorthernsaint comes closest, with two races on the Laurel main course, and Barbaro has one race over the Laurel turf. Sweetnorthernsaint has somewhat of a "home field advantage" having spent time training and racing in Maryland. The Pimlico factor is a big unknown, casting a shadow over the Churchill Downs performances, which have little bearing on the Preakness. The Pimlico course is much friendlier to front runners than Churchill Downs, and the Preakness is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro will be the justifiable favorite, but the uncertainty of the Pimlico effect introduces unwanted variance into the equation. Ulimately, the proof is in the pudding. Update 2 In witnessing the Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 1, at Gulfstream Park, I knew I was seeing a brilliantly prepared colt in Barbaro. His ears were pricked, his coat was shining in the sunlight, and his muscles were taught with strength. Barbaro overcame the handicap of the 10th post position by using his speed to secure a good position on the first turn. He stalked the determined leader Sharp Humor, reached even terms on the far turn, and engaged the leader in a prolonged stretch duel, wearing down Sharp Humor only late in the proceedings, and posting a ½ length victory over Sharp Humor, with Sunriver another 3 lengths back. Barbaro reached the wire in 1:49.01, a good time to be sure considering the difficulty an extreme outside post poses in a two-turn route at Gulfstream Park. The winner's share of the Florida Derby prize money secures Barbaro an invitation to the big dance in Kentucky, and he will go there undefeated, a perfect 5 wins in 5 starts. Barbaro also proved to his detractors that a dry dirt surface is no problem at all. Is there any downside, is the glass half empty? The maternal grandsire of Barbaro is Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector) and the progeny of Carson City are heavily slanted towards speed. This could pose a problem down the road in the Belmont, run at 1 ½ miles. Carson City accounts for only a quarter of the pedigree of Barbaro, and the speed he injects into the pedigree could mix a perfect cocktail of ¾ stamina and ¼ speed for the Kentucky Derby. Michael Matz has to be thrilled with the outlook for his charge going into the weeks leading up to the Derby. Update 1 This fellow opened eyes in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park in winning his fourth race in four starts for trainer Michael Matz, the Holy Bull being the first race on dirt, albeit sloppy, for Barbaro. The field for the Holy Bull was only typical Grade 3 competition, but it is nice to see Barbaro continue his streak. If he is to prove his mettle as a Derby hopeful, he needs to take on tougher competition. Michael Matz trains Barbaro, and Matz has devoted his life to horses. He is a record setting show jumping rider, a three time Olympian, and won the U. S. Equestrian Team (USET) Show Jumping Championship a record six times. Matz has in recent years turned his attention to training thoroughbreds. At least until the Florida Derby, April 1, Barbaro will not have raced on a dry dirt surface (the Holy Bull was run over a sloppy Gulfstream track), so we need to see how he handles it before coming to any conclusions about his chances in the Derby. DOSAGE INDEX 3.31. Bernardini is a son of the topflight sire A. P. Indy. A. P. Indy progeny win an outstanding 15% of open stakes at the classic distances. A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. A. P. Indy was the #1 North American sire of SW (Stakes Winners) in 2004. A. P. Indy was the North American leading sire of 2003. Some of the illustrious sons & daughters of A. P. Indy are A. P. Warrior, Teammate, Sweet Symphony, Congrats, Mineshaft, Suave, Aptitude, Seeking the Glory, and Sweet Symphony. Bernardini is a very close relation to A. P. Warrior. They are half-brothers by virtue of their common father, A. P. Indy. And they are inbred on their maternal side, both with broodmare sire Quiet American. Cara Rafaela, a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of Bernardini. Warrior Queen, also a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of A. P. Warrior. In a manner of speaking, Bernardini and A. P. Warrior are three-quarter brothers, and both possess excellent aptitude for the classics. Update 1 Thomas Albertrani trains horses for Darley Stables, the U. S. based arm of world renowned Godolphin Racing, Inc. Although Discreet Cat is the up and coming star of Godolphin, Bernardini is a formiddable talent in his own right. The Grade 3 Withers was the final graded stakes for 3-year-olds prior to the Kentucky Derby, and it drew a short field of four including Bernardini, Doc Cheny (Nick Zito), Rob'em Blind (Gary Contessa), and the favorite Luxembourg (Richard Dutrow, Jr.). Bernardini was coming in off a scintillating maiden allowance victory at Gulfsteam Park which he won ridden out in 1:35.4. The Withers was only the third overall start for Bernardini, the first being a fourth place finish to the fleet Exclusive Quality. In the Withers, Bernardini sat pretty off the pace setter Luxembourg and moved by at will, coasting to victory in 1:35.1 for the one mile. Generally, A. P. Indy progeny are excellent at the classic distances, but Pimlico with its speed bias is a strange beast and it remains to be seen how Bernardini will handle the course. All indications are the up and coming young colt is going to be one of the main contenders in the Preakness. DOSAGE INDEX 1.40. Notebook, now deceased, is the sire of Hemingway's Key, and did his absolute best running at one mile. Notebook sired 44 stakes winners, including the filly Spoken Fur (winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in 2003) and the superior sprinter Delaware Township. Notebook is the son of Well Decorated, and represents one of the last successful lines of the Bold Ruler sires. Island Whirl is the broodmare sire of Hemingway's Key, and Island Whirl injects a blend of speed and stamina into the pedigree. Island Whirl won four graded stakes in 1982-1983, including the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Handicap at 1 ¼miles and the Grade 2 Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs. With regard to earnings, Island Whirl is a reasonable but not an elite stallion. The Hemingway's Key pedigree could be a limiting factor for distances at which he can expect to excel. Hemingway's Key has six overall starts and he has not come close to the winner's circle, except when being led back to the paddock, since he won a first-level allowance at Calder in December of 2005. Nick Zito has entered Hemingway's Key, consecutively, in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the Grade 2 Lane's End, and the Grade 2 Lexington. In those four graded stakes affairs, Hemingway's Key managed to finish ahead of just 11 of 40 horses. His Beyers were decidedly average and his best finish was sixth in the Lane's End. Hemingway's Key will probably do well in lesser quality stakes, and in Nick Zito's home base of New York. As far as the Preakness is concerned, the numbers just do not add up for the son of Notebook. DOSAGE INDEX 2.25. Artax is the sire of Diabolical. Artax was a terror on the race track from 1997 through 1999, winning no less than six graded stakes and placing in the money in another six. Ten of these twelve events were sprints at six or seven furlongs. Two critical sire lines in the pedigree of Artax are the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line and the Vice Regent line, and herein lies the source of Artax's great sprinting ability. Mr. Prospector is certainly one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as well as classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. Bonnie Byerly is the dam of Diabolical. Bonnie Byerly's sire Dayjur is famous for dominating the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint only to lose to the filly Safely Kept in the final yards after jumping his own shadow. Dayjur injects even more sprinting aptitude into the pedigree of Diabolical. Diabolical is being brought along nicely by trainer Steve Kleasaris. In eight overall starts Diabolical has registered two wins, four seconds, and one third. His only out-of-the-money finish was a fourth in the Grade 3 Palm Beach (Gulfstream) on the grass. In his only other turf race Diabolical finished second to none other than Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro in the Laurel Futurity. Diabolical has excelled on the dirt. He won his debut easily, a 5 ½ panel dash at Belmont Park in July 2005. He then finished second in a pair of stakes at Monmouth, including the Grade 3 Sapling (won by He's Got Grit). In late October 2005 Diabolical got his first taste of big time racing in the one mile Grade 3 Nashua at Belmont Park, finishing a respectable third to Bluegrass Cat after setting all the early fractions. Diabolical was running to his pedigree, utilizing his superior speed for all it was worth. After the Laurel Futurity in November 2005 Diabolical was freshened for his sophomore campaign and made his 3-year-old debut in the Palm Beach on the grass, finishing fourth. Klesaris then focused Diabolical's campaign back to dirt racing, as Diabolical dueled with the talented Exclusive Quality in the Spectacular Bid sprint at Gulfstream, and finished a hard fought second to Exclusive Quality, stopping the clock in a scintillating 1:15.9 for the 6 ½ furlongs. Diabolical's eighth and most recent race was a one mile first-level allowance at Delaware Park which he simply dominated without breaking a sweat. The Preakness is going to be a far cry from that Delaware allowance, though, and although Diabolical is very fast and "speed kills," Diabolical is not the only one in possession of lethal speed. Jusk ask the connections of Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, Like Now, and Bernardini. Diabolical is in deep, but the same can be said for every horse in the 131st Preakness. GREELEY'S LEGACY DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Greeley's Legacy is sired by Mr. Greeley, a descendant of the prodigious and successful Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native sire line. Mr. Greeley was at his very best from seven furlongs to one mile. In 1995 he won two Grade 3 events at seven panels, the Lafayette and the Swale. Also in 1995 Mr. Greeley finished second in the one mile Grade 2 Jerome Handicap. To illustrate his versatility at distances up to a mile, we point out that Mr. Greeley ran second in the six furlong Breeders Cup Sprint (1995) behind Desert Stormer. Mr. Greeley's Dosage Index of 4.85 is a good indicator of the distance limitations he passed on to his son Greeley's Legacy. The dam of Greeley's Legacy is Deceit Princess, a daughter of Vice Regent out of Deceit. Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, places Vice Regent in the "Balanced Speed" category (for sires), the third of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Vice Regent also injects turf aptitude into the pedigree of Greeley's Legacy. The pedigree of Greeley's Legacy suggests he is not suited to the distance requirements for the Triple Crown races, although the speed favoring Pimlico main course would even out the playing field to some extent. Greeley's Legacy has eleven overall starts, and the most recent three were all graded stakes: The Gotham (won by Like Now), the Wood (won by Bob And John) , and the Lexington (won by Showing Up). Although Greeley's Legacy finished a well beaten seventh in the Wood, the track was sloppy and the race can be tossed. The Gotham and Lexington were more promising, with a fourth place finish in each. In the Gotham Greeley's Legacy was never far back and closed on the rail to gain fourth, beaten only a length and a quarter by Like Now, with Keyed Entry and Sweetnorthernsaint sandwiched in between in second and third. The Gotham was the best race Greeley's Legacy has run to-date. In the Lexington, he broke from the tenth post position and stalked the leaders five wide, a tough proposition on the speed favoring Keeneland course, and flattened out in the stretch finishing fourth, beaten 4 ½ lengths by Showing Up. Like Now finished second and long shot Bear Character finished third. Finishing behind Bear Character in the Lexington is nothing to brag about, and Greeley's Legacy has never pretended to be a great horse. It took him six tries to graduate the maiden ranks, and even then he had to work hard to get the win. He did win an allowance optional claiming event at 1 1/16 miles on the Aqueduct inner dirt, a race more suited to his style and class than the graded stakes he has started in. The Preakness is loaded with front running talent, and in fact the front runners are the best horses in the field. This is very bad news for a patient stalker like Greeley's Legacy, because the speed has the look of holding up. Looking at the glass as half full, it will have been 28 days since Greeley's Legacy last raced, and he should be well prepared and well rested if his connections opt to run him in the Preakness. PLATINUM COUPLE DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Platinum Couple is a New York bred sired by Tale Of The Cat, a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat is one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners and counting. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Platinum Couple is inbred in the fifth generation on both sides to Northern Dancer, cementing the speed component of Platinum Couple's aptitude. Tale Of The Cat, Platinum Couple's sire, was himself a talented sprinter and was graded stakes placed in four races from 1997-1998, three of them at seven furlongs including a third to Affirmed Success in the 1998 Vosburgh. Yarn, the dam of Platinum Couple, is a daughter of Mr. Prospector, injecting even more speed into Platinum Couple's pedigree. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. In nine lifetime starts Platinum Couple has managed only two wins, both in New York State bred competition, and both as a Juvenile. One win came in a maiden allowance and the other in the Damon Runyon, a stakes for state breds. Platinum Couple spent the early months of his 3-year-old campaign chasing another better know New York bred, Achilles Of Troy. Platinum Couple was no match, finishing third and fourth in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway, a combined 30 lengths behind Achilles Of Troy, winner of both events. Following the Whirlaway, Platinum Couple managed a second in a state bred optional claimer and then went on to the Wood at Aqueduct. The Aqueduct track was sloppy for the Wood and Platinum Couple looked to capitalize on his speed but raced far back early, managing to close to fifth, beaten 10 ½ lengths by the Bob And John. All indications are Platinum Couple would be heavily outclassed in the 131st Preakness. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here
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