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Friday May 2, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com 
Jim Lambert Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Finding Hidden Meaning In The Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings List It's always been my nature to question conventional wisdom in life (and in horse racing). As the 134th Kentucky Derby in history dawns upon us, I've decided to focus my suspicion on the Graded Earnings list. As you probably know, the Kentucky Derby field is limited to a maximum of twenty, and the Derby is usually oversubscribed. The Graded Earnings list is the final arbiter in determining who gets in and who doesn't. Graded earnings are monies won in a graded stakes race. There are three levels of graded stakes (1, 2 and 3) with Grade 1 representing the highest level (quality) of graded stakes race. Let me repeat myself. Here are the essential complaints: 1. Graded earnings as a juvenile count equally as do graded earnings as a 3-year-old. 2. Graded earnings of fillies earned against other fillies counts the same as graded earnings by colts earned against colts. 3. Graded earnings on Polytrack (or Cushion Track) count equally as do graded earnings on conventional dirt. These are all valid points and I agree with all three in principle. A horse like Anak Nakal earned most of his money as a juvenile. But now Anak Nakal is not nearly as competitive as the best horses in the division. And the mere presence of Anak Nakal in the Derby may keep out another horse who is almost certainly more deserving (like Denis Of Cork who drew in only because Behindatthebar opted out). The same goes for fillies. A filly can certainly win the Kentucky Derby. There have been three in history. Regret (1915), Genuine Risk (1980) and Winning Colors (1988) are the femme fatales who have done the deed. If a filly is beating up on other fillies in graded stakes, those monies are counted towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. But clearly there are colts who could manhandle these same fields, but they are not eligible to race in stakes restricted to fillies. This is a double standard. As I recall, Winning Colors defeated males in the (1988) Santa Anita Derby. She won the Santa Anita Derby against males and those earnings are the kind that should count towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. Eight Belles carries the flag for the tender gender in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Synthetic tracks create a whole new set of headaches. Horsemen are finally realizing that a colt that excels on conventional dirt may not run a lick on Polytrack (just ask Steve Asmussen about that colt, what's his name, oh yeah, Pyro). The converse can be true as well. When Cowboy Cal ran up the track in his maiden debut on dirt, trainer Todd Pletcher switched the colt to grass and Cowboy Cal immediately responded with a three race winning streak. Cowboy Cal would go on to finish a strong second (to Monba) in the Grade 1 Blue Grass on Polytrack. Horses that excel on turf often carry their form to synthetic tracks (and vice versa). The point is why do we assign graded stakes earnings from Polytrack to a horse that is essentially unproven on conventional dirt? And why do we count graded earnings by a filly if it was earned in races restricted to other fillies? And why do we give equal weight to graded monies earned as a juvenile as opposed to graded earnings as a 3-year-old? Graded Earnings Handicapping Insights With that in mind, let's take a look at the standard graded stakes earnings rankings for the Kentucky Derby. You can find this list on any of a number of horse racing sites. They all look pretty much the same, with minor differences (usually when horses doubtful for the Derby are excluded). Maybe we can use our insights for a handicapping advantage in this year's Kentucky Derby. Graded Stakes Earnings List (Racing Through 04/28/08)
This list as I've broken it down is very revealing. Only 7 of the 36 ranked horses have graded earnings on conventional dirt and on another surface (grass or synthetic). These seven are Proud Spell, Gayego, Behindatthebar, Visionaire, Halo Najib, Indian Sun and Racecar Rhapsody. All 29 of the other horses have all their graded earnings in a single category (dirt or turf/synthetic). What we're looking for is a conventional dirt specialist (because the Derby is always run on dirt). So let's sort the rankings on Conventional Dirt Graded Earnings instead of Overall Graded Earnings. We will throw out a horse if he doesn't have any graded earnings at all on conventional dirt. Here is our new graded earnings list. Graded Stakes Earnings List On Conventional Dirt (Racing Through 04/28/08)
What a revelation. Gone is Colonel
John. Gone is Cowboy Cal. Gone is Salute The Sarge. Our
new top five earners are Pyro, Proud Spell (filly), Tale Of Ekati, Gayego
and Big Brown. The top five earners in the original list are Pyro,
Proud Spell (filly), Tale Of Ekati, Colonel John and Gayego. Big
Brown is the 6th top earner overall and 4th top earner (in a tie with Gayego)
on dirt. Colonel John is the 4th top earner overall and has
not earned a dollar on dirt. My feeling is the Kentucky Derby winner
will probably have graded earnings on conventional dirt (going in to the
Derby). Then again I believe in four-day work weeks and six weeks vacation every year. And I also believe you should be prepared for the 2008 Preakness and Belmont. So come join in the fun. The Information and order link is below.
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