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Tuesday May 13, 2008
The HRH Racing Digest A Free Newsletter From Horse-Race-Handicapping.com 
Jim Lambert Founder Horse-Race-Handicapping.com The Preakness Is Next On The Triple Crown Docket And Final Thoughts On The Kentucky Derby Who Will Take On Big Brown In The Second Jewel? Big Brown was so dominating in the Kentucky Derby that finding challengers for the Preakness looked at first to be a difficult task. Now they're coming out of the woodwork to take on the champ. With the withdrawal of Derby fifth-place finisher Recapturetheglory, it looked as if Big Brown would be the first horse since Citation (1948) to face a Preakness field void of any horses that also participated in the Kentucky Derby. But Gayego joined the growing list of probables on Monday and he will be flying into Baltimore on Wednesday. Gayego will in all likelihood be the only Derby horse to take on Big Brown. A host of horses that did not participate in the Derby are also lining up to take a shot at the Derby winner. The Daily Racing Form reports there are are nine horses that skipped the Derby (due to insufficient graded earnings or other reasons) but are likely to be confirmed as running in the Preakness. Among that contingent are Kentucky Bear, Yankee Bravo, Behindatthebar, Giant Moon, Stevil, Tres Borrachos, Racecar Rhapsody, Hey Byrn and Icabad Crane. Kentucky Bear finished third in the Blue Grass and Stevil was fourth in the Blue Grass. Yankee Bravo finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Tres Borrachos was third in the Arkansas Derby. Behindatthebar won the Lexington and Racecar Rhapsody was fourth in the Lexington. Giant Moon was fourth in the Wood Memorial. Hey Byrn is the winner of the Holy Bull. Icabad Crane is the winner of the Federico Tesio at Pimlico. An additional three horses that skipped the Derby were reported as possible for the Preakness. They are Harlem Rocker, Macho Again and Riley Tucker, but Withers winner Harlem Rocker will instead be pointed to the Queen's Plate at Woodbine in June. The connections of Derby Trial winner Macho Again have been back and forth on whether or not to run, and now it's all systems go. Riley Tucker finished third in the Lexington on the Keeneland Polytrack. El Gato Malo had been under consideration (for the Preakness) but ran instead in the Lone Star Derby. El Gato Malo overtook Leonides and Samba Rooster in deep stretch to win the Lone Star Derby, Saturday, May 10. Prior to the Lone Star Derby, El Gato Malo finished fifth in the Santa Anita Derby. The Derby third and fourth-place finishers Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati are looking at the Belmont. And Derby seventh-place finisher Anak Nakal is another Belmont candidate. Plans are on hold for Colonel John. The Preakness will be televised by NBC. Post time is set for 6:15 pm EDT. Entries will be drawn late Wednesday. Final Thoughts On The Kentucky Derby The 2008 Kentucky Derby results shed a bright light on the synthetic-versus-dirt controversy. It is best illuminated by the graded earnings on each surface. So let's take a look back in the rear view mirror before the Derby fades from sight. Here is a final look at the standard graded stakes earnings rankings for the Kentucky Derby participants (as they were before the Derby). For comparison, we'll include the Kentucky Derby finish for each participant. Graded Stakes Earnings List (Before The Kentucky Derby)
Overall graded earnings does not look like a good predictor of how a horse is going to run in the Kentucky Derby. These numbers are all over the place. Pyro (the top earner) finished eighth. The ill-fated Eight Belles, 15th on the earnings list, finished second. Denis Of Cork finished third and he was the lowest earner (of course he missed a prep because he was mismanaged). Gayego is the fourth leading earner and he finished 17th in the Derby. The winner Big Brown is fifth on the list (with only a single prep). I wrote this before the Kentucky Derby: "What we're looking for is a conventional dirt specialist (because the Derby is always run on dirt)." Now let's sort the rankings on Conventional Dirt Graded Earnings instead of Overall Graded Earnings. Here is our new graded earnings list. Graded Stakes Earnings List On Conventional Dirt (Before The Kentucky Derby)
This chart makes more sense to me. The
average finish of the five horses with zero graded earnings on
conventional dirt is a very poor 14th (including the last two finishers
Adriano and Monba). The average finish of the top five earners on
dirt is roughly 9th. That particular stat is weighed down by Gayego's 17th place finish, but Gayego is essentially a synthetic track
specialist. If we take the top three earners with zero earnings
on synthetic/turf (Pyro, Tale Of Ekati and Big Brown) their average
finish is a robust fourth (actually 4.33). Similarly, if we take the
top three earners with
zero earnings on dirt
(Colonel John, Monba and Adriano) their average finish is a miserable 15th
(including the last and next-to-last finishers). That's a pretty
dramatic illustration of the need to be a specialist on conventional dirt
(to perform well in the Derby).
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