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Update 3 Sunriver was the odd man out on the first Saturday in May, ranking twenty-first on the list of graded stakes earnings among Triple Crown nominees. Flashy Bull drew in as the twentieth ranked earner and finished an uninspiring fourteenth in the Kentucky Derby, beaten a country mile. Meanwhile, Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Barbaro pummeled the entire field in a dominating performance. Barbaro's Derby victory served to flatter Sunriver. Sunriver, you remember, was caught wide the entire going in the Florida Derby, and still managed to finish third only 3 ½ lengths behind the winner Barbaro. Todd Pletcher is as good if not better than any trainer in the country at keeping a good horse on top of his game and Sunriver proved this once again in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont, Saturday, May 20. Sunriver angled out early on leaving the chute, advanced determinedly four wide on the far turn, and commenced a powerful rally under heavy pressure from Raphael Bejarano when straightened for the drive, reaching and passing Lewis Michael in the final yards. Sunriver stopped the clock for the 1 1/8 miles of the Peter Pan in a very professional 149.4 seconds in this his seventh overall start. Sunriver bested Lewis Michael by a neck and Strong Contender by a little more than 3 ¼ lengths, and Sunriver closed out the final three furlongs in 36.2 seconds, averaging just over six seconds per sixteenth of a mile. The Peter Pan was worth $120,000 to the connections of Sunriver, a nice consolation for missing the Derby cut, and the Peter Pan should serve as an ideal prep for the Belmont Stakes. Update 2 Sunriver faced off with Barbaro in the Florida Derby, April 1, at Gulfstream Park, but the anticipated duel never developed. While Barbaro ran the race of his life, and upstart Sharp Humor battled Barbaro courageously down the entire length of the stretch, Sunriver was constantly caught wide going into and out of turns, but managed to rally for a hard fought third place finish. The prize winnings for the third place finisher in the 2006 Florida Derby are $100,000, a good payday, but probably not good enough to keep Sunriver in the top 20 of graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Todd Pletcher will have to bite the bullet and enter Sunriver in another Derby prep if he feels his colt can muster up to the challenge. Barbaro won the Florida Derby in a very good time of 1:49.01, and Sunriver finished only 3 ½ lengths shy of the winner, this while taking several detours on route to the finish line. Judging from Pletcher's post race comments, he is pleased with the progress of Sunriver, and we may or may not see him in an upcoming prep. Update 1 Trained by Todd Pletcher, Sunriver quietly recorded a winning time four-fifths of a second faster then the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth unofficial winner Corinthian did on the same day. Three hours before the field went to post for the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park Saturday, March 4, Sunriver and four others took part in a first-level allowance at the identical distance of one and one-eighth miles. Sent off as the 2-to-1 second choice behind odds-on favorite Superfly (Nick Zito), Sunriver chased the pace three wide, moved up smartly on the backstretch, took the lead nearing the quarter pole and went on to victory. Granted the competition was not the level of the Fountain of Youth but there is no denying the fast winning time recorded by Sunriver. This was the fifth overall start for Sunriver, and with no lifetime graded stakes earnings, Todd Pletcher has entered Sunriver in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, April 1. There he will face the undefeated Barbaro. DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Point Determined is sired by Point Given, a son of Thunder Gulch. The sire line of Point Given is Raise A Native. The sire of Update 2 Point Determined punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a determined runner-up finish to probable Derby favorite Brother Derek in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Although Point Determined finished within 3 ¼ lengths of Brother Derek, onlookers had the impression the margin could have been as big as Brother Derek's jockey Alex Solis wanted it to be. Brother Derek set every fraction and threw a 24 second quarter at the field from the six furlong mark to the one mile mark, and it was all over but for the shouting. The final time of the race for the winner was an impressive 1:48 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. With only six lifetime starts now, Point Determined is still eligible to improve by the first Saturday in May, but he is going to have to come a long way to get past his nemesis Brother Derek. Point Determined has five lifetime starts, three of them in 2006. The most recent was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Saturday, March 18. The San Felipe marked the return to championship form of the talented A. P. Warrior, but Point Determined challenged for the win in deep stretch, eventually settling for a hard fought second, one-half length back of the winner (A. P. Warrior). I witnessed the San Felipe and was impressed with the fighting spirit of Point Determined. With his first graded stakes earnings safely in his pocket, Point Determined is officially on the Derby trail. Next up for Point Determined is the Santa Anita Derby, April 8, at Santa Anita Park. The Santa Anita Derby is going to be a premier Kentucky Derby prep in 2006, hosting the talented Brother Derek, A. P. Warrior, and Point Determined. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Bob And John is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire line of The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Bob And John's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a nondescript figure and not what you would like to see for a classic contender. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Update 3 Bob And John was exposed in the Derby as a colt unprepared to take on a classic field at a classic distance. That is not to say Bob And John is capable of a swift turn of foot good enough to dominate stakes level competition. But he is in the midst of a challenging Triple Crown campaign and the reality is beginning to dawn on Bob Baffert (trainer) and Stonerside Stable (owner). In the Kentucky Derby, Bob And John broke forwardly from the seventh post position under careful handling from rider Garret Gomez but simply was not up to the task. He got the first three-quarters in about 1:13.3 (already back to 16th), and closed out the last half mile in roughly 54.3, finishing a thoroughly beaten 17th of 20. Bob And John would certainly improve at Belmont off his Derby performance, but not enough to figure prominently in the outcome. Update 2 No one can blame Bob And John for the Saturday morning showers that drenched the outer dirt course at Aqueduct, Saturday, April 8. Bob And John took the trip to New York from California to show the best of the East Coast his "A" game, and that's exactly what he did in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, sloppy track and all. Bob And John seemed to relish the off going as he sped effortlessly to the outside of the early leaders Keyed Entry and Marco's Tale, and commenced to hounding Keyed Entry all the way to the middle of the far turn, shaking loose of the rest of the field in the process. Rider Garrett Gomez asked for run from Bob And John in early stretch, and Bob And John responded and wore down Keyed Entry late, finishing with good energy to hold off the late closing Jazil for the victory. The final time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, in the slop, was 1:51.40. Bob And John got the final furlong in 14 seconds flat, not a strong figure, but good enough for the win. What are the implications of the victory? First and foremost, Bob And John earns $450,000 in graded stakes prize money to add on to the $140,370 he previously earned. That, in a nutshell, punches his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Second, the manner in which Bob And John fought and faced down Keyed Entry, Deputy Glitters, My Golden Song, and Greeley's Galaxy, and then held off the late charging Jazil, is a testimony to his talent, courage, and the preparation he received from handler Bob Baffert. Third, unless the track at Churchill Downs comes up sloppy on May 6, there is not much to project from his performance in the Wood to his anticipated performance in the Kentucky Derby. That is the nature of racing, but Bob And John is heading to Louisville, and getting there is half the battle. Update 1 Bob And John is trained by Bob Baffert, no stranger to the Kentucky Derby spotlight. It is worth mentioning that Bob Baffert has been amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Bob And John has been successful almost from the beginning, with three wins, one place, and two shows in seven starts heading into the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, at Santa Anita Park. We'll get back to the San Felipe in a moment. Bob And John has raced exclusively at the three major Southern California tracks, Del Mar, Hollywood Park, and Santa Anita. In just the second start of his inaugural campaign Bob And John served notice he was a talent to be reckoned with, ridden out in victory after toying with a maiden allowance field at Del Mar. Two months later, Bob And John met A. P. Warrior and Da Stoops in a talent laden first-level allowance, a two-turn mile, finishing second four lengths shy of the winner A. P. Warrior and a neck in front of stable mate Da Stoops. In the Real Quiet, three weeks later at Hollywood, Bob And John apparently won but was disqualified in a ridiculous steward's ruling and placed second behind the unofficial second place finisher Genre. Bob And John came in slightly exiting the far turn, momentarily impeding Genre, who was already beginning to back up and would eventually finish six lengths to the worse of Bob And John. In December, Bob And John met Kentucky Derby aspirant Brother Derek for the first time in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park. It was in the Futurity that Brother Derek stamped his name at the top of the short list of West Coast Derby hopefuls, while Bob And John was relegated to a quiet third place finish, beaten five lengths, but getting his first taste of graded stakes earnings. After reasserting himself by clearing first-level allowance conditions in January 2006, his 3-year-old debut, Bob And John turned his attention to the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, where rival Brother Derek was noticeably absent. Bob And John routed a questionable Sham field, nonetheless recording a healthy speed figure, and moved on to the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, also at Santa Anita. Now we can get back to the San Felipe. Bob And John received favoritism from the betting public, but failed to menace as he seemed one-paced the entire going, eventually working his way to a third place finish, but soundly beaten by the top two finishers, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here DOSAGE INDEX 3.31. Bernardini is a son of the topflight sire A. P. Indy. A. P. Indy progeny win an outstanding 15% of open stakes at the classic distances. A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. A. P. Indy was the #1 North American sire of SW (Stakes Winners) in 2004. A. P. Indy was the North American leading sire of 2003. Some of the illustrious sons & daughters of A. P. Indy are A. P. Warrior, Teammate, Sweet Symphony, Congrats, Mineshaft, Suave, Aptitude, Seeking the Glory, and Sweet Symphony. Bernardini is a very close relation to A. P. Warrior. They are half-brothers by virtue of their common father, A. P. Indy. And they are inbred on their maternal side, both with broodmare sire Quiet American. Cara Rafaela, a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of Bernardini. Warrior Queen, also a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of A. P. Warrior. In a manner of speaking, Bernardini and A. P. Warrior are three-quarter brothers, and both possess excellent aptitude for the classics. Update 2 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro broke through the starting gate and was quickly gathered in by Edgar Prado, but something was wrong and soon after the start of the Preakness Barbaro was pulled up to the gasps of onlookers. The race must go on and Like Now set the early pace, with Sweetnorthernsaint tight on his outside flank and Brother Derek three wide in excellent stalking position. Meanwhile Sweetnorthernsaint took the lead from Like Now, and Bernardini launched a well timed and powerful rally to Brother Derek's outside. Brother Derek began to fade and it was down to Bernardini and Sweetnorthernsaint. Bernardini swooped by Sweetnorthernsaint nearing the eighth pole and it was all over but the shouting. Sweetnorthernsaint continued on for a clear second, and long shot Hemingway's Key got up for third ahead of Brother Derek. Bernardini's performance was extraordinary in that it was only his fourth lifetime start. It is also true that everything went his way in the Preakness. At the three-quarter mile mark Bernardini sat cool in fourth place, four lengths back, and Bernardini got the three-quarters in 1:11 flat compared to 1:10.2 for the pacesetter Like Now. It was at this point that Bernardini launched the winning move, taking the lead for good in upper stretch. Bernardini stopped the clock for the 1 3/16 miles of the Preakness in 1:54.7 seconds. Bernardini averaged 6.24 seconds per sixteenth of a mile from the three-quarters mark to the end of the race. This is a fine figure, but it was earned on the speed favoring Pimlico main course and one has to take it with a grain of salt when sizing up Bernardini's chances for the Belmont Stakes June 10. Update 1 Thomas Albertrani trains horses for Darley Stables, the U. S. based arm of world renowned Godolphin Racing, Inc. Although Discreet Cat is the up and coming star of Godolphin, Bernardini is a formidable talent in his own right. The Grade 3 Withers was the final graded stakes for 3-year-olds prior to the Kentucky Derby, and it drew a short field of four including Bernardini, Doc Cheny (Nick Zito), Rob'em Blind (Gary Contessa), and the favorite Luxembourg (Richard Dutrow, Jr.). Bernardini was coming in off a scintillating maiden allowance victory at Gulfsteam Park which he won ridden out in 1:35.4. The Withers was only the third overall start for Bernardini, the first being a fourth place finish to the fleet Exclusive Quality. In the Withers, Bernardini sat pretty off the pace setter Luxembourg and moved by at will, coasting to victory in 1:35.1 for the one mile. Generally, A. P. Indy progeny are excellent at the classic distances, but Pimlico with its speed bias is a strange beast and it remains to be seen how Bernardini will handle the course. All indications are the up and coming young colt is going to be one of the main contenders in the Preakness. JAZIL DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Jazil is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire of Mr. Prospector is Raise A Native. The sire of Jazil's dam Better Than Honour is Deputy Minister, and the sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Jazil is one of five grandsons of Deputy Minister maneuvering for a berth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, the others being Bob And John, Red Raymond, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Jazil is a half-brother to Bob And John, recent winner of the 2006 Wood Memorial. Deputy Commander, a son of Deputy Minister, is among the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005. He is the sire of Deputy Glitters, upset victor of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 18. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. Northern Dancer represents the sire line of Jazil's damsire Better Than Honour, and Northern Dancer also represents the sire line of Storm Cat, one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. CHURCHILL DOWNS & BELMONT PARK MEETS OPEN & Jazil's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a routine figure and not exceptional. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Jazil's maternal granddam is Blush With Pride, owner of an outstanding Dosage Index of 1.71. Blush With Pride won four graded stakes in her time, including the 1982 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Grade 1 Santa Susana Stakes. The pedigree of Blush With Pride is rich with stamina and provides a formidable balance of stamina and speed to the overall pedigree of Jazil, distinguishing Jazil from his half-brother Bob And John. Update 2 Jazil's Kentucky Derby chart recap went something like: " . . . raced unhurried early on . . . saved ground while rallying on the far turn . . . angled out four wide to make a serious bid in upper stretch . . . and failed to sustain his effort." Usually a Jazil chart recap ends with " . . . finished fast on the outside . . ." Jazil closed out the final half-mile of the Derby in 50.3 seconds, a very fast finish considering the traffic congestion he faced early on, and considering the winner Barbaro registered a final half in 50.4 after suffering very few "road hazards." Of course, the counter-argument is Barbaro used his considerable speed and talent to eliminate traffic problems before they had a chance to occur. What does all this have to do with Jazil's chances in the Belmont, June 10? It means Jazil is going to be a serious threat in the 1 ½ mile Belmont and it also means the more chance of a serious pace being sent, the more chance for a Jazil victory. Update 1 Jazil is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, one time assistant to D. Wayne Lukas, and the U.S. trainer for Darley Stables, the North American arm of Godolphin Stables, Inc. McLaughlin knew he had something special when Jazil closed from 18 lengths off the pace to get within a nose of the winner Steppenwolfer in a seven furlong maiden allowance at Aqueduct in November of 2005. A common refrain began appearing in the comment line of the Daily Racing Form for a Jazil race: "fast finish outside." After the November near miss, Jazil defeated a maiden allowance field, this time at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct in a race transferred to the outer dirt course from the turf. Jazil's next race was four months later, his 2006 debut, back on the dirt again in a first-level allowance route of ground at Gulfstream Park. Jazil faced off with up-and-comers Corinthian and High Blues, racing closer to the pace this time, taking the lead in the stretch, and finishing second after being outfinished by Corinthian. A month later Jazil got his first taste of graded stakes competition in the Fountain of Youth, a prep for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. In the Fountain of Youth, Jazil's late run never materialized, and Jazil finished seventh beaten 7 ¼ lengths by the unofficial winner Corinthian. With a very good colt on his hands and no graded stakes earnings, McLaughlin pointed Jazil towards the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. On the morning of the Wood, Saturday, April 8, the connections of Jazil must have been discouraged by the persistent showers that rendered the track sloppy, but if Jazil was to earn any graded stakes prize money he simply had to run. A deeep closer, Jazil was placed at an immediate disadvantage on the sloppy surface, and true to form he broke well back of the leaders, 13 ½ lengths back at the quarter-mile marker, and then he commenced his rally, determined, ground saving, and by mid-stretch he had pulled to within 7 lengths of the leader Bob And John, and when Bob And John crossed the wire Jazil had closed the gap to 1 ½ lengths. From the Daily Racing Form chart recap of the Wood: " Jazil ... rallied ... angled outside ... was coming outside fast at the finish." Perhaps it was McLaughlin's expert preparation and patience, perhaps it was the the influence of stamina and turf aptitude (turf aptitude often translates to off track performance), perhaps it was the three-way pace duel between Keyed Entry, Marco's Tale and Bob And John, or perhaps it was all of the above, but Jazil put together a rousing rally that carried him from the cheap seats all the way to a second place finish in the Wood, only 1 ½ lengths shy of the winner Bob And John. As a result Jazil earned his connections $150,000 in graded stakes prize money, and a possible ticket to the Kentucky Derby on May 6. Lightly raced with six overall starts, and fresh off his Wood performance, Jazil could well be peaking at the perfect moment in time, and he may be the best alternative to Brother Derek in the Derby. LEWIS MICHAEL DOSAGE INDEX 2.13. The sire of Lewis Michael is Rahy, winner of the one mile Grade 2 Bel Air Handicap in 1989. Rahy is a highly successful stallion, having sired ten millionaires including Fantastic Light, Serena's Song, Hawksley Hill, and Tranquillity Lake. Fantastic Light is a two-time World Champion, winner of six Grade 1 events, and record breaking Breeders Cup Turf winner. Rahy is a superb progenitor of turf aptitude. Rahy is also the broodmare sire of the 2000 European champion Giant's Causeway. The broodmare sire of Lewis Michael is Broad Brush. Broad Brush, also the broodmare sire of Point Determined, was the leading North America sire of 1994, and he sired Concern, winner of the 1994 Breeders Cup Classic. Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, recently made Broad Brush a "Chef-de-Race" with an Intermediate-Classic designation, meaning he ranks among the better North American sires. The legendary Turn-To appears three times in the 5th generation of Lewis Michael's pedigree. This means Turn-To alone is responsible for nearly 10% of the pedigree of Lewis Michael. The Turn-To sire line instills superior stamina aptitude. Lewis Michael looks to be bred ideally for the longer distances, such as the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes. The connections of Lewis Michael opted out of the May 20 Preakness Stakes and elected to run in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, also on Saturday, May 20. The Peter Pan is traditionally a stepping stone to the Belmont Stakes for horses that skip the Preakness. The Peter Pan has produced five Belmont winners: Coastal (1979), Danzig Connection (1986), A. P. Indy (1992), Colonial Affair (1993), and Lemon Drop Kid (1999). Lewis Michael is headed to the Belmont after his fine performance in the Peter Pan. Lewis Michael finished second to Sunriver, beaten only in the final strides after setting the fractions for the half (48), three-quarters (1:12.6), and mile (1:37.2). Lewis Michael closed out the final three furlongs in 36.8 seconds, compared to 36.2 seconds for the winner Sunriver. The winning margin for Sunriver over Lewis Michael was officially a neck, with Strong Contender (third in Toyota Blue Grass) third another 3 ¼ lengths back. Lewis Michael now has eight overall starts, and he has now proven his mettle against top competition. Lewis Michael belongs in the Belmont and he is bred to run at the Belmont distance. Lewis Michael is not a great horse, and he will need the race of his life to beat the talented closers Steppenwolfer and Jazil, as well as Sunriver and others. But he has proven he belongs. The Preakness would be the eighth overall start for Lewis Michael, and his handler Wayne Catalano is a "big fish in a small pond" at the Illinois tracks Hawthorne and Arlington Park, handling many horses for owner-breeder Frank Calabrese. Five of the seven starts for Lewis Michael have been on turf in order to capitalize on his superior turf breeding, and Lewis Michael has not disappointed, finishing third in the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby (Calder) and winning the Grand Canyon Handicap (Churchill Downs). The races on dirt for Lewis Michael include his debut, a maiden allowance win at Arlington Park at one mile, and more recently a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby (won by Sweetnorthernsaint). In the Illinois Derby, Lewis Michael stayed back early, made a brief move to reach contention in upper stretch, and eventually flattened out in the stretch to finish some twelve lengths back of the winner. Lewis Michael brings his patient running style to a Preakness loaded with front runners, and that will be his advantage. On the other hand, many of the front runners are blessed with superior speed that will endear them to the Pimlico course, and that could spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Lewis Michael. He is, though, a very interesting exotics candidate. STEPPENWOLFER DOSAGE INDEX 1.46. Steppenwolfer Steppenwolfer's performance in the Kentucky Derby, his ninth lifetime start, was admirable to be certain. Breaking from the second post, Steppenwolfer saved ground in hand, eased out three to four wide on the far turn and commenced to rally, worked his way out six wide when straightened out in the stretch to make his run, loomed a threat in the upper stretch, and failed to sustain his bid, finishing third, 8 ½ lengths beaten by the winner Barbaro and only 2 lengths behind runner-up Bluegrass Cat. Steppenwolfer used considerable energy to maintain a semblance of contact with the leaders, and still managed to close out the final half mile in 50.9 seconds. Steppenwolfer has recorded two shows and one place in three important Update 3 In the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, April 15, at Oaklawn Park, Robbie Albarado rode Steppenwolfer like his life depended on it. The stakes were high, a first or second place finish in the Arkansas Derby was needed to gain a berth in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Steppenwolfer customarily broke near the back of the pack, eleventh and about eleven lengths off the leader Lawyer Ron after the (first) quarter. Lawyer Ron wasted no time in accelerating to the lead, laying down the gauntlet early, and Steppenwolfer needed to respond. He did. Albarado began urging the gray/roan son of Aptitude almost from the get-go, and Steppenwolfer accepted the challenge. As Lawyer Ron polished off a sizzling (third) quarter to get six furlongs in 1:10 and 4/5, Steppenwolfer had improved to eighth, about 6 ½ lengths back of Lawyer Ron. Not to be understated, Steppenwolfer improved his position while Lawyer Ron was demoralizing the rest of the field. By the time Lawyer Ron reached the eighth pole the race was over for all intensive purposes, and Steppenwolfer kept working, now third, 3 lengths behind Private Vow and only 4 ½ lengths behind Lawyer Ron. By the time the winner crossed the wire, Steppenwolfer had put Private Vow away and remained 2 ¾ lengths shy of Lawyer Ron. A sterling performance earned Steppenwolfer $200,000 in graded stakes prize money, bringing his total graded earnings to $230,000, and that will punch his ticket to Louisville, Saturday, May 6, for the Kentucky Derby. Update 2 The weather was showery although the official track condition was fast, and Steppenwolfer overcame an outside post and a moisture laden track to finish a creditable third behind Lawyer Ron and Red Raymond in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 18. The paycheck was important for Steppenwolfer, representing his first graded stakes earnings to be applied towards the targeted Kentucky Derby berth in May. Daniel Peitz must be pleased with the progress of his big, rangy colt, and all systems are go for the next step, probably the Arkansas Derby. Arkansas native Daniel Peitz was quoted shortly before the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park: "It looks like my horse can run all day." And he is right. All eyes were on Lawyer Ron in the one mile Southwest Stakes on February 25, and Lawyer Ron did not disappoint, controlling the race from gate to wire on a resistant dirt surface. Meanwhile, the eventual second place finisher Steppenwolfer rallied from ninth to second with a prolonged, determined, one might say relentless, rally to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner at the wire. It was apparent to all who witnessed the Southwest that had the race gone another eighth of a mile, Steppenwolfer would have won. BLUEGRASS CAT DOSAGE INDEX 3.80. Bluegrass Cat is sired by Storm Cat, who ranked 11th in earnings on the 2005 North American Leading Sires list, and is one of the world's top sires. Storm Cat is also the broodmare sire of 2006 Juvenile Filly c Update 4 Bluegrass Cat ran the race of his young life in the Kentucky Derby and would it not be for a colt named Barbaro, this son of Storm Cat would have donned the necklace of roses Saturday, May 6. The Blue Grass at Keeneland was a throw out (wee see how Sinister Minister digressed in the Derby), but even so Bluegrass Cat seemed to be struggling in the "lesser" Derby preps at Tampa Bay Downs. He was upset by Deputy Glitters (finished 8th in the Derby at 60:1) in the Tampa Bay Derby, with a "thrown shoe" as the ready excuse, and then ran up the track in the Blue Grass. In the Derby it was a new Bluegrass Cat, though. He ran the first three-quarters in 1:11.4 seconds, just three lengths off the lead, and proceeded to run the final one-half mile in 51.1, averaging a swift 25.6 for the final two quarters. Bluegrass Cat crossed the wire in 2:02.5, not a winning time but a sterling effort. It is going to very difficult for Bluegrass Cat to duplicate his Derby effort in the Belmont. This is one Triple Crown race where pedigree and dosage will figure prominently because of the 1 ½ mile distance and layout of the Belmont main course. Bluegrass Cat is a son of Storm Cat and that is going to limit what he can do against the likes of the closers Steppenwolfer and Jazil, especially after battling with the pacesetters. But we have all learned not to underestimate the exploits of outstanding trainer Todd Pletcher, who is not to be underestimated. Bluegrass Cat will be a forward factor, and he will probably not win. Update 3 Sinister Minister altered in an instant the expectations of several Kentucky Derby contenders on Saturday, April 15 in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Bluegrass Cat is on that list, and after finishing fourth, more than 21 lengths to the worse of Sinister Minister, it is gut check time for Bluegrass Cat, Todd Pletcher, and the WinStar Farm. Bluegrass Cat has won four of seven overall starts, including two graded stakes victories, and he has amassed $312,980 in graded stakes earnings. The problem is the graded stakes wins were both as a juvenile, he was beaten in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby by Deputy Glitters, after purportedly throwing a shoe at a crucial moment, and there is no ready excuse in the Blue Grass. Keeneland is known for a speed bias, but a speed bias does not get you beat by 21 lengths if you are a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. The bottom line, Bluegrass Cat has earned a berth to the Derby, and he is almost certainly not good enough to win it. I Bluegrass Cat struggled to defeat Deputy Glitters (trained by Thomas Albertrani) in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February and was beaten by Deputy Glitters in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday, March 18. You could have gotten 63 to 1 on Deputy Glitters in the Sam F. Davis, and 8 to 1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bluegrass Cat is taking a circuitous route to the Kentucky Derby and needs to race on the major circuit soon, no disrespect to the good folks at Tampa Bay Downs. Todd Pletcher's Derby hopeful is doing all that has been asked of him to-date. Saturday, February 18, Bluegrass Cat set a stakes record in winning the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. He is being pointed towards the Tampa Bay Derby in March. He will probably win given his talent and propensity to ration his considerable speed effectively. If I don't sound too excited, it's just that I am cautiously reserved about the chances of Bluegrass Cat to take the Kentucky Derby. Setting a stakes record at Tampa Bay Downs is not the stuff of legend, and Cat was four-fifths off the track record. Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner, Sun King, although he has turned into a nice horse, flopped at the Derby, finishing fifteenth (ouch). Make no mistake, though, Todd Pletcher will not place Bluegrass Cat in a position where he will be an abject failure. My gut feeling is that the Cat is an exotics play at best for the first Saturday in May. HEMINGWAY'S KEY DOSAGE INDEX 1.40. Notebook, now deceased, is the sire of Hemingway's Key, and did his absolute best running at one mile. Notebook sired 44 stakes winners, including the filly Spoken Fur (winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in 2003) and the superior sprinter Delaware Township. Notebook is the son of Well Decorated, and represents one of the last successful lines of the Bold Ruler sires. Island Whirl is the broodmare sire of Hemingway's Key, and Island Whirl injects a blend of speed and stamina into the pedigree. Island Whirl won four graded stakes in 1982-1983, including the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Handicap at 1 ¼ miles and the Grade 2 Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs. With regard to earnings, Island Whirl is a reasonable but not an elite stallion. The Hemingway's Key pedigree could be a limiting factor for distances at which he can expect to excel. Hemingway's Key finished ahead of six of his eight rivals (including the regretfully injured Barbaro) in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Saturday, May 20, and considering his last four graded stakes races this result is a resounding success. It is not time to get overly excited about his Belmont chances, though. In the Preakness, Hemingway's Key was 13 lengths back at the three-quarters mark and he finished 11 ¼ lengths behind the winner Bernardini. That translates into an average of 6.3 seconds for each of the final seven-sixteenths of a mile. Considering the injury to Barbaro and the pace melt down that soon followed, the overall performance of Hemingway's Key was not that impressive. Still, it was an improvement, and Nick Zito's charges always do better in New York. Remember Andromeda's Hero storming down the Belmont stretch in the 2005 Belmont Stakes to claim a clear second behind Afleet Alex, this after a horrible Kentucky Derby. There is no way that Hemingway's Key wins the Belmont in 2006, though. I'll eat my hat if he does. Hemingway's Key has six overall starts and he has not come close to the winner's circle, except when being led back to the paddock, since he won a first-level allowance at Calder in December of 2005. Nick Zito has entered Hemingway's Key, consecutively, in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the Grade 2 Lane's End, and the Grade 2 Lexington. In those four graded stakes affairs, Hemingway's Key managed to finish ahead of just 11 of 40 horses. His Beyers were decidedly average and his best finish was sixth in the Lane's End. Hemingway's Key will probably do well in lesser quality stakes, and in Nick Zito's home base of New York. As far as the Preakness is concerned, the numbers just do not add up for the son of Notebook. DEPUTY GLITTERS DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Deputy Glitters is Deputy Commander. The sire of Deputy Commander is Vice Regent, and the sire line of Deputy Commander is Northern Dancer. The sire of Deputy Glitters' dam Glitters is Glitterman, and the sire line of Glitterman is Bold Ruler. Deputy Commander is among the world's leading second-crop, third-crop, and fourth-crop sires of 2003 through 2005. He is the sire of Grade 1 winner Ten Most Wanted and millionaire Grab Your Heart. Deputy Glitters is a half-brother to Red Raymond, another son of Deputy Commander in the 2006 Derby hunt. In North American open stakes, the progeny of Deputy Commander boast a AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 9.3 furlongs, well within the range for classic winners. On Deputy Glitters' dam side, maternal grandsire Glitterman sired four millionaires, including Balto Star, a winner of the Grade 1 United Nations Handicap and Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, and Glitter Woman, a winner of the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes. Glitterman is a complete outcross for the two most popular sire lines of modern times, Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native and Northern Dancer, and as a result was matched with several of their daughters & granddaughters. The match between Glitterman and Bon Adieu that produced Glitters, the dam of Deputy Glitters, is a prime example. The influence of Glitterman is a tendency towards speed, and Glitterman himself performed at his best in sprints, winning the Grade 3 Philadelphia Park Budweiser Breeders Cup Handicap and the Louisiana Downs Budweiser Breeders Cup Handicap, both contested at six furlongs. Update 3 Deputy Glitters finished a very respectable eighth in the Kentucky Derby. He managed to close out the final half-mile in 53.2 seconds, not particularly fast but respectable. He was forced to fan out eleven wide leaving the far turn. The bad news is Deputy Glitters was easily outrun in the Derby and was 16th of 20 after the first half-mile, almost as if he was being ridden not to be embarrassed instead of being ridden to win. The good news is Deputy Glitters comes into the Belmont off a badly needed 35 day break. The Belmont field is not as deep as the Kentucky Derby field but it is going to give Deputy Glitters fits once again because of the balance of talented front runners and closers. Update 2 As the showers began to fall in the Jamaica, New York area Saturday morning, April 8, the connections of Deputy Glitters had to be smiling inside. After all, Deputy Glitters seemed to relish a front running style he had put on display in Florida at Tampa Bay Downs. His pedigree being slanted towards speed, the off track would compliment his running style. Things did not go as planned, though, as Deputy Glitters tired badly in the stretch to finish a well beaten sixth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, 17 lengths behind the winner Bob And John. Deputy Glitters earned a mere $3,750 for his efforts, bringing his graded stakes earnings total to $163,750. This amount may or may not be enough to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Update 1 Deputy Glitters, trained by Thomas Albertrani, battled Bluegrass Cat in the Sam F. Davis, February 18, and then in the Tampa Bay Derby, March 18, both at Tampa Bay Downs, Florida. Bluegrass Cat struggled to defeat Deputy Glitters in the Sam F. Davis, and Deputy Glitters turned the tables on Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby with a powerful, stalking effort. Deputy Glitters finished second at odds of 63 to 1 in the Sam F. Davis, and won at odds of 8 to 1 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa Bay Downs is not a usual stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner, Sun King, finished fifteenth in the Kentucky Derby. Prior to the Sam F. Davis, Deputy Glitter's best performance in a stakes was a modest fifth place finish, beaten 5 ¾ lengths, in the Huntington Stakes at Aqueduct, November 13, 2005. The Sam F. Davis seemed a reasonable alternative to the more difficult 3-year-old Derby preps, although the talented Bluegrass Cat was attracted for the same reasons. As it transpired, Bluegrass Cat went on to set a stakes record in winning the Sam F. Davis, and it was thought Bluegrass Cat would have an easy time of it in the Tampa Bay Derby, and in doing so claim the winner's share of a graded stakes purse. Nobody bothered to tell Thomas Albertrani and Deputy Glitters, though, and we now know the rest of the story. Deputy Glitters defeated Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby, and is headed to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, April 8. Pedigree The sire of Oh So Awesome is Awesome Again, an incredible stakes performer from 1997 to 1998. In those two years, Awesome Again won no less than six graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Travers (Saratoga) and the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic (Churchill Downs), both at 1 ¼ miles. The victims of Awesome Again form an impressive list. They include Silver Charm, Concerto, Swain, Tale Of The Cat, and Affirmed Success. I always thought Awesome Again was at his most devastating at a mile to a mile and one-eighth, and this is born out in his Dosage Index of 2.67. The sire of Awesome Again is Deputy Minister, making Oh So Awesome one of many grandsons of Deputy Minister on the Triple Crown trail this year, including Jazil and Bob And John. Oh So Awesome's dam is the Irish-bred Identify, a daughter of Persian Bold, a topflight turf sprinter. The pedigree of Identify is European influenced and strictly turf oriented. Oh So Awesome has been pointed towards the Belmont Stakes for some time now by the ownership, Team Valor. So far Oh So Awesome has seven overall starts, six on grass in France and a lone start in the States on dirt in the Match The Hatch Stakes at Belmont, May 19, 2006. He has raced at distances from one mile up to one and five-sixteenth miles, and he has one win, two seconds, and two thirds, one of those thirds in the Match The Hatch. Oh So Awesome has been carrying 126 to 128 pounds in allowance and handicap conditions in France. In his last two races before changing ownership to Team Valor, Oh so Awesome defeated 22 of the 23 horses he faced, and the distance for each of these two races was one and five-sixteenth miles. He finished fifth in his first start for Team Valor before shipping to the United States to be handled by James Jerkens. PLATINUM COUPLE DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Platinum Couple is a New York bred sired by Tale Of The Cat, a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat is one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners and counting. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Platinum Couple is inbred in the fifth generation on both sides to Northern Dancer, cementing the speed component of Platinum Couple's aptitude. Tale Of The Cat, Platinum Couple's sire, was himself a talented sprinter and was graded stakes placed in four races from 1997-1998, three of them at seven furlongs including a third to Affirmed Success in the 1998 Vosburgh. Yarn, the dam of Platinum Couple, is a daughter of Mr. Prospector, injecting even more speed into Platinum Couple's pedigree. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. In ten lifetime starts Platinum Couple has managed only two wins, both in New York State bred competition, and both as a Juvenile. One win came in a maiden allowance and the other in the Damon Runyon, a stakes for state breds. Platinum Couple spent the early months of his 3-year-old campaign chasing another better know New York bred, Achilles Of Troy. Platinum Couple was no match, finishing third and fourth in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway, a combined 30 lengths behind Achilles Of Troy, winner of both events. Following the Whirlaway, Platinum Couple managed a second in a state bred optional claimer and then went on to the Wood at Aqueduct. The Aqueduct track was sloppy for the Wood and Platinum Couple looked to capitalize on his speed but raced far back early, managing to close to fifth, beaten 10 ½ lengths by the Bob And John. All indications are Platinum Couple would be heavily outclassed in the Belmont, as he was in the Preakness where he earned a lackluster 78 Beyer.
SACRED LIGHT The sire of High Finance is Talk Is Money, yet another son of Deputy Minster who has sired a 2006 Triple Crown contender. Four grandsons of Deputy Minister raced in this year's Kentucky Derby: Jazil, Bob And John, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Simon Pure and High Finance, two more grandsons of Deputy Minister, join the fray for the Preakness. Two other successful stallions sired by Deputy Minister are Deputy Commander (one of the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005) and The Prime Minister (sire of Sinister Minister's dam Sweet Minister). High Finance is inbred to both Mr. Prospector (4th generation sire side and 3rd generation dam side) and Vice Regent (3rd generation sire side and 4th generation dam side). Mr. Prospector is one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as in classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, places Vice Regent (the other source of inbreeding in High Finance's pedigree) in the "Balanced Speed" category (for sires), the third of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Vice Regent also injects turf aptitude into the pedigree of High Finance. Update 1 New York based trainer Richard Violette trains High Finance for West Point Stable. Violette trained the 2003 New York bred Juvenile champion Read The Footnotes. The Belmont would be the sixth race for High Finance, and the first five were all as a 3-year-old. High Finance took four tries to graduate the maiden ranks but he ran into Showing Up and Bernardini along the way, so it is not a major concern. After dominating a maiden allowance field at Keeneland (in his fourth start) High Finance dispatched a first-level allowance group at Belmont and he did it in style, registering a final time of 1:34.8 for the one mile. If he enters the Belmont field High Finance will be stepping way up the class ladder, this after beating up on maidens and first-level allowance types. The Belmont is loaded with top level front runners and closers on a wide, sweeping Belmont course, so the job for High Finance becomes nearly impossible without more seasoning.
DOUBLE GALORE Update 1 Double Galore is not very well known in racing circles, even in California where it took him five attempts to clear the maiden ranks, which he finally did recently at Hollywood Park in a maiden allowance event at 1 1/16 miles on the main course. Double Galore has earned one win and one show in five starts, and in his four starts as a sophomore he has finished ahead of 16 of the 26 rivals he has faced, all maidens. His speed figures simply do not add up against his fellow Belmont Stakes rivals. He probably doesn't even belong at the bottom of the trifecta. Filling out the superfecta may be his manifest destiny. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here
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