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Update 2 The first stakes race for Sweetnorthernsaint was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by 10 lengths and it could have been more. Two races before that he won a $40,000 maiden claimer at Laurel by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his next race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, getting the six panels in 1:09. The salient point is that Sweetnorthernsaint has raced twice over the Laurel main course, which is right across the way and very similar in layout to Pimlico, the host track for the Preakness. Among the Kentucky Derby runners entered in the Preakness, Sweetnorthernsaint is the colt that can be associated most closely with home field advantage. Sweetnorthernsaint ran a reputable race in the Kentucky Derby, his seventh lifetime start, and after reaching contention faltered when straightening out for the drive. He ended up seventh, beaten 13 lengths by Barbaro. Sweetnorthernsaint did manage to beat 13 of his 19 opponents, not a bad effort. He ran the first three-quarters in 1:11.7 seconds, four lengths and a head off the lead, and proceeded to run the final one-half mile in 52.2, averaging a reasonable 26.1 seconds for the final two quarters. Sweetnorthernsaint crossed the wire in 2:03.9, not a winning time by any stretch but again, a reasonable time. The Preakness will be the fourth race in 14 weeks for Sweetnorthernsaint, which is not an overburden, and Michael Trombetta and Sweetnorthernsaint will feel very comfortable in the State of Maryland. Update 1 The map to the Kentucky Derby that Sweetnorthernsaint is following parallels the journey of his handler, Michael Trombetta. The 39-year-old Trombetta has been training horses for going on twenty years now and he has spent most of those years based in Maryland and Virginia. Not coincidentally, Sweetnorthernsaint made his debut at Colonial Downs in Virginia and moved on to Laurel in Maryland for his next race. Sweetnorthernsaint finished 12th in a field of 14 at Colonial Downs, but all racing at Colonial is on the turf and the race had little meaning for the future of Sweetnorthernsaint. His Laurel race hinted at what was to come, as he won a $40,000 maiden claimer by 16 lengths. In that race Sweetnorthernsaint was disqualified for boring in at the start, and maintained his maiden status, but not for long. In his third race Sweetnorthernsaint demoralized a maiden allowance field at Aqueduct on the inner dirt, stopping the watch at 1:09 for the six furlongs. His first stakes was the Miracle Wood at Laurel, February 4, and Sweetnorthernsaint won it by an ever widening 10 lengths. Now it was time for a graded stakes, and Trombetta readied his charge for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Here Sweetnorthernsaint faced off with fellow Derby aspirants Achilles of Troy and Keyed Entry, but it was a 36 to 1 outsider by the name of Like Now who stole the spotlight from the principals. Sweetnorthernsaint availed himself nicely, though, traveling 3-wide the entire race and persevering to a hard earned third place finish, less than a length beaten by the winner Like Now, and only ½ length shy of runner-up Keyed Entry. No one knew how much the Gotham took out of Sweetnorthernsaint, but three weeks later he climbed back in the ring to take on Cause To Believe and My Golden Song in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, with $500,000 in prize money at stake. Sweetnorthernsaint needed to finish second or better to earn enough to secure a position in the top 20 graded stakes earners among Triple Crown nominees. Sweetnorthernsaint cruised to victory in the Illinois Derby, finishing 9 ¼ lengths clear of runner-up and pacesetter Mister Triester. Cause to Believe ran third, another length back, and My Golden Song finished a well-beaten seventh. Not only did Sweetnorthernsaint capture the lion's share of the purse money, but he seemed to levitate to another level in the Illinois Derby. Next stop, Louisville. SIMON PURE Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.75. Silver Deputy, a son of Deputy Minister, is the sire of Simon Pure. Silver Deputy ranked 20th on the earnings list for North American sires in 2005, with Badge Of Silver his chief earner that year. Pool Land and Gasia are two of his highest earners to-date in 2006. The champion Silverbulletday is Silver Deputy's highest lifetime earner. Four grandsons of Deputy Minister raced in this year's Kentucky Derby: Jazil, Bob And John, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Simon Pure, yet another grandson of Deputy Minister, joins the fray for the Preakness. The sire line of Deputy Minister is Northern Dancer. Other successful sons of Deputy Minister are Deputy Commander (one of the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005) and The Prime Minister (sire of Sinister Minister's dam Sweet Minister). Life's Magic is the dam of Simon Pure, and she was a brilliant racehorse during the years from 1983 to 1985, the Breeders Cup Distaff winner in 1985 at 1 ¼ miles, and graded stakes placed an astonishing 24 times. The sire of Life's Magic is Cox's Ridge, a descendant of the Turn-To line, and a great source of stamina aptitude. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 & Update 1 Simon Pure is bred up and down to be a champion, and he is now getting the hands on attention of hall of fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Lukas has consolidated his stable to Kentucky and he is entering the twilight of possibly the finest career in thoroughbred training history. Simon Pure made his career debut as a 3-year-old and not as a juvenile, finishing second to Record in a Santa Anita maiden allowance in February 2006. Record has gone on to win the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs for handler Bob Baffert. Simon Pure returned four weeks later to capture a maiden allowance by four lengths over Film Fortune, another up and coming youngster. Lukas must have felt he had something special, because he entered Simon Pure in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes 16 days later against the likes of A. P. Warrior, Point Determined, and Bob And John. It was too much too soon for the talented son of Silver Deputy, fading to seventh (and beaten 11 lengths) after showing good speed for three-quarters. Lukas came back with Simon Pure in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby in April, this time taking on Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer on their home turf. Simon Pure ran a very important race in the Arkansas Derby, allowed to settle under Jon Court, moving four wide into the lane to get within about five lengths, before flattening out a little in the drive, to finish a respectable fourth beaten 11 ½ lengths by Lawyer Ron. In the Arkansas Derby Simon Pure learned to rate and gained valuable experience he can now put to use in the Preakness at Pimlico. With only four races under his belt, Simon Pure has yet to hit his stride, and with Lukas at the controls that day will come sooner than later. Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Point Determined is sired by Point Given, a son of Thunder Gulch. The sire line of Point Given is Raise A Native. The sire of Update 2 Point Determined punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a determined runner-up finish to probable Derby favorite Brother Derek in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Although Point Determined finished within 3 ¼ lengths of Brother Derek, onlookers had the impression the margin could have been as big as Brother Derek's jockey Alex Solis wanted it to be. Brother Derek set every fraction and threw a 24 second quarter at the field from the six furlong mark to the one mile mark, and it was all over but for the shouting. The final time of the race for the winner was an impressive 1:48 flat for the 1 1/8 miles. With only six lifetime starts now, Point Determined is still eligible to improve by the first Saturday in May, but he is going to have to come a long way to get past his nemesis Brother Derek. Point Determined has five lifetime starts, three of them in 2006. The most recent was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Saturday, March 18. The San Felipe marked the return to championship form of the talented A. P. Warrior, but Point Determined challenged for the win in deep stretch, eventually settling for a hard fought second, one-half length back of the winner (A. P. Warrior). I witnessed the San Felipe and was impressed with the fighting spirit of Point Determined. With his first graded stakes earnings safely in his pocket, Point Determined is officially on the Derby trail. Next up for Point Determined is the Santa Anita Derby, April 8, at Santa Anita Park. The Santa Anita Derby is going to be a premier Kentucky Derby prep in 2006, hosting the talented Brother Derek, A. P. Warrior, and Point Determined. CHURCHILL MEET OPENS APRIL 29 &
BROTHER DEREK Dan Hendricks didn't help Brother Derek's Derby chances when he selected the 18th post position when post position 3 was still available. I would like to volunteer to teach a geometry class for trainers, to teach them how much ground and time are lost by racing on the far outside in a two-turn race. Brother Derek raced six wide around the first turn and into the backstretch, moved out even wider when the field bunched nearing the end of the backstretch, had to be steadied twice, fanned out nine abreast when making a run into upper stretch, and finished evenly in a dead heat with Jazil for fourth, 9 ½ lengths behind the winner Barbaro. Brother Derek managed to get three-quarters in 1:12.2, and posted his final one-half mile in 50.9, a minor miracle considering all the traffic hazards he encountered along the way. The Preakness will be only the fourth start in four months (120 days) for Brother Derek so fatigue should not be an issue. Considering he has won so many races void of early pace he should be even more rested for the Preakness. The flip side is that the Preakness is going to be loaded with speed and Brother Derek is going to have to deal with it head on, but you can bet your bottom dollar he won't be nine wide turning for home. Brother Derek has to be considered one of the leading contenders in the Preakness, and he will be heard from. Update 3 Sometimes numbers relay a story better than words. For example, the numbers 23.60, 46.59, 1:11.21, 1:35.39, and 1:48.00 tell you everything you need to know about the Santa Anita Derby, Saturday, April 8. Brother Derek set every one of those fractions, and in doing so stamped himself the undeniable pre-Derby favorite. Take a closer at those numbers. The difference between 1:11.21 and 1:35.39 represents the 24 second quarter Brother Derek threw at the rest of the field from the six furlong marker to the mile marker. Now look at the final two numbers, 1:35.39 and 1:48.00. They represent the 12 3/5 seconds Brother Derek took to "cruise" the final eighth of a mile. Brother Derek was actually geared down by rider Solis for most of the final eighth. Now take a look at the last number, 1:48.00. That is how long it took Brother Derek to negotiate the entire 1 1/8 miles of the Santa Anita Derby. That is a demoralizing number for the rest of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Update 2 Brother Derek triumphed in the Grade 2 Santa Catalina Saturday, March 4, and he did it in a professional manner, patiently anticipating the cue from his rider Alex Solis that would be his signal to take control. Brother Derek did just that, taking control, and cruising to a definitive victory in just under 1:42 flat for the 1 Update 1 Dan Hendricks is beloved in the Southern California region and beyond for his courage and clever wit. Hendricks is paralyzed from the waist down as a result of a motocross accident in the summer of 2004. A mere six weeks after the accident Hendricks returned to his Del Mar barn to resume training. Brother Derek would be his first Kentucky Derby starter. Fourth place finisher in the 2005 Breeders Cup Juvenile, Brother Derek was a mere footnote on the list of Derby hopefuls at that time. Brother Derek served notice seven weeks later (December 17, 2005) by winning the Hollywood Futurity. And in his 2006 campaign debut, Brother Derek defeated the two-year-old champion Stevie Wonderboy in the Grade 1 San Raphael at Santa Anita. Now Brother Derek is considered a leading contender and possible favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and who doth protest? Well, I do, as a matter of fact. Make no mistake, Brother Derek is a leading contender, but he has some limitations. His strength is a superior front-running style, and that style is tenuous at best in the Kentucky Derby. Also, the San Raphael set up like a training race for him as there was no other speed to think of. He could bide his time and save his strength for the stretch challenge sure to come from Stevie Wonderboy. But which Stevie Wonderboy showed up? Wonderboy was only days away from surgery to correct a condylar fracture and his performance was sub par, indicating to me he may have been suffering already. Andy Beyer awarded inflated speed figures to both Brother Derek and Stevie Wonderboy for the San Raphael, and when Beyer does that he renders his vaunted speed figures valueless. Brother Derek is probably at his best from one mile to one and one-sixteenth miles, and should he be challenged early in the Derby he will probably not be able to sustain his bid. BOB AND JOHN Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. The sire of Bob And John is Seeking The Gold. The sire of Seeking The Gold is Mr. Prospector, and the sire line of The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Bob And John's sire Seeking The Gold hails from the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line, and like the Northern Dancer line this is one of the most prodigious in North American breeding history. The AWD on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Seeking The Gold's progeny is 7.85 furlongs, a nondescript figure and not what you would like to see for a classic contender. Other sons & daughters of Seeking The Gold include Seeking the Ante, winner of the 2005 Grade 2 Nassau County Breeders Cup, and Pleasant Home, winner of the 2005 Grade 1 Emirates Airline Breeders Cup Distaff. Update 3 Bob And John was exposed in the Derby as a colt unprepared to take on a classic field at a classic distance. That is not to say Bob And John is capable of a swift turn of foot good enough to dominate stakes level competition. But he is in the midst of a challenging Triple Crown campaign and the reality is beginning to dawn on Bob Baffert (trainer) and Stonerside Stable (owner). In the Kentucky Derby, Bob And John broke forwardly from the seventh post position under careful handling from rider Garret Gomez but simply was not up to the task. He got the first three-quarters in about 1:13.3 (already back to 16th), and closed out the last half mile in roughly 54.3, finishing a thoroughly beaten 17th of 20. Bob And John would certainly improve at Pimlico off his Derby performance, but not enough to figure prominently in the outcome. Barbaro is returning, along with Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint, and then there are the newcomers Like Now, Bernardini, and Simon Pure. All of these colts possess ample portions of potent speed, and Bob And John is going to be up against it if he takes them on in the Preakness. Update 2 No one can blame Bob And John for the Saturday morning showers that drenched the outer dirt course at Aqueduct, Saturday, April 8. Bob And John took the trip to New York from California to show the best of the East Coast his "A" game, and that's exactly what he did in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, sloppy track and all. Bob And John seemed to relish the off going as he sped effortlessly to the outside of the early leaders Keyed Entry and Marco's Tale, and commenced to hounding Keyed Entry all the way to the middle of the far turn, shaking loose of the rest of the field in the process. Rider Garrett Gomez asked for run from Bob And John in early stretch, and Bob And John responded and wore down Keyed Entry late, finishing with good energy to hold off the late closing Jazil for the victory. The final time for the 1 1/8 miles of the Wood, in the slop, was 1:51.40. Bob And John got the final furlong in 14 seconds flat, not a strong figure, but good enough for the win. What are the implications of the victory? First and foremost, Bob And John earns $450,000 in graded stakes prize money to add on to the $140,370 he previously earned. That, in a nutshell, punches his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Second, the manner in which Bob And John fought and faced down Keyed Entry, Deputy Glitters, My Golden Song, and Greeley's Galaxy, and then held off the late charging Jazil, is a testimony to his talent, courage, and the preparation he received from handler Bob Baffert. Third, unless the track at Churchill Downs comes up sloppy on May 6, there is not much to project from his performance in the Wood to his anticipated performance in the Kentucky Derby. That is the nature of racing, but Bob And John is heading to Louisville, and getting there is half the battle. Update 1 Bob And John is trained by Bob Baffert, no stranger to the Kentucky Derby spotlight. It is worth mentioning that Bob Baffert has been amazing in the Kentucky Derby, having trained three winners, one second place finisher and two third place finishers in the period from 1996 to 2002. Bob And John has been successful almost from the beginning, with three wins, one place, and two shows in seven starts heading into the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, at Santa Anita Park. We'll get back to the San Felipe in a moment. Bob And John has raced exclusively at the three major Southern California tracks, Del Mar, Hollywood Park, and Santa Anita. In just the second start of his inaugural campaign Bob And John served notice he was a talent to be reckoned with, ridden out in victory after toying with a maiden allowance field at Del Mar. Two months later, Bob And John met A. P. Warrior and Da Stoops in a talent laden first-level allowance, a two-turn mile, finishing second four lengths shy of the winner A. P. Warrior and a neck in front of stable mate Da Stoops. In the Real Quiet, three weeks later at Hollywood, Bob And John apparently won but was disqualified in a ridiculous steward's ruling and placed second behind the unofficial second place finisher Genre. Bob And John came in slightly exiting the far turn, momentarily impeding Genre, who was already beginning to back up and would eventually finish six lengths to the worse of Bob And John. In December, Bob And John met Kentucky Derby aspirant Brother Derek for the first time in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at Hollywood Park. It was in the Futurity that Brother Derek stamped his name at the top of the short list of West Coast Derby hopefuls, while Bob And John was relegated to a quiet third place finish, beaten five lengths, but getting his first taste of graded stakes earnings. After reasserting himself by clearing first-level allowance conditions in January 2006, his 3-year-old debut, Bob And John turned his attention to the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita, where rival Brother Derek was noticeably absent. Bob And John routed a questionable Sham field, nonetheless recording a healthy speed figure, and moved on to the Grade 2 San Felipe, March 18, also at Santa Anita. Now we can get back to the San Felipe. Bob And John received favoritism from the betting public, but failed to menace as he seemed one-paced the entire going, eventually working his way to a third place finish, but soundly beaten by the top two finishers, A. P. Warrior and Point Determined. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here LIKE NOW Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 3.40. Like Now is sired by Jules, a son of Forty Niner. The sire line of Jules is Raise A Native. The sire of Jules John Dillon (owner) and Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) made the right decision to hold Like Now out of the Kentucky Derby and point him towards the Preakness. Had he run in the Derby they would still be scraping him off the ground from getting run over by the other 19 horses. Enough said. Like Now is perfectly suited for the speed biased Pimlico main course. Remember, Like Now used his brilliant speed to steal the Grade 3 Gotham over the speed favoring inner dirt course at Aqueduct, holding off Keyed Entry and Sweetnorthernsaint in the process, and he stands a much better chance in the Preakness than he would have had in the Derby. That said, the more speed entered against him the less likely he is to do well in the Preakness. With Bernardini, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Simon Pure scheduled to run, not to mention Barbaro, Like Now will have a small mountain to climb to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Update 2 Like Now earned $65,000 for his second place finish in the Grade 2 Lexingon Stakes at Keeneland , Saturday, April 22. Together with the $120,000 from the Grade 3 Gotham victory, Like Now has $185,00 in graded stakes earnings, good enough for 17th place on the earnings list and an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. Under the careful handling of rider Fernando Jara (replacement for the injured J. R. Velazquez), Like Now sparred with Fast Parade in the early going of the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes, and after disposing of that one alternated leads with long shot Bear Character in early stretch. Like Now was tackled by eventual winner Showing Up in deep stretch and managed to save the place. In the aftermath of the Lexington, the connections of Like Now are hesitant to announce a Kentucky Derby committment. Realistically, Like Now has little or no chance to win in the Derby. The limitations of the pedigree, coupled with the strength of the anticipated Derby field, are simply too high a mountain to climb for Like Now. Update 1 The influence of speed in the pedigree of Like Now is evident on the track in dramatic fashion, and Like Now used his inherited speed to separate himself from the rest of the Grade 3 Gotham field, Saturday, March 18, at Aqueduct, holding just enough in reserve to repel the late challenge from Keyed Entry (Todd Pletcher). The result was a first place paycheck in a graded stakes, and a huge upset at odds of better than 36 to 1. Kiaran McLaughlin, a one-time Lukas assistant, handles Like Now for owner John J. Dillon, and owner and trainer must realize that the same strengths Like Now exhibited in winning the Gotham are going to be exposed as weaknesses at the classic distances (the Gotham was 1 1/16 miles) against the best 3-year-olds in the country. For now, though, for the connections of Like Now, it is time to savor the taste of victory. Pedigree DOSAGE INDEX 1.81. The sire of Barbaro is Dynaformer, known as a prodigious sire of turf specialists. Dynaformer has managed to sire Dynever and Mystery Giver, two superior dirt runners. Barbaro's dam is La Ville Rouge. Barbaro is only her second foal to race. With maternal grandsire Carson City, Barbaro's pedigree on the dam side is heavily slanted towards speed, although the sire line of Turn-To injects much needed stamina into Barbaro's pedigree. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here Horse racing writers almost to a man (and woman) railed on about the five weeks Barbaro did not race before the Kentucky Derby. There were exactly 35 days between Barbaro's previous race, the Florida Derby (April 1), and the Kentucky Derby (May 6). Michael Matz chose to prepare Barbaro without a race during that period, and the media "alerted" everyone to the dangers of that strategy, citing the " . . . hasn't been done since Needles did it in 1956 . . . " mantra. The shortest wait between races for a Derby horse this year was 14 days for Showing Up, and the longest wait was the 35 days for Barbaro and Flashy Bull. On dirt, layoffs for top caliber horses are not a concern unless they fall inside the 60 to 100 day range. This is a statistical fact I discovered analyzing literally tens of thousands of races over a twenty-three year period, and is documented in my book "Horse Race Handicapping For The 21st Century," not an easy read, I might add. It makes perfect sense if you think about this way: A horse that has not raced in 80 days and is entered on the 81st day has taken too long a break for a horse in top physical condition, because he would have raced well before the 81st day. On the other hand, 81 days is not enough time to correct a debilitating physical condition and prepare a horse to compete at the top level. The 35-day layoff Barbaro experienced is a perfectly acceptable latent period for a top level performer with a top level handler like Matz. It is well under the 60-day layoff that would send a warning signal to the handicapper. The Needles factor is more a "factoid" than a "factor," with no statistical bearing whatsoever. "Well, now the table's turned, isn't it?" Matz said a day after the Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby. "That's what we were planning for with the five weeks' rest. It looks like we made the right plan." Another problem occurs when a horse comes back too soon to race again. On dirt, that period is 8 days or less. The Preakness is only 14 days after the Kentucky Derby, but it is long enough to recover, and it should not pose a problem except for "over-campaigned" horses. This would tend to include only one Derby horse, Lawyer Ron, with 15 starts since the summer of 2005 and no siginificant break. The "wear and tear" factor would have come into play for Lawyer Ron in the Preakness with only a 14 day rest after a gruelling campaign, but his connections have withdrawn him from consideration for the Preakness. Meanwhile, thanks to Michael Matz, Barbaro has just six overall starts, and the Preakness will be only his third start in 49 days, his second in 14 days, and he looks to be in superb physical condition. How will Barbaro do in the Preakness? He should be the top choice, but there is no guarantee of a win. Not one of the Preakness horses that ran in the Derby has ever raced at Pimlico. Sweetnorthernsaint comes closest, with two races on the Laurel main course, and Barbaro has one race over the Laurel turf. Sweetnorthernsaint has somewhat of a "home field advantage" having spent time training and racing in Maryland. The Pimlico factor is a big unknown, casting a shadow over the Churchill Downs performances, which have little bearing on the Preakness. The Pimlico course is much friendlier to front runners than Churchill Downs, and the Preakness is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro will be the justifiable favorite, but the uncertainty of the Pimlico effect introduces unwanted variance into the equation. Ulimately, the proof is in the pudding. Update 2 In witnessing the Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 1, at Gulfstream Park, I knew I was seeing a brilliantly prepared colt in Barbaro. His ears were pricked, his coat was shining in the sunlight, and his muscles were taught with strength. Barbaro overcame the handicap of the 10th post position by using his speed to secure a good position on the first turn. He stalked the determined leader Sharp Humor, reached even terms on the far turn, and engaged the leader in a prolonged stretch duel, wearing down Sharp Humor only late in the proceedings, and posting a ½ length victory over Sharp Humor, with Sunriver another 3 lengths back. Barbaro reached the wire in 1:49.01, a good time to be sure considering the difficulty an extreme outside post poses in a two-turn route at Gulfstream Park. The winner's share of the Florida Derby prize money secures Barbaro an invitation to the big dance in Kentucky, and he will go there undefeated, a perfect 5 wins in 5 starts. Barbaro also proved to his detractors that a dry dirt surface is no problem at all. Is there any downside, is the glass half empty? The maternal grandsire of Barbaro is Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector) and the progeny of Carson City are heavily slanted towards speed. This could pose a problem down the road in the Belmont, run at 1 ½ miles. Carson City accounts for only a quarter of the pedigree of Barbaro, and the speed he injects into the pedigree could mix a perfect cocktail of ¾ stamina and ¼ speed for the Kentucky Derby. Michael Matz has to be thrilled with the outlook for his charge going into the weeks leading up to the Derby. Update 1 This fellow opened eyes in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park in winning his fourth race in four starts for trainer Michael Matz, the Holy Bull being the first race on dirt, albeit sloppy, for Barbaro. The field for the Holy Bull was only typical Grade 3 competition, but it is nice to see Barbaro continue his streak. If he is to prove his mettle as a Derby hopeful, he needs to take on tougher competition. Michael Matz trains Barbaro, and Matz has devoted his life to horses. He is a record setting show jumping rider, a three time Olympian, and won the U. S. Equestrian Team (USET) Show Jumping Championship a record six times. Matz has in recent years turned his attention to training thoroughbreds. At least until the Florida Derby, April 1, Barbaro will not have raced on a dry dirt surface (the Holy Bull was run over a sloppy Gulfstream track), so we need to see how he handles it before coming to any conclusions about his chances in the Derby. DOSAGE INDEX 3.31. Bernardini is a son of the topflight sire A. P. Indy. A. P. Indy progeny win an outstanding 15% of open stakes at the classic distances. A. P. Indy is the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. A. P. Indy was the #1 North American sire of SW (Stakes Winners) in 2004. A. P. Indy was the North American leading sire of 2003. Some of the illustrious sons & daughters of A. P. Indy are A. P. Warrior, Teammate, Sweet Symphony, Congrats, Mineshaft, Suave, Aptitude, Seeking the Glory, and Sweet Symphony. Bernardini is a very close relation to A. P. Warrior. They are half-brothers by virtue of their common father, A. P. Indy. And they are inbred on their maternal side, both with broodmare sire Quiet American. Cara Rafaela, a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of Bernardini. Warrior Queen, also a daughter of Quiet American, is the dam of A. P. Warrior. In a manner of speaking, Bernardini and A. P. Warrior are three-quarter brothers, and both possess excellent aptitude for the classics. Update 1 Thomas Albertrani trains horses for Darley Stables, the U. S. based arm of world renowned Godolphin Racing, Inc. Although Discreet Cat is the up and coming star of Godolphin, Bernardini is a formiddable talent in his own right. The Grade 3 Withers was the final graded stakes for 3-year-olds prior to the Kentucky Derby, and it drew a short field of four including Bernardini, Doc Cheny (Nick Zito), Rob'em Blind (Gary Contessa), and the favorite Luxembourg (Richard Dutrow, Jr.). Bernardini was coming in off a scintillating maiden allowance victory at Gulfsteam Park which he won ridden out in 1:35.4. The Withers was only the third overall start for Bernardini, the first being a fourth place finish to the fleet Exclusive Quality. In the Withers, Bernardini sat pretty off the pace setter Luxembourg and moved by at will, coasting to victory in 1:35.1 for the one mile. Generally, A. P. Indy progeny are excellent at the classic distances, but Pimlico with its speed bias is a strange beast and it remains to be seen how Bernardini will handle the course. All indications are the up and coming young colt is going to be one of the main contenders in the Preakness. HIGH FINANCE DOSAGE INDEX 4.00. The sire of High Finance is Talk Is Money, yet another son of Deputy Minster who has sired a 2006 Triple Crown contender. Four grandsons of Deputy Minister raced in this year's Kentucky Derby: Jazil, Bob And John, Private Vow, and Deputy Glitters. Simon Pure and High Finance, two more grandsons of Deputy Minister, join the fray for the Preakness. Two other successful stallions sired by Deputy Minister are Deputy Commander (one of the world's leading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-crop sires of 2003-2005) and The Prime Minister (sire of Sinister Minister's dam Sweet Minister). High Finance is inbred to both Mr. Prospector (4th generation sire side and 3rd generation dam side) and Vice Regent (3rd generation sire side and 4th generation dam side). Mr. Prospector is one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as in classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, places Vice Regent (the other source of inbreeding in High Finance's pedigree) in the "Balanced Speed" category (for sires), the third of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Vice Regent also injects turf aptitude into the pedigree of High Finance. Update 1 New York based trainer Richard Violette trains High Finance for West Point Stable. Violette trained the 2003 New York bred Juvenile champion Read The Footnotes. The Preakness would be the sixth race for High Finance, and the first five were all as a 3-year-old. High Finance took four tries to graduate the maiden ranks but he ran into Showing Up and Bernardini along the way, so it is not a major concern. After dominating a maiden allowance field at Keeneland (in his fourth start) High Finance dispatched a first-level allowance group at Belmont and he did it in style, registering a final time of 1:34.8 for the one mile. If he enters the Preakness field High Finance will be stepping way up the class ladder, this after beating up on maidens and first-level allowance types. The Preakness is loaded with top level front runners on a speed biased Pimlico course, so the job for High Finance becomes nearly impossible without more seasoning. LAWYER RON DOSAGE INDEX 4.14. Sired by Langfuhr, the Canadian champion sprinter of 1996, Lawyer Ron is exhibiting the brilliant turn of foot his daddy flashed in winning the Grade 1 Vosburgh, the Grade 2 Forego, and the Metropolitan and Carter Handicaps. Normally these types of bloodlines are more of a hinder than an asset in the Kentucky Derby. But these are different times, and many recent Derbies have been captured by colts who do not fit the traditional mold. The dam's sire line of Turn-To contributes stamina to the pedigree of Lawyer Ron, but this influence is overshadowed by the predominance of speed in the bloodlines. The wear and tear is finally beginning to show on Lawyer Ron, as the Derby ended his brilliant winning streak at six (seven on dirt). The Preakness would be Lawyer Ron's seventh race in 19 weeks, and at this level of competition, that's really pushing the envelope. Not to say that Lawyer Ron can't rebound on the speed biased Pimlico course, but Lawyer Ron was never really close in the Derby, wilting to twelfth and beaten a demonstrative 22 lengths by Barbaro. Robert Holthus may give us some clues in the coming days as to Lawyer Ron's reace readiness, but the tough grind is catching up with him to be sure. Update 3 We are getting really tired of repeating "Wow!" when referring to the exploits of Lawyer Ron, so perhaps this is a good time to wax philosophical about the exciting colt. First things first, it is fair to say that the Dosage Index of 4.14 assigned to Lawyer Ron is probably biased against him, ignoring positive influences in his pedigree. For instance, his maternal second sire Lord Avie has a Dosage Index of 3.47 and a total of 38 Dosage Points compared to only 18 for Lawyer Ron. Langfuhr, the sire of Lawyer Ron, has a Dosage Index of 2.58 with a total of 34 Dosage Points. The Dosage Points are important because they indicate representation of the "Chefs-de-Race" in the pedigree. If a horse like Lawyer Ron is winning graded stakes with ease, and the points are not there, then either the pedigree is not strong and the horse is a "freak of nature," or more likely, new "Chefs-de-Race" need to be designated to fill in the gaps. I think that is what has happened with Lawyer Ron, but only to a degree. Getting away from philosophy and back to the track, Lawyer Ron made his patented accelerating, emphatic move to get to the front of the pack in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, not unlike what Brother Derek did in the Santa Anita Derby, and Lawyer Ron registered a (third) quarter in 24 and 2/5 seconds to get six furlongs in a blistering 1:10 and 4/5. Lawyer Ron continued with a (fourth) quarter in 26 and 4/5 to get a mile in 1:37 and 3/5, assuming complete control of the Arkansas Derby. Oaklawn Park fractions cannot be compared on the same scale as Santa Anita, so do not make the mistake of comparing Lawyer Ron's fractions with Brother Derek's. However, you would be correct to assume that Lawyer Ron was tiring in the late going, getting the final eighth of a mile in a modest 13 and 3/5 seconds. What does all this mean? First, the pedigree of Lawyer Ron is better then meets the eye. Second, the mile and one-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby is going to tax Lawyer Ron like he has never been taxed before. And third, he must be considered one of the top two or three prospects going into the Derby. Update 2 Wow! I'd like to say that again. Wow! Lawyer Ron put an exclamation point on his Kentucky Derby aspirations with an emphatic victory in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Saturday, March 18. This was a strong Grade 3 field, which included Steppenwolfer, Private Vow, and the underrated Red Raymond. Lawyer Ron put a move on the field in the far turn that left the rest gasping for breath. Rider John McKee was along for the ride that culminated in a three length margin over Red Raymond in a nifty 1:44 flat. Update 1 Bob Holthus trains Lawyer Ron, and his charge began his career by simply blowing away the competition. Lawyer Ron really opened eyes when he won the Grade 3 Risen Star at Louisiana Downs, and did so easily with a pretty big figure. Next was the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Lawyer Ron wired the field in the two-turn mile Southwest at Oaklawn Park Saturday, February 25, in a time of 1:40 flat. An all-night rain had softened the main course and by race time it was beginning to dry out, with some of the moisture getting packed in, so the final time of 1:40 is probably pretty good. Steppenwolfer ran a strong closing second and caught me eye as well. I'd say Robert Holthus is satisfied with the progress of Lawyer Ron. HEMINGWAY'S KEY DOSAGE INDEX 1.40. Notebook, now deceased, is the sire of Hemingway's Key, and did his absolute best running at one mile. Notebook sired 44 stakes winners, including the filly Spoken Fur (winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont in 2003) and the superior sprinter Delaware Township. Notebook is the son of Well Decorated, and represents one of the last successful lines of the Bold Ruler sires. Island Whirl is the broodmare sire of Hemingway's Key, and Island Whirl injects a blend of speed and stamina into the pedigree. Island Whirl won four graded stakes in 1982-1983, including the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Handicap at 1 ¼miles and the Grade 2 Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs. With regard to earnings, Island Whirl is a reasonable but not an elite stallion. The Hemingway's Key pedigree could be a limiting factor for distances at which he can expect to excel. Hemingway's Key has six overall starts and he has not come close to the winner's circle, except when being led back to the paddock, since he won a first-level allowance at Calder in December of 2005. Nick Zito has entered Hemingway's Key, consecutively, in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the Grade 2 Lane's End, and the Grade 2 Lexington. In those four graded stakes affairs, Hemingway's Key managed to finish ahead of just 11 of 40 horses. His Beyers were decidedly average and his best finish was sixth in the Lane's End. Hemingway's Key will probably do well in lesser quality stakes, and in Nick Zito's home base of New York. As far as the Preakness is concerned, the numbers just do not add up for the son of Notebook. LEWIS MICHAEL DOSAGE INDEX 2.13. The sire of Lewis Michael is Rahy, winner of the one mile Grade 2 Bel Air Handicap in 1989. Rahy is a highly successful stallion, having sired ten millionaires including Fantastic Light, Serena's Song, Hawksley Hill, and Tranquillity Lake. Fantastic Light is a two-time World Champion, winner of six Grade 1 events, and record breaking Breeders Cup Turf winner. Rahy is a superb progenitor of turf aptitude. Rahy is also the broodmare sire of the 2000 European champion Giant's Causeway. The broodmare sire of Lewis Michael is Broad Brush. Broad Brush, also the broodmare sire of Point Determined, was the leading North America sire of 1994, and he sired Concern, winner of the 1994 Breeders Cup Classic. Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, recently made Broad Brush a "Chef-de-Race" with an Intermediate-Classic designation, meaning he ranks among the better North American sires. The legendary Turn-To appears three times in the 5th generation of Lewis Michael's pedigree. This means Turn-To alone is responsible for nearly 10% of the pedigree of Lewis Michael. The Turn-To sire line instills superior stamina aptitude. Lewis Michael looks to be bred ideally for the longer distances, such as the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes. The Preakness would be the eighth overall start for Lewis Michael, and his handler Wayne Catalano is a "big fish in a small pond" at the Illinois tracks Hawthorne and Arlington Park, handling many horses for owner-breeder Frank Calabrese. Five of the seven starts for Lewis Michael have been on turf in order to capitalize on his superior turf breeding, and Lewis Michael has not disappointed, finishing third in the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby (Calder) and winning the Grand Canyon Handicap (Churchill Downs). The races on dirt for Lewis Michael include his debut, a maiden allowance win at Arlington Park at one mile, and more recently a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby (won by Sweetnorthernsaint). In the Illinois Derby, Lewis Michael stayed back early, made a brief move to reach contention in upper stretch, and eventually flattened out in the stretch to finish some twelve lengths back of the winner. Lewis Michael brings his patient running style to a Preakness loaded with front runners, and that will be his advantage. On the other hand, many of the front runners are blessed with superior speed that will endear them to the Pimlico course, and that could spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Lewis Michael. He is, though, a very interesting exotics candidate. DIABOLICAL DOSAGE INDEX 2.25. Artax is the sire of Diabolical. Artax was a terror on the race track from 1997 through 1999, winning no less than six graded stakes and placing in the money in another six. Ten of these twelve events were sprints at six or seven furlongs. Two critical sire lines in the pedigree of Artax are the Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native line and the Vice Regent line, and herein lies the source of Artax's great sprinting ability. Mr. Prospector is certainly one of history's top sires, a Classic Chef-de-Race, but his progeny fare equally well in racing's pinnacle sprint events as well as classic events. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. Bonnie Byerly is the dam of Diabolical. Bonnie Byerly's sire Dayjur is famous for dominating the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint only to lose to the filly Safely Kept in the final yards after jumping his own shadow. Dayjur injects even more sprinting aptitude into the pedigree of Diabolical. Diabolical is being brought along nicely by trainer Steve Kleasaris. In eight overall starts Diabolical has registered two wins, four seconds, and one third. His only out-of-the-money finish was a fourth in the Grade 3 Palm Beach (Gulfstream) on the grass. In his only other turf race Diabolical finished second to none other than Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro in the Laurel Futurity. Diabolical has excelled on the dirt. He won his debut easily, a 5 ½ panel dash at Belmont Park in July 2005. He then finished second in a pair of stakes at Monmouth, including the Grade 3 Sapling (won by He's Got Grit). In late October 2005 Diabolical got his first taste of big time racing in the one mile Grade 3 Nashua at Belmont Park, finishing a respectable third to Bluegrass Cat after setting all the early fractions. Diabolical was running to his pedigree, utilizing his superior speed for all it was worth. After the Laurel Futurity in November 2005 Diabolical was freshened for his sophomore campaign and made his 3-year-old debut in the Palm Beach on the grass, finishing fourth. Klesaris then focused Diabolical's campaign back to dirt racing, as Diabolical dueled with the talented Exclusive Quality in the Spectacular Bid sprint at Gulfstream, and finished a hard fought second to Exclusive Quality, stopping the clock in a scintillating 1:15.9 for the 6 ½ furlongs. Diabolical's eighth and most recent race was a one mile first-level allowance at Delaware Park which he simply dominated without breaking a sweat. The Preakness is going to be a far cry from that Delaware allowance, though, and although Diabolical is very fast and "speed kills," Diabolical is not the only one in possession of lethal speed. Jusk ask the connections of Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, Like Now, and Bernardini. Diabolical is in deep, but the same can be said for every horse in the 131st Preakness. GREELEY'S LEGACY DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Greeley's Legacy is sired by Mr. Greeley, a descendant of the prodigious and successful Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native sire line. Mr. Greeley was at his very best from seven furlongs to one mile. In 1995 he won two Grade 3 events at seven panels, the Lafayette and the Swale. Also in 1995 Mr. Greeley finished second in the one mile Grade 2 Jerome Handicap. To illustrate his versatility at distances up to a mile, we point out that Mr. Greeley ran second in the six furlong Breeders Cup Sprint (1995) behind Desert Stormer. Mr. Greeley's Dosage Index of 4.85 is a good indicator of the distance limitations he passed on to his son Greeley's Legacy. The dam of Greeley's Legacy is Deceit Princess, a daughter of Vice Regent out of Deceit. Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, places Vice Regent in the "Balanced Speed" category (for sires), the third of five categories with category one representing "Dominant Speed" and category five representing "Dominant Stamina." Vice Regent also injects turf aptitude into the pedigree of Greeley's Legacy. The pedigree of Greeley's Legacy suggests he is not suited to the distance requirements for the Triple Crown races, although the speed favoring Pimlico main course would even out the playing field to some extent. Greeley's Legacy has eleven overall starts, and the most recent three were all graded stakes: The Gotham (won by Like Now), the Wood (won by Bob And John) , and the Lexington (won by Showing Up). Although Greeley's Legacy finished a well beaten seventh in the Wood, the track was sloppy and the race can be tossed. The Gotham and Lexington were more promising, with a fourth place finish in each. In the Gotham Greeley's Legacy was never far back and closed on the rail to gain fourth, beaten only a length and a quarter by Like Now, with Keyed Entry and Sweetnorthernsaint sandwiched in between in second and third. The Gotham was the best race Greeley's Legacy has run to-date. In the Lexington, he broke from the tenth post position and stalked the leaders five wide, a tough proposition on the speed favoring Keeneland course, and flattened out in the stretch finishing fourth, beaten 4 ½ lengths by Showing Up. Like Now finished second and long shot Bear Character finished third. Finishing behind Bear Character in the Lexington is nothing to brag about, and Greeley's Legacy has never pretended to be a great horse. It took him six tries to graduate the maiden ranks, and even then he had to work hard to get the win. He did win an allowance optional claiming event at 1 1/16 miles on the Aqueduct inner dirt, a race more suited to his style and class than the graded stakes he has started in. The Preakness is loaded with front running talent, and in fact the front runners are the best horses in the field. This is very bad news for a patient stalker like Greeley's Legacy, because the speed has the look of holding up. Looking at the glass as half full, it will have been 28 days since Greeley's Legacy last raced, and he should be well prepared and well rested if his connections opt to run him in the Preakness. PLATINUM COUPLE DOSAGE INDEX 3.00. Platinum Couple is a New York bred sired by Tale Of The Cat, a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat is one of the most successful sires in modern times, producing 89 graded stakes winners and counting. The AWD (Average Winning Distance) on dirt, in North American open stakes, for Storm Cat's progeny is about 7 ½ furlongs, lower than one would like to see for a classic contender, and this pattern is evident in many of the descendants of Northern Dancer. Platinum Couple is inbred in the fifth generation on both sides to Northern Dancer, cementing the speed component of Platinum Couple's aptitude. Tale Of The Cat, Platinum Couple's sire, was himself a talented sprinter and was graded stakes placed in four races from 1997-1998, three of them at seven furlongs including a third to Affirmed Success in the 1998 Vosburgh. Yarn, the dam of Platinum Couple, is a daughter of Mr. Prospector, injecting even more speed into Platinum Couple's pedigree. Some famous sons of Mr. Prospector, now at stud, are Carson City, Crafty Prospector, Gone West, and Allen's Prospect, all champion sprinters. Also sired by Mr. Prospector are Forty Niner, Afleet (sire of Afleet Alex), and Gulch, champions more in the classic mode. In nine lifetime starts Platinum Couple has managed only two wins, both in New York State bred competition, and both as a Juvenile. One win came in a maiden allowance and the other in the Damon Runyon, a stakes for state breds. Platinum Couple spent the early months of his 3-year-old campaign chasing another better know New York bred, Achilles Of Troy. Platinum Couple was no match, finishing third and fourth in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway, a combined 30 lengths behind Achilles Of Troy, winner of both events. Following the Whirlaway, Platinum Couple managed a second in a state bred optional claimer and then went on to the Wood at Aqueduct. The Aqueduct track was sloppy for the Wood and Platinum Couple looked to capitalize on his speed but raced far back early, managing to close to fifth, beaten 10 ½ lengths by the Bob And John. All indications are Platinum Couple would be heavily outclassed in the 131st Preakness. AH DAY DOSAGE INDEX 3.57. The sire of the Maryland bred Ah Day is Malibu Moon, a son of A. P. Indy. Malibu Moon is a half-brother (paternal side) to Malibu Moonshine, a force on the Maryland circuit in 2005, winning the Miracle Wood, Private Terms, and Federico Tesio that year. A. P. Indy, the sire of Malibu Moon, was the #1 North American sire of GSW (Graded Stakes Winners) in 2005. The dam of Ah Day is Macoumba, a daughter of Mr. Prospector and a great-great-grandaughter of Swaps, a powerhouse on the Southern California circuit in 1955 and 1956. Ah Day is trained by King Leatherbury, a local legend in Maryland, and Ah Day would have to be supplemented for $100,000 too run in the Preakness. Ah Day won the most important stakes event for 3-year-olds at Pimlico, the Federico Tesio in April, at 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track. The level of competition in the Tesio was a far cry from what Ah Day would see in the Preakness, but he won the Tesio easily and that's all you can ask. Ah Day has four wins in eight overall starts, all of his starts in Maryland, and including the Tesio Ah Day has two wins and two seconds in stakes races. The best thing going for Ah Day is home field advantage, and he'll need it against the top caliber competition the Preakness has to offer in 2006. To Visit Us At HORSE-RACE-HANDICAPPING.COM click here
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